Health New Coronavirus in China

[bigsnake49]

Also Vietnam had limited their exposure to 16 cases until travelers from Europe reintroduced the virus. Now they have 35.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vietnam-idUSKBN20Y0LC

 

[bigsnake49]

There is still a lot of confusion as to the travel ban from Europe:

During Wednesday’s address, the president asserted that new travel restrictions would “apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo,” a claim administration officials almost immediately clarified would not apply to individuals or trade outright. Trump also mentioned that health insurance companies had “agreed to waive all copayments for coronavirus treatments,” a claim that was news to befuddled health insurers. And Trump’s travel ban was widely interpreted as applying wholesale to continental Europe, only to have White House communicators clear up that the intended policy exempted several countries beyond the UK.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-coronavirus-speech-sparks-total-213837516.html

 

[bigsnake49]

Here's another article on the total inadequacy of testing in the US:

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-tested-o...testing-slow-around-the-nation-153646616.html

 

[Duarte]

BBC News Brazil - March 5, 2020.


The threat of coronavirus in the USA, where millions have no medical license or public health.

In recent days, in the face of the advancement of the new coronavirus in the United States, the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention - a public health research agency linked to the Department of Health) has released a series of recommendations to Americans to protect themselves and prevent the virus spreads, including staying at home if you are sick and search a doctor.


But for millions of Americans, it will be impossible to adopt these measures. Since there is no federal law in the country that requires employers to offer sick leave, many employees have to choose between working sick or being without a salary - or even losing their jobs. In addition, without a public health system, many are not covered and avoid going to the doctor for fear of high costs.


At a time when the country already reports 11 deaths and more than 100 cases of covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, and when health officials consider it likely that millions of Americans will be infected, experts fear that these factors will affect the response to the crisis and pose a public health risk.


"Without sick leave, people will work (sick) and spread the disease," economist Nicolas Ziebarth, a professor at Cornell University in New York, tells BBC News Brazil.


Ziebarth studies the interaction between social security systems, labor markets and public health and is a co-author of studies that analyze the effect of city and state laws requiring employers to offer paid sick leave.

According to their most recent study, published this year, rates of influenza and similar illnesses dropped by an average of 11% in those locations in the first year after the laws came into force. Ziebarth believes that the correlation between access to sick leave and infection rates also holds for coronavirus.


No benefits


Among the rich countries, the United States stands out for being one of the only countries that do not offer their workers benefits such as sick leave, paid vacation or maternity leave. As these benefits are not provided for in federal law, the employer is responsible for the decision.


A study by the research institute Center for Economic and Policy Research compared the policies of 22 countries with high rates of economic and human development, showing that the United States is the only one not to offer sick leave. Nor do the country's laws protect workers from being fired if they are absent because of illness.


In recent years, some cities and states have passed laws that require certain employers to offer paid sick leave, but the United States Ministry of Labor says that a quarter of private sector workers do not have the benefit. Some are entitled to unpaid leave to treat medical conditions, but this benefit is also restricted.


The percentage of workers without a medical license varies according to their profession and salary, and is much higher among employees of the commerce and the food sector and in the informal economy - exactly those who tend to have more contact with the public. About 40% of workers in the service sector and almost 60% of those who work part-time do not have sick leave.

Without the benefit and in the face of the financial pressure of spending days without a salary, these Americans tend to work even if they are sick or someone in the family is infected, putting colleagues and the public at risk.


"Many times they can't even have a day off without pay," says Ziebarth. "If they have symptoms and want to take precautions and not go to work, even without pay, they risk being fired if their employer is not understanding."


According to data from the 2014 CDC, "one in five workers in the food service sector reported having worked at least once in the previous year while they were sick with vomiting or diarrhea". The main reason cited was fear of losing a job.


Low-income workers


Most Americans without sick leave have low wages, which exacerbates the impact of the lack of benefit. According to a study by the think tank Economic Policy Institute, for low-income workers, three days without receiving pay is equivalent to the monthly budget for food purchases.


"They have to choose between working sick (or sending their children to school sick) or run out of the payment they need so badly," says the study.


In addition to not having access to paid sick leave, many American employees are also unable to work remotely from home - another government recommendation in the event of a coronavirus epidemic.


