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Thread: New Coronavirus in China

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    When computing the death toll from Covid 19, there will be a lot of "indirect deaths" which should be added to the total.

    Hospitals in New York are advising people with "suspicious" lesions that they can't get biopsies for the foreseeable future, four weeks at least. I guarantee it will be a lot longer.

    Guess there's no point in going for my yearly mammogram in two weeks either. Why find out you have a suspicious mammogram when you can't get it biopsied and so you won't get treatment.

    This is the COVID 19 world.


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    The COVID-19 pandemic deepens the political crisis in Brazil:

    The 27 governors meet and a parallel power may emerge to Bolsonaro's chaos. The country's 27 governors will meet on Wednesday (25) at 4 pm by videoconference.

    They will discuss the actions they will take to tackle the coronavirus pandemic after Bolsonaro opened war on them and launched the country into chaos.

    May arisse a parallel power to the Presidency and the path of impeachment may begin, as governors control most of the seats of the federal parliamentary.

    The meeting takes place under an atmosphere of enormous tension. Bolsonaro attacked the governors and the measures they are adopting to fight the coronavirus pandemic in the statement of Tuesday night (24), when he called on the trade to resume its normal activity.

    He returned to the charge this Wednesday morning, at the gates of the Palácio do Alvorada, when he described the actions of the governors as “crime” and invited people to leave their homes.

    In a mid-morning videoconference meeting, he attacked the São Paulo governor, João Doria, in an unprecedented manner for the relations between a president and a state governor in the history of the Republic.

    From the pronouncement, the governors started an uprising against Bolsonaro, to the point that the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, a first-line ally and leader of Bolsonarism, broke with the president this morning.

    Governors have been reacting strongly to Bolsonaro in the past few hours.

    They are already starting to talk about impeachment. Governor Flávio Dino, from Maranhão, affirmed that “there is little hope that Bolsonaro can exercise the Presidency of the Republic responsibly and efficiently”.

    Santa Catarina's Carlos Moisés, from Bolsonaro's party (PSL), said he was “appalled”.

    The meeting, due to end in the late afternoon, promises to establish another pole of power can create the most serious political crisis in Brazil last years.


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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    I was aware of it late December. Taiwan activated emergency measures including their pandemic Control Center late December. It was in the intelligence briefing Jan 3. The genome was available mid January. This thread was started Jan 26. China border was closed Jan 26. We had plenty of warning. We were more interested in the optics than actually doing something about it. If China can be faulted for something is that it stopped all medical exports (masks, gloves, disinfectants, ventilators). That should teach us a lesson to never again be dependent for basic medical supplies and machinery on China or any other country.
    in hindsight, we've all been as negligent as China

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    2 members found this post helpful.
    People, do you want to know what is even worse than having a Covid-19 pandemic to fight against? It's when your country happens to be ruled by a bunch of people who all emulate a president who says something like this in an official speech before the entire nation's TV and who is insane enough to be consistently and repeatedly opposing and disdaining the very recommendations and rules that his own Health Ministry decided. IT'S UNBELIEVABLE AND SCARY!

    "[The media] spread the feeling of terror, having as their postcard the big number of dead people in Italy, a country with a large number of old people and a climate totally different from ours. The perfect scenario, empowered by the media, to make a real hysteria spread all over the country. [...] The virus has arrived, it's being fight back by us and will soon be gone. Our lives have to go on. The jobs have to be maintained. The earnings of families must be preserved. We do have to go back to normalcy. Certain few authorities of states and cities must steer away from the concept of scorched earth, the prohibition of transport, the closing of stores and the mass confinement."


    "In my particular case, due to my background as an athlete [???!!!??], if I were infected by the virus, I wouldn't need to worry: I would feel nothing, or I would undergo, if that, a little flu or a little cold, as that famous doctor of that famous TV channel once said" (WTF?!)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWsD...ature=youtu.be

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    People, do you want to know what is even worse than having a Covid-19 pandemic to fight against? It's when your country happens to be ruled by a bunch of people who all emulate a president who says something like this in an official speech before the entire nation's TV and who is insane enough to be consistently and repeatedly opposing and disdaining the very recommendations and rules that his own Health Ministry decided. IT'S UNBELIEVABLE AND SCARY!

