Health New Coronavirus in China

[Stuvanè]

I just keep asking myself: why Bergamo? (This kind of thinking is an occupational hazard for me.

Looking back over the news from Italy, there was a big conference between Chinese and Italian leaders in Rome about the so called Belt and Road Plan.

However, that was in May of 2019. It doesn't seem possible that it was in China and then in Italy that early. The distinctive pattern of these x-rays would have been obvious, no?

Then there's the fact that, if I remember correctly, the strain in Munich and Lombardia is from Fujian. What reason would people from Fujian have for skipping around Southern Germany and Northern Italy? (In other parts of Germany it's predominantly another strain.)

Fujian is one of the more affluent provinces with many industries spanning tea production, clothing and sports manufacturers such as Anta, 361 Degrees, Xtep, Peak Sport Products and Septwolves. Many foreign firms have operations in Fujian. They include Boeing, Dell, GE, Kodak, Nokia, Siemens, Swire, TDK and Panasonic.

Well, there's the link to Munich. It's through Siemens. The Chinese woman who initially brought it to Munich must have been a Siemens associate from Fujian. No reason for any particular contact with Italy, though, unless her travel history indicates otherwise. That would have come out if it was checked, however, although having doctors do contact tracing makes no sense to me. Put the police, the equivalent of the FBI on it.

It would also be easy to check airplane manifests. Count back 14 days from the first case in Lombardia and from that point start checking for any passengers from Fujian. It's not hard to do if you think like a cop or a prosecutor.

Unbeknownst to doctors and the authorities, did someone who was a more casual contact of the businesswoman escape identification, and perhaps drive over the Alps to ski? It's not only close contacts who might have been at risk. All she had to do was cough on someone in passing on the street, or be in the lavatory with someone and it's done. If that person is asymptomatic and decides to go skiing near Bergamo?

This is how epidemics work, and why the only real answer is a vaccine.

Today some newspapers report the news of some first results from a research conducted by the team of Professor Massimo Ciccozzi of the Campus Biomedico of Rome, according to which Covid-19 arrived in Italy in two different epidemic events, one directly from China and a second mediated from a third country. Basically a kind of pincer that crushed us.


In any case - for what little I understood - I believe that the problem arose from an incorrect evaluation that led to concentrate the efforts and medical investigations on the territory of Lodi and Cremona, having found the first cases there and considering it the most important fire of the infection, when probably the main explosion of the virus was taking place elsewhere: like Bergamo and - at this point (hoping to be wrong) - in Milan. People transiting from abroad or to abroad in Lombardy must pass through the belt of ​​Milan / Bergamo / Brescia. This is where companies, industries and services are concentrated, it is here that two of the airports in the region are located (Linate and Orio al Serio) and it's always here that the bulk of the railway lines and road/motorway axes that connect all Northern Italy in the West-East direction.


Frankly I thought that having found the infection between Lodi, Cremona and the nearby Piacenza in Emilia (very important centers for agri-food production, but in the end "quiet" from a point of view of the movement of people, at least when compared to others cities) should have immediately alarmed the whole region. Instead other logics and assessments prevailed.


There have been all the conditions for multiplying this disaster

 

[torzio]

In australia ...we are coming into autumn and then winter .............expecting the worse
current state of play in link

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...ls-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704

 

[Carlos]

In australia ...we are coming into autumn and then winter .............expecting the worse
current state of play in link

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...ls-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704

Above all, go buying masks and alcohol, here yesterday the alcohol was exhausted, the masks have been exhausted almost from the beginning.

Alcohool is very good both for the hands and for the surfaces since it damn virus lasts x time depending on the surfaces, cardboard, glass e.t.c. I received an order for amazon, I did not open the door and the waiter left it on the ground, then I opened the package with gloves and cleaned the product with alcohol, but still, sooner or later I would make a mistake.

I also received this week neither olive oil (Melgarejo) from Jaén and the boxes are cardboard covered with plastic, sooner or later we will all end up infected, if Bay Bay happens it will have been a pleasure to meet you, we will see each other in eternity.