Data from the Department of Labor indicate that only 29% of American workers have this possibility, a percentage that also varies according to the profession, salary and level of education.


But even among those who have access to paid sick leave, many are reluctant to stay at home, even if they are sick, the result of a culture that mistrusts those who do not work hard. In addition, among those who have the benefit, the average is seven days a year, which makes many seek to "save" those days to use in case of serious illness.


Health coverage


Another obstacle in fighting coronavirus is the fact that more than 27 million people in the United States do not have health insurance, according to data from the American Census, and the country does not have a free universal health care system.


Even though tests to diagnose the presence of the new coronavirus are available, experts fear that many people will avoid seeking medical help to find out if they are infected, for fear of the associated costs.


Tests are free in public laboratories, but not in all private laboratories. In addition to the test itself, there are the costs of visiting the doctor or the emergency room. In case of need for hospitalization, the bill can reach thousands of dollars per day.


According to a study by the non-profit organization Kaiser Family Foundation, one in five Americans without health insurance avoids seeking medical care because of costs. In a Gallup survey released late last year, 25% of Americans revealed that the high costs had led them or someone in the family to avoid seeking treatment for a serious illness in the previous year.


Most Americans without health insurance are low-income. "People who do not have health insurance very often are also not entitled to sick leave," says Ziebarth.


Even when they have a medical license, the lack of health coverage makes it difficult to obtain a medical certificate to prove the disease and obtain a license.

Unexpected charges


Among those with health insurance, coverage is often limited and requires a high percentage of co-payments. In addition, it is common to receive charges that were not foreseen when negotiating the details of the treatment.


Recently, some Americans who were forced to quarantine because of the coronavirus reported being charged thousands of dollars, although isolation was mandatory by government order.


In one case, reported by The New York Times, an American reported that he and his daughter had been evacuated from Wuhan, the coronavirus epicenter in China, by the American government and quarantined, which included a few days in isolation in a hospital.


Although hospitalization was ordered by the government - and they were not diagnosed with the virus - he received a bill of almost $ 4,000 (more than $ 18,000) for ambulance services, doctors and a radiologist.


According to experts, all these obstacles should threaten the control of the epidemic, which depends on measures such as expanding access to tests and treatments and making those with symptoms or someone affected in the family stay at home, avoiding contaminating others.


The new coronavirus is believed to spread through proximity to sick people. There is also the possibility that it will spread through contact with contaminated surfaces and objects.


A sick application driver who is forced to work can contaminate his passengers. A sick restaurant employee can help spread the virus while preparing food, touching a customer's credit card or on surfaces used by other employees. In offices and other workplaces, close contact with colleagues can result in contagion.


Symptoms of the disease can take up to two weeks to manifest. "Some people have very mild symptoms, or have no symptoms at all, but they have the virus," notes Ziebarth.


"They may not even know they have the virus. And in that case, especially without a medical license and health insurance, they will spread the disease."

 

[Maciamo]

Are we to believe the oh, so efficient, countries of Germany and Belgium and the Netherlands, for example, were too incompetent to do this?

Where did you get the idea that Belgium has an efficient government? Officially we still don't have a government since the last election in June because parties can't agree to form a coalition. It's just a temporary government (which may end up ruling longer than the official one). Many politicians are corrupt and incompetent. As bicicleur said, the authorities didn't check a lot of people flying back from Italy. I was in Italy 3 weeks ago and I can confirm that when I arrived in Italy I had my temperature checked, but nobody did anything of the sort or check for coronavirus on the way back to Belgium. And no way to get tested even if I request to.

Today the Belgian government announced that they are closing all schools for 3 weeks until the Spring holidays. But working parents (i.e. most people) can still leave their child at the school's day care during the day. So what's the point? All crèches (nursery schools) remain open (you know because little ones never catch any viruses ). They decided to close all cafés and restaurants, but allow take-away and deliveries (because it's not like there is any chance that people preparing the food could be sick and pass it through the food itself :useless: ). They close all cultural and sports activities (sport centres, theatres, etc.) but all regular shops remain open and public transport run as usual.

