Health New Coronavirus in China

[Duarte]

I wonder if I will go back to having long hair, like in my teenage years. Now that it is impossible for me to get a hair-cut for the foreseeable future.

My poor hair, what a tragedy!

I’ve been wearing a different hat every time I go out (to protect from Covid-19 too).

... not the one below yet, I’m in very blue State.

It's not good for my health around here, lol

@Jovialis @Salento
Good morning dear friends. It’s time to make some physical exercises. The long quarantine asks for this, sometimes. Besides the hair is getting longer and, of course, more uncomfortable For me there is also the discomfort of a very white beard that, sometimes, I darkened it with ‘Grecian 5’ to shades of gray. Nothing that cannot be overcome when the barbershops will reopen.
Fraternal greetings

Prepared to visit my brother:

 

[bigsnake49]

Ok
now the bad or good news,

The arangements, the mathetical agrrements etc
Are the obvious,
same treaty,
simmilar age gender etc,
no new treatment / cure
confirmation is under same random conditions, and not chosen
etc
etc



lets see
1. Recovery has a delay of more than 20 days
a death for example can be from day 5 to day ... , but a confirmed recovery should be after 21-24 Days
2. true Mortality and true Recovery rate when added must result 1 M+R= 1 (100%)
it can bee seen at mainland China

Now
Active% column (7 column) is how wrong both current Mortality and current Recovery are,
the bigger % the more wrong,
we can make some estimations, about Deaths, with a statistical mistake at second class numbers, when bellow 68,1%, yet the deviation is ...

Current Mortality is present mortality,

so for example in Spain we have M+R=36.59% to predict the rest 63.41% (coloumn Active)
If NO NEW cases enter, we are certain mortality M will have a grow, but much less than R, since Recovery has a delay.

Condidering the above, each can make his own estimation, on present Data bellow
The problem to have more accurate is the time publishing, the correct reports, etc , either M either R,
usually there is also a secondary delay to declare Recovery cases, for known reasons

	COUNTRY	Population /1000	Confirmed infected	deaths upon confirmed	recover	Active %	Confirmed infected /1000 people	Current mortality	Recover rate	Estimated mortality up lim	Estimated mortality low lim	estimated deaths *
1	San Marino	33	259	32	27	77,22	7,8485	0,1236	0,1042
2	Andora	76	466	17	21	91,85	6,1316	0,0365	0,0451
3	Luxenbourg	614	2729	31	500	80,54	4,4446	0,0114	0,1832
4	Iceland	364	1417	4	396	71,77	3,8929	0,0028	0,2795
5	Feroe isls	52	181	0	93	48,62	3,4808	0,0000	0,5138
6	Spain	46733	126168	11947	34219	63,41	2,6998	0,0947	0,2712
7	Swiss	8570	20505	666	6415	65,47	2,3926	0,0325	0,3129
8	Italy	60318	124632	15362	20996	70,83	2,0662	0,1233	0,1685
9	Liechtenstein	39	77	1	0	98,70	1,9744	0,0130	0,0000
10	Belgium	11516	18431	1283	3247	75,42	1,6005	0,0696	0,1762
11	France	67022	89953	7560	15438	74,43	1,3421	0,0840	0,1716
12	Austria	8903	11781	186	2507	77,14	1,3233	0,0158	0,2128
13	EU	449507	534151	40896	106448	72,42	1,1883	0,0766	0,1993
14	Deutch	83149	96092	1444	26400	71,02	1,1557	0,0150	0,2747
15	Norway	5368	5550	62	32	98,31	1,0339	0,0112	0,0058
16	Porugal	10277	10524	266	75	96,76	1,0240	0,0253	0,0071
17	Netherlands	17425	16627	1651	250	88,57	0,9542	0,0993	0,0150
18	USA	328240	312076	8499	14997	92,47	0,9508	0,0272	0,0481
19	Esthonia	1328	1039	13	59	93,07	0,7824	0,0125	0,0568
20	Ireland	6573	4604	137	25	96,48	0,7004	0,0298	0,0054
21	Denmark	5823	4077	161	1283	64,58	0,7002	0,0395	0,3147
22	sweden	10303	6553	373	205	91,18	0,6360	0,0569	0,0313
23	UK	67547	41903	4313	135	89,39	0,6204	0,1029	0,0032
24	Slovenia	2100	977	22	79	89,66	0,4652	0,0225	0,0809
25	Malta	494	213	0	2	99,06	0,4312	0,0000	0,0094
26	Czech	10650	4472	59	78	96,94	0,4199	0,0132	0,0174
27	Cyprus	1189	426	9	33	90,14	0,3583	0,0211	0,0775
28	Finland	5521	1882	25	300	82,73	0,3409	0,0133	0,1594
29	Montenegro	631	201	2	1	98,51	0,3185	0,0100	0,0050
30	Turkey	82004	23934	501	786	94,62	0,2919	0,0209	0,0328
31	Moldova	2682	752	12	29	94,55	0,2804	0,0160	0,0386
32	Croatia	4076	1126	12	119	88,37	0,2763	0,0107	0,1057
33	Lithuania	2794	771	11	7	97,67	0,2759	0,0143	0,0091
34	Lettonia	1920	509	1	1	99,61	0,2651	0,0020	0,0020
35	Serbia	6964	1624	44	0	97,29	0,2332	0,0271	0,0000
36	Severna Mac	2077	483	17	20	92,34	0,2325	0,0352	0,0414
37	Romania	19402	3613	146	329	86,85	0,1862	0,0404	0,0911
38	Bosnia	3511	624	21	30	91,83	0,1777	0,0337	0,0481
39	Greece	10768	1673	68	78	91,27	0,1554	0,0406	0,0466
40	Albania	2877	333	20	99	64,26	0,1157	0,0601	0,2973
41	Poland	38386	3627	79	116	94,62	0,0945	0,0218	0,0320
42	Slovakia	5450	471	1	10	97,66	0,0864	0,0021	0,0212
43	Kossovo	1810	135	1	16	87,41	0,0746	0,0074	0,1185
44	Bulgaria	7000	503	17	34	89,86	0,0719	0,0338	0,0676
45	Hungary	9773	678	32	58	86,73	0,0694	0,0472	0,0855
46	mainland China	1427648	82574	3333	77160	2,52	0,0578	0,0404	0,9344
47	Belarus	9492	440	5	53	86,82	0,0464	0,0114	0,1205
48	Russia	146745	4731	43	333	92,05	0,0322	0,0091	0,0704
49	Ukraine	42031	1225	32	25	95,35	0,0291	0,0261	0,0204