 

[Yetos]

Frankly I thought that having found the infection between Lodi, Cremona and the nearby Piacenza in Emilia (very important centers for agri-food production, but in the end "quiet" from a point of view of the movement of people, at least when compared to others cities) should have immediately alarmed the whole region. Instead other logics and assessments prevailed.


There have been all the conditions for multiplying this disaster

that is the fear of many people, including me,

Coronavirus is not transmited by consuption of food, at least from what scientists say, like other viruses,
BUT, could it be transmited by touch or even gathering time breath to fruits and green,
I mean you touch a orange at market, and in a short time another one touch it, or you touch somethning that the gatherer was nearby, 30 cm lets say, could that trasmit virus?

 

[Stuvanè]

that is the fear of many, including me,

Coronavirus is not transmited by consuption of food, at least from what scientists say, like other viruses,
BUT, could it be transmited by touch or even gathering time breath to fruits and green,
I mean you touch a orange at market, and in a short time another one touch it, or you touch somethning that the gatherer was nearby, 30 cm lets say, could that trasmit virus?

I agree, Yetos. For now I don't even believe that the food supply chain is particularly involved in the spread of the virus (and if it is, we are probably talking about a secondary vector .... we have many defects, but Italians are very uncompromising about food: an inspection by NAS Carabineers is never a courtesy visit ...).


What I wanted to say is that if there have already been so many Covid-19 patients between Lodi-Cremona-Piacenza, which are smaller centers from a demographic point of view, let's also say more "provincial" or peripheral (therefore with less transits than people if not on specific sectors, such as the food sector), an even higher number of people infected in the rest of the reason could be expected with greater reason and proportion, where there are the most important railway, automotive and airport hubs ...


Surely this virus has an unusual contagiousness, "tsunami" is not a term used inappropriately, but I also have the personal impression that the local, regional, national and international rulers know little or nothing about what happens on their territory logistically, about the movement of goods and people.
Poor adherence to reality, poor practical sense and - if all this had been well known - political cynicism and dishonesty that prompted some of them to exploit this tragedy to settle political and economic accounts

 

[ihype02]

Today:
1. China 81,008 (+41)
2. Italy 53,578 (+6,557)
3. Spain 25,374 (+3,803)
4. USA 24,116 (+4,733)
5. Germany 22,084 (+2,236)
6. Iran 20,610 (+966)
7. France 14,459 (+1,847)
8. S.Korea 8,799 (+147)
9. Switzerland 6,489 (+874)
10. UK 5,018 (+1,035)
Yesterday:
1. China 80,967 (+39)
2. Italy 47,021 (+5,986)
3. Spain 20,412 (+2,335)
4. Germany 19,848 (+4,528)
5. Iran 19,644 (+1,237)
6. USA 16,638 (+2,849)
7. France 12,612 (+1,617)
8. S.Korea 8,652 (+87)
9. Switzerland 5,381 (+1,159)
10. UK 3,983 (+714)

 

[Yetos]

I agree, Yetos. For now I don't even believe that the food supply chain is particularly involved in the spread of the virus (and if it is, we are probably talking about a secondary vector .... we have many defects, but Italians are very uncompromising about food: an inspection by NAS Carabineers is never a courtesy visit ...).


What I wanted to say is that if there have already been so many Covid-19 patients between Lodi-Cremona-Piacenza, which are smaller centers from a demographic point of view, let's also say more "provincial" or peripheral (therefore with less transits than people if not on specific sectors, such as the food sector), an even higher number of people infected in the rest of the reason could be expected with greater reason and proportion, where there are the most important railway, automotive and airport hubs ...