It's not just the government that is grossly incompetent and moronic. Most ordinary people are no better. It seems that there has been a major rush to supermarkets this morning, with long queues forming before the opening time. Most basic necessities were sold out within 30 minutes, including water, milk, butter, bread, rice, pasta, flour, sugar, jam, toilet paper, kitchen paper... What are these people thinking? Preparing for WWIII? People start panicking for no reason and are actually making things worse. The authorities is trying to prevent big gatherings in close proximity (you know, except in crèches, day care centres, buses, metros...) and what is the reaction of the population? Getting cramped into overcrowded supermarkets and queuing for half an hour with people breathing in your neck! And of course I notice in the streets that people continue to cheek kiss acquaintances as if there was no pandemic. But that's the very people who came back from the supermarket with shopping bags full of provisions. What kind of boneheads are they? And the worst of all is that many of them are elderly people who shouldn't get out of their homes at all during the corona pandemic! They do everything the wrong way round. It makes me wanna puke to think that these are my fellow country people. No concern at all about physical proximity, cheek kisses and hand shakes. But stocking like crazy even though the government just announced that all shops and supermarkets are staying open! I can understand that irrational panic can seize a herd of sheep or a flock of pigeons. But these are supposed to be human beings! Pathetic.

 

[bicicleur 2]

Let's apply some reason, shall we?
When refugees of the the "wrong" color were taking trains into France from Italy, the French police were instructed to stop the trains at the border. Hungary did the same. Germany, and Belgium, could have done the same, but then they would have exposed themselves to censure not only from abroad but from their own citizens, the ones still capable of rational thought, of course.
United States citizens who are in Europe are allowed to come home to get away from the virus even though all other human travel from Europe is banned. Christ, we sent planes to get our citizens out of Wuhan. Anything else would be monstrous and an abdication of our responsibility to them. Of course, it's on us to check them and quarantine them on arrival. That shouldn't even need to be pointed out.
Are we to believe the oh, so efficient, countries of Germany and Belgium and the Netherlands, for example, were too incompetent to do this? England is doing it for their British citizens, what about the rest? Or, were people put on self-quarantine and some broke it?
My, my what has happened to the communal spirit in these countries? Their countrymen don't want them to come home, and if they do come home are so lacking in foresight that they didn't put them in quarantine? That's someone else's fault? Or, have they suddenly lost their vaunted ability to follow orders, no matter what they're like?
I guess some people are also not keeping up with the latest scientific reports: in Germany, for example, only some of the cases, mostly in Baden-Wurttemberg are of the same strain as showed up in Lombardia originally, which, of course, were first seen in Munich.
If people are going to opine, just not to embarass themselves, surely they should do their research.
Honestly, if I hear again how much more rational men are than women I may "barf" as we say. Or maybe racism and/or abject fear removes the ability to think rationally in some people.
On to rational commentary, based on papers, not prejudice.

you should take into account geography

all incoming planes from China were checked and passengers put in quarantaine, as was done in the US
but when the virus came via Italy, it was no more possible because the traffic crossing the border was a multitude of intercontinental traffic by plane
not only plaines crossed that border, also cars, busses and trains
furthermore all over the world supplies of corona virus testers have run out

and I don't know about Germany, but in Belgium almost all confirmed cases of Corona were imported from Italy
the difference is that it was possible to stop and controll all entering Blgium from China, but not from Italy

and what about the Brittish? has it less spread in Brittain than in Europe? it does not look like it
maybe it is a good measure to stop Europeans entering the US, but making an exception for Brittain and Ireland is lacking all logic
it will only delay the spread in the US, but it will spread there too

as for immigrants during the refugee crisis in 2015, Germany took more of them than Italy
but according to you it is always Italy against the rest of Europe
stop playing the victim

oh yes, and Maciamo is right, Belgium does have an efficient government, and it is not efficient

 

[Maciamo]

There is still a lot of confusion as to the travel ban from Europe:

During Wednesday’s address, the president asserted that new travel restrictions would “apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo,” a claim administration officials almost immediately clarified would not apply to individuals or trade outright. Trump also mentioned that health insurance companies had “agreed to waive all copayments for coronavirus treatments,” a claim that was news to befuddled health insurers. And Trump’s travel ban was widely interpreted as applying wholesale to continental Europe, only to have White House communicators clear up that the intended policy exempted several countries beyond the UK.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-coronavirus-speech-sparks-total-213837516.html

