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Thread: New Coronavirus in China

  1. #1176
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yetos View Post
    If this pharmacy apotheke was in Greece, they would pay a fine, for overpopulation,
    the difference is that personel should be behind a glass like in banks
    the law here except such safety precautions also say about how many person enter, at pharmacys the law allow min 1 person per 15 m2 ​ (including personel) of clear area, including personel. (clear area = true area minus storage and warehouses,)
    Every where here is 15 m2, except Super markets were it is 10 m2 for now.
    So they line up outside; minimally better for the clients, I suppose, since they're out in the open air.

    This shouldn't be a contest about which country does things better, or even sound like that.

    Don't we all have enough stress without that?


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dagne View Post
    This is an interesting article - why SARS-2 spreads so well compared to SARS-1 (though in many other aspects they are very similar)

    The new coronavirus has an HIV-like mutation that means its ability to bind with human cells could be up to 1,000 times as strong as the Sars virus, according to new research by scientists in China and Europe.
    Scientists showed that Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) entered the human body by binding with a receptor protein called ACE2 on a cell membrane. And some early studies suggested that the new coronavirus, which shares about 80 per cent of the genetic structure of Sars, might follow a similar path.

    But the ACE2 protein does not exist in large quantities in healthy people, and this partly helped to limit the scale of the Sars outbreak of 2002-03, in which infected about 8,000 people around the world.

    Other highly contagious viruses, including HIV and Ebola, target an enzyme called furin, which works as a protein activator in the human body. Many proteins are inactive or dormant when they are produced and have to be “cut” at specific points to activate their various functions.

    When looking at the genome sequence of the new coronavirus, Professor Ruan Jishou and his team at Nankai University in Tianjin found a section of mutated genes that did not exist in Sars, but were similar to those found in HIV and Ebola.

    “This finding suggests that 2019-nCoV [the new coronavirus] may be significantly different from the Sars coronavirus in the infection pathway,”
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...scientists-say


    The reason why some people think SARS-2 was manufactured is because of its similarity to SARs 2003. It is like an updated SARS - 1 version, rather than a new product. Earlier, SARs, MERs, EBOLA, HIV, they all were "originals" - entirely new viruses.

    So far, scientists do not know how to produce an entirely new virus. They take an existing one and alter it by deleting/inserting parts of different viruses, depending on qualities that they want to bring out in a new manufactured virus. In this respect
    SARS-CoV-2 looks like it was made on SARS 2003 platform plus some alterations regarding susceptibility.

    On the other hand, SARS-CoV-2 might have developed by itself, only nobody can find an animal vector who had this virus naturally in nature. The whole story really makes one wonder. I suppose China tries to avoid any association with SARS-CoV-2 by any means, as it caused so much damage Worldwide.

    Indeed, it does make one wonder, especially as the Wuhan bioweapons lab is just hundreds of yards from the Wuhan "wet" market, as I heard today.

    In the early days there were posts from within Wuhan which said low level employees at the lab would sell lab animals to the wet market once the scientists were through with them. Then the reports stopped.

    I have no way of knowing whether it was a scurrilous rumor or not.

    What I do know is that some human beings are capable of any stupidity or cupidity, so no one should be surprised if it turns out to be true.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    So they line up outside; minimally better for the clients, I suppose, since they're out in the open air.

    This shouldn't be a contest about which country does things better, or even sound like that.

    Don't we all have enough stress without that?
    maybe we do all have stress,
    but after 'touch', second is distance,
    and the most annoying is when they pass beside you,
    with no masks and no gloves,

    I went to street shop for 'stupid things to buy' and nobody respect distance and rest,
    some use money, coins and papper without gloves.
    I went again 2 days after wearing my half-face filter mask, sea glasses!!! of my daughters, and my plastic 'suit' I use at orchande
    and all were afraid of me, and keep distance,

    no matter most pharmacies I use at orcande are biological, I am afraid of concentrations,
    and I have 2 times to face chemicals per year,
    the daily exercise for all elders from Meditterenean,
    a small piece land outside town,
    ΟΘΕΝ ΑΙΔΩΣ OY EINAI
    ΑΤΗ ΛΑΜΒΑΝΕΙΝ ΑΥΤΟΙΣ
    ΥΒΡΙΣ ΓΕΝΝΑΤΑΙ
    ΝΕΜΕΣΙΣ ΚΑΙ ΤΙΣΗ ΑΚΟΛΟΥΘΟΥΣΙ ΔΕ

    When there is no shame
    Divine blindness conquers them
    Hybris (abuse, opprombium) is born
    Nemesis and punishment follows.

