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Thread: New Coronavirus in China

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    2 members found this post helpful.

    New Coronavirus in China



    Quote Originally Posted by Jovialis View Post
    I wonder if I will go back to having long hair, like in my teenage years. Now that it is impossible for me to get a hair-cut for the foreseeable future.
    Quote Originally Posted by Salento View Post
    My poor hair, what a tragedy!

    I’ve been wearing a different hat every time I go out (to protect from Covid-19 too).

    ... not the one below yet, I’m in very blue State.

    It's not good for my health around here, lol

    @Jovialis @Salento
    Good morning dear friends. It’s time to make some physical exercises. The long quarantine asks for this, sometimes. Besides the hair is getting longer and, of course, more uncomfortable For me there is also the discomfort of a very white beard that, sometimes, I darkened it with ‘Grecian 5’ to shades of gray. Nothing that cannot be overcome when the barbershops will reopen.
    Fraternal greetings





    Prepared to visit my brother:


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    Quote Originally Posted by Yetos View Post
    Ok
    now the bad or good news,

    The arangements, the mathetical agrrements etc
    Are the obvious,
    same treaty,
    simmilar age gender etc,
    no new treatment / cure
    confirmation is under same random conditions, and not chosen
    etc
    etc



    lets see
    1. Recovery has a delay of more than 20 days
    a death for example can be from day 5 to day ... , but a confirmed recovery should be after 21-24 Days
    2. true Mortality and true Recovery rate when added must result 1 M+R= 1 (100%)
    it can bee seen at mainland China

    Now
    Active% column (7 column) is how wrong both current Mortality and current Recovery are,
    the bigger % the more wrong,
    we can make some estimations, about Deaths, with a statistical mistake at second class numbers, when bellow 68,1%, yet the deviation is ...

    Current Mortality is present mortality,

    so for example in Spain we have M+R=36.59% to predict the rest 63.41% (coloumn Active)
    If NO NEW cases enter, we are certain mortality M will have a grow, but much less than R, since Recovery has a delay.

    Condidering the above, each can make his own estimation, on present Data bellow
    The problem to have more accurate is the time publishing, the correct reports, etc , either M either R,
    usually there is also a secondary delay to declare Recovery cases, for known reasons



    COUNTRY Population /1000 Confirmed infected deaths upon confirmed recover Active % Confirmed infected /1000 people Current mortality Recover rate Estimated mortality up lim Estimated mortality low lim estimated deaths *
























