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Thread: What will the world be like after coronavirus? Four possible futures

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    1 members found this post helpful.

    What will the world be like after coronavirus? Four possible futures

    https://theconversation.com/what-wil...MRmsZ8Ir2-sqyI

    This is really an interesting article!

    I really don't want the world go back to normal business as usual after the coronavirus. It is so true, the current economic model is not fit, not healthy for us all to live by. We all know that many jobs are about nothing - pointless jobs, but somehow, they are the best paid ones, like jobs in financial sector...

    This is what the author of the article says:

    The responses to the COVID-19 pandemic are simply the amplification of the dynamic that drives other social and ecological crises: the prioritisation of one type of value over others. This dynamic has played a large part in driving global responses to COVID-19. So as responses to the virus evolve, how might our economic futures develop?
    From an economic perspective, there are four possible futures: a descent into barbarism, a robust state capitalism, a radical state socialism, and a transformation into a big society built on mutual aid. Versions of all of these futures are perfectly possible, if not equally desirable.
    [....]

    So what we need is a different economic mindset. We tend to think of the economy as the way we buy and sell things, mainly consumer goods. But this is not what an economy is or needs to be. At its core, the economy is the way we take our resources and turn them into the things we need to live. Looked at this way, we can start to see more opportunities for living differently that allow us to produce less stuff without increasing misery.

    Proposals include reducing the length of the working week, or, as some of my recent work has looked at, you could allow people to work more slowly and with less pressure. Neither of these is directly applicable to COVID-19, where the aim is reducing contact rather than output, but the core of the proposals is the same. You have to reduce people’s dependence on a wage to be able to live.

    [...]

    Many of the best paid jobs only exist to facilitate exchanges; to make money. They serve no wider purpose to society: they are what the anthropologist David Graeber calls “bullshit jobs”. Yet because they make lots of money we have lots of consultants, a huge advertising industry and a massive financial sector. Meanwhile, we have a crisis in health and social care, where people are often forced out of useful jobs they enjoy, because these jobs don’t pay them enough to live.

    [...]

    The current mindset is driven by two linked beliefs:


    • The market is what delivers a good quality of life, so it must be protected
    • The market will always return to normal after short periods of crisis

    These views are common to many Western countries. But they are strongest in the UK and the US, both of which have appeared to be badly prepared to respond to COVID-19.
    In the UK, attendees at a private engagement reportedly summarised the Prime Minister’s most senior aide’s approach to COVID-19 as “herd immunity, protect the economy, and if that means some pensioners die, too bad”. The government has denied this, but if real, it’s not surprising. At a government event early in the pandemic, a senior civil servant said to me: “Is it worth the economic disruption? If you look at the treasury valuation of a life, probably not.”


    Four futures


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    I hope that for the US we will bring back the manufacturing capacity for critical medical supplies and generic drug manufacturing. It might not bring back many jobs since the factories will probably be highly automated but we cannot be dependent on a potential enemy (China). We are dependent on China for way too many things. I hope all countries take the same road.

    I want our Walmarts and Targets to stop making stuff in China and start manufacturing them in Mexico or Guatemala or anywhere but China. We don't want to be making China rich.

    I want us to stop wasting money on wars overseas. I want us to be taking advantage of all the free energy that Mother Nature has to offer. Make this planet free of internal combustion engines and the pollution they spew. Not just the particulate pollution but the noise pollution. I want a clean, quite planet so I can hear the joyous noises of kids playing in the parks, the crickets in the trees and the birds in the skies. But let's start with taking fewer trips to the store. Combine them on certain days. Walk to the store or take your bike.

    Source fruits and vegetables locally not from California or Chile or Mexico. I want fresh broccoli, I don't want broccoli that's already 3 weeks old by the time I get it. Use more trains and less long distance trucks. Much more efficient to ship by train than truck. To that effect, double all train tracks.

    Let more people work from home so we can reduce commuter traffic.

    Learn the lessons from this pandemic and don't repeat them.

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    Ιf I read well, I think that is quietly pollitical couloured. Nothing wrong if someone propangadate any political option or opinion.
    But the wrong is to lay claims for daphne garlands for objectivity. I also dont find guiet productive the foundamental elements, as
    well the approach about "four Futures" . Therefore the scheme (figure) is problematic, because is relatively true.
    I am quite surprized that: <<...these views are common to U.S & U.K...>>.
    (tsk tsk crypto-proletariat... lol)


    We here (greece) we dont follow -anymore -that kind of dialectic bipolar apprach, and the most interesting is, that is not a trend
    among the cultural elite but mostly a public "demand" which inevitably all the greek govermerments since on in cryptic, they agree.
    We dont have the size or the luxurry to own our pure Right, or pure Left perspectives.
    Here we have mascarata left, and mascarata right, which is quite successfull method in long term. -Really.


