Health New Coronavirus in China

The tests coming out are saying it actually makes the death rate higher. I posted it above somewhere. Maybe it does help prophylactically or at certain points in the cycle?

I was always a bit skeptical. It's used for lupus and autoimmune arthritis and psoriasis, to "lower" the immune system. On the other hand, I know that people have taken it for years with absolutely no ill effects so long as the doses aren't too high (there's possible vision damage so you have to be tested every six months). Sometimes it even makes them more resistant to flus, colds, etc., because it somehow "straightens" out the immune system.

The original drugs they uses were the biologics like Humira, but those are prohibitively expensive, so they went to plaquenil. I have no idea what things like Humira would do. The S.O.B.s that make it were supposed to have released their patent years ago but have been delaying everything through a court case. It's 1000/mo. If it did help with Covid one benefit would be to put an end to that crap.

Yeah all of these immunosuppressants are indicated for overactive immune systems. Yes they make you vulnerable to opportunistic infections and that's why azithromycin is sometimes given along with them. The only time they should be taken is when you have an out of control immune system. A delicate dance between immunosupressed and out of control.
 
After trending down to 0 our county's infections have gone up again by 9 yesterday and 10 today. I am wondering if it is an artifact of more testing, particularly with the new antibody test or some people decided to have a party. From what I understand the antibody test has a high false positive rates.
 
Unbelievable...I always agreed with Virginia Wolffe that I wanted a room of my own, but a whole house? For years?
"40% of swedish households are just one person! "


Who needs a formal lockdown. :)

You'd think that would protect them, and then add in all the SNUS/tobacco chewing if scientists are right about that, yet they have 10 times the cases of the other Scandinavian countries, so this bug is obviously tricky.

77342c93-05fb-4b97-8a49-cdc5f127e50c


It is more than 50% of single households in Sweden now.
 
Maybe the coronavirus was lurking earlier than we thought?

[FONT=&quot]CHICAGO — In January, a mystery illness swept through a call center in a skyscraper on Michigan Avenue in Chicago. Close to 30 people in one department alone had symptoms — dry, deep coughs and fevers they could not shake. When they gradually returned to work after taking sick days, they sat in their cubicles looking wan and tired.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“I’ve started to think it was the coronavirus,” said Julie Parks, a 63-year-old employee who was among the sick. “I may have had it, but I can’t be sure. It’s limbo.”[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The revelation this week that a death in the United States in early February was the result of the coronavirus has significantly altered the understanding of how early the virus may have been circulating in this country. Researchers now believe that hidden outbreaks were creeping through cities like Chicago, New York, Seattle and Boston in January and February, earlier than previously known.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The new timeline has lent credence to a question on the minds of many Americans: Did I already have the coronavirus?[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The retroactive search is happening on many levels. People who had suffered dreadful bouts with flulike illnesses are now wondering whether it had been the coronavirus. Doctors are thinking back to unexplained cases. Medical examiners are poring over their records looking for possible misdiagnosed deaths. And local politicians are demanding investigations.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/amid-signs-virus-came-earlier-122540809.html[/FONT]
 
Is Spain that densely populated?

Greece is pretty densely populated but they jumped on it early so deaths were minimized. Should another dimension be how fast were social distancing measures imposed?

I'm sure that's another factor.

As to population density, if you look at the whole country of Spain, no it's not, but there's huge density in places like Barcelona. That's why this person thought it was more helpful to look at "lived in" density. Smart of him.

Take a look at Italy, for example; to start with, we don't have very much habitable space because so much is taken up by mountains.

Map_of_population_density_in_Italy_%282011_census%29_alt_colours.jpg

As I've mentioned before, both my father's and mother's mountain or foothill villages are virtually empty except for July and August and maybe Christmas.

Probably Greece is much the same.

However, Greece had very few cases because it doesn't get the winter traffic they get in Lombardia, and then they closed down when they had only, what, ten cases? Very few, anyway.