    Εχε υπομονη Ηρωα
    Η τιμωρια δεν αργει.

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    @Dagne

    always an optimist,
    transmiting hope and smile,


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    well most measures are MUST,
    but some are funny,
    Like the late 2 laws,
    1. swimming is forbiden at sea, everywhere here,
    2. amateur fishing from shores also forbiten

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yetos View Post
    maybe we do all have stress,
    but after 'touch', second is distance,
    and the most annoying is when they pass beside you,
    with no masks and no gloves,

    I went to street shop for 'stupid things to buy' and nobody respect distance and rest,
    some use money, coins and papper without gloves.
    I went again 2 days after wearing my half-face filter mask, sea glasses!!! of my daughters, and my plastic 'suit' I use at orchande
    and all were afraid of me, and keep distance,

    no matter most pharmacies I use at orcande are biological, I am afraid of concentrations,
    and I have 2 times to face chemicals per year,
    the daily exercise for all elders from Meditterenean,
    a small piece land outside town,
    I completely agree with you. Until people start dropping dead around them, some people just will NOT get it.

    I was listening to music and looking out my front window. Within the space of forty minutes or so, I saw at least three groups of adult women of three or four or so power walking together; no masks, barely three feet apart.

    I also saw at least five groups of teenagers riding bikes together, very close, stopping to chat, also very close. That didn't surprise me. That you can't control a twenty something year old is one thing, but these people can't even control twelve or thirteen year olds.

    The worst was a group of three sets of parents with their little children on tricycles, who stopped to chat with each other; again, no masks, barely three feet apart. If it's in one of those adults, the others can be directly infected. Even if not, if one child has it and gives it to the children of the other two parents, everybody has it. What if an elderly person lives with them? I just listened to Cuomo talking about how concerned they are about Long Island and the skyrocketing cases.

    I've always had the reputation in my private life as the "nice" mommy and neighbor, the "sweet" one in comparison to my friends Ruth and Janice. I had enough of having to be tough at work. Well, enough is enough. I went onto the front porch and yelled like someone on a balcony in Napoli that they should have their heads examined and were a disgrace. I told them to go home and educate themselves about the virus and stop putting themselves and their children at risk.

    They had the good grace to just leave or I swear to God I don't know what I would have said. It's as if they had forgotten. You're not allowed to forget at times like these.

    It just infuriates me; this isn't some group of homeless, psychotic people. These are supposedly intelligent, educated professionals. Are their brains on holiday????

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    the worst thing is at Markets,
    you know when they choose the fruits,

    I bought oranges, and I wash them with hot water and soap,
    I bought tomatoes, and sunk them at alcool for 5 min,
    my salad smell like tsipoyro, or vodka,
    I have a bowl with 1,5 lt alcool, covered, at refrigator, for sterilize fruits groceries, etc

    the photo is before corona, but the habbit stills continues, even with gloves.
    touch 2, to take 3rd.







    Lockdown make us violent,
    bombing from news,
    closed at home for days,
    Fear of next beside us,
    etc,
    make us anti-social, by time,

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yetos View Post
    well most measures are MUST,
    but some are funny,
    Like the late 2 laws,
    1. swimming is forbiden at sea, everywhere here,
    2. amateur fishing from shores also forbiten
    On its face it is stupid but they don't want people to use this to socialize.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yetos View Post
    the worst thing is at Markets,
    you know when they choose the fruits,

    I bought oranges, and I wash them with hot water and soap,
    I bought tomatoes, and sunk them at alcool for 5 min,
    my salad smell like tsipoyro, or vodka,
    I have a bowl with 1,5 lt alcool, covered, at refrigator, for sterilize fruits groceries, etc

    the photo is before corona, but the habbit stills continues, even with gloves.
    touch 2, to take 3rd.







