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Thread: New Coronavirus in China

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    The tests coming out are saying it actually makes the death rate higher. I posted it above somewhere. Maybe it does help prophylactically or at certain points in the cycle?

    I was always a bit skeptical. It's used for lupus and autoimmune arthritis and psoriasis, to "lower" the immune system. On the other hand, I know that people have taken it for years with absolutely no ill effects so long as the doses aren't too high (there's possible vision damage so you have to be tested every six months). Sometimes it even makes them more resistant to flus, colds, etc., because it somehow "straightens" out the immune system.

    The original drugs they uses were the biologics like Humira, but those are prohibitively expensive, so they went to plaquenil. I have no idea what things like Humira would do. The S.O.B.s that make it were supposed to have released their patent years ago but have been delaying everything through a court case. It's 1000/mo. If it did help with Covid one benefit would be to put an end to that crap.
    Yeah all of these immunosuppressants are indicated for overactive immune systems. Yes they make you vulnerable to opportunistic infections and that's why azithromycin is sometimes given along with them. The only time they should be taken is when you have an out of control immune system. A delicate dance between immunosupressed and out of control.

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    After trending down to 0 our county's infections have gone up again by 9 yesterday and 10 today. I am wondering if it is an artifact of more testing, particularly with the new antibody test or some people decided to have a party. From what I understand the antibody test has a high false positive rates.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    Unbelievable...I always agreed with Virginia Wolffe that I wanted a room of my own, but a whole house? For years?
    "40% of swedish households are just one person! "


    Who needs a formal lockdown. :)

    You'd think that would protect them, and then add in all the SNUS/tobacco chewing if scientists are right about that, yet they have 10 times the cases of the other Scandinavian countries, so this bug is obviously tricky.


    It is more than 50% of single households in Sweden now.

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    Maybe the coronavirus was lurking earlier than we thought?

    CHICAGO — In January, a mystery illness swept through a call center in a skyscraper on Michigan Avenue in Chicago. Close to 30 people in one department alone had symptoms — dry, deep coughs and fevers they could not shake. When they gradually returned to work after taking sick days, they sat in their cubicles looking wan and tired.
    “I’ve started to think it was the coronavirus,” said Julie Parks, a 63-year-old employee who was among the sick. “I may have had it, but I can’t be sure. It’s limbo.”
    The revelation this week that a death in the United States in early February was the result of the coronavirus has significantly altered the understanding of how early the virus may have been circulating in this country. Researchers now believe that hidden outbreaks were creeping through cities like Chicago, New York, Seattle and Boston in January and February, earlier than previously known.
    The new timeline has lent credence to a question on the minds of many Americans: Did I already have the coronavirus?
    The retroactive search is happening on many levels. People who had suffered dreadful bouts with flulike illnesses are now wondering whether it had been the coronavirus. Doctors are thinking back to unexplained cases. Medical examiners are poring over their records looking for possible misdiagnosed deaths. And local politicians are demanding investigations.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/amid-sign...122540809.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    Is Spain that densely populated?

    Greece is pretty densely populated but they jumped on it early so deaths were minimized. Should another dimension be how fast were social distancing measures imposed?
    I'm sure that's another factor.

    As to population density, if you look at the whole country of Spain, no it's not, but there's huge density in places like Barcelona. That's why this person thought it was more helpful to look at "lived in" density. Smart of him.

    Take a look at Italy, for example; to start with, we don't have very much habitable space because so much is taken up by mountains.


    As I've mentioned before, both my father's and mother's mountain or foothill villages are virtually empty except for July and August and maybe Christmas.

    Probably Greece is much the same.

    However, Greece had very few cases because it doesn't get the winter traffic they get in Lombardia, and then they closed down when they had only, what, ten cases? Very few, anyway.

    In Italy, and maybe in Belgium, I think it was spreading way before the first cases were identified. Probably the first people were young and had either no or slight symptoms. By the time they knew it was there it was all over.

    You should go to the Next Strain site. They're doing very good work.

    Then, living styles matter if you have a phantom virus spreading unknown to everyone. As I said, look at the figures for Swedish households, or how much less contact the Germans have with grandparents than do Italians.


    Non si fa il proprio dovere perchè qualcuno ci dica grazie, lo si fa per principio, per se stessi, per la propria dignità. Oriana Fallaci

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    You should move down to Florida. You can set the thermostat high enough so the air-conditioning does not come on too often. Just enough to ward off mold and mildew.
    In that table the temperature was set between 70-75F which means air-conditioning.
    I had a condo in Sarasota for more than twenty years. We sold it late last year! That's why I'm sitting here with 33,000 confirmed Covid cases in my county and 1500 deaths. (Of course, there's 1.4 million people in my county.) I'd have to throttle my husband, though. He puts the air-conditioning on in the spring.