Surely this virus has an unusual contagiousness, "tsunami" is not a term used inappropriately, but I also have the personal impression that the local, regional, national and international rulers know little or nothing about what happens on their territory logistically, about the movement of goods and people.
Poor adherence to reality, poor practical sense and - if all this had been well known - political cynicism and dishonesty that prompted some of them to exploit this tragedy to settle political and economic accounts

I see your point about small peripheral province,
But seems that there either exists a lot, either not,
was looking to San Marino, iceland Andora Luxebourg before,
They have % bigger than Italy (San Marino is Italy ok. but x5 %)
a village of about 100 people here in Greece has 3 dead and 14 confirmed, cause nobody was suspicious, population mostly farmers and aged.
someone went a tour to holy lands and brought it.
until next day that State realize it, by checking another co-tour member damage was done.

 

[Carlos]

Today:
1. China 81,008 (+41)
2. Italy 53,578 (+6,557)
3. Spain 25,374 (+3,803)
4. USA 24,116 (+4,733)
5. Germany 22,084 (+2,236)
6. Iran 20,610 (+966)
7. France 14,459 (+1,847)
8. S.Korea 8,799 (+147)
9. Switzerland 6,489 (+874)
10. UK 5,018 (+1,035)
Yesterday:
1. China 80,967 (+39)
2. Italy 47,021 (+5,986)
3. Spain 20,412 (+2,335)
4. Germany 19,848 (+4,528)
5. Iran 19,644 (+1,237)
6. USA 16,638 (+2,849)
7. France 12,612 (+1,617)
8. S.Korea 8,652 (+87)
9. Switzerland 5,381 (+1,159)
10. UK 3,983 (+714)

I think that Germany does not count those who already had another previous pathology.

 

[Stuvanè]

I see your point about small peripheral province,
But seems that there either exists a lot, either not,
was looking to San Marino, iceland Andora Luxebourg before,
They have % bigger than Italy (San Marino is Italy ok. but x5 %)
a village of about 100 people here in Greece has 3 dead and 14 confirmed, cause nobody was suspicious, population mostly farmers and aged.
someone went a tour to holy lands and brought it.
until next day that State realize it, by checking another co-tour member damage was done.

I can't speak knowingly, not being a statistician, but I hypothesize that in the case of state realities and small populations such as those of Luxembourg, Andorra or San Marino, even an absolute small number of infected or deaths become extremely impactful when calculate the various percentages (a bit like in bottlenecks phaenomena).

I don't know enough Andorra or Luxembourg, while I know San Marino as my pockets, since it is opposite the country of my grandfather.
I am not surprised by its numbers, even if it is a foreign state, in fact it can be considered a large municipality largely encapsulated within the Province of Rimini, from which it is only 25 km and half an hour away by car (and the people of San Marino are genetically and in all respects Romagnols / Montefeltrins).

San Marino hasn't a real border, it depends for some services on Italy, at least 5-6000 frontier workers from Rimini reach it every day and probably as many San Marino people pour into Italy. It is an important tourist center, but it is also a tax haven, so it remains a popular destination for Italians and foreigners. There is also talk of a certain close consanguinity among the inhabitants of this small republic, at least those of the older generation, which perhaps does not help much in terms of health.

However, opportunities to import the virus are not lacking. Basically it followed the fate of Rimini, which was the other nucleus of Emilia-Romagna attacked by the virus from the first hour, which persuades me more and more that the big business and tourism centers are those where the virus he arrived earlier, without anyone noticing. But incidentally it was discovered out of them... :/

 

[Angela]

Today some newspapers report the news of some first results from a research conducted by the team of Professor Massimo Ciccozzi of the Campus Biomedico of Rome, according to which Covid-19 arrived in Italy in two different epidemic events, one directly from China and a second mediated from a third country. Basically a kind of pincer that crushed us.


In any case - for what little I understood - I believe that the problem arose from an incorrect evaluation that led to concentrate the efforts and medical investigations on the territory of Lodi and Cremona, having found the first cases there and considering it the most important fire of the infection, when probably the main explosion of the virus was taking place elsewhere: like Bergamo and - at this point (hoping to be wrong) - in Milan. People transiting from abroad or to abroad in Lombardy must pass through the belt of ​​Milan / Bergamo / Brescia. This is where companies, industries and services are concentrated, it is here that two of the airports in the region are located (Linate and Orio al Serio) and it's always here that the bulk of the railway lines and road/motorway axes that connect all Northern Italy in the West-East direction.