It's a purely political ban. It makes no sense to ban only the Schengen area, but not the UK, Ireland and other countries outside that zone. But the worse is that US citizens can actually travel freely between the USA and Europe, in both directions. The ban applies only to EU citizens from the Schengen zone travelling to the US! In other words, American tourists are free to come to Europe, pick the virus, then return to meet their families and friends home. But EU tourists who have little interactions with locals in the US are banned. Go figure.

 

[Northener]

Where did you get the idea that Belgium has an efficient government? Officially we still don't have a government since the last election in June because parties can't agree to form a coalition. It's just a temporary government (which may end up ruling longer than the official one). Many politicians are corrupt and incompetent. As bicicleur said, the authorities didn't check a lot of people flying back from Italy. I was in Italy 3 weeks ago and I can confirm that when I arrived in Italy I had my temperature checked, but nobody did anything of the sort or check for coronavirus on the way back to Belgium. And no way to get tested even if I request to.

Today the Belgian government announced that they are closing all schools for 3 weeks until the Spring holidays. But working parents (i.e. most people) can still leave their child at the school's day care during the day. So what's the point? All crèches (nursery schools) remain open (you know because little ones never catch any viruses ). They decided to close all cafés and restaurants, but allow take-away and deliveries (because it's not like there is any chance that people preparing the food could be sick and pass it through the food itself :useless: ). They close all cultural and sports activities (sport centres, theatres, etc.) but all regular shops remain open and public transport run as usual.

It's not just the government that is grossly incompetent and moronic. Most ordinary people are no better. It seems that there has been a major rush to supermarkets this morning, with long queues forming before the opening time. Most basic necessities were sold out within 30 minutes, including water, milk, butter, bread, rice, pasta, flour, sugar, jam, toilet paper, kitchen paper... What are these people thinking? Preparing for WWIII? People start panicking for no reason and are actually making things worse. The authorities is trying to prevent big gatherings in close proximity (you know, except in crèches, day care centres, buses, metros...) and what is the reaction of the population? Getting cramped into overcrowded supermarkets and queuing for half an hour with people breathing in your neck! And of course I notice in the streets that people continue to cheek kiss acquaintances as if there was no pandemic. But that's the very people who came back from the supermarket with shopping bags full of provisions. What kind of boneheads are they? And the worst of all is that many of them are elderly people who shouldn't get out of their homes at all during the corona pandemic! They do everything the wrong way round. It makes me wanna puke to think that these are my fellow country people. No concern at all about physical proximity, cheek kisses and hand shakes. But stocking like crazy even though the government just announced that all shops and supermarkets are staying open! I can understand that irrational panic can seize a herd of sheep or a flock of pigeons. But these are supposed to be human beings! Pathetic.

It's indeed pathetic, but I most admit I just bought some extra food too.....something more than usual. Why? That's irrational I have still a little kid and this is something primal (so bought extra milk and kid food etc).

I know I know.....(* surge for shame emoticon *).....there goes the rational person

 

[bicicleur 2]

Where did you get the idea that Belgium has an efficient government? Officially we still don't have a government since the last election in June because parties can't agree to form a coalition. It's just a temporary government (which may end up ruling longer than the official one). Many politicians are corrupt and incompetent. As bicicleur said, the authorities didn't check a lot of people flying back from Italy. I was in Italy 3 weeks ago and I can confirm that when I arrived in Italy I had my temperature checked, but nobody did anything of the sort or check for coronavirus on the way back to Belgium. And no way to get tested even if I request to.

Today the Belgian government announced that they are closing all schools for 3 weeks until the Spring holidays. But working parents (i.e. most people) can still leave their child at the school's day care during the day. So what's the point? All crèches (nursery schools) remain open (you know because little ones never catch any viruses ). They decided to close all cafés and restaurants, but allow take-away and deliveries (because it's not like there is any chance that people preparing the food could be sick and pass it through the food itself :useless: ). They close all cultural and sports activities (sport centres, theatres, etc.) but all regular shops remain open and public transport run as usual.