    1 San Marino 33 259 32 27 77,22 7,8485 0,1236 0,1042


    2 Andora 76 466 17 21 91,85 6,1316 0,0365 0,0451


    3 Luxenbourg 614 2729 31 500 80,54 4,4446 0,0114 0,1832


    4 Iceland 364 1417 4 396 71,77 3,8929 0,0028 0,2795


    5 Feroe isls 52 181 0 93 48,62 3,4808 0,0000 0,5138


    6 Spain 46733 126168 11947 34219 63,41 2,6998 0,0947 0,2712


    7 Swiss 8570 20505 666 6415 65,47 2,3926 0,0325 0,3129


    8 Italy 60318 124632 15362 20996 70,83 2,0662 0,1233 0,1685


    9 Liechtenstein 39 77 1 0 98,70 1,9744 0,0130 0,0000


    10 Belgium 11516 18431 1283 3247 75,42 1,6005 0,0696 0,1762


    11 France 67022 89953 7560 15438 74,43 1,3421 0,0840 0,1716


    12 Austria 8903 11781 186 2507 77,14 1,3233 0,0158 0,2128


    13 EU 449507 534151 40896 106448 72,42 1,1883 0,0766 0,1993


    14 Deutch 83149 96092 1444 26400 71,02 1,1557 0,0150 0,2747


    15 Norway 5368 5550 62 32 98,31 1,0339 0,0112 0,0058


    16 Porugal 10277 10524 266 75 96,76 1,0240 0,0253 0,0071


    17 Netherlands 17425 16627 1651 250 88,57 0,9542 0,0993 0,0150


    18 USA 328240 312076 8499 14997 92,47 0,9508 0,0272 0,0481


    19 Esthonia 1328 1039 13 59 93,07 0,7824 0,0125 0,0568


    20 Ireland 6573 4604 137 25 96,48 0,7004 0,0298 0,0054


    21 Denmark 5823 4077 161 1283 64,58 0,7002 0,0395 0,3147


    22 sweden 10303 6553 373 205 91,18 0,6360 0,0569 0,0313


    23 UK 67547 41903 4313 135 89,39 0,6204 0,1029 0,0032


    24 Slovenia 2100 977 22 79 89,66 0,4652 0,0225 0,0809


    25 Malta 494 213 0 2 99,06 0,4312 0,0000 0,0094


    26 Czech 10650 4472 59 78 96,94 0,4199 0,0132 0,0174


    27 Cyprus 1189 426 9 33 90,14 0,3583 0,0211 0,0775


    28 Finland 5521 1882 25 300 82,73 0,3409 0,0133 0,1594


    29 Montenegro 631 201 2 1 98,51 0,3185 0,0100 0,0050


    30 Turkey 82004 23934 501 786 94,62 0,2919 0,0209 0,0328


    31 Moldova 2682 752 12 29 94,55 0,2804 0,0160 0,0386


    32 Croatia 4076 1126 12 119 88,37 0,2763 0,0107 0,1057


    33 Lithuania 2794 771 11 7 97,67 0,2759 0,0143 0,0091


    34 Lettonia 1920 509 1 1 99,61 0,2651 0,0020 0,0020


    35 Serbia 6964 1624 44 0 97,29 0,2332 0,0271 0,0000


    36 Severna Mac 2077 483 17 20 92,34 0,2325 0,0352 0,0414


    37 Romania 19402 3613 146 329 86,85 0,1862 0,0404 0,0911


    38 Bosnia 3511 624 21 30 91,83 0,1777 0,0337 0,0481


    39 Greece 10768 1673 68 78 91,27 0,1554 0,0406 0,0466


    40 Albania 2877 333 20 99 64,26 0,1157 0,0601 0,2973


    41 Poland 38386 3627 79 116 94,62 0,0945 0,0218 0,0320


    42 Slovakia 5450 471 1 10 97,66 0,0864 0,0021 0,0212


    43 Kossovo 1810 135 1 16 87,41 0,0746 0,0074 0,1185


    44 Bulgaria 7000 503 17 34 89,86 0,0719 0,0338 0,0676


    45 Hungary 9773 678 32 58 86,73 0,0694 0,0472 0,0855


    46 mainland China 1427648 82574 3333 77160 2,52 0,0578 0,0404 0,9344


    47 Belarus 9492 440 5 53 86,82 0,0464 0,0114 0,1205


    48 Russia 146745 4731 43 333 92,05 0,0322 0,0091 0,0704


    49 Ukraine 42031 1225 32 25 95,35 0,0291 0,0261 0,0204


    The EU mortality rate is 3 times that of the US. Any reasons for that?

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    Covid 19 origins

    I have located enough information to begin a serious discussion about whether or not this "Wuhan Flu" was man-made. I would like to start a seperate thread on this topic but am having trouble doing so.

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    @Duarte

    I'm in one of the epicenters of the Pandemic.

    I interrupted all physical activity a few days ago.

    I've decided to save my energy in case I need it.

    In the short term, it is probably the right decision for me, maybe :)

    I'm in excellent shape anyway!

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    E.U. mortality rates are higher than U.S. mainly because virus has been established in Europe longer. Unfortunately we Americans will catch up to you all over the pond soon enough. This bug has what I've been calling a "wrap around" effect that can bring you down two or three weeks after your first symptoms. It takes a good 35 days before someone can begin to claim they have conquered the Chinese virus... really full six months is needed.