Frankly I thought that having found the infection between Lodi, Cremona and the nearby Piacenza in Emilia (very important centers for agri-food production, but in the end "quiet" from a point of view of the movement of people, at least when compared to others cities) should have immediately alarmed the whole region. Instead other logics and assessments prevailed.


There have been all the conditions for multiplying this disaster

Could you provide me with a link to the paper? Not something written by a reporter, but the actual paper? Thank you in advance.

This is the kind of detective work I did for a big part of my life. I can't go to Italy to help, and I can't even help here other than to follow the rules, so I may as well occupy my mind with this.

I'm interested to know the location of the first cases and when the transmission to them must have occurred, i.e. the time frame for infection, since they were probably infected no more than 2 weeks before onset of symptoms. Also, of course, the location.

That would be not just the first "diagnosed" cases, but the first cases looking back at the record of deaths by interstitial pneumonia, even if that isn't listed as the primary cause of death.

Also interesting would be to see if the researchers pinpointed the location of the transmission from China and the specific strain. Is it the original Wuhan strain? It would have to have come into Italy pretty damn early, since Italy was the first country in Europe to close down flights from China.

Most importantly, is there any indication that one of those two circulating "types" is more contagious and "lethal" than the other?

I know how conservative Italian doctors are (and personal bankers ). I'd be interested to know if they've been using chloroquinine, and if not, if and when they will start.

Another point of curiosity...does Italy produce its own N95 masks, surgical gloves, etc. or is it always dependent on other countries? I hope you're seeing industrialists step up to re-tool factories to produce them and sanitizer, ventilators, etc., as they are doing here.

 

[Salento]

my UV Gladius,
... got to Sanitize my Beer, lol

 

[Stuvanè]

I think that Germany does not count those who already had another previous pathology.

I also think so and I'd say that it's now almost a certainty. Open secret/the secret of Pulcinella ...


In Bergamo, 330 people died in the week from 8 to 15 March 2020: 14 times more deaths than in the same week of 2019.
With such important numbers, what sense does it make to distinguish between coronavirus-only deaths from coronavirus-related deaths, or by attributing death to the previous major disease already claimed, excluding Covid-19 altogether?
According to such reasoning, we should rewrite the history of medicine and recalculate even those who died of AIDS: AIDS would no longer exist and Freddie Mercury would have died only of bad bronchial pneumonia. A medical sophistry with non-medical purposes.


Many of us, after 40-50 years of age, do not begin to drag on some more or less important health ailments, which cure more or less well until the end of the days? I would say that it is almost the norm, and to bring it up in order to reduce the lethality of the virus or to pass off a medical efficiency - that is not there or could go to the point of suffering - now seems to me a childish game as well as dangerous

 

[Carlos]

I also think so and I'd say that it's now almost a certainty. Open secret/the secret of Pulcinella ...


In Bergamo, 330 people died in the week from 8 to 15 March 2020: 14 times more deaths than in the same week of 2019.
With such important numbers, what sense does it make to distinguish between coronavirus-only deaths from coronavirus-related deaths, or by attributing death to the previous major disease already claimed, excluding Covid-19 altogether?
According to such reasoning, we should rewrite the history of medicine and recalculate even those who died of AIDS: AIDS would no longer exist and Freddie Mercury would have died only of bad bronchial pneumonia. A medical sophistry with non-medical purposes.


Many of us, after 40-50 years of age, do not begin to drag on some more or less important health ailments, which cure more or less well until the end of the days? I would say that it is almost the norm, and to bring it up in order to reduce the lethality of the virus or to pass off a medical efficiency - that is not there or could go to the point of suffering - now seems to me a childish game as well as dangerous

I think exactly the same.