    We can always buy again if they ever open things up enough to allow for viewing. Let me know if you see deals coming on the market.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    I had a condo in Sarasota for more than twenty years. We sold it late last year! That's why I'm sitting here with 33,000 confirmed Covid cases in my county and 1500 deaths. (Of course, there's 1.4 million people in my county.) I'd have to throttle my husband, though. He puts the air-conditioning on in the spring.

    We can always buy again if they ever open things up enough to allow for viewing. Let me know if you see deals coming on the market.
    So far I have not seen any real estate deals. The real estate agents are holding the line. No open houses and no private showings unless you are serious. At least for the properties we are interested in. On the other hand our real estate situation is kind of unsettled for the moment. My wife is retiring early at the end of the year.We have to decide if we want to live in the US for the majority of the time and then go to Europe for a month's vacation or live 6 months in the US and 6 months in Greece. Different real estate options for the two different scenarios.

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    In our area, out of 1000 people tested for antibodies, only 1% had immunity.

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    According to a 2018 paper, far UV-C light (below 222 micrometer wavelength) maybe used to kill viruses and microbes in public places and in air-conditioning ducts:

    WASHINGTON — President Trump’s mention Thursday of treating COVID-19 with ultraviolet light was part of a rambling digression that included speculation about administering disinfectants to patients, prompting confusion and alarm from medical experts.
    The president’s invocation of pseudoscience — which he claimed on Friday had been a joke intended “sarcastically” to provoke reporters — overshadowed the news from the briefing about evidence, first reported last week by Yahoo News, that ultraviolet light does destroy the coronavirus. Researchers have shown it can be used to disinfect surfaces and kill viruses in ambient air in ways that could be used to reduce transmission in public spaces.
    “Continuous very low dose-rate far-UVC light in indoor public locations is a promising, safe and inexpensive tool to reduce the spread of airborne-mediated microbial diseases,” wrote a team of researchers in a 2018 paper published in Scientific Reports.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/ultraviol...090000567.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    In our area, out of 1000 people tested for antibodies, only 1% had immunity.
    Did those 1000 people also test 100% positive for Coronavirus? Because healthy people not exposed to the virus would not have the antibodies.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovialis View Post
    Did those 1000 people also test 100% positive for Coronavirus? Because healthy people not exposed to the virus would not have the antibodies.
    Nope we have no data of their stats as far as positive or negative for coronavirus. Just antibodies.

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    Genetic Susceptibility to Coronavirus infection: Lower



    free results from uploaded raw-data at sequencing.com

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    I just don't think anybody really knows what's going on.

    This is the data from Italy.
    "Background: The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been spread-ing globally for months, yet the infection fatality ratio of the disease is still uncertain. This is partly because of inconsistencies in testing and death reporting standards across countries. Our purpose is to provide accurate estimates which do not rely on testing and death count data directly but only use population level statistics. Methods: We collected demographic and death records data from the Italian Institute of Statistics. We focus on the area in Italy that experienced the initial outbreak of COVID-19 and estimated a Bayesian model fitting age-stratified mortality data from 2020 and previous years. We also assessed the sensitivity of our estimates to alternative assumptions on the proportion of population infected. Findings: We estimate an overall infection fatality rate of 1.29% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.89 - 2.01), as well as large differences by age, with a low infection fatality rate of 0.05% for under 60 year old (CrI 0-.19) and a substantially higher 4.25% (CrI 3.01-6.39) for people above 60 years of age. In our sensitivity analysis, we found that even under extreme assumptions, our method delivered useful information. For instance, even if only 10% of the population were infected, the infection fatality rate would not rise above 0.2% for people under 60. Interpretation: Our empirical estimates based on population level data show a sharp difference in fatality rates between young and old people and firmly rule out overall fatality ratios below 0.5% in populations with more than 30% over 60 years old."
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....18.20070912v1

    This is a paper from the University of Miami which states that...
    "UM researchers used statistical methods to account for the limitations of the antibody test, which is known to generate some false positive results. The researchers say they are 95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, with 6% representing the best estimate.That would mean about 165,000 estimated infections in Miami-Dade, with the margin of error equating to 123,000 residents on the low end and 221,000 residents on the high end."

    That would be an IFR of .14%.


    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/cor...242260406.html

    With all due respect to them, how can that be true?

    In order for that .14 fatality rate to be correct, almost every single person in New York State would have to have been infected, and that's not possible.