In Italy, and maybe in Belgium, I think it was spreading way before the first cases were identified. Probably the first people were young and had either no or slight symptoms. By the time they knew it was there it was all over.

You should go to the Next Strain site. They're doing very good work.

Then, living styles matter if you have a phantom virus spreading unknown to everyone. As I said, look at the figures for Swedish households, or how much less contact the Germans have with grandparents than do Italians.
 
You should move down to Florida. You can set the thermostat high enough so the air-conditioning does not come on too often. Just enough to ward off mold and mildew.
In that table the temperature was set between 70-75F which means air-conditioning.

I had a condo in Sarasota for more than twenty years. We sold it late last year!:sad-2: That's why I'm sitting here with 33,000 confirmed Covid cases in my county and 1500 deaths. (Of course, there's 1.4 million people in my county.) I'd have to throttle my husband, though. He puts the air-conditioning on in the spring.:annoyed:

We can always buy again if they ever open things up enough to allow for viewing. Let me know if you see deals coming on the market. :)
 
I had a condo in Sarasota for more than twenty years. We sold it late last year!:sad-2: That's why I'm sitting here with 33,000 confirmed Covid cases in my county and 1500 deaths. (Of course, there's 1.4 million people in my county.) I'd have to throttle my husband, though. He puts the air-conditioning on in the spring.:annoyed:

We can always buy again if they ever open things up enough to allow for viewing. Let me know if you see deals coming on the market. :)

So far I have not seen any real estate deals. The real estate agents are holding the line. No open houses and no private showings unless you are serious. At least for the properties we are interested in. On the other hand our real estate situation is kind of unsettled for the moment. My wife is retiring early at the end of the year.We have to decide if we want to live in the US for the majority of the time and then go to Europe for a month's vacation or live 6 months in the US and 6 months in Greece. Different real estate options for the two different scenarios.
 
In our area, out of 1000 people tested for antibodies, only 1% had immunity.
 
According to a 2018 paper, far UV-C light (below 222 micrometer wavelength) maybe used to kill viruses and microbes in public places and in air-conditioning ducts:

[FONT=&quot]WASHINGTON — President Trump’s mention Thursday of treating COVID-19 with ultraviolet light was part of a rambling digression that included speculation about administering disinfectants to patients, prompting confusion and alarm from medical experts.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The president’s invocation of pseudoscience — which he claimed on Friday had been a joke intended “sarcastically” to provoke reporters — overshadowed the news from the briefing about evidence, first reported last week by Yahoo News, that ultraviolet light does destroy the coronavirus. Researchers have shown it can be used to disinfect surfaces and kill viruses in ambient air in ways that could be used to reduce transmission in public spaces.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“Continuous very low dose-rate far-UVC light in indoor public locations is a promising, safe and inexpensive tool to reduce the spread of airborne-mediated microbial diseases,” wrote a team of researchers in a 2018 paper published in Scientific Reports.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ultravio...-not-in-the-way-trump-imagines-090000567.html[/FONT]
 
In our area, out of 1000 people tested for antibodies, only 1% had immunity.

Did those 1000 people also test 100% positive for Coronavirus? Because healthy people not exposed to the virus would not have the antibodies.
 
Did those 1000 people also test 100% positive for Coronavirus? Because healthy people not exposed to the virus would not have the antibodies.

Nope we have no data of their stats as far as positive or negative for coronavirus. Just antibodies.
 
Genetic Susceptibility to Coronavirus infection: Lower

gwjH0kX.jpg


free results from uploaded raw-data at sequencing.com
 
I just don't think anybody really knows what's going on.