    Lockdown make us violent,
    bombing from news,
    closed at home for days,
    Fear of next beside us,
    etc,
    make us anti-social, by time,
    The markets with all the fruit and the tomatoes just out for everybody to squeeze and feel is one of my pet peeves even before Covid-19. Bag of grapes can be opened up and people sample the grapes. I swear some of the old people would sample 10-15 bags contaminating all of them. WTF!?

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    For years I've listened to tourists and expats complain because in most markets in Italy you aren't allowed to pick the fruits and vegetables yourselves; the vendor does it.

    Well, at least then you'd have only the vendor's hands to worry about.

    Full disclosure; when we first got here my mom was thrilled she could test the fruits for ripeness herself. Also, the vendor couldn't cheat you. She was manic about washing it all when she got home, but still....

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    Great...just great...now I suppose the questions are: what percent develop serious symptoms, and to what extent is this data any more reliable than the original data coming out of China?

    @WHO
    epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove said that data out of China suggests that 75 percent of novel coronavirus patients originally listed as asymptomatic go on to develop symptoms.



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    ... a security detail officer of the Italian Premier

    According to what I have been reading, Here's someone who should have been the last person I imagined would have died from this virus,

    52-Year-Old Officer In Italian Prime Minister's Security Dies Of COVID-19

    https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coro...ity-di-2206175


    Coronavirus, morto un poliziotto della scorta del premier Conte

    https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cron...-202002a.shtml

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    "In Iceland: Fifty per cent of those that test positive in our screenings of the general population are symptom-free at the time. Many of them get symptoms later.”

    "Note that the multi-chromosomal nature of influenza makes it much more likely to recombine into a new and dangerous form than the single-chromosome betacoronaviridae like SARS2. However, there are thousands of variants potentially in animal reservoirs. Wildlife trade is suicidal."




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    Ok
    now the bad or good news,

    The arangements, the mathetical agrrements etc
    Are the obvious,
    same treaty,
    simmilar age gender etc,
    no new treatment / cure
    confirmation is under same random conditions, and not chosen
    etc
    etc



    lets see
    1. Recovery has a delay of more than 20 days
    a death for example can be from day 5 to day ... , but a confirmed recovery should be after 21-24 Days
    2. true Mortality and true Recovery rate when added must result 1 M+R= 1 (100%)
    it can bee seen at mainland China

    Now
    Active% column (7 column) is how wrong both current Mortality and current Recovery are,
    the bigger % the more wrong,
    we can make some estimations, about Deaths, with a statistical mistake at second class numbers, when bellow 68,1%, yet the deviation is ...

    Current Mortality is present mortality,

    so for example in Spain we have M+R=36.59% to predict the rest 63.41% (coloumn Active)
    If NO NEW cases enter, we are certain mortality M will have a grow, but much less than R, since Recovery has a delay.

    Condidering the above, each can make his own estimation, on present Data bellow
    The problem to have more accurate is the time publishing, the correct reports, etc , either M either R,
    usually there is also a secondary delay to declare Recovery cases, for known reasons



    COUNTRY Population /1000 Confirmed infected deaths upon confirmed recover Active % Confirmed infected /1000 people Current mortality Recover rate Estimated mortality up lim Estimated mortality low lim estimated deaths *
























