New Coronavirus in China

[Angela]

I've sort of been ignoring it, thinking the media might be once again exaggerating everything, but doctors are now expressing concern that 1)China may have been and is under-reporting the number of incidents and numbers of deaths, that 2) contrary to original statements this thing is transmissible from human to human by air or contact with hard surfaces for hours, 3)can be spread during a ten day incubation period when no symptoms are present, and 4) it isn't dangerous just for the very old and immune compromised.

China expects things to accelerate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqUn71O0B6k

Until a good vaccine is created, there's really no treatment. Antibiotics are useless since it's a virus.

The only intelligent option is quarantine. That's what stopped the latest Ebola outbreak. Why the Chinese government hasn't banned egress from their country until they have a better grip on this is beyond me. They've already put huge swathes of the country on lockdown, with no movie theaters open, no public transport, schools closed etc. Hong Kong has also closed its schools.

Another thing I don't understand is the refusal to get serious about the sale of wild animals for meat. For crying out loud, they have cameras everywhere, and you get demerits for wearing the wrong clothes and get put in jail for making a joke about the leadership, but the government lets markets openly sell snake and other meats in, from what everyone who has ever been to mainland China tells me, exceptionally unhygienic "markets"?

The great flu pandemic of 1918, which like this virus attacked the lungs, leading to pneumonia, killed millions worldwide, by some estimates 3-5% of the population.
https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/20...hoCJjQQAvD_BwE

I think it's time to start taking this seriously.

Thin hospital masks are not the answer. Better to wear paper gloves and throw them out after you come inside, for one thing.

[dominique_nuit]

It's about time! I was wondering why there wasn't a thread on this subject here.

This is article from Journal of Virology, theorizing that Wuhan Coronavirus likely transmitted to humans from snakes (though now it is clearly being transmitted human-to-human) ----->

Homologous recombination within the spike glycoprotein of thenewly identified coronavirus 2019-nCoV may boostcross-species transmission from snake to human
ABSTRACT
The current outbreak of viral pneumonia in the city of Wuhan, China, wascaused by a novel coronavirus designated 2019-nCoV by the World HealthOrganization, as determined by sequencing the viral RNA genome. Many initialpatients were exposed to wildlife animals at the Huanan seafood wholesale market,where poultry, snake, bats, and other farm animals were also sold. To determinepossible virus reservoir, we have carried out comprehensive sequence analysis andcomparison in conjunction with relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) biasamong different animal species based on the 2019-nCoV sequence. Results obtainedfrom our analyses suggest that the 2019-nCoV appears to be a recombinant virusbetween the bat coronavirus and an origin-unknown coronavirus. The recombinationoccurred within the viral spike glycoprotein, which recognizes cell surface receptor.Additionally, our findings suggest that snake is the most probable wildlife animalreservoir for the 2019-nCoV based on its RSCU bias close to snake compared to otheranimals. Taken together, our results suggest that homologous recombination withinthe spike glycoprotein may contribute to the 2019-nCoV cross-species transmissionfrom snake to humans.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...1002/jmv.25681

Phylogenetic tree for Wuhan Coronavirus, placing it next to Bat SARS-like viruses =
https://ncbiinsights.ncbi.nlm.nih.go...l-coronavirus/

[dominique_nuit]

Widely divergent views of actions of Chinese government. First video is very critical, and is of interest as it conveys the utter despair of a young Chinese man in Wuhan = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jcvIbWXc8g

Second video is by an American living in China, discussing all the measures Chinese government is taking to contain the pandemic. I very much doubt Western governments will be nearly so resolute and effective once the virus hits our shores (already 5 confirmed cases in USA, and I'm sure there are lots more, still undetected, in NYC alone) ----> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XL11O05lHw

Discussion by two Australian doctors of situation in China, touching on many aspects of the crisis ----> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM

Stefan Molyneux interview with person in Hong Kong, voicing suspicion that panepidemic caused by bioweapons (contrary to the rat-virus-by-way-of-snakes thesis) ----> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zEIQuRg-m4&t=0s

[Angela]

When the medical authorities say the actual number may be 30X higher than the government is saying, I think it's time our governments got their acts together.



John Hopkins University Public Health Office put out something today saying it may be too late to stop a worldwide pandemic. Well, if that's the case it's because China didn't close its borders in time, and other countries didn't close their borders in time.