It is stupid of Germany to play that dirty game, what do you intend to demonstrate? The answer is very easy.

 

[Angela]

I have found Dr. Ciccozzi's paper on researchgate.

"The emergence of the novel beta Coronavirus, recently renamed as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, SARS‐CoV‐2, has raised serious concerns due to the virus rapid dissemination worldwide. Nevertheless, there is limited information about the genomic epidemiology of SARS‐CoV‐2 circulating in Italy from surveillance studies. The shortage of complete genomic sequences available impairs our understanding of the SARS‐CoV‐2 introduction and establishment in the country. To better understand its dynamics in Italy, we analysed complete genomes of SARS‐CoV‐2 isolates, obtained directly from clinical samples. Our phylogenetic reconstructions suggest possible multiple introduction of SARS‐CoV‐2. Continued genomic surveillance strategies are needed to improve monitoring and understanding of the currently SARS‐CoV‐2 epidemics, which might help to attenuate public health impact of infectious diseases."

However, I don't have institutional access. Can someone get it?

 

[Stuvanè]

Could you provide me with a link to the paper? Not something written by a reporter, but the actual paper? Thank you in advance.

This is the kind of detective work I did for a big part of my life. I can't go to Italy to help, and I can't even help here other than to follow the rules, so I may as well occupy my mind with this.

I'm interested to know the location of the first cases and when the transmission to them must have occurred, i.e. the time frame for infection, since they were probably infected no more than 2 weeks before onset of symptoms. Also, of course, the location.

That would be not just the first "diagnosed" cases, but the first cases looking back at the record of deaths by interstitial pneumonia, even if that isn't listed as the primary cause of death.

Also interesting would be to see if the researchers pinpointed the location of the transmission from China and the specific strain. Is it the original Wuhan strain? It would have to have come into Italy pretty damn early, since Italy was the first country in Europe to close down flights from China.

Most importantly, is there any indication that one of those two circulating "types" is more contagious and "lethal" than the other?

I know how conservative Italian doctors are (and personal bankers ). I'd be interested to know if they've been using chloroquinine, and if not, if and when they will start.

Another point of curiosity...does Italy produce its own N95 masks, surgical gloves, etc. or is it always dependent on other countries? I hope you're seeing industrialists step up to re-tool factories to produce them and sanitizer, ventilators, etc., as they are doing here.

@Angela

the news appeared in various newspapers and agencies. Like these

https://roma.repubblica.it/cronaca/...us_e_arrivato_in_italia_due_volte_-251875548/


https://www.adnkronos.com/fatti/cro...lte-germania-cina_976YJoE0RzIZrJ6Jjmh4FN.html



The actual scientific article would be published in the "Journal of Medical Virology", but I haven't pinpointed it yet.


The virus - changed in a more lethal version - at the moment is a hypothesis, but it's making headway among many doctors


https://www.corriere.it/salute/mala...ti-923b7344-6b78-11ea-8bdc-8d7efa0d8720.shtml


I don't know if we have an internal production of those specific medical masks that you mention, but even if there was, it is not now sufficient for the national needs and we depend entirely on imports from abroad and unfortunately, along the way, many seem to have been blocked or requisitioned. On the other hand, some internal companies operating in the textile and tailoring or in sportswear productions are converting part of their production into masks, at least those to be made available to ordinary citizens

 

[Salento]

that is the fear of many people, including me,

Coronavirus is not transmited by consuption of food, at least from what scientists say, like other viruses,
BUT, could it be transmited by touch or even gathering time breath to fruits and green,
I mean you touch a orange at market, and in a short time another one touch it, or you touch somethning that the gatherer was nearby, 30 cm lets say, could that trasmit virus?

Ultraviolet Sanitizer (UV C light wand)

... fruit, mail, boxes, countertops, phones, Keyboards, ....... (keep away from skin)

 

[Angela]

@Angela

the news appeared in various newspapers and agencies. Like these

https://roma.repubblica.it/cronaca/...us_e_arrivato_in_italia_due_volte_-251875548/


https://www.adnkronos.com/fatti/cro...lte-germania-cina_976YJoE0RzIZrJ6Jjmh4FN.html



The actual scientific article would be published in the "Journal of Medical Virology", but I haven't pinpointed it yet.


