Health New Coronavirus in China

[johen]

Iceland finds that half its citizens with coronavirus have shown no symptoms

Big data can come from small places.Iceland’s isolated location and sparse population mean that some vital information about the novel coronavirus is coming out of the island nation — especially considering that it’s already tested 10% of its population, which is more than any other country, according to USA Today.
And the scariest finding: At any given time, about half of its citizens who have the coronavirus — and don’t know it — are not showing any symptoms. That’s double the CDC’s recent estimate that as many as one in four people with COVID-19 may be asymptomatic.

Granted, the United States hasn’t tested such a high percentage of its population, so it’s not working with as much data. Online statistics site Worldometer crunched the number of coronavirus tests reported by each state — around 2.3 million, by its account, in total — which it equated to about 7,100 tests per 1 million people. By that same scale, it reported Iceland has performed 96,000 tests per million people. (The actual population of Iceland, long a favorite of biotech research because of its relative homogeneity and its centuries’ worth of genealogical records, is 364,134 — roughly the same as that of Tulsa, Okla.)

 

[johen]

visualizing the history of pandemics

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/7-best-covid-19-resources/

The Carnegie study measured the carbon impact of a number of historical events that involved a large number of deaths.
Time periods also looked at included the Black Death in Europe, the fall of China's Ming Dynasty and the conquest of the Americas.
All of these events share a widespread return of forests after a period of massive depopulation

 

[Yetos]