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    I just said a prayer for you Salento. Stay safe, stay strong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yetos View Post
    there is a discussion here, to pass all population under check,
    until Octomber, when they plan to open boarders, could this be done?

    Most afraid that they will be forced to be infected,
    if that is a primary for a job, specially at jobs like transportations, international or public, (tracks, busses, ships, airplanes)
    and secondary at social and working gathering places, like cantines, cafe etc
    I guess we have to expect soms ups and downs. When the (partial) lock downs have effect (the pressure on the health care is more proportional) the measures will be loosened.....Then we will may have a rebound. Then again a (partly) lockdown. Until the situation we get some kind of herd immunity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nordicwarrior View Post
    I just said a prayer for you Salento. Stay safe, stay strong.
    Thanks, ... just got an explosion of energy :)

    I’ll pray for “Urbi et Orbi” and for you too.

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    This damn virus looks like Genghis khan, PETROLEUM PRICE is too low now.

    Genghis khan the green: invader killed so many people that carbon levels plummeted

    Genghis Khan has been branded the greenest invader in history - after his murderous conquests killed so many people that huge swathes of cultivated land returned to forest.
    The Mongol leader, who established a vast empire between the 13th and 14th centuries, helped remove nearly 700million tons of carbon from the atmosphere, claims a new study.


    And, although his methods may be difficult for environmentalists to accept, ecologists believe it may be the first ever case of successful manmade global cooling.
    ‘It's a common misconception that the human impact on climate began with the large-scale burning of coal and oil in the industrial era,’ said Julia Pongratz, who headed the research by the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology.
    ‘Actually, humans started to influence the environment thousands of years ago by changing the vegetation cover of the Earth's landscapes when we cleared forests for agriculture,’ she told Mongabay.com.
    The 700million tons of carbon absorbed as a result of the Mongol empire is about the same produced in a year from the global use of petrol.


    The Carnegie study measured the carbon impact of a number of historical events that involved a large number of deaths.
    Time periods also looked at included the Black Death in Europe, the fall of China's Ming Dynasty and the conquest of the Americas.
    All of these events share a widespread return of forests after a period of massive depopulation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dagne View Post
    Well, I have this special hissing sound coming out of my chest if I want to exhale fully. I remember it from my childhood when I used to have bronchitis so very often. Otherwise, I feel fully healthy (90% of the time), I never had any fever, just a bit of cough and itchy throat for some moments some three weeks ago. Could it mean I am a carrier of the virus, or this is just my imagination? I am not visiting anyone, especially my aunt which is in the risk group, but she has been having similar mild symptoms anyway, too (not fever though). My very good friend, her daughter and her mother who lives in other town - they also had similar symptoms. Does that mean we are all carriers?
    There's no way of knowing, Dagne. It could be a cold, or an influenza, especially as there's no high fever.

    The only way to know for sure is to get tested, and here they still won't test people unless you either present symptoms including high fever, or have come into contact with someone who is positive for it.

    Until there are lots more kits available that's the way it will be...

    The only really important test going forward will be the antibody test, but it's also going to take time so as to be as sure as humanly possible that it is accurate.


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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    The EU mortality rate is 3 times that of the US. Any reasons for that?
    EU was booming 1 month longer than USA,
    the delay of days to be reported as dead or recovered,
    and big number of new infected that import the existing, are the problem to see this
    Italy is as Greece a country of aged,
    I do notknow about Spain how much aged it is

    Notice at big countries of EU the active % is less than 80
    the USA is above 90, so Mortality will change a lot,
    I do not express it at ENglish, the term is μαθηματικες παραδοχες.
    if the above are equal to EU and USA then we can compare better,
    Yet the samples of USA are not so 'mature' to extract correct numbers of M or R
    Now is booming spread, after 7-14 days is expected to boom the numbers of dead, due to delay
    and after 24 days to boom the numbers of Recovered again due to delay of cure