    NYS population is 19,450,000 (19.45m)NYS has 21,908 Corvid-19 DeathsIf we say fatality rate is 0.14% then you would need almost 100% of entire New York State infected.19,450,000 x 0.14 = 27,230 Deaths

    I've seen reports that the tests spew out 5-6% false positives. Could it be even worse? Could it be picking up antibodies to other coronaviruses as well, i.e. a cold, the flue? Shouldn't they have a better handle on that before predictions are made?

    NYS population is 19,450,000 (19.45m)NYS has 21,908 Corvid-19 DeathsIf we say fatality rate is 0.14% then you would need almost 100% of entire New York State infected.19,450,000 x 0.14 = 27,230 Deaths

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    Coronavirus outbreak in a South Korea call center. Desks were packed into an open space. There was an airconditioning system. Who knows when the filters were changed.

    Haven't seen this in movie theaters, so many it's not just close contact, but the fact they were talking all day. People talk in airplanes too so not good news for airlines, trains, buses.

    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    I just don't think anybody really knows what's going on.

    This is the data from Italy.
    "Background: The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been spread-ing globally for months, yet the infection fatality ratio of the disease is still uncertain. This is partly because of inconsistencies in testing and death reporting standards across countries. Our purpose is to provide accurate estimates which do not rely on testing and death count data directly but only use population level statistics. Methods: We collected demographic and death records data from the Italian Institute of Statistics. We focus on the area in Italy that experienced the initial outbreak of COVID-19 and estimated a Bayesian model fitting age-stratified mortality data from 2020 and previous years. We also assessed the sensitivity of our estimates to alternative assumptions on the proportion of population infected. Findings: We estimate an overall infection fatality rate of 1.29% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.89 - 2.01), as well as large differences by age, with a low infection fatality rate of 0.05% for under 60 year old (CrI 0-.19) and a substantially higher 4.25% (CrI 3.01-6.39) for people above 60 years of age. In our sensitivity analysis, we found that even under extreme assumptions, our method delivered useful information. For instance, even if only 10% of the population were infected, the infection fatality rate would not rise above 0.2% for people under 60. Interpretation: Our empirical estimates based on population level data show a sharp difference in fatality rates between young and old people and firmly rule out overall fatality ratios below 0.5% in populations with more than 30% over 60 years old."
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....18.20070912v1

    This is a paper from the University of Miami which states that...
    "UM researchers used statistical methods to account for the limitations of the antibody test, which is known to generate some false positive results. The researchers say they are 95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, with 6% representing the best estimate.That would mean about 165,000 estimated infections in Miami-Dade, with the margin of error equating to 123,000 residents on the low end and 221,000 residents on the high end."

    That would be an IFR of .14%.


    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/cor...242260406.html

    With all due respect to them, how can that be true?

    In order for that .14 fatality rate to be correct, almost every single person in New York State would have to have been infected, and that's not possible.

    NYS population is 19,450,000 (19.45m)NYS has 21,908 Corvid-19 DeathsIf we say fatality rate is 0.14% then you would need almost 100% of entire New York State infected.19,450,000 x 0.14 = 27,230 Deaths

    I've seen reports that the tests spew out 5-6% false positives. Could it be even worse? Could it be picking up antibodies to other coronaviruses as well, i.e. a cold, the flue? Shouldn't they have a better handle on that before predictions are made?

    NYS population is 19,450,000 (19.45m)NYS has 21,908 Corvid-19 DeathsIf we say fatality rate is 0.14% then you would need almost 100% of entire New York State infected.19,450,000 x 0.14 = 27,230 Deaths
    The antibody test from a Chinese company is pretty much worthless. Both the Stanford study and the USC study used the antibody test from the same Chinese company. The Stanford study also had respondents that were not randomly picked but volunteered on Facebook. I don't understand, design of experiments does not go out of the window because we are in a pandemic.

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    China's coronavirus death count could be four times higher than the "official" count. Wow, who would have thunk it? :) And that's with every person who showed any symptoms at all being taken from their homes and sent to huge quarantine camps.

    "Infections would have been 232,000 in China as of Feb. 20 if the calculation of cases confirmed by “clinical diagnosis” had been applied throughout the outbreak, the Lancet reported. That compares to the 55,508 cases announced at the time by the country’s National Health Commission, according to the report."


    What have we been saying about masks?
    New cases daily went down by half when masks were required for all staff and all patients. Most of the rest were probably picked up outside the hospital.
    "
    https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/20...sks-infections


    How accurate are the antibody tests:

    Surveys of residents in the Bay Area, Los Angeles and New York this week found that substantial percentages tested positive for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, the official name of the new coronavirus. In New York City, the figure was said to be as high as 21 percent. Elsewhere, it was closer to 3 percent.