	COUNTRY	Population /1000	Confirmed infected	deaths upon confirmed	recover	Active %	Confirmed infected /1000 people	Current Mortality of conf.	Mortality 3 APR	current Recover of conf.	Recover 3 APR	deaths per 10 000 population
1	NY city USA	8175	94409	5820	0	93,84	11,5485	0,0616	-	0,0000	-	7,1193
2	San Marino	33	344	34	50	75,58	10,4242	0,0988	0,1224	0,1453	0,0857	10,3030
3	Andora	76	601	26	71	83,86	7,9079	0,0433	0,0280	0,1181	0,0234	3,4211
4	Luxenbourg	614	3223	54	500	82,81	5,2492	0,0168	0,0121	0,1551	0,0322	0,8795
5	Iceland	364	1675	6	741	55,40	4,6016	0,0036	0,0030	0,4424	0,2153	0,1648
6	Feroe isls	52	184	0	145	21,20	3,5385	0,0000	0,0000	0,7880	0,5084	0,0000
7	Spain	46733	157053	15970	55668	54,39	3,3606	0,1017	0,0923	0,3545	0,2386	3,4173
8	Swiss	8570	24551	1001	10600	52,75	2,8648	0,0408	0,0285	0,4318	0,2132	1,1680
9	Italy	60318	147557	18849	30455	66,59	2,4463	0,1277	0,1207	0,2064	0,1586	3,1249
10	Belgium	11516	26667	3019	5568	67,80	2,3156	0,1132	0,0659	0,2088	0,1626	2,6216
11	Liechtenstein	39	79	1	55	29,11	2,0256	0,0127	0,0000	0,6962	0,0000	0,2564
12	France	67022	124869	13197	24932	69,46	1,8631	0,1057	0,0911	0,1997	0,2103	1,9691
13	USA	328240	501560	18777	29132	90,45	1,5280	0,0374	0,0247	0,0581	0,0376	0,5721
14	EU	449507	684261	59286	181034	64,88	1,5222	0,0866	0,0756	0,4027	0,1905	1,3189
15	Austria	8903	13551	319	6064	52,90	1,5221	0,0235	0,0141	0,4475	0,1562	0,3583
16	Portugal	10277	15472	435	233	95,68	1,5055	0,0281	0,0231	0,0151	0,0075	0,4233
17	Deutch	83149	119624	2607	52407	54,01	1,4387	0,0218	0,0131	0,4381	0,2699	0,3135
18	Netherlands	17425	23097	2511	250	88,05	1,3255	0,1087	0,0911	0,0108	0,0170	1,4410
19	Norway	5368	6298	113	32	97,70	1,1732	0,0179	0,0096	0,0051	0,0061	0,2105
20	China Hubei	58500	67803	3213	64142	0,66	1,1590	0,0474	-	0,9460	-	0,5492
21	UK	67547	73758	8958	135	87,67	1,0920	0,1215	0,0866	0,0018	0,0040	1,3262
22	Ireland	6573	7054	287	25	95,58	1,0732	0,0407	0,0255	0,0035	0,0013	0,4366
23	Denmark	5823	5819	247	1773	65,29	0,9993	0,0424	0,0363	0,3047	0,3216	0,4242
24	Esthonia	1328	1258	24	93	90,70	0,9473	0,0191	0,0128	0,0739	0,0524	0,1807
25	sweden	10303	9685	870	381	87,08	0,9400	0,0898	0,0553	0,0393	0,0185	0,8444
26	LA Cal USA	9819	7984	255	0	96,81	0,8131	0,0319	-	0,0000	-	0,2597
27	Malta	494	350	2	16	94,86	0,7085	0,0057	0,0000	0,0457	0,0102	0,0405
28	Turkey	82004	47029	1006	2423	92,71	0,5735	0,0214	0,0196	0,0515	0,0229	0,1227
29	Slovenia	2100	1160	45	137	84,31	0,5524	0,0388	0,0190	0,1181	0,0780	0,2143
30	Moldova	2682	1438	29	56	94,09	0,5362	0,0202	0,0119	0,0389	0,0455	0,1081
31	Czech	10650	5674	119	346	91,80	0,5328	0,0210	0,0119	0,0610	0,0184	0,1117
32	Finland	5521	2769	48	300	87,43	0,5015	0,0173	0,0118	0,1083	0,1858	0,0869
33	Cyprus	1189	595	10	98	81,85	0,5004	0,0168	0,0281	0,1647	0,0787	0,0841
34	Serbia	6964	3105	71	0	97,71	0,4459	0,0229	0,0265	0,0000	0,0000	0,1020
35	Montenegro	631	255	2	4	97,65	0,4041	0,0078	0,0125	0,0157	0,0000	0,0317
36	Croatia	4076	1495	21	231	83,14	0,3668	0,0140	0,0069	0,1545	0,0178	0,0515
37	Lithuania	2794	999	22	54	92,39	0,3576	0,0220	0,0129	0,0541	0,0101	0,0787
38	Severna Mac	2077	711	32	41	89,73	0,3423	0,0450	0,0286	0,0286	0,0443	0,1541
39	Lettonia	1920	612	3	16	96,90	0,3188	0,0049	0,0000	0,0261	0,0629	0,0156
40	Romania	19402	5467	270	729	81,73	0,2818	0,0494	0,0424	0,1333	0,0975	0,1392
41	Bosnia	3511	901	36	129	81,69	0,2566	0,0400	0,0295	0,1432	0,0497	0,1025
42	Belarus	9492	1981	19	169	90,51	0,2087	0,0096	0,0132	0,0853	0,1743	0,0200
43	Greece	10768	2011	91	269	82,10	0,1868	0,0453	0,0343	0,1338	0,0395	0,0845
44	Poland	38386	5955	181	318	91,62	0,1551	0,0304	0,0193	0,0534	0,0190	0,0472
45	Albania	2877	416	23	182	50,72	0,1446	0,0553	0,0578	0,4375	0,2744	0,0799
46	Slovakia	5450	715	2	23	96,50	0,1312	0,0028	0,0023	0,0322	0,0117	0,0037
47	Kossovo	1810	184	5	30	80,98	0,1017	0,0272	0,0079	0,1630	0,0794	0,0276
48	Hungary	9773	895	58	94	83,02	0,0916	0,0648	0,0417	0,1050	0,0690	0,0593
49	Bulgaria	7000	635	25	54	87,56	0,0907	0,0394	0,0252	0,0850	0,0629	0,0357
50	Russia	146745	11917	94	795	92,54	0,0812	0,0079	0,0082	0,0667	0,0677	0,0064
51	mainland China	1427648	82809	3337	77567	2,30	0,0580	0,0403	0,0403	0,9367	0,9306	-
52	Ukraine	42031	2203	69	61	94,10	0,0524	0,0313	0,0244	0,0277	0,0202	0,0164

 

[Angela]

Well, this is apparently what happens when you take the just "let her rip" and get herd immunity approach of Sweden, the route a lot of people wanted the U.S. to take: cases compared to nearby Denmark are much, much higher.


Which leads to the health care system being overwhelmed, which leads to this document from an eminent Swedish hospital (published in a Swedish paper).
"A document from Karolinska hospital in Stockholm (Sweden’s best hospital) reveals that they will no longer give intensive care to patients over 80, those over 70 with 1 underlying health issue, or those over 60 with 2 under-lying health issues.This comes after the Stockholm region being heavily overloaded by coronavirus patients.
The document is meant to help the doctors making the decision if they should give or stop intensive care treatment for patients."


It's a death sentence for anyone over 70 who gets seriously ill, because most people over 70 will probably have at least one underlying condition. It would cull the over 60s heavily as well. Then, if the health care system was really going to collapse would they go even lower?

 

[Angela]

Great news from Broad Institute at Harvard...this would make actually getting back to work without killing people more feasible, although the logistics are daunting. Where would people go to be tested? Can you imagine the lines? How would they keep track of who has been tested and who hasn't? There are 347M people in the U.S.