The EU mortality rate is 3 times that of the US. Any reasons for that?

 

[nordicwarrior]

Covid 19 origins

I have located enough information to begin a serious discussion about whether or not this "Wuhan Flu" was man-made. I would like to start a seperate thread on this topic but am having trouble doing so.

 

[Salento]

@Duarte

I'm in one of the epicenters of the Pandemic.

I interrupted all physical activity a few days ago.

I've decided to save my energy in case I need it.

In the short term, it is probably the right decision for me, maybe

I'm in excellent shape anyway!

 

[nordicwarrior]

E.U. mortality rates are higher than U.S. mainly because virus has been established in Europe longer. Unfortunately we Americans will catch up to you all over the pond soon enough. This bug has what I've been calling a "wrap around" effect that can bring you down two or three weeks after your first symptoms. It takes a good 35 days before someone can begin to claim they have conquered the Chinese virus... really full six months is needed.

 

[nordicwarrior]

I just said a prayer for you Salento. Stay safe, stay strong.

 

[Northener]

there is a discussion here, to pass all population under check,
until Octomber, when they plan to open boarders, could this be done?

Most afraid that they will be forced to be infected,
if that is a primary for a job, specially at jobs like transportations, international or public, (tracks, busses, ships, airplanes)
and secondary at social and working gathering places, like cantines, cafe etc

I guess we have to expect soms ups and downs. When the (partial) lock downs have effect (the pressure on the health care is more proportional) the measures will be loosened.....Then we will may have a rebound. Then again a (partly) lockdown. Until the situation we get some kind of herd immunity.

 

[Salento]

I just said a prayer for you Salento. Stay safe, stay strong.

Thanks, ... just got an explosion of energy

I’ll pray for “Urbi et Orbi” and for you too.

 

[Salento]

 

[johen]

This damn virus looks like Genghis khan, PETROLEUM PRICE is too low now.

Genghis khan the green: invader killed so many people that carbon levels plummeted

Genghis Khan has been branded the greenest invader in history - after his murderous conquests killed so many people that huge swathes of cultivated land returned to forest.

The Mongol leader, who established a vast empire between the 13th and 14th centuries, helped remove nearly 700million tons of carbon from the atmosphere, claims a new study.