This is the data from Italy.
"[FONT=&quot]Background: The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been spread-ing globally for months, yet the infection fatality ratio of the disease is still uncertain. This is partly because of inconsistencies in testing and death reporting standards across countries. Our purpose is to provide accurate estimates which do not rely on testing and death count data directly but only use population level statistics. Methods: We collected demographic and death records data from the Italian Institute of Statistics. We focus on the area in Italy that experienced the initial outbreak of COVID-19 and estimated a Bayesian model fitting age-stratified mortality data from 2020 and previous years. We also assessed the sensitivity of our estimates to alternative assumptions on the proportion of population infected. Findings: We estimate an overall infection fatality rate of 1.29% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.89 - 2.01), as well as large differences by age, with a low infection fatality rate of 0.05% for under 60 year old (CrI 0-.19) and a substantially higher 4.25% (CrI 3.01-6.39) for people above 60 years of age. In our sensitivity analysis, we found that even under extreme assumptions, our method delivered useful information. For instance, even if only 10% of the population were infected, the infection fatality rate would not rise above 0.2% for people under 60. Interpretation: Our empirical estimates based on population level data show a sharp difference in fatality rates between young and old people and firmly rule out overall fatality ratios below 0.5% in populations with more than 30% over 60 years old."
[/FONT]
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070912v1

This is a paper from the University of Miami which states that...
"UM researchers used statistical methods to account for the limitations of the antibody test, which is known to generate some false positive results. The researchers say they are 95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, with 6% representing the best estimate.That would mean about 165,000 estimated infections in Miami-Dade, with the margin of error equating to 123,000 residents on the low end and 221,000 residents on the high end."

That would be an IFR of .14%.


https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html

With all due respect to them, how can that be true?

In order for that .14 fatality rate to be correct, almost every single person in New York State would have to have been infected, and that's not possible.

NYS population is 19,450,000 (19.45m)NYS has 21,908 Corvid-19 DeathsIf we say fatality rate is 0.14% then you would need almost 100% of entire New York State infected.19,450,000 x 0.14 = 27,230 Deaths

I've seen reports that the tests spew out 5-6% false positives. Could it be even worse? Could it be picking up antibodies to other coronaviruses as well, i.e. a cold, the flue? Shouldn't they have a better handle on that before predictions are made?

NYS population is 19,450,000 (19.45m)NYS has 21,908 Corvid-19 DeathsIf we say fatality rate is 0.14% then you would need almost 100% of entire New York State infected.19,450,000 x 0.14 = 27,230 Deaths
 
Coronavirus outbreak in a South Korea call center. Desks were packed into an open space. There was an airconditioning system. Who knows when the filters were changed.

Haven't seen this in movie theaters, so many it's not just close contact, but the fact they were talking all day. People talk in airplanes too so not good news for airlines, trains, buses.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article
 
I just don't think anybody really knows what's going on.

This is the data from Italy.
"Background: The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been spread-ing globally for months, yet the infection fatality ratio of the disease is still uncertain. This is partly because of inconsistencies in testing and death reporting standards across countries. Our purpose is to provide accurate estimates which do not rely on testing and death count data directly but only use population level statistics. Methods: We collected demographic and death records data from the Italian Institute of Statistics. We focus on the area in Italy that experienced the initial outbreak of COVID-19 and estimated a Bayesian model fitting age-stratified mortality data from 2020 and previous years. We also assessed the sensitivity of our estimates to alternative assumptions on the proportion of population infected. Findings: We estimate an overall infection fatality rate of 1.29% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.89 - 2.01), as well as large differences by age, with a low infection fatality rate of 0.05% for under 60 year old (CrI 0-.19) and a substantially higher 4.25% (CrI 3.01-6.39) for people above 60 years of age. In our sensitivity analysis, we found that even under extreme assumptions, our method delivered useful information. For instance, even if only 10% of the population were infected, the infection fatality rate would not rise above 0.2% for people under 60. Interpretation: Our empirical estimates based on population level data show a sharp difference in fatality rates between young and old people and firmly rule out overall fatality ratios below 0.5% in populations with more than 30% over 60 years old."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070912v1

This is a paper from the University of Miami which states that...
"UM researchers used statistical methods to account for the limitations of the antibody test, which is known to generate some false positive results. The researchers say they are 95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, with 6% representing the best estimate.That would mean about 165,000 estimated infections in Miami-Dade, with the margin of error equating to 123,000 residents on the low end and 221,000 residents on the high end."