It's not just the government that is grossly incompetent and moronic. Most ordinary people are no better. It seems that there has been a major rush to supermarkets this morning, with long queues forming before the opening time. Most basic necessities were sold out within 30 minutes, including water, milk, butter, bread, rice, pasta, flour, sugar, jam, toilet paper, kitchen paper... What are these people thinking? Preparing for WWIII? People start panicking for no reason and are actually making things worse. The authorities is trying to prevent big gatherings in close proximity (you know, except in crèches, day care centres, buses, metros...) and what is the reaction of the population? Getting cramped into overcrowded supermarkets and queuing for half an hour with people breathing in your neck! And of course I notice in the streets that people continue to cheek kiss acquaintances as if there was no pandemic. But that's the very people who came back from the supermarket with shopping bags full of provisions. What kind of boneheads are they? And the worst of all is that many of them are elderly people who shouldn't get out of their homes at all during the corona pandemic! They do everything the wrong way round. It makes me wanna puke to think that these are my fellow country people. No concern at all about physical proximity, cheek kisses and hand shakes. But stocking like crazy even though the government just announced that all shops and supermarkets are staying open! I can understand that irrational panic can seize a herd of sheep or a flock of pigeons. But these are supposed to be human beings! Pathetic.

yes, I don't understand, why only a week ago they didn't check better those coming back from Italy, and now they find it necessary to take such measurements
I'm not an expert and I hope they are the appropriate measurements
I'm especially sceptical about closing the schools
2 experts allready said it is not a good measurement, but politically inspired : schools are also closed in France now, and many Walloons watch french television, and they would start wondering why France closed schools and Belgium not
anyway, Belgium was allready almost bankrupt, and with this on top, it will become completely bankrupt
it is high time to completely reorganise Belgium

 

[bicicleur 2]

Where did you get the idea that Belgium has an efficient government? Officially we still don't have a government since the last election in June because parties can't agree to form a coalition. It's just a temporary government (which may end up ruling longer than the official one). Many politicians are corrupt and incompetent. As bicicleur said, the authorities didn't check a lot of people flying back from Italy. I was in Italy 3 weeks ago and I can confirm that when I arrived in Italy I had my temperature checked, but nobody did anything of the sort or check for coronavirus on the way back to Belgium. And no way to get tested even if I request to.

Today the Belgian government announced that they are closing all schools for 3 weeks until the Spring holidays. But working parents (i.e. most people) can still leave their child at the school's day care during the day. So what's the point? All crèches (nursery schools) remain open (you know because little ones never catch any viruses ). They decided to close all cafés and restaurants, but allow take-away and deliveries (because it's not like there is any chance that people preparing the food could be sick and pass it through the food itself :useless: ). They close all cultural and sports activities (sport centres, theatres, etc.) but all regular shops remain open and public transport run as usual.

It's not just the government that is grossly incompetent and moronic. Most ordinary people are no better. It seems that there has been a major rush to supermarkets this morning, with long queues forming before the opening time. Most basic necessities were sold out within 30 minutes, including water, milk, butter, bread, rice, pasta, flour, sugar, jam, toilet paper, kitchen paper... What are these people thinking? Preparing for WWIII? People start panicking for no reason and are actually making things worse. The authorities is trying to prevent big gatherings in close proximity (you know, except in crèches, day care centres, buses, metros...) and what is the reaction of the population? Getting cramped into overcrowded supermarkets and queuing for half an hour with people breathing in your neck! And of course I notice in the streets that people continue to cheek kiss acquaintances as if there was no pandemic. But that's the very people who came back from the supermarket with shopping bags full of provisions. What kind of boneheads are they? And the worst of all is that many of them are elderly people who shouldn't get out of their homes at all during the corona pandemic! They do everything the wrong way round. It makes me wanna puke to think that these are my fellow country people. No concern at all about physical proximity, cheek kisses and hand shakes. But stocking like crazy even though the government just announced that all shops and supermarkets are staying open! I can understand that irrational panic can seize a herd of sheep or a flock of pigeons. But these are supposed to be human beings! Pathetic.

they also closed down my tennis club, not only the bar, but the tennis courts
the story is that tennis balls can get infected by taking them in your hands, and it stays there for an hour till it gets killed
well, they say they'll play cards instead now
I wonder what's the difference between a tennis ball and a deck of cards

they can't stop Corona, only delay it
and they should refrain from inefficient measurements

 

[Carlos]

I am devastated since I want to buy a pata negra ham for obvious reasons and there is someone who does not want to, it is a power struggle, my father is 86 years old and he goes out every day and it is impossible to keep him and if he gets angry he throws my stuffed animals out on the balcony.