    1 San Marino 33 259 32 27 77,22 7,8485 0,1236 0,1042


    2 Andora 76 466 17 21 91,85 6,1316 0,0365 0,0451


    3 Luxenbourg 614 2729 31 500 80,54 4,4446 0,0114 0,1832


    4 Iceland 364 1417 4 396 71,77 3,8929 0,0028 0,2795


    5 Feroe isls 52 181 0 93 48,62 3,4808 0,0000 0,5138


    6 Spain 46733 126168 11947 34219 63,41 2,6998 0,0947 0,2712


    7 Swiss 8570 20505 666 6415 65,47 2,3926 0,0325 0,3129


    8 Italy 60318 124632 15362 20996 70,83 2,0662 0,1233 0,1685


    9 Liechtenstein 39 77 1 0 98,70 1,9744 0,0130 0,0000


    10 Belgium 11516 18431 1283 3247 75,42 1,6005 0,0696 0,1762


    11 France 67022 89953 7560 15438 74,43 1,3421 0,0840 0,1716


    12 Austria 8903 11781 186 2507 77,14 1,3233 0,0158 0,2128


    13 EU 449507 534151 40896 106448 72,42 1,1883 0,0766 0,1993


    14 Deutch 83149 96092 1444 26400 71,02 1,1557 0,0150 0,2747


    15 Norway 5368 5550 62 32 98,31 1,0339 0,0112 0,0058


    16 Porugal 10277 10524 266 75 96,76 1,0240 0,0253 0,0071


    17 Netherlands 17425 16627 1651 250 88,57 0,9542 0,0993 0,0150


    18 USA 328240 312076 8499 14997 92,47 0,9508 0,0272 0,0481


    19 Esthonia 1328 1039 13 59 93,07 0,7824 0,0125 0,0568


    20 Ireland 6573 4604 137 25 96,48 0,7004 0,0298 0,0054


    21 Denmark 5823 4077 161 1283 64,58 0,7002 0,0395 0,3147


    22 sweden 10303 6553 373 205 91,18 0,6360 0,0569 0,0313


    23 UK 67547 41903 4313 135 89,39 0,6204 0,1029 0,0032


    24 Slovenia 2100 977 22 79 89,66 0,4652 0,0225 0,0809


    25 Malta 494 213 0 2 99,06 0,4312 0,0000 0,0094


    26 Czech 10650 4472 59 78 96,94 0,4199 0,0132 0,0174


    27 Cyprus 1189 426 9 33 90,14 0,3583 0,0211 0,0775


    28 Finland 5521 1882 25 300 82,73 0,3409 0,0133 0,1594


    29 Montenegro 631 201 2 1 98,51 0,3185 0,0100 0,0050


    30 Turkey 82004 23934 501 786 94,62 0,2919 0,0209 0,0328


    31 Moldova 2682 752 12 29 94,55 0,2804 0,0160 0,0386


    32 Croatia 4076 1126 12 119 88,37 0,2763 0,0107 0,1057


    33 Lithuania 2794 771 11 7 97,67 0,2759 0,0143 0,0091


    34 Lettonia 1920 509 1 1 99,61 0,2651 0,0020 0,0020


    35 Serbia 6964 1624 44 0 97,29 0,2332 0,0271 0,0000


    36 Severna Mac 2077 483 17 20 92,34 0,2325 0,0352 0,0414


    37 Romania 19402 3613 146 329 86,85 0,1862 0,0404 0,0911


    38 Bosnia 3511 624 21 30 91,83 0,1777 0,0337 0,0481


    39 Greece 10768 1673 68 78 91,27 0,1554 0,0406 0,0466


    40 Albania 2877 333 20 99 64,26 0,1157 0,0601 0,2973


    41 Poland 38386 3627 79 116 94,62 0,0945 0,0218 0,0320


    42 Slovakia 5450 471 1 10 97,66 0,0864 0,0021 0,0212


    43 Kossovo 1810 135 1 16 87,41 0,0746 0,0074 0,1185


    44 Bulgaria 7000 503 17 34 89,86 0,0719 0,0338 0,0676


    45 Hungary 9773 678 32 58 86,73 0,0694 0,0472 0,0855


    46 mainland China 1427648 82574 3333 77160 2,52 0,0578 0,0404 0,9344


    47 Belarus 9492 440 5 53 86,82 0,0464 0,0114 0,1205


    48 Russia 146745 4731 43 333 92,05 0,0322 0,0091 0,0704


    49 Ukraine 42031 1225 32 25 95,35 0,0291 0,0261 0,0204


    Last edited by Yetos; 05-04-20 at 10:59.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bicicleur View Post
    that is the easy part - lock them all up
    how are you going to release them once the worst is over
    any ideas?
    According to estimates, the peak of infections in Lithuania will be in just a week, so if it is true, the authorities will start to open up a little bit in May (outside coffee places will be opened). Again, this all will depend on a real infections curve.