    The second reason is that in USA the new infected enter fast these days,
    that drops Mortality,

    a very intresting case is UK.
    when comparing spread mortality and recovery,
    it seems like hell if infected, for now, since Recovery is very very low


    Agreement is that at all cases, death or recovery, is anounced and published fast.
    but usually death are anounced faster than recoveries

    Notice apearance order after Mortality
    UK and Netherlands, Albania Hungary show high, when comparing with Spread of infection (by eye view, not calculate)
    and USA is now lower than mainland China

    When reach Immune of the heard/pack the tense of mortality is almost zero,
    and according the entrance of data sometimes tense could be negative. (tense not Mortality)

    Lets hope that not only USA, But all the world, keep lower Mortality, or better to be Zero


    COUNTRY Population /1000 Confirmed infected deaths upon confirmed recover Active % Confirmed infected /1000 people Current mortality Recover rate


















    1 San Marino 33 259 32 27 77,2201 7,8485 0,1236 0,1042
    2 Italy 60318 124632 15362 20996 70,8277 2,0662 0,1233 0,1685
    3 UK 67547 41903 4313 135 89,3850 0,6204 0,1029 0,0032
    4 Netherlands 17425 16627 1651 250 88,5668 0,9542 0,0993 0,0150
    5 Spain 46733 126168 11947 34219 63,4091 2,6998 0,0947 0,2712
    6 France 67022 89953 7560 15438 74,4333 1,3421 0,0840 0,1716
    7 EU 449507 534151 40896 106448 72,4153 1,1883 0,0766 0,1993
    8 Belgium 11516 18431 1283 3247 75,4218 1,6005 0,0696 0,1762
    9 Albania 2877 333 20 99 64,2643 0,1157 0,0601 0,2973
    10 sweden 10303 6553 373 205 91,1796 0,6360 0,0569 0,0313
    11 Hungary 9773 678 32 58 86,7257 0,0694 0,0472 0,0855
    12 Greece 10768 1673 68 78 91,2732 0,1554 0,0406 0,0466
    13 Romania 19402 3613 146 329 86,8530 0,1862 0,0404 0,0911
    14 mainland China 1427648 82574 3333 77160 2,5202 0,0578 0,0404 0,9344
    15 Denmark 5823 4077 161 1283 64,5818 0,7002 0,0395 0,3147
    16 Andora 76 466 17 21 91,8455 6,1316 0,0365 0,0451
    17 Severna Mac 2077 483 17 20 92,3395 0,2325 0,0352 0,0414
    18 Bulgaria 7000 503 17 34 89,8608 0,0719 0,0338 0,0676
    19 Bosnia 3511 624 21 30 91,8269 0,1777 0,0337 0,0481
    20 Swiss 8570 20505 666 6415 65,4670 2,3926 0,0325 0,3129
    21 Ireland 6573 4604 137 25 96,4813 0,7004 0,0298 0,0054
    22 USA 328240 312076 8499 14997 92,4711 0,9508 0,0272 0,0481
    23 Serbia 6964 1624 44 0 97,2906 0,2332 0,0271 0,0000
    24 Ukraine 42031 1225 32 25 95,3469 0,0291 0,0261 0,0204
    25 Porugal 10277 10524 266 75 96,7598 1,0240 0,0253 0,0071
    26 Slovenia 2100 977 22 79 89,6622 0,4652 0,0225 0,0809
    27 Poland 38386 3627 79 116 94,6237 0,0945 0,0218 0,0320
    28 Cyprus 1189 426 9 33 90,1408 0,3583 0,0211 0,0775
    29 Turkey 82004 23934 501 786 94,6227 0,2919 0,0209 0,0328
    30 Moldova 2682 752 12 29 94,5479 0,2804 0,0160 0,0386
    Last edited by Yetos; 05-04-20 at 19:18.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dagne View Post
    Well, I have this special hissing sound coming out of my chest if I want to exhale fully. I remember it from my childhood when I used to have bronchitis so very often. Otherwise, I feel fully healthy (90% of the time), I never had any fever, just a bit of cough and itchy throat for some moments some three weeks ago. Could it mean I am a carrier of the virus, or this is just my imagination? I am not visiting anyone, especially my aunt which is in the risk group, but she has been having similar mild symptoms anyway, too (not fever though). My very good friend, her daughter and her mother who lives in other town - they also had similar symptoms. Does that mean we are all carriers?
    Have you lost taste and smell? Besides high fever this seems like the indicators of corona.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Northener View Post
    Have you lost taste and smell? Besides high fever this seems like the indicators of corona.
    right Taste and smell