If they need volunteers I will at least die with my boots on.

 

[Angela]

I have a feeling that this comment could be directed at my post #196 above, where I said:



To be clear, I did not mean that I don't care about people above 60, like my parents and my grandmother, because I do and have been very concerned for them (and others).

When I am in analytical mode, I turn off the emotional part of my brain to try to see facts and statistics in the most detached way possible, and I may not always phrase my ideas in the most tactful way.

What I meant to say is that the mortality rate of coronavirus is very surely exaggerated at present based on the cases from countries like China, Iran and Italy, which saw the highest numbers of reported cases so far.

The WHO stated that "globally, about 3.4% of reported Covid-19 cases have died". But scientists now think that the real mortality rate is closer to 0.9%. It's still more than the flu, but it's already 4 times lower than the authorities thought last week.

But every country has different rules about testing. I called my doctor because I have had mild flu-like symptoms for 5 days and I was shocked to learn that the current policy in Belgium is that only people with severe symptoms like pneumonia or respiratory insufficiency could be tested for coronavirus (and only a few hospitals do the test). My doctor told me not to bother because even serious cases don't necessarily get tested by hospitals! It goes without saying that with such strict criteria over 90% of carriers won't know it as they can't get tested, which in turn completely skews the statistics and make it look like the mortality rate is far higher than it really is.

At present South Korea is the country that conducted the most extensive testing per capita : 5x more people per capita have been tested than in Italy, 10x more than in the UK or the Netherlands, and 750x more than in the USA.

What's more, the epidemic in South Korea started on 20th January (much earlier than Europe) and has been relatively well contained over the past week. So what is the mortality rate in South Korea? As of today, over 180,000 South Koreans have been tested, of which 7979 were positive for Covid-19 and 67 died. That's a mortality rate of 0.8%, close to the new official estimates of 0.9%. That's still 8 or 9x more than the seasonal flu, but not nearly as bad as the 3.4% originally announced.

The Chinese province of Guangdong has the second best testing per capita. They identified 1356 cases, among which 8 died. That's a case fatality rate of 0.59% - even lower than South Korea.

Italy now has 15,113 cases and 1016 deaths. That's a massive 6.6% mortality rate. I think that the reason for that is that too many people with mild symptoms haven't been tested. If we take the 0.8% of South Korea as being closer to the actual mortality rate, then we could extrapolate that approximately 125,000 Italians have been contaminated to date (not 15,000 as official data shows).

So going back to my assertion that "Covid-19 may not have a higher mortality than seasonal influenza, at least in people under 60". The chart below shows the mortality rate by age group based only on the confirmed cases in China. But China tested only a fraction of its huge population, which is what caused the WHO to originally report a mortality rate of 3.4%. So all percentages in the chart should be divided by 4 to get a more reasonable estimate.

In other words, the real mortality rate would be:

- 0% under 10 years old
- 0.05% from 10 to 39 years old
- 0.1% from 40 to 49 years old
- 0.3% from 50 to 59 years old
- 0.9% from 60 to 69 years old
- 2% from 70 to 79 years old
- 3.7% from 80 years old

The seasonal flu's case fatality rate is 0.1%, so my initial doubt was correct to say that Coronavirus was less deadly than the flu for people under 50 at least (not 60 as I wrote). It still represent considerable danger for the elderly population (over 70) and it should in no way be underestimated.

I sincerely hope you remain well, Maciamo. All good wishes are sent your way.

I also sincerely hope the fatality rate is under 1%.

These are the figures I've seen, which accompanied your graphic above.

Until we have more testing, we just won't know.