    Overall, it is not forbidden to go outside as much as one wants, especially for sports, inasmuch as it is not in crowded places (which are plenty). My average daily steps for last week were 12.8 km for instance, so this is more than usual.


    This is a photo of summer time Vilnius centre - but it is equally empty as you can see. Big cities, connections, economies of scale are great for business and culture, but being a bit less connected and smaller in scale is good in times like these.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yetos View Post
    @Dagne

    always an optimist,
    transmiting hope and smile,
    Thanks Yetos! It is very nice of you to say so :)

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yetos View Post
    the worst thing is at Markets,
    you know when they choose the fruits,

    I bought oranges, and I wash them with hot water and soap,
    I bought tomatoes, and sunk them at alcool for 5 min,
    my salad smell like tsipoyro, or vodka,
    I have a bowl with 1,5 lt alcool, covered, at refrigator, for sterilize fruits groceries, etc

    the photo is before corona, but the habbit stills continues, even with gloves.
    touch 2, to take 3rd.







    Lockdown make us violent,
    bombing from news,
    closed at home for days,
    Fear of next beside us,
    etc,
    make us anti-social, by time,
    I'd like to have a salad with you.
    No need to drink an apetizer before.

  18. #1193
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    Great...just great...now I suppose the questions are: what percent develop serious symptoms, and to what extent is this data any more reliable than the original data coming out of China?

    @WHO
    epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove said that data out of China suggests that 75 percent of novel coronavirus patients originally listed as asymptomatic go on to develop symptoms.


    Well, I have this special hissing sound coming out of my chest if I want to exhale fully. I remember it from my childhood when I used to have bronchitis so very often. Otherwise, I feel fully healthy (90% of the time), I never had any fever, just a bit of cough and itchy throat for some moments some three weeks ago. Could it mean I am a carrier of the virus, or this is just my imagination? I am not visiting anyone, especially my aunt which is in the risk group, but she has been having similar mild symptoms anyway, too (not fever though). My very good friend, her daughter and her mother who lives in other town - they also had similar symptoms. Does that mean we are all carriers?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    Indeed, it does make one wonder, especially as the Wuhan bioweapons lab is just hundreds of yards from the Wuhan "wet" market, as I heard today.

    In the early days there were posts from within Wuhan which said low level employees at the lab would sell lab animals to the wet market once the scientists were through with them. Then the reports stopped.

    I have no way of knowing whether it was a scurrilous rumor or not.

    What I do know is that some human beings are capable of any stupidity or cupidity, so no one should be surprised if it turns out to be true.
    I think we should be careful with suspicion. Evidence is needed here. You don't get that, especially in a country like China this is mission impossible.

    Conversely, a corona virus as a bioweapon is, despite all the deaths we already regret, the least likely option. Because on average, Ebola and all the other terrible virus variants are many times more deadly.

    So there is no point in speculating, it's just stirring up the matter .....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dagne View Post
    According to estimates, the peak of infections in Lithuania will be in just a week, so if it is true, the authorities will start to open up a little bit in May (outside coffee places will be opened). Again, this all will depend on a real infections curve.

    Overall, it is not forbidden to go outside as much as one wants, especially for sports, inasmuch as it is not in crowded places (which are plenty). My average daily steps for last week were 12.8 km for instance, so this is more than usual.