And, although his methods may be difficult for environmentalists to accept, ecologists believe it may be the first ever case of successful manmade global cooling.
‘It's a common misconception that the human impact on climate began with the large-scale burning of coal and oil in the industrial era,’ said Julia Pongratz, who headed the research by the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology.
‘Actually, humans started to influence the environment thousands of years ago by changing the vegetation cover of the Earth's landscapes when we cleared forests for agriculture,’ she told Mongabay.com.
The 700million tons of carbon absorbed as a result of the Mongol empire is about the same produced in a year from the global use of petrol.


The Carnegie study measured the carbon impact of a number of historical events that involved a large number of deaths.
Time periods also looked at included the Black Death in Europe, the fall of China's Ming Dynasty and the conquest of the Americas.
All of these events share a widespread return of forests after a period of massive depopulation.

 

[Angela]

Well, I have this special hissing sound coming out of my chest if I want to exhale fully. I remember it from my childhood when I used to have bronchitis so very often. Otherwise, I feel fully healthy (90% of the time), I never had any fever, just a bit of cough and itchy throat for some moments some three weeks ago. Could it mean I am a carrier of the virus, or this is just my imagination? I am not visiting anyone, especially my aunt which is in the risk group, but she has been having similar mild symptoms anyway, too (not fever though). My very good friend, her daughter and her mother who lives in other town - they also had similar symptoms. Does that mean we are all carriers?

There's no way of knowing, Dagne. It could be a cold, or an influenza, especially as there's no high fever.

The only way to know for sure is to get tested, and here they still won't test people unless you either present symptoms including high fever, or have come into contact with someone who is positive for it.

Until there are lots more kits available that's the way it will be...

The only really important test going forward will be the antibody test, but it's also going to take time so as to be as sure as humanly possible that it is accurate.

 

[Yetos]

The EU mortality rate is 3 times that of the US. Any reasons for that?

EU was booming 1 month longer than USA,
the delay of days to be reported as dead or recovered,
and big number of new infected that import the existing, are the problem to see this
Italy is as Greece a country of aged,
I do notknow about Spain how much aged it is

Notice at big countries of EU the active % is less than 80
the USA is above 90, so Mortality will change a lot,
I do not express it at ENglish, the term is μαθηματικες παραδοχες.
if the above are equal to EU and USA then we can compare better,
Yet the samples of USA are not so 'mature' to extract correct numbers of M or R
Now is booming spread, after 7-14 days is expected to boom the numbers of dead, due to delay
and after 24 days to boom the numbers of Recovered again due to delay of cure

The second reason is that in USA the new infected enter fast these days,
that drops Mortality,

a very intresting case is UK.
when comparing spread mortality and recovery,
it seems like hell if infected, for now, since Recovery is very very low


Agreement is that at all cases, death or recovery, is anounced and published fast.
but usually death are anounced faster than recoveries

Notice apearance order after Mortality
UK and Netherlands, Albania Hungary show high, when comparing with Spread of infection (by eye view, not calculate)
and USA is now lower than mainland China

When reach Immune of the heard/pack the tense of mortality is almost zero,
and according the entrance of data sometimes tense could be negative. (tense not Mortality)

Lets hope that not only USA, But all the world, keep lower Mortality, or better to be Zero