    "[The media] spread the feeling of terror, having as their postcard the big number of dead people in Italy, a country with a large number of old people and a climate totally different from ours. The perfect scenario, empowered by the media, to make a real hysteria spread all over the country. [...] The virus has arrived, it's being fight back by us and will soon be gone. Our lives have to go on. The jobs have to be maintained. The earnings of families must be preserved. We do have to go back to normalcy. Certain few authorities of states and cities must steer away from the concept of scorched earth, the prohibition of transport, the closing of stores and the mass confinement."


    "In my particular case, due to my background as an athlete [???!!!??], if I were infected by the virus, I wouldn't need to worry: I would feel nothing, or I would undergo, if that, a little flu or a little cold, as that famous doctor of that famous TV channel once said" (WTF?!)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWsD...ature=youtu.be
    Yeah we are ruled by equally scary presidents. At least ours changed his tune if only briefly. Yours is incorrigible.

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    To date, there is no evidence that HIV is more risky for the coronavirus.

    Last week, the British HIV Association (BHIVA) - an organization representing healthcare professionals working in the UK in the field of HIV - released a statement regarding the coronavirus and HIV in where it was stated that, to date, there were no indications that determined that people with HIV were at greater risk of infection with the coronavirus (COVID-19) or suffering serious complications. They also recalled that the main mortality risk factors identified to date with COVID-19 are being older and having certain comorbidities, such as kidney problems or diabetes.

    On the other hand, people taking antiretroviral treatment and having a CD4 count of more than 500 cells / mm3 can expect their results to be similar to those of seronegative people with similar characteristics.


    http://iemakaie.es/2020/03/09/hasta-...l-coronavirus/

    If someone from New York reads this, don't let them use you as scapegoats because there is data to avoid being on that list where they have to exchange HIV for immunosuppressed. Don't let them mark you



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    Could the German low fatality rate be influenced not only by strict interpretation of what caused a death but by the large number of test administered? If you test a large number people with mild symptoms then the denominator of the fatality rate will be much larger, therefore the fatality rate would be much smaller. If you test only severe cases then the denominator will be much smaller.
    Last edited by bigsnake49; 26-03-20 at 00:27.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    Could the German low fatality rate be influenced not only by strict interpretation of what caused a death but by the large number of test administered. If you test a large number people with mild symptoms then the denominator of the fatality rate will be much larger, therefore the fatality rate would be much smaller. If you test only severe cases then the denominator will be much smaller.
    That's possible, but if Germany tests much more people with mild symptoms, then the number of cases per capita is surprisingly low compared to neighbouring countries.
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    Official position of the Federal Government of Brazil now voiced by the Vice President of the Republic and the Minister of Health. Did Bolsonaro have been informed of this ????

    “Increasingly isolated, after being criticized by almost all the governors, Jair Bolsonaro was disallowed by the Vice President, Hamilton Mourão, who defended social isolation in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. CNN journalist Daniela Lima reported that Mourão said the government's official position is social isolation and that Bolsonaro has expressed himself poorly. In a press conference what's happening now, the Minister of Health, Henrique Mandetta, also defended the isolation measure, which he called ‘bitter medicine’ ”.


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    Those infected in Germany are predominantly younger people. They do better.

    My post up thread about the spread from the ski resort in Austria provides some stats.

    They may not spend as much time with their grandparents, so it didn't spread into that more vulnerable population..

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    I was reading an article about the effects of 'stay home'

    vulnerable groups are also those who are connected with drugs,
    Especially cheap drugs,
    By the limited traffic, the most economically damaged groups are the 'cigarette smugglers' and 'pushers'
    the damage to smugglers, and drug dealers, as also the new economical crisis, is turning societies and young people to a tottaly different thinking.
    Last edited by Yetos; 26-03-20 at 12:10.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    Those infected in Germany are predominantly younger people. They do better.

    My post up thread about the spread from the ski resort in Austria provides some stats.

    They may not spend as much time with their grandparents, so it didn't spread into that more vulnerable population..
    It's time to change their reporting system as well. It's not helpful to say, well, once someone is dead there's no point in testing to see whether they had coronavirus, especially if they had known comorbidities.

    Yes, it's helpful, because we have to know how deadly it is; surely that should be clear.