    This is a photo of summer time Vilnius centre - but it is equally empty as you can see. Big cities, connections, economies of scale are great for business and culture, but being a bit less connected and smaller in scale is good in times like these.
    it seems more or less the same rules apply in Belgium as in Lithuania
    execept Belgium is much more dense populated
    so all parks are closed here, otherwise they would become overcrowded
    but almost every day, I go out cycling, alone

    as for the peak, Italy peaked on 21 march, but still everyone is confined in their homes
    there seems to be no rapid decline, for the moment, 2 weeks later it looks more like a steady state
    I hope it will decline soon
    but still some measures will remain in place to prevent the virus from re-igniting
    I wonder how they will handle that

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    Quote Originally Posted by bicicleur View Post
    it seems more or less the same rules apply in Belgium as in Lithuania
    execept Belgium is much more dense populated
    so all parks are closed here, otherwise they would become overcrowded
    but almost every day, I go out cycling, alone

    as for the peak, Italy peaked on 21 march, but still everyone is confined in their homes
    there seems to be no rapid decline, for the moment, 2 weeks later it looks more like a steady state
    I hope it will decline soon
    but still some measures will remain in place to prevent the virus from re-igniting
    I wonder how they will handle that
    Lithuania started its lockdown with only 7 infections, so the curve will be much more flatter here. According to estimates we will peak in Lithuania with a little over 1000 registered infections nationally. But again, number of people who are asymptomatic carriers may be factor that estimates are not taking into consideration. And then if social life is opened up too soon a new wave of infections may start. So let's go back to this question in a month or two ;)

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    what is the certification of coronavir antibodies?
    and where can be usefull?

    a lot of discussion here about that,Does anyone know ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yetos View Post

    what is the certification of coronavir antibodies?
    and where can be usefull?

    a lot of discussion here about that,Does anyone know ?
    By no means this is a serum! But a mixture of Elderberry and Echinacea has a good potential to prevent you against the coronavirus.

    It's of course no miracle and we have to stay sceptic, but scientific research is promising in this respect.

    I.Elderberry against corona:

    These results demonstrate that S. nigra extract can inhibit IBV at an early point in infection, probably by rendering the virus non-infectious. They also suggest that future studies using S. nigra extract to treat or prevent IBV or other coronaviruses are warranted.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...rticle_849.pdf

    II. Echina against corona:

    These results suggest that Echinacea purpurea preparations, such as Echinaforce, could be effective as prophylactic treatment for all CoVs, including newly occurring strains, such as SARS-CoV-2.
    https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-15282/v2

    Regarding the last research I'm somewhat more skeptical because it's partly a company who has an interest that is participating, on the other hand it's a very respected Swiss institute that is participating.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiez_Laboratory

    For me reasons enough to give it the benefit of the doubt!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dagne View Post
    Lithuania started its lockdown with only 7 infections, so the curve will be much more flatter here. According to estimates we will peak in Lithuania with a little over 1000 registered infections nationally. But again, number of people who are asymptomatic carriers may be factor that estimates are not taking into consideration. And then if social life is opened up too soon a new wave of infections may start. So let's go back to this question in a month or two ;)
    here in Belgium many were infected on holiday in Italy in week 9
    when they came back week 10 many were infected
    lockdown started 14 march, end of week 11, 3 days after the whole of Italy went in lockdown
    Belgium is number 3 in deaths/million, after Italy and Spain
    today is the first day more people left the hospital than new arrivals
    only yesterday I learned for the first time about some people I know who have Corona
    I have no knowledge of people I know that died from Corona yet
    sometimes I think the risk of dying from boredom is higher than dying from the virus

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    Quote Originally Posted by Northener View Post
    By no means this is a serum! But a mixture of Elderberry and Echinacea has a good potential to prevent you against the coronavirus.

    It's of course no miracle and we have to stay sceptic, but scientific research is promising in this respect.

    I.Elderberry against corona:


    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...rticle_849.pdf

    II. Echina against corona:



    https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-15282/v2

    Regarding the last research I'm somewhat more skeptical because it's partly a company who has an interest that is participating, on the other hand it's a very respected Swiss institute that is participating.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiez_Laboratory

    For me reasons enough to give it the benefit of the doubt!!!
    there is a discussion here, to pass all population under check,
    until Octomber, when they plan to open boarders, could this be done?

    Most afraid that they will be forced to be infected,
    if that is a primary for a job, specially at jobs like transportations, international or public, (tracks, busses, ships, airplanes)
    and secondary at social and working gathering places, like cantines, cafe etc

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