Quarantines are always the only real solution in situations like this.

[dominique_nuit]

As an inveterate pessimist, I cannot help but suspect that Western authorities are allowing infected & contagious travelers from China into the US and Europe because they are not yet registering a fever or showing other symptoms of novel coronavirus.

If it gets into the NY subway, all bets are off. I don't think we will be nearly so orderly as the Chinese, however great their failings

[Angela]

As an inveterate pessimist, I cannot help but suspect that Western authorities are allowing infected & contagious travelers from China into the US and Europe because they are not yet registering a fever or showing other symptoms of novel coronavirus.

If it gets into the NY subway, all bets are off. I don't think we will be nearly so orderly as the Chinese, however great their failings

I agree. There's no way they are doing anything but looking for a fever and cough. They should be stopping all flights from China or that stopped in China, although it may be too little, too late.

Mongolia has shut its border with China, and neighboring countries are following suit. They have more sense than my own government.

If these scientists are correct, and China knew much earlier than they let on that it was airborne and so high on the contagion scale, then the ultimate responsibility is theirs.

What still boggles my mind is that they want to be a superpower but they still have a completely unhygienic food supply and eat wild animals known to harbor bizarre viruses. This keeps happening. Influenza after influenza spreads from there, then SARS, now this. The rest of the world gets affected. When are they going to address it? I suppose at the same time as they stop polluting.

Btw, I saw a youtube upload from an American trapped in the city at the epicenter of the outbreak with his Chinese wife and child and he said people are completely panicked. No food is left in the stores, and people aren't moving from their homes.

Would it be worse in New York? Absolutely, although I lived through blackouts in lower Manhattan and people were wonderful. The atmosphere has definitely changed, though.

[dominique_nuit]

German man contracted novel coronavirus from asymptomatic Chinese colleague at work training session in Bavaria ===

"The colleague, a woman from Shanghai, "started to feel sick on the flight home on January 23," Andreas Zapf, head of the Bavarian State Office for Health and Food Safety, said at a press conference."

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-confir...rus/a-52169007

[dominique_nuit]

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog:
Restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.
Like everyone else, I’ve been reading the mainstream media reports on the Coronavirus epidemic. I haven’t found any information about the practicalities that immediately occur to me, such as:
1. When public transportation is halted and commerce grinds to a halt as people avoid public places and gatherings, thousands of employees no longer go to work. Who pays their wages while the city is locked down? The employers? Then who compensates the employers, since their income has also gone to zero?
Does China have a universal unemployment insurance system that can quickly issue payments to all people who are no longer going to work and getting a paycheck from an employer?
What about the thousands of migrant workers who don’t have regular employers? Who pays them? If they’re technically not officially sanctioned residents of the city, they don’t exist in government records.
2. If people idled by the lockdown are supposed to live off savings, what about all the marginal workers with few resources? What are they going to live on once their meager savings are gone?
3. Given the choice of obeying the lockdown rules and starving or slipping out of the city to find paid work somewhere else, how many migrant workers will choose to slip away?
4. Unlike the developed West, many people in China still have ancestral villages to return to, rural towns where their grandparents or or other close relatives live. If work has dried up and you’re fearful of catching a potentially lethal virus, wouldn’t it make sense to slip out of the city and make your way back to the village where you can hunker down until the epidemic blows over?
Since people who caught the virus may not know they’re a carrier, how will this migration not spread the disease to rural areas with few medical resources?
5. The typical city has about a week’s supply of food, fuel, etc. at best. If the lockdown runs longer than a few days, scarcities of essentials will ignite hoarding, and remaining supplies will be snapped up.
Since the city’s residents need food, fuel, etc., it must be brought in regardless of the lockdown. This brings outside workers into the city and provides residents desperate to flee avenues to escape the lockdown. Every individual involved in this system is potentially exposed to the virus or is a potential asymptomatic carrier of the virus leaving the city.
These realities leave officials with an impossible choice: either truly isolate the city, which isn’t possible for more than a few days, or allow the stupendous flow of goods required to sustain millions of city residents, thereby creating uncontrollable avenues for the virus to spread beyond the city as transport workers and those fleeing the lockdown travel to other cities.
6. The only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them in full hazmat mode, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease–up to two weeks–and isolate all these individuals until they either develop the disease or pass through the crisis unharmed.
This was the basic procedure used to end the SARS epidemic in 2003. As this article from the The New England Journal of Medicine explains (Another Decade, Another Coronavirus, (via correspondent Cheryl A.), the Wuhan Coronavirus shares characteristics with SARS and cannot be dismissed as just another run-of-the-mill flu virus.
During this process of isolating / quarantining everyone with the disease and everyone they had close contact with, all healthcare workers caring for these people must also remain isolated from the general populace lest they become infected and spread the disease outside the quarantine.
Treating people in crowded hospitals where hundreds of people are coming and going and moving freely into the rest of the city won’t stop a contagion from spreading.
If the only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease–is this even possible in China now?
Please study the map below before claiming it’s still possible.