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    Quote Originally Posted by Northener View Post
    Have you lost taste and smell? Besides high fever this seems like the indicators of corona.
    looks like she has a symptom of asthma. (maybe b/c of carpet?)

    windows are all closed.

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    Now it's time for the antibody testing.

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post

    Now it's time for the antibody testing.
    Thy will be done.


    a staff member at the aids service center of new york city holding an antibody testing kit. mike segar/reuters


    "Henry Schein last week announced the availability of hundreds of thousands of antibody tests in the US that can deliver results within 15 minutes. The company said it expected "significantly increased availability" in April.
    In Colorado, United Biomedical is working with one county to test 8,000 residents for coronavirus antibodies.
    Other US companies are already selling antibody tests abroad. The California biotech company Biomerica sells coronavirus antibody tests for less than $10 in Europe and the Middle East, while Chembio Diagnostics, a medical-device company based in New York, is sending its antibody tests to Brazil and plans to study them in the US, Reuters reported last week.
    The UK government bought 3.5 million at-home antibody tests last week and is looking to distribute them to people who are self-isolating as soon as possible, The Guardian reported. Australia has ordered 1.5 million tests."

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    Quote Originally Posted by johen View Post
    looks like she has a symptom of asthma. (maybe b/c of carpet?)

    windows are all closed.
    The flu or even a bad cold can trigger that wheezing. I've had it too.

    My daughter used to get it so badly with colds that the first time it happened I rushed her to the emergency room.

    When it starts I have medication for it.

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Northener View Post
    By no means this is a serum! But a mixture of Elderberry and Echinacea has a good potential to prevent you against the coronavirus.

    It's of course no miracle and we have to stay sceptic, but scientific research is promising in this respect.

    I.Elderberry against corona:


    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...rticle_849.pdf

    II. Echina against corona:



    https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-15282/v2

    Regarding the last research I'm somewhat more skeptical because it's partly a company who has an interest that is participating, on the other hand it's a very respected Swiss institute that is participating.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiez_Laboratory

    For me reasons enough to give it the benefit of the doubt!!!
    Sorry, not falling for the echinacea against coronavirus hype. It does nothing against the cold, another coronavirus.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    Sorry, not falling for the echinacea against coronavirus hype. It does nothing against the cold, another coronavirus.
    Smart man.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post


    Now it's time for the antibody testing.
    Stanford tested 3,200 people over the weekend for anti-bodies. I want to know where I can go to get one done.

    https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/0...19-antibodies/
    There can be no covenants between men and lions

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    Plans were actually in place nationally and in California for epidemic response but were dropped by subsequent administrations. You can always count on human beings making mistakes.

    Reason? Too costly and other needs held to be a priority.

    "California actually *did* have an emergency medical stockpile—until Gov. Jerry Brown dismantled it...50 million N95 respirators, 2,400 portable ventilators and mobile hospital kits to set up 21,000 additional patient beds wherever they were needed."
    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...ls-ventilators


    In the summer of 2005, President George W. Bush was on vacation at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, when he began flipping through an advanced copy of a new book about the 1918 flu pandemic. He couldn't put it down.
    When he returned to Washington, he called his top homeland security adviser into the Oval Office and gave her the galley of historian John M. Barry's "The Great Influenza," which told the chilling tale of the mysterious plague that "would kill more people than the outbreak of any other disease in human history."
    "You've got to read this," Fran Townsend remembers the president telling her. "He said, 'Look, this happens every 100 years. We need a national strategy.'"