    Meanwhile, patient zero in the British Isles may be a British man who went on a skiing trip to that Austrian resort mentioned above in late January, where he said he and his buddies spent a lot of time playing beer pong. You know, where you share the same ball to spit into some beer. Jeez, sounds like so much fun. I can't think why I never got into it. After all, why worry about germs; we have to build up immunities, right?

    In Australia, a wealthy couple who went to ski in Aspen Colorado finally took a test when they got back to Australia, and then, despite testing positive refused to self isolate and went to shops and gold courses. Another couple from that trip refused testing in Colorado, even though there were a lot of cases popping up, because if they tested positive they'd have to stop skiing. Poor babies, I mean who are these serfs trying to stop them from enjoying their lives?

    They put their daughters right back into private school through, despite the objections of the other parents.

    Nice, really nice.

    Meanwhile, in the U.K., 400,000 people have signed up to become National Health Service Volunteers.

    It takes all kinds, I guess. I'd do it here if I could, but there's no way they'd allow it.

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    1 members found this post helpful.


    Von der Leyen sends a message of support to Spain:

    "You are not alone"


    Thank you von der Leyen for this message of support and solidarity and for dedicating a few words to us in Spanish, our national and international language.
    Last edited by Carlos; 26-03-20 at 17:52.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carlos View Post


    Von der Leyen sends a message of support to Spain and its toilets:

    "You are not alone"


    Thank you von der Leyen for this message of support and solidarity and for dedicating a few words to us in Spanish, our national and international language.
    Hello Carlos.
    I think that you would like to say “health professionals” instead “toilets”.
    Nice video of support to the Spaniards.
    All things must pass and Spain will up stronger next the storm.
    Greetings.

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    I will link a video,
    it may contain political affairs
    Do not know if TRUE OR FAKE NEWS.
    but it is shocking,
    the image we do not want to see or live,

    if someone is political offended plz erase the post,
    my intension is the freak of corona, not politics

    https://www.instagram.com/p/B-I8OxnF9iG/?utm_source=ig_embed

    https://www.instagram.com/p/B-I8OxnF...ource=ig_embed


    PLZ
    stay at home,
    wash and sterilize as you can every food and package enters house,
    wash clothes if went outside with human traffic,
    Wear masks and gloves outside, And do not touch eyes mouth nose
    Avoid using cash money, they are the most dirty thing, if needed use gloves,
    wash and sterilize your car,
    clean or even change filters on air vendiltator system
    if you have ability cover even your eyes,
    KEEP 2,5-3 m DISTANCE from other people when outside

    those are primary obligations to our shelves,
    First we do this,

    and after we demand from others what should they do.

    also remember, it is detected on water even after urban wastewater treatment


    PS,
    AND YES I AM IN PANIC,
    everytime I go to market, or a doctor,
    and see people with no protection coming closer and laugh when you ask to keep distance,
    having father and mother above 80's, and the only person they see live being you,
    Yes I am in Panic
    cause I do not understand it,
    we all spend money to buy macaroni for 5 years,
    rice, flour, frozen food, toilet papper for 5 years, 50 litters of antiseptic, extra buckets of gasoline, long life milk,
    but did not spend 2-3 E to buy a package of 5 paint-protection masks,
    or a multiuse FFP2.
    Yes I am in Panic
    AND I AM IN FEAR
    a fear that maybe I attack someone, and have violent behavour,
    a fear that when I ask someone keep the distance he attacks me,
    a fear of goverment and for goverment,
    a fear that I forgot or I have not predict something,

    Lets all have our private time of thinking whishing and pray
    AND KEEP WALKING CALM

    Last edited by Yetos; 26-03-20 at 19:03.

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    Meanwhile our governor is directing all people coming to Florida from the Tri-State area (New York, NJ, Connecticut) to:
    1. Self isolate at their own expense
    2. Inform everybody in Florida they might have come in contact with for the past 21 days that they have come from a Covid-19 hotspot.

