I just don't think anybody really knows what's going on.
This is the data from Italy.
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Background: The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been spread-ing globally for months, yet the infection fatality ratio of the disease is still uncertain. This is partly because of inconsistencies in testing and death reporting standards across countries. Our purpose is to provide accurate estimates which do not rely on testing and death count data directly but only use population level statistics. Methods: We collected demographic and death records data from the Italian Institute of Statistics. We focus on the area in Italy that experienced the initial outbreak of COVID-19 and estimated a Bayesian model fitting age-stratified mortality data from 2020 and previous years. We also assessed the sensitivity of our estimates to alternative assumptions on the proportion of population infected. Findings: We estimate an overall infection fatality rate of 1.29% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.89 - 2.01), as well as large differences by age, with a low infection fatality rate of 0.05% for under 60 year old (CrI 0-.19) and a substantially higher 4.25% (CrI 3.01-6.39) for people above 60 years of age. In our sensitivity analysis, we found that even under extreme assumptions, our method delivered useful information. For instance, even if only 10% of the population were infected, the infection fatality rate would not rise above 0.2% for people under 60. Interpretation: Our empirical estimates based on population level data show a sharp difference in fatality rates between young and old people and firmly rule out overall fatality ratios below 0.5% in populations with more than 30% over 60 years old."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070912v1
This is a paper from the University of Miami which states that...
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UM researchers used statistical methods to account for the limitations of the antibody test, which is known to generate some false positive results. The researchers say they are 95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, with 6% representing the best estimate.That would mean about 165,000 estimated infections in Miami-Dade, with the margin of error equating to 123,000 residents on the low end and 221,000 residents on the high end."
That would be an IFR of .14%.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html
With all due respect to them, how can that be true?
In order for that .14 fatality rate to be correct, almost every single person in New York State would have to have been infected, and that's not possible.
NYS population is 19,450,000 (19.45m)NYS has 21,908 Corvid-19 DeathsIf we say fatality rate is 0.14% then you would need almost 100% of entire New York State infected.19,450,000 x 0.14 = 27,230 Deaths
I've seen reports that the tests spew out 5-6% false positives. Could it be even worse? Could it be picking up antibodies to other coronaviruses as well, i.e. a cold, the flue? Shouldn't they have a better handle on that before predictions are made?
NYS population is 19,450,000 (19.45m)NYS has 21,908 Corvid-19 DeathsIf we say fatality rate is 0.14% then you would need almost 100% of entire New York State infected.19,450,000 x 0.14 = 27,230 Deaths