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Thread: Why is mortality from Covid-19 higher in Italy?

  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dagne View Post


    According to this article https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...ronavirus.html
    Italy suffers from a different strain of coronavirus than elsewhere. "Methods used to trace the prehistoric migration of ancient humans were adapted to track the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19. The team have now updated their analysis to include more than 1,000 COVID-19 cases up to the end of March to provide a clearer snapshot. It has not yet been peer-reviewed."

    I wish someone could comment on how much this study could be trusted - if the predominant strain in Italy is different from other places in Europe and Americas, perhaps it is really more lethal ? On the other hand, if we take deaths per 1000 population, then Belgium is in the first place. At the same time, it is not reasonable to compare countries with different real infection rate, different progress in term of peak time, etc.

    Well, that would certainly explain it, but the researchers say this:

    "The virus appears to mutate very slowly, with only tiny differences between the different strains and that none of the strains of the virus are more deadly than another, experts say.They also added it does not appear the strains will grow more lethal as they evolve."


    Do I believe that? I don't know. I don't think anyone really knows anything definitively yet.

    As for the other assertions in the paper, they seem to contradict what "Next Strain" found. I linked to it above. Take a look and see what you think. More eyes and brains are always better than one. :)

    They do seem to show two different entries into Europe, one from China directly, mediated mostly through Belgium, it seems, and one perhaps from Singapore. I can't tell from the map if that was directly from Singapore, or if it was mediated through Australia. However, although Italy does show up there as one of the infected countries, there don't seem to be any subsequent samples with that particular mutation from Italy. So, how could most of the cases in Italy be of that strain if their sampling was representative?

    There are other strains into Italy from the "parent" one from Belgium.

    I could be all wrong about this, let's be clear.

    For what it's worth the original paper by this group was criticized in a lot of quarters.

    https://nextstrain.org/narratives/nc.../zh/2020-04-10

    As for Sweden, they seem remarkably comfortable, to me, with saying well, they're old, they were in poor health anyway, so that's a blow we can absorb. That's even before it was known there were lasting effects in people with severe cases.

    I can only say I'm glad my elderly relatives don't live in Sweden.


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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Theory for the lower mortality in South Italy compared to North Italy: human leukocyte antigen (HLA).


    Coronavirus, il Sud Italia protetto da uno «scudo genetico». La nuova tesi degli immunologi
    https://www.ilmessaggero.it/salute/f...0-5255221.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regio X View Post
    Theory for the lower mortality in South Italy compared to North Italy: human leukocyte antigen (HLA).


    Coronavirus, il Sud Italia protetto da uno «scudo genetico». La nuova tesi degli immunologi
    https://www.ilmessaggero.it/salute/f...0-5255221.html
    The article is only for subscribers. Do they mention which HLA types are more common in the North vs South?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    The article is only for subscribers. Do they mention which HLA types are more common in the North vs South?
    They don't, unfortunately.

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    The article is only for subscribers. Do they mention which HLA types are more common in the North vs South?
    No association to HLA would have been found:
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....31.20114991v1

    Apparently some genetic risks are:
    - blood type A
    - rs11385942 (insertion A)
    - APOE-ε4 homozygosity ( https://academic.oup.com/biomedgeron...laa131/5843454 )

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regio X View Post
    No association to HLA would have been found:
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....31.20114991v1

    Apparently some genetic risks are:
    - blood type A
    - rs11385942 (insertion A)
    - APOE-ε4 homozygosity ( https://academic.oup.com/biomedgeron...laa131/5843454 )
    Thanks for the update. Too bad that rs11385942 is not tested by any of the main personal genomics companies like 23andMe, FTDNA, Ancetsry or Living DNA.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    Thanks for the update. Too bad that rs11385942 is not tested by any of the main personal genomics companies like 23andMe, FTDNA, Ancetsry or Living DNA.
    You could check rs10490770 instead (apparently it doesn't work as proxy for people with African or Hispanic descent, but it'd work well for Caucasians - over 90% of cases).

    From SNPedia:
    "Note that rs11385942 is not present on the DNA chips used by the major direct-to-consumer genotyping companies such as 23andMe, Ancestry and MyHeritage. In Caucasians, a SNP present on most Ancestry chips, rs10490770, is a reasonable proxy for rs11385942. The minor allele of rs10490770(C) corresponds most of the time (r2 >0.9 in Caucasians) to the minor rs11385942(A) allele based on data available in ensembl. There is no equivalent linkage in those of African descent; and the correlation is low in Hispanic populations (r2 < 0.2)."

    Fortunately, my rs10490770 result in 23andMe is TT.

    But we should keep in mind that rs10490770(C) doesn't "always" correspond to rs11385942(A) even in Caucasians.

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