    He also directs all law enforcement officers to enforce the law.

    https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/upl...0/EO_20-82.pdf

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    New Coronavirus in China

    The economics of a pandemic: the case of Covid-19 - London Business School/Wheeler Institute of Business and Development:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/16L0...w?usp=drivesdk




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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    Meanwhile our governor is directing all people coming to Florida from the Tri-State area (New York, NJ, Connecticut) to:
    1. Self isolate at their own expense
    2. Inform everybody in Florida they might have come in contact with for the past 21 days that they have come from a Covid-19 hotspot.

    He also directs all law enforcement officers to enforce the law.

    https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/upl...0/EO_20-82.pdf
    It would have been nice if Florida had closed its beaches and stopped mass "parties" by idiot "Spring Breakers". Now, all those kids have gone home to infect their families.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    It would have been nice if Florida had closed its beaches and stopped mass "parties" by idiot "Spring Breakers". Now, all those kids have gone home to infect their families.
    In my county have 13 cases. 8 of the 13 are travel related.

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    3 members found this post helpful.
    New York's own "super-spreader" event, Chinese Lunar New Year parades?

    Every borough in the city staged them, but the most "Chinese" of the boroughs had the largest parade, and it was held in Flushing, Queens.


    Where are the highest numbers of Coronavirus cases? Queens and adjacent Brooklyn.

    Which is the hardest hit hospital? Elmhurst Hospital in Queens, a stone's throw from the route of the parade.

    The last parade was February 9th.

    Given the date, not quite as stupid as keeping the ski resorts open into March, but...





    Why? Because the Coronavirus "scare" was racist, and these were politicians playing to their constituents.

    The real beaut was later, and from my nominee for the biggest dunce of a mayor, Bill DeBlasio...



    No wonder Governor Cuomo's face tightens up every time he has to utter the words: the Mayor. The Governor had to freaking demand, within 24 hours, a plan to reduce density on New York City streets.

    He's the same genius who refused to close the New York City school system until forced, because he was afraid it would be inconvenient for inner city kids to get their free breakfasts and lunches. The state had to step in and provide him with a plan for that as well.

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    I knew it was coming: the state is considering hospital wide non resuscitation orders for Coronavirus patients.

    I completely understand it, but it's still terrible.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    I knew it was coming: the state is considering hospital wide non resuscitation orders for Coronavirus patients.

    I completely understand it, but it's still terrible.
    Did they order industrial size gas ovens yet? I mean why even take them to the hospital?

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    by tomorrow the US will have more confirmed cases than Italy and (supposedly) China.

    ... tv talks about curves, ... all I see are vertical straight lines.

    in my State, the confirmed cases are skyrocketing, that said, three counties are considered part of the New York metropolitan area.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    Did they order industrial size gas ovens yet? I mean why even take them to the hospital?
    Well, that's what China did, i.e. sent them home when they ran out of hospital, and especially ventilator capacity, and locked them in with their relatives, who all promptly got it, but couldn't spread it, because police and military were on the streets to keep them inside their homes. China has been widely praised for bringing it under control. That was one of their methods. They also burned most of the bodies because there was no one to bury them.

    If there aren't enough ventilators, even by hooking up two people at a time, what would you suggest?

    The average ventilator patient is on the machines for 3-4 days, while a Coronavirus patient is on them for 3 weeks or more; that's why the statistics coming out of Wuhan and Italy show such huge numbers of "unresolved" cases.

    To be fair, if you're over 65 and have pre-existing conditions and have been on a ventilator for a while, I doubt you'll ever be the same again; you might be condemned to a ventilator for the rest of your life. If you're trying to save the most lives possible, would it really make sense to resuscitate that person if he or she goes into cardiac arrest?

    I already have a non-resuscitation order in my living will for certain situations; I've had it for a long time. No way I want to have my family see me in a vegetative state for years.

    This is what I keep on coming back to: it's not the absolute CFR when this is over and we have a real feel for what it is; it's that even if it's only 1% (which is ten times more than from the flu), if you have a large enough number of cases of it in one area, and it's more severe than regular influenza cases, resulting in a larger percentage of cases requiring hospitalization, that means the hospital system will be over-run, which means not only more deaths from Coronavirus, but more deaths from everything else, including infectious and non-infectious diseases like cancer.

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    How has New York become so rapidly an epicenter of Covid-19? With more than 35,000 cases in a population of 19.5 million people, it's now more seriously affected by it than Italy (or it's testing more people, I don't know what's going on there now).

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