7. China is making a big show about sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan, but precisely what medical treatments are available for this virus, how effective are these treatments, and do they require a physician to be administered? If the answers are: there are no effective targeted medical treatments for this virus, and doctors are not required to administer what is available, then why expose a scarce resource–physicians–to the disease since they really can’t do much to halt it or heal the patients?
Isn’t sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan more a PR move than anything else? And if it’s basically a PR stunt to appear to be “doing something,” doesn’t that call the entire official response into question?
If there is no targeted treatment available, then the recovery of the patient is a function of their immune system. Building tent hospitals that are porous–healthcare workers returning home after their shift, relatives visiting the stricken, workers moving supplies in and out of other facilities, etc.–will do little to isolate carriers and potential carriers. And since complete isolation is the only way to stem the contagion, these porous tent hospitals won’t do much to limit the contagion.
8. Are the travel bans on tours and other travel restriction measures 100%, in other words, not a single individual is being allowed in or out? If the travel restrictions are haphazard, then what’s stopping asymptomatic carriers of the virus from traveling freely around the world?
There are many other practical questions about the epidemic and China’s response that aren’t being addressed in the conventional media. While we don’t know precisely how contagious and lethal the virus is at this point–and it could mutate into a more contagious and lethal variation within a carrier at any moment–we do know complete isolation of every carrier and everyone they had close contact with is the only way to end the contagion.
We also know cities can’t truly be isolated for longer than a few days, and we know people can’t live without food, water, fuel, etc. and money to buy these essentials. We also know that restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.

[Angela]

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog:
Restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.
Like everyone else, I’ve been reading the mainstream media reports on the Coronavirus epidemic. I haven’t found any information about the practicalities that immediately occur to me, such as:
1. When public transportation is halted and commerce grinds to a halt as people avoid public places and gatherings, thousands of employees no longer go to work. Who pays their wages while the city is locked down? The employers? Then who compensates the employers, since their income has also gone to zero?
Does China have a universal unemployment insurance system that can quickly issue payments to all people who are no longer going to work and getting a paycheck from an employer?
What about the thousands of migrant workers who don’t have regular employers? Who pays them? If they’re technically not officially sanctioned residents of the city, they don’t exist in government records.
2. If people idled by the lockdown are supposed to live off savings, what about all the marginal workers with few resources? What are they going to live on once their meager savings are gone?
3. Given the choice of obeying the lockdown rules and starving or slipping out of the city to find paid work somewhere else, how many migrant workers will choose to slip away?
4. Unlike the developed West, many people in China still have ancestral villages to return to, rural towns where their grandparents or or other close relatives live. If work has dried up and you’re fearful of catching a potentially lethal virus, wouldn’t it make sense to slip out of the city and make your way back to the village where you can hunker down until the epidemic blows over?
Since people who caught the virus may not know they’re a carrier, how will this migration not spread the disease to rural areas with few medical resources?
5. The typical city has about a week’s supply of food, fuel, etc. at best. If the lockdown runs longer than a few days, scarcities of essentials will ignite hoarding, and remaining supplies will be snapped up.
Since the city’s residents need food, fuel, etc., it must be brought in regardless of the lockdown. This brings outside workers into the city and provides residents desperate to flee avenues to escape the lockdown. Every individual involved in this system is potentially exposed to the virus or is a potential asymptomatic carrier of the virus leaving the city.
These realities leave officials with an impossible choice: either truly isolate the city, which isn’t possible for more than a few days, or allow the stupendous flow of goods required to sustain millions of city residents, thereby creating uncontrollable avenues for the virus to spread beyond the city as transport workers and those fleeing the lockdown travel to other cities.
6. The only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them in full hazmat mode, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease–up to two weeks–and isolate all these individuals until they either develop the disease or pass through the crisis unharmed.
This was the basic procedure used to end the SARS epidemic in 2003. As this article from the The New England Journal of Medicine explains (Another Decade, Another Coronavirus, (via correspondent Cheryl A.), the Wuhan Coronavirus shares characteristics with SARS and cannot be dismissed as just another run-of-the-mill flu virus.
During this process of isolating / quarantining everyone with the disease and everyone they had close contact with, all healthcare workers caring for these people must also remain isolated from the general populace lest they become infected and spread the disease outside the quarantine.
Treating people in crowded hospitals where hundreds of people are coming and going and moving freely into the rest of the city won’t stop a contagion from spreading.
If the only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease–is this even possible in China now?
Please study the map below before claiming it’s still possible.