    Thus was born the nation's most comprehensive pandemic plan -- a playbook that included diagrams for a global early warning system, funding to develop new, rapid vaccine technology, and a robust national stockpile of critical supplies, such as face masks and ventilators, Townsend said.
    The effort was intense over the ensuing three years, including exercises where cabinet officials gamed out their responses, but it was not sustained.

    But elements of that effort have formed the foundation for the national response to the coronavirus pandemic underway right now.

    In a November 2005 speech at the National Institutes of Health, Bush laid out proposals in granular detail -- describing with stunning prescience how a pandemic in the United States would unfold. Among those in the audience was Dr. Anthony Fauci, the leader of the current crisis response, who was then and still is now the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

    "A pandemic is a lot like a forest fire," Bush said at the time. "If caught early it might be extinguished with limited damage. If allowed to smolder, undetected, it can grow to an inferno that can spread quickly beyond our ability to control it."

    The president recognized that an outbreak was a different kind of disaster than the ones the federal government had been designed to address.


    "To respond to a pandemic, we need medical personnel and adequate supplies of equipment," Bush said. "In a pandemic, everything from syringes to hospital beds, respirators masks and protective equipment would be in short supply."

    Bush told the gathered scientists that they would need to develop a vaccine in record time.

    "If a pandemic strikes, our country must have a surge capacity in place that will allow us to bring a new vaccine on line quickly and manufacture enough to immunize every American against the pandemic strain," he said.

    Bush set out to spend $7 billion building out his plan. His cabinet secretaries urged their staffs to take preparations seriously. The government launched a website, www.pandemicflu.gov, that is still in use today. But as time passed, it became increasingly difficult to justify the continued funding, staffing and attention, Bossert said.

    "You need to have annual budget commitment. You need to have institutions that can survive any one administration. And you need to have leadership experience," Bossert said. "All three of those can be effected by our wonderful and unique form of government in which you transfer power every four years."


    Bush declined, through a spokesman, to comment on the unfolding crisis or discuss the current response. But his remarks from 15 years ago still resonate.


    "If we wait for a pandemic to appear," he warned, "it will be too late to prepare. And one day many lives could be needlessly lost because we failed to act today."
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/geor...ry?id=69979013

    Some of the usual haters show up in the comments, of course. Doesn't change this prescience in both men, and the error in dropping the programs.






  23. #1223
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    Still strong parabolic advance, not showing signs of weakness..



  24. #1224
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    Sorry, not falling for the echinacea against coronavirus hype. It does nothing against the cold, another coronavirus.
    So fake scientist? ;)

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dema View Post
    Still strong parabolic advance, not showing signs of weakness..



    What a specialist said is really true. It is really strange that this virus are making even young adult with too strong immunity to be dangerous and old people with weak one except child. How to explain that?


    Quote Originally Posted by johen View Post
    " I am an epidemiologist with eight years of field experience, including time on the front lines of the isolation and quarantine efforts during the 2009 swine flu pandemic. One month ago, I was under the impression that the death reports due to COVID-19 circulation in China were giving us an unfair picture of its mortality rate. I wrote a piece saying that the death rate of an emerging disease always looks bad in the early stages of an outbreak, but is likely to drop once better data become available. After waiting for eight weeks, I am now worried that these new data — data indicating that the virus has a low fatality rate — may not arrive.

    For now, Americans need to prepare themselves that the next 12 months are going to look very different. Vacations may have to be canceled. Social interactions will look different. And risk management is something we’re going to have to think about every morning when we wake up. The coronavirus epidemic is not going to extinguish itself. It is not in another country. It is not just the cold and flu. And it is not going away."
    Maciej F. Boni is as associate professor of biology at Pennsylvania State University

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