    "
    Of the 14 tests, only three delivered consistently reliable results. Even the best had some flaws.
    In the new research, researchers found that only one of the tests never delivered a so-called false positive — that is, it never mistakenly signaled antibodies in people who did not have them."

    Two other tests did not deliver false-positive results 99 percent of the time.
    But the converse was not true. Even these three tests detected antibodies in infected people only 90 percent of the time, at best.

    Four of the tests produced false-positive rates ranging from 11 percent to 16 percent; many of the rest hovered around 5 percent.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/h...ody-tests.html

    The authors of the studies which published some of these antibody rates, like the University of Miami one, had better check what test they used.

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    It is an earthquake still in progress...
    It happens in seconds, but feels like centuries
    We dont even yet forestall to come out... to count the "damages".


    The Sun in full light,-glaze the empty streets... indiscreetely enter to bedrooms.
    The Air mves the tree shadows up on the walls..,
    Years now, I have moved all that paintings... less is better.


    I heard someone saying:<<Soon we will be out>>,
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    I bench up to my couch.


    I'll wait to meet my family again...

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    If God dnt make jokes to us...
    ...and this man is president of United States of America.


    Then: Yes maybe it is true, that the carpenter's boy is son of God...

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    ... <<And yes, evrytime God I imagine my self slaping you, as hard i can....
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    Coronavirus outbreak in a South Korea call center. Desks were packed into an open space. There was an airconditioning system. Who knows when the filters were changed.

    Haven't seen this in movie theaters, so many it's not just close contact, but the fact they were talking all day. People talk in airplanes too so not good news for airlines, trains, buses.

    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article

    This is really interesting!
    The infected people in the call centre where seated like that (marked by blue):


    I think it must related to air conditioning - otherwise, it is impossible to see a pattern - it did not spread around one person which it should if the virus was spreading by "droplets method", besides it virus attack rate among other people in the building - is considerably less - 8,5%, compared to 43,5% among call centre employees. If employees of one side of the call centre were counted, the attack rate must be been even higher - among 137 desks (we don't know if they all were filled by people) 80 persons got infected, so the attack rate must be at least 58%.

    This is the extract from the study:

    We tested 1,143 people for COVID-19 - 922 employees, 201 residents, and 20 visitors.
    We identified 97 confirmed COVID-19 case-patients in building X, indicating an attack rate of 8.5%. However, if we restrict our results the 11th floor, the attack rate was as high as 43.5%.
    This outbreak shows alarmingly that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can be exceptionally contagious in crowded office settings such as a call center. The magnitude of the outbreak illustrates how a high-density work environment can become a high-risk site for the spread of COVID-19 and potentially a source of further transmission. Nearly all the case-patients were on one side of the building on 11th floor. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, the predecessor of SARS-CoV-2, exhibited multiple superspreading events in 2002 and 2003, in which a few persons infected others, resulting in many secondary cases. Despite considerable interaction between workers on different floors of building X in the elevators and lobby, spread of COVID-19 was limited almost exclusively to the 11th floor, which indicates that the duration of interaction (or contact) was likely the main facilitator for further spreading of SARS-CoV-2.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dagne View Post
    This is really interesting!
    The infected people in the call centre where seated like that (marked by blue):


    I think it must related to air conditioning - otherwise, it is impossible to see a pattern - it did not spread around one person which it should if the virus was spreading by "droplets method", besides it virus attack rate among other people in the building - is considerably less - 8,5%, compared to 43,5% among call centre employees. If employees of one side of the call centre were counted, the attack rate must be been even higher - among 137 desks (we don't know if they all were filled by people) 80 persons got infected, so the attack rate must be at least 58%.

    This is the extract from the study:

    We tested 1,143 people for COVID-19 - 922 employees, 201 residents, and 20 visitors.
    We identified 97 confirmed COVID-19 case-patients in building X, indicating an attack rate of 8.5%. However, if we restrict our results the 11th floor, the attack rate was as high as 43.5%.
    This outbreak shows alarmingly that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can be exceptionally contagious in crowded office settings such as a call center. The magnitude of the outbreak illustrates how a high-density work environment can become a high-risk site for the spread of COVID-19 and potentially a source of further transmission. Nearly all the case-patients were on one side of the building on 11th floor. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, the predecessor of SARS-CoV-2, exhibited multiple superspreading events in 2002 and 2003, in which a few persons infected others, resulting in many secondary cases. Despite considerable interaction between workers on different floors of building X in the elevators and lobby, spread of COVID-19 was limited almost exclusively to the 11th floor, which indicates that the duration of interaction (or contact) was likely the main facilitator for further spreading of SARS-CoV-2.
    Low partitions open floor plan cubicle culture is a Petri dish. Those people should work from home until the danger is gone. They probably need the far-UVC lamps overhead and in the air-conditioning ducts (see post #1509).