7. China is making a big show about sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan, but precisely what medical treatments are available for this virus, how effective are these treatments, and do they require a physician to be administered? If the answers are: there are no effective targeted medical treatments for this virus, and doctors are not required to administer what is available, then why expose a scarce resource–physicians–to the disease since they really can’t do much to halt it or heal the patients?
Isn’t sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan more a PR move than anything else? And if it’s basically a PR stunt to appear to be “doing something,” doesn’t that call the entire official response into question?
If there is no targeted treatment available, then the recovery of the patient is a function of their immune system. Building tent hospitals that are porous–healthcare workers returning home after their shift, relatives visiting the stricken, workers moving supplies in and out of other facilities, etc.–will do little to isolate carriers and potential carriers. And since complete isolation is the only way to stem the contagion, these porous tent hospitals won’t do much to limit the contagion.
8. Are the travel bans on tours and other travel restriction measures 100%, in other words, not a single individual is being allowed in or out? If the travel restrictions are haphazard, then what’s stopping asymptomatic carriers of the virus from traveling freely around the world?
There are many other practical questions about the epidemic and China’s response that aren’t being addressed in the conventional media. While we don’t know precisely how contagious and lethal the virus is at this point–and it could mutate into a more contagious and lethal variation within a carrier at any moment–we do know complete isolation of every carrier and everyone they had close contact with is the only way to end the contagion.
We also know cities can’t truly be isolated for longer than a few days, and we know people can’t live without food, water, fuel, etc. and money to buy these essentials. We also know that restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.

All excellent questions, most of which only China can answer.

That's why the only solution was and is the closing of China's borders.

It certainly isn't to merrily allow flight after flight to leave from China to destinations around the world.

Might it still get out? Yes,it probably can, but you don't do nothing because what you do wouldn't be 100%.

I recommend to you "The Decameron". :)

American Samoa also never saw a single case of the so-called "Spanish Flu", and that's because they closed their borders.

[Dagne]

I was also following the news on internet, the UK scientists mentioned today that there could be about 100 000 of those who contracted the virus in China by now. Approx 1/4 will have to go to hospital with serious symptoms, while some (up to 3% of those may not be able to survive). Where special intensive care measures are applied - like injecting oxygen right into blood stream when a full lung failure happens - many those who otherwise could have died, can be saved, too.
So overall, now the novel coronavirus mortality rate is similar to that of common flu, (depending on a season, estimated mortality rate for common flu may be 1%-3%. Reliable statistics about common influenza related deaths is not available or difficult to find, but apparently it can also be rather deadly for patients with weaker immune system like children or especially old and otherwise sick people).

In sum, this novel coronavirus is dangerous - who would want to get a flu with a 25% probability of additional pneumonia when it is impossible to breathe ? And be fearful about dying from it, in addition, though it is not very deadly compared to Ebola and SARS - provided medical facilities are available and if they are not overburdened - even if one ends up among 25% with serious symptoms.

The dangerous part is also that the virus seems to be more contagious than common flu, besides, it may mutate into something else (which is more dangerous or less dangerous, which we don't now)

[Dagne]

The issue of Chinese government building new hospitals is very important - people sick with this coronavirus do need special hospital help - one of the symptoms is weakness up to collapsing and inability to breathe (hospitals may help with oxygen masks, and in most serious cases with other live support systems). Besides, keeping weak and contagious patients isolated in hospital is good in terms of reducing the spread of the disease.