" “Given the low cost and scalability of next-generation sequencing, we believe that this method can be affordably scaled to analyze millions of samples per day using existing sequencing infrastructure.”"

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.06.025635v1

Wouldn't it perhaps be easier to just mandate masks for everyone? Mail them for free to people, and then have distribution centers?

 

[Angela]

Some German researchers studying their Carnevale party related hotspot say they doubt that infection can come from fomites, i.e. surfaces.
https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/ho...ers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot

That leaves airborne transmission, which means masks presumably, perhaps even at home?

However, the following is their only really solid piece of evidence. When was the last time the surfaces were cleaned before they were tested?
"Streeck added: "We were in a household where many highly infectious people lived, and yet we did not manage to detect a living virus from any surface.":

 

[Angela]

First Spain, now Quebec; God, I wish I had the prosecution of these people!

"When public health officials and police arrived at the Herron, they found no one in the building who was in a position of authority, according to the sources.“More importantly, the place was described as something akin to a concentration camp,” said a source who agreed to be interviewed on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
“There were (two) patients who were dead in their beds,” the source added. “Their deaths had not been recognized. There were patients who had fallen on the floor. There were patients who hadn’t had any basic care for a number of days, diapers that hadn’t been changed for three or four days, excrement that was covering their skin and patients who hadn’t been fed."
https://montrealgazette.com/news/lo...es-feces-at-dorval-seniors-residence-sources/

 

[Angela]

Given the graph and the acknowledgement that it's such a slow disease, isn't it possible the CFR could be even more than 2%?

[FONT=&quot]The apparent case-fatality rate in South Korea has now increased to 2% with 208 deaths in 10,450 confirmed cases.COVID-19 is often a relatively slow disease. People can take weeks to recover, and some victims take 30 days or longer to die."



[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]




[/FONT]

 

[Jovialis]

The unmitigated gall of the Chinese government...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ing-imported-cases?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

 

[Angela]

The unmitigated gall of the Chinese government...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ing-imported-cases?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

What planet are these people living on? Even foreigners in China believe the party propaganda?

"Several foreign residents stressed, however, that their experiences were not akin to those of Asians in the US and elsewhere, who have been beaten and subjected to racial slurs."

 

[Angela]

Singapore minimized economic disruption, masks weren't widely adopted, and there are migrant clusters. So, cases are rising.

"Note that only a handful of cross-border cases was enough to spark exponential community transmission in Singapore, despite a world class cellphone-based test and trace system. We will need travel restrictions, masks, and public thermometers for awhile."

 

[Angela]

Well, talk about not helpful...are people just rushing to get a citation for a study no matter how crap it is?

"NPR

A study funded by Gilead Sciences evaluating the use of its drug remdesivir to treat 53 seriously ill COVID-19 patients found that some got better.But there was no control group, so strong conclusions weren't possible."

 

[Angela]

Good grief. Should Italy really be following the advice of the Chinese "delegation" sent in to help in their efforts against Covid 19 when it extends to this?

"[h=2]Drones with heat sensors are used to spot people infected with coronavirus walking around during lockdown in Italy"[/h]
"'Attention! You are in a prohibited area. Get out immediately,' commands the drone, about the size of a loaf of bread.
A heat sensor takes the offender's temperature and sends the information to a drone operator, who stares at a thermal map on his hand-held screen - shining orange and purple blobs.

Matteo Copia, police commander in Treviolo, near Bergamo, said: 'Once a person's temperature is read by the drone, you must still stop that person and measure their temperature with a normal thermometer. But drones are useful for controlling the territory.'

'Violations of the regulations result in administrative and criminal penalties,' the drone says."

 

[Angela]

Across ten US States, 30-60% of COVID19 all fatalities are in nursing homes.*Minn, Iowa, RI, VT, Del, Mass, Colo, Illinois, WV.
Time of lockdown was crucial:

"Basic things: Ireland and the UK started this pandemic with roughly the same number of ICU beds (6.5 per 100,000 for Ireland, 6.6 per 100,000 in the UK). If anything, the UK was slightly better off.
As of Saturday 11 April, there have been 6.5 deaths per 100,000 people in Ireland. There have been 14.81 deaths per 100,000 people in the UK."

Ireland cancelled St. Patrick's Day Parade; England held the Cheltenham races and soccer matches.

[FONT=&quot]The National Academy of Sciences sent a letterto the White House saying the coronavirus tests sometimes miss positive cases,perhaps as many as 1 in 3 tests are giving false negatives.

What the news told us about data from Iceland: [/FONT]about 50% of those who test positive are asymptomatic

Reality: most of them developed symptoms later.

 

[ihype02]

The number in Italy remains around 3000-4000, it's not getting better, but it's not getting worse either. I think Italy past it's peak. Same for Spain.