As for South Korea, I'd be interested in knowing what percentage of those tested belonged to that religious sect which first brought Covid-19 into S. Korea.

That particular set of circumstances may be one reason for the "relative" ease of the containment there. As I mentioned above, the original presenters were two or three people from an isolated religious cult some of whose members had been in Wuhan, and who socialize mainly within their own group.

Identifying, testing and quarantining these people must have gone a long way.

Some more back of the envelope extrapolating.

"Epidemiological modeling
Posted by arguably wrong March 10, 2020
A basic SIR model for the epidemic.
Total population 327 million, with a single initiating infection. 12 day course of disease, initial R0 of 3.5 (as per the stats from China that Steve linked.) Assume 5% of cases are critical, 2% of those critical cases die with ICU care, 5% with general hospital care, and 50% with no care. 90,000 available ICU beds and 900,000 available hospital beds.
Run this model through to completion and it sweeps through the population in about a year, infecting most everyone (less about 9 million who escape), killing 5.4 million.
Now, suppose we impose infection controls on day 80, right about when there’s 1000 deaths from this thing. And then we vary how strong those controls are: from 0.35 (what the Chinese managed) up to nothing at all.
Here we see how the # of deaths varies with the strength of our controls. If we impose Chinese-style controls, we get away with only 5K deaths, or 1000-fold fewer than without the controls. But the inflection point isn’t just at 1.0. In particular if we can get the R0 below about 1.5 that gets us down under 500K, or a 10-fold reduction. At 1.0 we get down to about 50K. …"

As I said, there's a lag time, so figures change overnight:

"[RTRS] - NUMBER OF CONFIRMED CORONAVIRUS CASES IN GERMANY JUMPS TO 2,369 FROM 1,567 - ROBERT KOCH INSTITUTE FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASES.

 

[bigsnake49]

Yeah but we have no idea how many are infected in the US because well we don't have enough testing kits or as some have suggested aggressive testing might reveal how incompetent this administration is and you know this is an election year and our Dear Leader might not get re-elected. Now I don't believe that any leader would put the health and well being of the citizens above his own political fortunes. Or would they...

 

[Angela]

Here is how you're supposed to deal with something like the coronavirus:

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/...oronavirus-china-social-distancing-quarantine

They were in a state of alert in December and were meeting planes and testing people coming from Wuhan. They had a fully staffed control center since the SARS epidemic.

As a result of the SARS epidemic, they had a current plan in place, and they implemented it immediately. Also, we shouldn't underestimate the benefit of being an island in situations like this. There are two means of ingress and egress: airports which can be easily monitored, and ports.

Compare that to Europe's situation, with trains and cars going everywhere. It's impossible to track. We have one lawyer here in Westchester who unknowingly infected 50 people. Who knows how many people each one of those people infected.

By the time most places knew it was there it was all over the place, in most cases, yes, not presenting symptoms, which is why it could spread undetected.

To some extent the U.S. was in the same situation. If the case in Washington State was indeed Patient Zero on the west coast, she was already in Washington State (from Wuhan) and ill from COVID 19, as they discovered later, by January 14th. I didn't see her plane arrival date but it was definitely before that. The isolation of the virus wasn't done in Wuhan until January 8th.

That's how it happened.

There's no going back, and hindsight is indeed 20/20.

There's no need, however, imo, to worsen the situation by importing more foreigners who could be infected.

 

[Yetos]

About Trump desicion for stoping air transfer of humans,

He has the right to do it,
the economical effect is the reason that in Europe we have 'pandemia'
if china did not count the economical and political effect, the pandemia would have benn slowly expand,
when realize, it was a bit out of control

But
I notice Washington state
the confirmed cases are 457 to a state population of 7535000
meaning 0.061 per 1000 people,

by the data I calculate 2 days before, #224
THAT IS MUCH BIGGER THAN MANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

so although I recogn his right,
I do not understand why now?