This is an extract from an article what about the treatment of novel coronavirus:

"... the disease progresses rapidly during the second week—in a similar fashion to SARS. Hypoxemia caused by increasing lung injury leads to difficulty breathing and the need for oxygen therapy. ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) is a common complication. Between 25 and 32 percent of cases are admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) for mechanical ventilation and sometimes ECMO (pumping blood through an artificial lung for oxygenation).
Other complications include septic shock, acute kidney injury, and virus-induced cardiac injury. The extensive lung damage also sets the lung up for secondary bacterial pneumonia, which occurs in 10 percent of ICU admissions."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/26...nical-profile/

[Angela]

I was also following the news on internet, the UK scientists mentioned today that there could be about 100 000 of those who contracted the virus in China by now. Approx 1/4 will have to go to hospital with serious symptoms, while some (up to 3% of those may not be able to survive). Where special intensive care measures are applied - like injecting oxygen right into blood stream when a full lung failure happens - many those who otherwise could have died, can be saved, too.
So overall, now the novel coronavirus mortality rate is similar to that of common flu, (depending on a season, estimated mortality rate for common flu may be 1%-3%. Reliable statistics about common influenza related deaths is not available or difficult to find, but apparently it can also be rather deadly for patients with weaker immune system like children or especially old and otherwise sick people).

In sum, this novel coronavirus is dangerous - who would want to get a flu with a 25% probability of additional pneumonia when it is impossible to breathe ? And be fearful about dying from it, in addition, though it is not very deadly compared to Ebola and SARS - provided medical facilities are available and if they are not overburdened - even if one ends up among 25% with serious symptoms.

The dangerous part is also that the virus seems to be more contagious than common flu, besides, it may mutate into something else (which is more dangerous or less dangerous, which we don't now)

I guess we're reading different "experts".

"2. @WHO
says it currently appears that about 20% people who contract #2019nCoV experience "severe" illness. No word, though, on what efforts have been made to find mild cases that don't present for care in order to try to understand how much of the iceberg we're seeing."

20% of people who get the flu don't experience "severe" illness, and no, it's not just the elderly or immune compromised who die. One of the first to die was a doctor treating these patients. That's why they're now wearing HAZMAT suits.

Sure hope the experts you're reading are right.

[Dagne]

It certainly isn't to merrily allow flight after flight to leave from China to destinations around the world.
.

Somehow it would be sort of inhuman to disallow people coming from China. In Lt press there is a story about a Chinese student from Wuhan who arrived to Lt yesterday. The university did not agree to give journalists her contacts, because she might be intimidated by all the attention from the press. She is feeling fine now, hopefully all will be fine with her, and even if she has the virus, it is still would be rather inhuman to ban her coming to the university because she "may turn out to be dangerous"

[Dagne]

Yes, I was reading about several doctors who died - one was in his 60-ies, another in 50-ies, one apparently died from virus induced cardiac injury - in simple words heart attack which is also a complication of this virus.



The source of figures that I was quoting are from
"Two studies released on Jan. 24—one about 41 infected patients and the other on a family cluster of six separate from those 41" in the Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...183-5/fulltext

(According to Lancet, out of 41 admitted patients five 12% developed an acute cardiac injury as a complication. And 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.

The study is scientific, though of course, the clinical profile of the disease will be made clear after compiling more information, this was only very start of it.
The death rate of 15% (6 out of 41 died) is high, however, those 41 most apparently already had very severe symptoms (all had pneumonia).
Overall, not everyone gets viral pneumonia from this virus, as I understand, there are such which get only symptoms of a mild cold and are over with it.


I am really sorry about Wuhan people, who are basically have to deal with the situation themselves as I understand - there is no public transport to get to hospitals apart from taxi and if one gets in hospital they have to wait for very long hours to get any medical attention. I do hope situation may be a better, but it is difficult to get something filmed and posted on online in China. It must be very scary.