    I have great laughs with the analysts which consider that Mitsotakis had succesfull political decisions etc. etc
    That is also partially true. Actually he faced an one way road... the road of his people will(greeks), and you know that goes even for Tsipras too.
    They couldn;t both get far away. It is outside of the borders of the hellenocentric political cosmoideal.


    In our collective conscience we are traumatized and ethically embarassed for the previous decade with the incidents concerns about the economic crisis.
    The "next day" for us, is the de-incrimination about a public debt that burden us. The best response come on with a common will of governance and
    citizens to agree that: First is the people and second is their properties.


    For the case I have 3+1 for future options.

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    (the 3+1 hypothetical scenarios)

    Eu-topic: Everything goes fine after some changes.
    Dys-topic: After some changes the things gets worst.
    U-topic: We dont need changes, the "economy" will self-regullate.
    and finally the
    A-topic: We can made it ourselves, we dont need no one.


    (while utopia exist in a theoretical level, the atopia express the non existance state, allthough necessary to define the "zero" and the out of question propabillity while utopic is still a possibility. Therefore the 3+1)


    I am 51% in favour of the Eutopic scenario... Your bets gentlemen.

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    @ Bigsnake The thread about the snake greeks, It was about you
    They uncover you.

    Christos Anesti.

    (... and the apple at the tree of genesis was zagorin...)
    ' ¨Ολα ελληνικά πχιά. !!!

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    I don't think anyone knows, just like no one anticipated what the post-war world would look like after the Germans and Japanese were defeated.

    The one thing you can count on about human societies imo is that hindsight is 20/20, but human beings are not always that easy to predict looking forward. Unintended consequences rule.


    Non si fa il proprio dovere perchè qualcuno ci dica grazie, lo si fa per principio, per se stessi, per la propria dignità. Oriana Fallaci

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    Always strange scenarios attract me,

    and since the virus 'beat' the N Atlantic more,
    I am in a fear of a new 'Cold war',
    but to do that, you to rebuild industry in N Atlantic
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    Quote Originally Posted by ΠΑΝΑΞ View Post
    @ Bigsnake The thread about the snake greeks, It was about you
    They uncover you.

    Christos Anesti.

    (... and the apple at the tree of genesis was zagorin...)
    ' ¨Ολα ελληνικά πχιά. !!!
    What thread? Uncovered by whom?

    Αληθώς Ανέστη!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ΠΑΝΑΞ View Post
    (the 3+1 hypothetical scenarios)

    Eu-topic: Everything goes fine after some changes.
    Dys-topic: After some changes the things gets worst.
    U-topic: We dont need changes, the "economy" will self-regullate.
    and finally the
    A-topic: We can made it ourselves, we dont need no one.


    (while utopia exist in a theoretical level, the atopia express the non existance state, allthough necessary to define the "zero" and the out of question propabillity while utopic is still a possibility. Therefore the 3+1)


    I am 51% in favour of the Eutopic scenario... Your bets gentlemen.
    I was never for joining the EU without gaining concessions from the Northern Exporting countries to invest in Greece. And no, roads to accommodate long trucks so they can transit through Greece on the way to Turkey and the Middle East does not count. I did not want Geece to become just a market for them. I think Greece does not need the EU. The bigger question is what are the rest of Southern Europe (Portugal, Spain, Italy) going to do? Do they withdraw from the European Union but stay in the Common Market?

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    One thing from this C0-19 is that globalization will be pulled back somewhat and the system that a handful of countries will produce everything will be diminished ...............national governments will put in place more control on what is made in the country and what is not ....................back to the world wide riots many decades ago when these people where proven correct. Do not put all your eggs in one basket
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    Quote Originally Posted by torzio View Post
    One thing from this C0-19 is that globalization will be pulled back somewhat and the system that a handful of countries will produce everything will be diminished ...............national governments will put in place more control on what is made in the country and what is not ....................back to the world wide riots many decades ago when these people where proven correct.
    I hope they do get more control on what is made in the country. They were exposed in the worst way.