That would be an IFR of .14%.


https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html

With all due respect to them, how can that be true?

In order for that .14 fatality rate to be correct, almost every single person in New York State would have to have been infected, and that's not possible.

NYS population is 19,450,000 (19.45m)NYS has 21,908 Corvid-19 DeathsIf we say fatality rate is 0.14% then you would need almost 100% of entire New York State infected.19,450,000 x 0.14 = 27,230 Deaths

I've seen reports that the tests spew out 5-6% false positives. Could it be even worse? Could it be picking up antibodies to other coronaviruses as well, i.e. a cold, the flue? Shouldn't they have a better handle on that before predictions are made?

NYS population is 19,450,000 (19.45m)NYS has 21,908 Corvid-19 DeathsIf we say fatality rate is 0.14% then you would need almost 100% of entire New York State infected.19,450,000 x 0.14 = 27,230 Deaths

The antibody test from a Chinese company is pretty much worthless. Both the Stanford study and the USC study used the antibody test from the same Chinese company. The Stanford study also had respondents that were not randomly picked but volunteered on Facebook. I don't understand, design of experiments does not go out of the window because we are in a pandemic.
 
China's coronavirus death count could be four times higher than the "official" count. Wow, who would have thunk it? :) And that's with every person who showed any symptoms at all being taken from their homes and sent to huge quarantine camps.

"Infections would have been 232,000 in China as of Feb. 20 if the calculation of cases confirmed by “clinical diagnosis” had been applied throughout the outbreak, the Lancet reported. That compares to the 55,508 cases announced at the time by the country’s National Health Commission, according to the report."


What have we been saying about masks?
New cases daily went down by half when masks were required for all staff and all patients. Most of the rest were probably picked up outside the hospital.
"
https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/23/brigham-and-womens-masks-infections


How accurate are the antibody tests:

Surveys of residents in the Bay Area, Los Angeles and New York this week found that substantial percentages tested positive for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, the official name of the new coronavirus. In New York City, the figure was said to be as high as 21 percent. Elsewhere, it was closer to 3 percent.

"
Of the 14 tests, only three delivered consistently reliable results. Even the best had some flaws.
In the new research, researchers found that only one of the tests never delivered a so-called false positive — that is, it never mistakenly signaled antibodies in people who did not have them."

Two other tests did not deliver false-positive results 99 percent of the time.
But the converse was not true. Even these three tests detected antibodies in infected people only 90 percent of the time, at best.

Four of the tests produced false-positive rates ranging from 11 percent to 16 percent; many of the rest hovered around 5 percent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests.html

The authors of the studies which published some of these antibody rates, like the University of Miami one, had better check what test they used.
 
It is an earthquake still in progress...
It happens in seconds, but feels like centuries
We dont even yet forestall to come out... to count the "damages".


The Sun in full light,-glaze the empty streets... indiscreetely enter to bedrooms.
The Air mves the tree shadows up on the walls..,
Years now, I have moved all that paintings... less is better.


I heard someone saying:<<Soon we will be out>>,
<<...to where? >>: said another...and both fell in silence.
I bench up to my couch.


I'll wait to meet my family again...
 
If God dnt make jokes to us...
...and this man is president of United States of America.


Then: Yes maybe it is true, that the carpenter's boy is son of God...
 
... <<And yes, evrytime God I imagine my self slaping you, as hard i can....
You coming behind the curtains you hug me in tender
You kiss my neck...

The "lovers Lover", as said... here... tonight.

I hear Heraclitus saying that nature loves to hide. Plato saying "that is what I meant"...
and Aristotle. that: "love is two souls in one body".


and You keep smiling... -Yes, next time I will slap you...>>
 
:unsure: :unsure: :unsure: :unsure: :unsure:

Αναρωτιεμαι τι θελει να πει ο ποιητης,

I wonder what the poet wants to say to us,

I scratch my head,

ouf, I love maths, not literature :grin:
 

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