 

[Joey37]

Yeah, that nursing home in North Providence-as well as CVS opening up some quick testing sites-is responsible for the recent increase in cases in Rhode Island. There are more cases connected to that nursing home than in my entire town of Coventry, which has 35,000 people.

 

[Angela]

I can always count on him to demolish a whole paper with one statistical equation. Why are so many scientists such nincompoops when it comes to higher level statistics? It's one reason so many psychology papers are being retracted.

Iosif Lazaridis

Health care workers can't reduce N (it even increases in full hospitals), so anything that reduces P (such as universal masking in hospitals) is a huge win for them in the long run, even if it's a minor win for any single encounter.

1-(1-P)^N

Quote The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal." https://nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372

 

[Angela]

What Hong Kong did right.

https://medium.com/@samgellman/what-hong-kong-has-done-right-2563004e7871

1.Hong Kong began shutting down public facilities when there were fewer than 10 confirmed cases. The government acted with urgency as soon as the first cases began to appear. Hong Kong shut down all schools,parks, and public museums on January 29th when there were just 9 confirmed cases and zero deaths.

2.Hong Kong isolates ALL positive cases and quarantines close contacts in government facilities. Every person who tests positive, even if symptom-free, is put into the public hospital system. Patients are then required to remain at hospitals until they produce two consecutive negative tests. Should hospitals run out of beds, the government will isolate patients in other facilities. Details about every case are made public through government websites. All known contacts of the positive cases must spend 14 days in government quarantine. The importance of isolating positives cannot be understated.

3.Hong Kong’s population has broad virus awareness, largely a result of . The memories and lessons of SARS linger in Hong Kong. Since well before COVID-19, masks have been commonly used by individuals who harbor a common cold. Buttons on elevators are frequently sterilized once if not more times each day. It is customary not to wear shoes within the home and gel sanitizer is widely available throughout shared facilities such as office buildings. The population quickly tapped into virus-prevention mode as soon as the news of the virus circulated from Mainland China. Not wearing a mask is shunned in Hong Kong.

4.Hong Kong tests all people entering the country and requires them to home quarantine for 14 days. Hong Kong only recently implemented severe travel bans, denying entry to non-residents on March 25. There was, however, a 14-day required home quarantine for people arriving from Mainland China, which was then expanded to arrivals from nearly anywhere in the world. While a delay in requiring home quarantine for European and American visitors [/COLOR]led to a second wave of cases, that surge has already begun to flatten. People in home-quarantine wear electronic bracelets that track location.


Believe me, I don't like the sound of all of this either, but if we want to re-open the economy before there's a vaccine for everyone, I think these should be considered by the people on the task forces.

 

[johen]

Believe me, I don't like the sound of all of this either, but if we want to re-open the economy before there's a vaccine for everyone, I think these should be considered by the people on the task forces.

Coronavirus mutation could threaten the race to develop vaccine:

a coronavirus strain isolated in india carried a mutation that could upend vaccine development around the globe, according to researchers from australia and taiwan. the non-peer reviewed study said the change had occurred in part of the spike protein that allows the virus to bind with certain human cells. this structure targets cells containing ace2, an enzyme found in the lungs which also allowed the severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) virus to infect people. scientists know more about this receptor than any other so had been working on antibodies that target it, but an unexpected structural change could render them useless.
the researchers – led by wei-lung wang, from the national changhua university of education in taiwan, and collaborators from murdoch university in australia – said this was the first report of a significant mutation that could threaten development of a vaccine for the virus that causes covid-19. “the observation of this study raised the alarm that sars-cov-2 mutation with varied epitope [something an antibody attaches itself to] profile could arise at any time,” they wrote in a paper released on preprint review site biorxiv.org on saturday. “[this] means current vaccine development against sars-cov-2 is at great risk of becoming futile.” although the strain in question was first sampled by the national institute of virology from a patient in kerala as early as january, the full genome sequence was only released to the international community last month – a delay that raised eyebrows among some researchers.

"Rapid mutation coronavirus ‘mutated into three distinct strains’ as it spread around the world" before the above research

 

[Angela]

Gentlemen, this article is discussed on this thread. The poster and a few others in the comments section are epidemiologists. Just personally, I wouldn't bet on journalists having gotten it right.

See:
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1244750382338719745



The hits just keep a coming...new surges in Asia...

"Foreign" imports in China (returning citizens or residents) or that's what they say, "reactivation" in South Korea, and new cases in Japan after lifting restrictions perhaps.

I just don't think anyone has figured this bug out yet.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-china-asia-countries-resurgence/



That's it. Can't read any more about this tonight...I really didn't want to see pictures.

"A telltale sign of #COVID19: pernio / pseudo-chilblains Painful, swollen and erythematous tips of toes (resembling frostbite)"