	COUNTRY	Population /1000	Confirmed infected	deaths upon confirmed	recover	Active %	Confirmed infected /1000 people	Current mortality	Recover rate
1	San Marino	33	259	32	27	77,2201	7,8485	0,1236	0,1042
2	Italy	60318	124632	15362	20996	70,8277	2,0662	0,1233	0,1685
3	UK	67547	41903	4313	135	89,3850	0,6204	0,1029	0,0032
4	Netherlands	17425	16627	1651	250	88,5668	0,9542	0,0993	0,0150
5	Spain	46733	126168	11947	34219	63,4091	2,6998	0,0947	0,2712
6	France	67022	89953	7560	15438	74,4333	1,3421	0,0840	0,1716
7	EU	449507	534151	40896	106448	72,4153	1,1883	0,0766	0,1993
8	Belgium	11516	18431	1283	3247	75,4218	1,6005	0,0696	0,1762
9	Albania	2877	333	20	99	64,2643	0,1157	0,0601	0,2973
10	sweden	10303	6553	373	205	91,1796	0,6360	0,0569	0,0313
11	Hungary	9773	678	32	58	86,7257	0,0694	0,0472	0,0855
12	Greece	10768	1673	68	78	91,2732	0,1554	0,0406	0,0466
13	Romania	19402	3613	146	329	86,8530	0,1862	0,0404	0,0911
14	mainland China	1427648	82574	3333	77160	2,5202	0,0578	0,0404	0,9344
15	Denmark	5823	4077	161	1283	64,5818	0,7002	0,0395	0,3147
16	Andora	76	466	17	21	91,8455	6,1316	0,0365	0,0451
17	Severna Mac	2077	483	17	20	92,3395	0,2325	0,0352	0,0414
18	Bulgaria	7000	503	17	34	89,8608	0,0719	0,0338	0,0676
19	Bosnia	3511	624	21	30	91,8269	0,1777	0,0337	0,0481
20	Swiss	8570	20505	666	6415	65,4670	2,3926	0,0325	0,3129
21	Ireland	6573	4604	137	25	96,4813	0,7004	0,0298	0,0054
22	USA	328240	312076	8499	14997	92,4711	0,9508	0,0272	0,0481
23	Serbia	6964	1624	44	0	97,2906	0,2332	0,0271	0,0000
24	Ukraine	42031	1225	32	25	95,3469	0,0291	0,0261	0,0204
25	Porugal	10277	10524	266	75	96,7598	1,0240	0,0253	0,0071
26	Slovenia	2100	977	22	79	89,6622	0,4652	0,0225	0,0809
27	Poland	38386	3627	79	116	94,6237	0,0945	0,0218	0,0320
28	Cyprus	1189	426	9	33	90,1408	0,3583	0,0211	0,0775
29	Turkey	82004	23934	501	786	94,6227	0,2919	0,0209	0,0328
30	Moldova	2682	752	12	29	94,5479	0,2804	0,0160	0,0386

 

[Northener]

Well, I have this special hissing sound coming out of my chest if I want to exhale fully. I remember it from my childhood when I used to have bronchitis so very often. Otherwise, I feel fully healthy (90% of the time), I never had any fever, just a bit of cough and itchy throat for some moments some three weeks ago. Could it mean I am a carrier of the virus, or this is just my imagination? I am not visiting anyone, especially my aunt which is in the risk group, but she has been having similar mild symptoms anyway, too (not fever though). My very good friend, her daughter and her mother who lives in other town - they also had similar symptoms. Does that mean we are all carriers?

Have you lost taste and smell? Besides high fever this seems like the indicators of corona.

 

[Yetos]

Have you lost taste and smell? Besides high fever this seems like the indicators of corona.

right Taste and smell

 

[johen]

Have you lost taste and smell? Besides high fever this seems like the indicators of corona.

looks like she has a symptom of asthma. (maybe b/c of carpet?)

windows are all closed.

 

[Angela]

Now it's time for the antibody testing.

 

[johen]

Now it's time for the antibody testing.

Thy will be done.

a staff member at the aids service center of new york city holding an antibody testing kit. mike segar/reuters


"Henry Schein last week announced the availability of hundreds of thousands of antibody tests in the US that can deliver results within 15 minutes. The company said it expected "significantly increased availability" in April.
In Colorado, United Biomedical is working with one county to test 8,000 residents for coronavirus antibodies.
Other US companies are already selling antibody tests abroad. The California biotech company Biomerica sells coronavirus antibody tests for less than $10 in Europe and the Middle East, while Chembio Diagnostics, a medical-device company based in New York, is sending its antibody tests to Brazil and plans to study them in the US, Reuters reported last week.
The UK government bought 3.5 million at-home antibody tests last week and is looking to distribute them to people who are self-isolating as soon as possible, The Guardian reported. Australia has ordered 1.5 million tests."

 

[Angela]

looks like she has a symptom of asthma. (maybe b/c of carpet?)

windows are all closed.

The flu or even a bad cold can trigger that wheezing. I've had it too.

My daughter used to get it so badly with colds that the first time it happened I rushed her to the emergency room.

When it starts I have medication for it.

 

[bigsnake49]

By no means this is a serum! But a mixture of Elderberry and Echinacea has a good potential to prevent you against the coronavirus.

It's of course no miracle and we have to stay sceptic, but scientific research is promising in this respect.

I.Elderberry against corona:


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3899428/pdf/12917_2013_Article_849.pdf

II. Echina against corona:



https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-15282/v2

Regarding the last research I'm somewhat more skeptical because it's partly a company who has an interest that is participating, on the other hand it's a very respected Swiss institute that is participating.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiez_Laboratory

For me reasons enough to give it the benefit of the doubt!!!

Sorry, not falling for the echinacea against coronavirus hype. It does nothing against the cold, another coronavirus.

 

[Angela]

Sorry, not falling for the echinacea against coronavirus hype. It does nothing against the cold, another coronavirus.

Smart man.