 

[torzio]

It's a purely political ban. It makes no sense to ban only the Schengen area, but not the UK, Ireland and other countries outside that zone. But the worse is that US citizens can actually travel freely between the USA and Europe, in both directions. The ban applies only to EU citizens from the Schengen zone travelling to the US! In other words, American tourists are free to come to Europe, pick the virus, then return to meet their families and friends home. But EU tourists who have little interactions with locals in the US are banned. Go figure.

you are missing the point of a traveler getting sick away from home and the visiting country bearing the burden of their care...............that's what is stated in australia ............we have issues here with mr Hanks and partner being infected by a chinese visitor in Australia in the same hotel

 

[Maciamo]

Yeah but we have no idea how many are infected in the US because well we don't have enough testing kits or as some have suggested aggressive testing might reveal how incompetent this administration is and you know this is an election year and our Dear Leader might not get re-elected. Now I don't believe that any leader would put the health and well being of the citizens above his own political fortunes. Or would they...

Based on the number of deaths in the US so far (41), using the same 0.8% mortality rate as explained above, there are at least 4500 people infected in the US. But the death rate is still low because people don't drop dead just after contracting the disease. There is a 2 weeks incubation period + another 1 or 2 weeks before patients die or recover. If the number of cases is multiplied by 10 every 8 days on average (also explained above), that would mean that with a 3.5 weeks (lets say 24 days, as its 3 x 8) delay on deaths, the real number of people infected would be closer to 4,500,000 in the US now. Among those, people infected in the last 2 weeks will still be incubating and presenting now symptoms whatsoever. Since the increase is exponential, the last 2 weeks' worth would represent 4,455,000 people (99%). Among the 1% left (45,000 people) about 90% will be either asymptomatic or present only mild symptoms that they won't report to their doctor. That leaves 4500 people with clear symptoms - probably those that got tested positive. In fact, even this calculation seems widely optimistic since only a fraction of people presenting clear symptoms actually got tested due to the shortage of tests. Anyway, the virus is spreading so fast that even if it is 4.5 million right now, it will be 5.5 million tomorrow and 45 million in 8 days. If you see an error in my reasoning, let me know, but that's what the current data seems to say.

Using the same reasoning, most people in Western Europe are already infected but will only (maybe) start showing symptoms in 2 weeks' time. That's why it doesn't make any sense to start closing schools, sports centres and the like now. It's far too late. Cases will keep increasing at the same speed as before just as they did in Italy in the days after shutting down the country (despite the lockdown, the number of cases keep increasing by 20-25% per day like before and like in other countries). All the governments are doing is trying to save face by pretending to be trying to do something. There was never anything they could do against such a virulent virus.

 

[bigsnake49]

Trump is considering travel restrictions to Washington State and California.

 

[bigsnake49]

Based on the number of deaths in the US so far (41), using the same 0.8% mortality rate as explained above, there are at least 4500 people infected in the US. But the death rate is still low because people don't drop dead just after contracting the disease. There is a 2 weeks incubation period + another 1 or 2 weeks before patients die or recover. If the number of cases is multiplied by 10 every 8 days on average (also explained above), that would mean that with a 3.5 weeks (lets say 24 days, as its 3 x 8) delay on deaths, the real number of people infected would be closer to 450,000 in the US now. Among those, about 90% will be either asymptomatic or present only mild symptoms that they won't report to their doctor. That leaves 45,000 people with symptoms, but only a fraction actually got tested due to the shortage of tests.

The mortality rate is calculated with regards to the known cases not the unknown cases. There are only 1696 known cases in the US.

 

[Angela]

It's too late to stop it in my opinion. What is important now is to "FLATTEN THE CURVE", so that the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. It wouldn't only be the patients who need ICU, whether they have COVID-19 or not, who would suffer. It's also anyone who needs any kind of medical care, and of course, the medical staff, who only have to make one tiny mistake with disinfection to come down with it.

Another way of looking at the necessity of flattening the curve: the responses of St. Louis versus Philadelphia to the Spanish Flu of 1918. One cancelled parades and public gatherings and one didn't. Now, the final death toll might have turned out to be the same at the end; that I don't know. However, the "social distancing" in one city meant health care providers weren't overwhelmed all at once.

Sorry, I neglected to post this graphic in my post above.

Is it correct? Who knows. All I know is that Wuhan hospitals were overwhelmed, and Lombardy's hospitals were overwhelmed, and they had to "triage" the medical care, which is an antiseptic term for letting some patients just die.