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    This is what I find about Duct Cleaning standards on Wiki

    Duct cleaning

    The position of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is that "If no one in your household suffers from allergies or unexplained symptoms or illnesses and if, after a visual inspection of the inside of the ducts, you see no indication that your air ducts are contaminated with large deposits of dust or mold (no musty odor or visible mold growth), having your air ducts cleaned is probably unnecessary."[4] A thorough duct cleaning done by a professional duct cleaner will remove dust, cobwebs, debris, pet hair, rodent hair and droppings, paper clips, calcium deposits, children's toys, and whatever else might collect inside. Ideally, the interior surface will be shiny and bright after cleaning. Insulated fiber glass duct liner and duct board can be cleaned with special non-metallic bristles. Fabric ducting can be washed or vacuumed using typical household appliances.
    Duct cleaning may be personally justifiable for that very reason: occupants may not want to have their house air circulated through a duct passage that is not as clean as the rest of the house. However, duct cleaning will not usually change the quality of the breathing air, nor will it significantly affect airflows or heating costs.


    Sings when you need to clean your ventilation:

    Signs and indicators


    • Sweeping and dusting the furniture needs to be done more than usual.
    • After cleaning, there is still left over visible dust floating around the house.
    • After or during sleep, occupants experience headaches, nasal congestion, or other sinus problems.
    • Rooms in the house have little or no air flow coming from the vents.
    • Occupants are constantly getting sick or are experiencing more allergies than usual.
    • There is a musty or stale odor when turning on the furnace or air conditioner.
    • Occupants are experiencing signs of sickness, e.g. fatigue, headache, sneezing, stuffy or running nose, irritability, nausea, dry or burning sensation in eyes, nose and throat.


    Commercial inspection

    In commercial settings, regular inspection of ductwork is recommended by several standards. One standard recommends inspecting supply ducts every 1–2 years, return ducts every 1–2 years, and air handling units annually.[5] Another recommends visual inspection of internally lined ducts annually[6] Duct cleaning should be based on the results of those inspections.
    Inspections are typically visual, looking for water damage or biological growth.[5][6][7] When visual inspection needs to be validated numerically, a vacuum test (VT) or deposit thickness test (DTT) can be performed. A duct with less than 0.75 mg/100m2 is considered to be clean, per the NADCA standard.[7] A Hong Kong standard lists surface deposit limits of 1g/m2 for supply and return ducts and 6g/m2 for exhaust ducts, or a maximum deposit thickness of 60 µm in supply and return ducts, and 180 µm for exhaust ducts.[8] Another UK standard recommends ducts cleaning if measured bacterial content is more than 29 colony forming units (CFU) per 10 cm2; contamination is classified as "low" below 10 CFU/cm2, "medium" at up to 20 CFU/cm2, and "high" when measured above 20 CFU/cm2.[9]


    I am afraid this does not sound good to me at all - it is an open gate for SARS-2, unless really good standard (at least MERV-13) filters are used (below is a link which explains in more detail about filter standards).
    Installing a better filter in your system may be challenging, because it is way above the standard requirements and most system are not fit to work with high density filters.

    This is a discussion about filters which can catch coronavirus size particles:
    https://www.energyvanguard.com/blog/...ut-coronavirus

  24. #1524
    Regular Member ΠΑΝΑΞ's Avatar
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    10-03-14
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    Country: Greece



    Quote Originally Posted by Yetos View Post


    Αναρωτιεμαι τι θελει να πει ο ποιητης,

    I wonder what the poet wants to say to us,

    I scratch my head,

    ouf, I love maths, not literature
    I am as well at ha-ha mode, just finish my lunch, "beef-techs" and salad.
    Anyway, I mean -for the previous- that everything will go fine.
    Works for all of "us".


    At the geography we had the problem Yetos...
    << this is a planet to call China? -Really?>>,



  25. #1525
    Regular Member ΠΑΝΑΞ's Avatar
    Join Date
    10-03-14
    Posts
    297


    Country: Greece



    Quote Originally Posted by Yetos View Post


    Αναρωτιεμαι τι θελει να πει ο ποιητης,

    I wonder what the poet wants to say to us,

    I scratch my head,

    ouf, I love maths, not literature
    Sorry for the deraiment, guys.
    (I suppose it was the lockdown repurcussion effects, therefore -accidentally- related to our theme. )


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