[Angela]

Somehow it would be sort of inhuman to disallow people coming from China. In Lt press there is a story about a Chinese student from Wuhan who arrived to Lt yesterday. The university did not agree to give journalists her contacts, because she might be intimidated by all the attention from the press. She is feeling fine now, hopefully all will be fine with her, and even if she has the virus, it is still would be rather inhuman to ban her coming to the university because she "may turn out to be dangerous"

Sorry. That's how 1/4 to 1/3 of all Europeans died from the Plague during the Middle Ages.

I'm not equating the severity of the diseases by any means, but sound public health policy always demands quarantine.

China should be quarantined until its under control.

Send supplies, technology, volunteer health professionals, whatever is necessary, but people traveling from China should not be allowed into our countries, period.

[Dagne]

I don't know, you may be right. If we dealt with virus like Ebola, with 25% - 90% death rate, then yes, I agree. Also, I kind of understood if such measures were taken by Hong Kong or Singapore, where the risks of spreading the virus is very hight, and where Chinese people tend to go very often.


On the other hand, if the final mortality rate of this coronavirus is the same like with common flu, when imposing quarantine and fully disrupting live of so many Chinese is too much. After all, if such outbreak happened in the USA city of comparable size like Wuhan I doubt if people would stand it. I just can't imagine all New York or WDC being closed like what they did in Wohan.
After all, WHO should recommend measures of this scale weighting all pros and cons from different national point of views.

[Dagne]

Another thing I don't understand is the refusal to get serious about the sale of wild animals for meat. For crying out loud, they have cameras everywhere, and you get demerits for wearing the wrong clothes and get put in jail for making a joke about the leadership, but the government lets markets openly sell snake and other meats in, from what everyone who has ever been to mainland China tells me, exceptionally unhygienic "markets"?

I very much agree with this. I saw parts of dog meat, which looked exactly like my dog, in one pictures of Wohan market. Absolutely shocking and horrendous. One of WHO officials said that until people eat meat there will always be a risk of coronaviruses appearing.

[Angela]

I very much agree with this. I saw parts of dog meat, which looked exactly like my dog, in one pictures of Wohan market. Absolutely shocking and horrendous. One of WHO officials said that until people eat meat there will always be a risk of coronaviruses appearing.

Well, I don't see Coronavirus showing up in the U.S. and Britain, and we eat a lot of meat.

The point is you can't eat wild animals which are known to harbor terrible viruses, like snake (in this case, they think), or marmots (source of the plague), or monkeys (probably the source of Ebola). The Chinese eat all sorts of wild animals which are not consumed in the west.

Plus, the hygiene there is horrendous. I have a number of very well traveled friends who have been to China, and, having been warned, they brought canned food with them. They said they were so thankful people had told them to bring it, because after seeing the meat markets and pig pens and chicken runs they were appalled.

Chickens, for example, are not clean animals under the best of circumstances. Didn't SARS start in fowl? My mother treated them like toxic waste, soaking them in a salt water brine before cooking them and bleaching all the surfaces which came into contact with them. On her farm, they were handled outdoors, for that very reason. She had lots of rules like that, probably from growing up on a farm: take your shoes off when you come in, wash your hands well as soon as you come indoors, use salt water or vinegar and water to disinfect surfaces, never sneeze into the air, use a handkerchief or at least cough into your sleeve, etc. I follow them all.

Turns out she was even right that your immune system gets weaker if you get suddenly cold. That one I didn't believe, but she was right about that too.

I wouldn't last long in countries without good hygiene. I couldn't even deal with Mexico; got really ill both times I went. So, I've never felt the slightest interest in going to some of these more "exotic" places. Turns out I was right. Imagine being trapped there while all this is going on.

[bicicleur]

BlueDot is a Canadian start-up.
They developped an algorithm based on AI to predict the spread of epedemics.

https://businessam.be/ai-identificee...HcBgpQMWaU7POw

They detected the corona virus in Wuhan on 31 december, before Chinese authorities or WHO made any mention of it, and they predicted the spread to Bangkok, Seoel, Taipei and Tokio based on air traffic.
Their software was first used in 2016 to predict the spread of the Zika-virus.

[Angela]

BlueDot is a Canadian start-up.
They developped an algorithm based on AI to predict the spread of epedemics.

https://businessam.be/ai-identificee...HcBgpQMWaU7POw

They detected the corona virus in Wuhan on 31 december, before Chinese authorities or WHO made any mention of it, and they predicted the spread to Bangkok, Seoel, Taipei and Tokio based on air traffic.
Their software was first used in 2016 to predict the spread of the Zika-virus.