The virus - changed in a more lethal version - at the moment is a hypothesis, but it's making headway among many doctors


https://www.corriere.it/salute/mala...ti-923b7344-6b78-11ea-8bdc-8d7efa0d8720.shtml


I don't know if we have an internal production of those specific medical masks that you mention, but even if there was, it is not now sufficient for the national needs and we depend entirely on imports from abroad and unfortunately, along the way, many seem to have been blocked or requisitioned. On the other hand, some internal companies operating in the textile and tailoring or in sportswear productions are converting part of their production into masks, at least those to be made available to ordinary citizens

Stuvane,
See post number 654. The paper is on researchgate, but I don't have institutional access. Maybe someone here can get it and post it.

I'm glad to hear they're re-tooling the factories. Italy should never again depend on foreign countries, trade agreements or not, EU or not, for essential products. Keep production internal. It's what the U.S. has to do as well.

The CDC said today the U.S. needs 50 million masks just for the health care facilities, because you can wear them only for a certain amount of time before they are assumed to be contaminated and have to be thrown out. The government apparently has hidden emergency stockpiles, which have been sent out, but there are kinks in the supply chain so some hospitals haven't gotten them yet, and anyway, it isn't enough, so they're repurposing factories to produce more.

Governor Cuomo of New York State said today he is buying 2 million of them from abroad, but didn't say what country.

He is far, far, too liberal and "woke" for me normally, but he's the only public official I see who seems to have a grip on the virus and what has to be done.

Thank goodness we have him, because the mayor of NYC is useless.

Btw, the respirator masks which really help are labeled N95. They're different from the thin, loose fitting ones which are just so the health care professional doesn't spread his/her viruses.

The ones specifically for hospital use may be a little different, but the ones for construction, farming etc. are also good for the general public.

They're good for about 8 hours of continuous use.

I had ordered some weeks ago, just to be safe, and was about to go to the hospital to turn them in when it was announced shipments had come in. I just wish I could figure out how to send them to Italy.

 

[Yetos]

@ Angela

China is paying back her obligation,

yesterday they return to the countries that helped them, 10 tons of medical products to Italy,

1 000 000 masks have been arrived yesterday to Italy
500 000 masks here to Greece,

most cloth sewing fabricas are sewing masks,

By what I hear the problem in Italy is the tremendous oxygen demands,
and the smaller than demand, existing number of specialized 'beds'

KN95 mask is nothing special,
Coronavirus has big diameter,
many common working masks are better than KN95.
even many dust masks.


even a P100 mask which is dust mask is better than KN95
and maybe cheaper,

 

[Angela]

China is on a massive public relations offensive. I don't give a crap so long as they send the supplies, but don't let's forget the realities here. I'm not going to forget they hid the truth from the world, a DELIBERATE action, not a mistake or chance, and even punished their own doctors who were trying to blow the whistle on the new and different pneumonia scans they were seeing. I have a really long memory for every deliberate injury to me or mine, and so should everybody else.

They also want access to our ports and infrastructure. That's what some of the recent agreements have been about. Don't be naive.

N95 is better than N99 for medical purposes. There have been a few articles about it.

 

[ihype02]

China is on a massive public relations offensive. I don't give a crap so long as they send the supplies, but don't let's forget the realities here. I'm not going to forget they hid the truth from the world, a DELIBERATE action, not a mistake or chance, and even punished their own doctors who were trying to blow the whistle on the new and different pneumonia scans they were seeing. I have a really long memory for every deliberate injury to me or mine, and so should everybody else.

They also want access to our ports and infrastructure. That's what some of the recent agreements have been about. Don't be naive.

N95 is better than N99 for medical purposes. There have been a few articles about it.

Agreed.

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