All governments lie at times, but China lies about absolutely everything, so why not this?

You'd think if they can use technology and facial recognition to give demerits for mundane, insane, things, and take away your rights to travel as a result, and they can put millions of people in concentration camps, they could clean up their food supply.

You'd also think they'd be able to close their borders.

[Angela]

British Airways has temporarily suspended all flights to and from mainland China, and Brits repatriated from Wuhan are being put in quarantine for two weeks.

Hong Kong has closed rail and ferry service with China.

It's probably too little too late.

In a macabre side note, all the Starbucks in China have closed. All movie theaters were previously closed. At least in the greater Wuhan area, which covers about 20 million people, no one is going to work and the supermarket shelves are empty.

Their economy is going to take a huge hit.

These poor people. So what if most of the deaths are in people over 55. Do they want to get really sick and worry about their parents or grandparents dying if they contract it as well?

They must be terrified.

[etrusco]

Italian government has just declared a six month special emergency.
First cases of coronavirus reported in Rome : they are a married couple fron Whuan. They landed in Milan about ten days ago with an organized tour . Then visited some sites in the north and then came to Rome. I wonder how many people have been infected since.
Vaccine likely ready for late spring or early summer.

[[email protected]]

Well, I don't see Coronavirus showing up in the U.S. and Britain, and we eat a lot of meat.

The point is you can't eat wild animals which are known to harbor terrible viruses, like snake (in this case, they think), or marmots (source of the plague), or monkeys (probably the source of Ebola). The Chinese eat all sorts of wild animals which are not consumed in the west.

Plus, the hygiene there is horrendous. I have a number of very well traveled friends who have been to China, and, having been warned, they brought canned food with them. They said they were so thankful people had told them to bring it, because after seeing the meat markets and pig pens and chicken runs they were appalled.

Chickens, for example, are not clean animals under the best of circumstances. Didn't SARS start in fowl? My mother treated them like toxic waste, soaking them in a salt water brine before cooking them and bleaching all the surfaces which came into contact with them. On her farm, they were handled outdoors, for that very reason. She had lots of rules like that, probably from growing up on a farm: take your shoes off when you come in, wash your hands well as soon as you come indoors, use salt water or vinegar and water to disinfect surfaces, never sneeze into the air, use a handkerchief or at least cough into your sleeve, etc. I follow them all.

Turns out she was even right that your immune system gets weaker if you get suddenly cold. That one I didn't believe, but she was right about that too.

I wouldn't last long in countries without good hygiene. I couldn't even deal with Mexico; got really ill both times I went. So, I've never felt the slightest interest in going to some of these more "exotic" places. Turns out I was right. Imagine being trapped there while all this is going on.

Two observations. When I was in the Navy we made a port call in Hong Kong. A buddy of mine, for some unknown reason, steered me through a local meat market and, even though this was back when the Brits were in charge, the sights were appalling. Some were simply a difference of Eastern and Western attitudes about the treatment of animals, but the filth and the flies, etc., resting on the haunches of meat put me off my lunch.

Second, we made a port call in Karachi. We were warned not to eat or drink while ashore; I got a canned beer at the embassy however, : ). A couple of cruiser commanders were invited to the restaurant at the Intercontinental hotel for a formal dinner and decided the food must be safe, it's a western hotel after all! They paid with several weeks confined to their quarters and the head (navalese for WC).

Travel is broadening, but one of the things you learn is that "you're not in Kansas anymore" and precautions need to be taken.

[ihype02]

sorry. That's how 1/4 to 1/3 of all europeans died from the plague during the middle ages.

I'm not equating the severity of the diseases by any means, but sound public health policy always demands quarantine.

China should be quarantined until its under control.

Send supplies, technology, volunteer health professionals, whatever is necessary, but people traveling from china should not be allowed into our countries, period.

100% agreed!!!!

[dominique_nuit]

New study states that R factor is 4.08, which is sky high ------>

for some reason, the links that I post do not work???!!!

So if interested, go to the website MedRxiv.org

The article is entitled "Estimating the Effective Reproduction Number of the 2019-nCoV in China

The lead author is Zhidong Cao