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    Currently, the COVID-19 crisis is here, but the majority expect that everything will go back - preferably shortly. In this situation everything will stay as it is - more or less.
    Perhaps, some production related to security issues like basic health sector might be moved back nationally. But I don't think it will hold under market pressure - if COVID is removed and well forgotten.

    However, if COVID-19 is here to stay, coming back in waves, probably deeper and longer than this first one, involving multiple bankruptcies, financial crisis of the banking sector, if people and governments really cannot longer go as they used to be, then, and only under such drastic pressure, the whole world economy might change.

    The good point of such really bad crisis is that such massive cut-off of "surplus global economy" might help in dealing with climate issues. The climate crisis may seem abstract and remote today, but after some time (50 years) it may hit very hard, harder than the current COVID-19 crisis. Radical changes in the economy are very hard to accomplish and they do not happen on their own, without crisis situation. Though many people see that consumer society is full of vanity, overuse of resources, full of unnecessary stress that would be good to get rid off, but going back to core economy and core values is very painful, as it means that many people who used to earn well - those in advertising business, fashion, consulting, government, financial services - are really redundant and have to radically change their lifestyle starting jobs that are really useful.

    Let's see how it all develops. And plant some vegetables/fruit if you have such an opportunity :)

    Besides, I've read that some American crude oil had negative price today! It is fully unheard off. Very interesting, I will follow developments on oil price, and what it means for the rest of share markets.

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    I think it's a mistake to think that lifting the lockdowns is going to help some businesses in the short term.

    In South Korea the lockdown is over, but people are not going to restaurants, movie theaters etc. Sports fans are mad, so they may go to games. :)

    I've had a recurrent nightmare my whole life about an armageddon arriving and my family and I having to go to an empty clearing in the woods with seeds and equipment and animals. The amount of detail in the dreams has always been extraordinary. The "enemy" there was an invader, but...

    I don't know if it's connected, but I've always liked the whole idea of off the grid "small house" living, at least for a vacation house.

    Now all I have to do is persuade everyone else in my family! :) I personally could get into this...just more open setting so more sun and light.


    Maybe I'm just starting not to like most people very much as I get older. My father was the same. He and my uncle bought 100 acres of land and split it to build houses. They used to joke they'd put electrified fencing with a gate around it and you need the password to get in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    I was never for joining the EU without gaining concessions from the Northern Exporting countries to invest in Greece. And no, roads to accommodate long trucks so they can transit through Greece on the way to Turkey and the Middle East does not count. I did not want Geece to become just a market for them. I think Greece does not need the EU. The bigger question is what are the rest of Southern Europe (Portugal, Spain, Italy) going to do? Do they withdraw from the European Union but stay in the Common Market?
    I think it does,

    the longest Democracy in Greece is the last, inside EU, 46 years democracy 42 inside EU, stability,
    If Greece was outside EU,
    today we will be again under USA or Russian agents to rule upon us, or to divide us, like 1945 or 1967 or before 2 years, the betray of Makedonia,
    we never had before stable constitution that long


    Yet the Modern EU is not the EU I dreamed as kid at 1980's
    needs to back to its roots,
    and kick imported economical ideas,

    offcourse the problem in modern Greece is not inside or outside EU,
    but others,
    we need the EU of Kaynes, and not the EU of Chicago.

    (and partially get rid of Athenocentric state, and multinational corporations who feed it)

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    The EU did not come to the aid of Greece or Italy during the refugee crisis and they did not come to our aid during the coronavirus crisis. They have been useless.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    The EU did not come to the aid of Greece or Italy during the refugee crisis and they did not come to our aid during the coronavirus crisis. They have been useless.
    The EU came at refuggee crisis with 2 faces,

    1. the treaty with Turkey,
    all immigrants that pass fro islands, are confirmed by EU FRONTEX and if not asylum given back to Turkey, (more than 25 000 at 2018, more than 50 000 total)
    this was not for Evros river, but before a month police from EU countries came and help, and share technology,
    6 billions E came to Greece from EU for the refugee crisis
    4 Billion $ from UN

    2, the other face is the NGO,
    this is rather a major global political problem, since some help refugees and some push human smuggling.

    As for crisis of coronavirus, Greece never had such, did not pay blood tribute so much,
    yet the economy is still something that will be discussed,
    WE HAD worst times by Goldamn Sachs at 2008.

    Italy is an independent country inside a Union of volunteers,
    EU is more Democraric USA,
    In EU you can enter and if you don't like you leave,
    AT USA you can not leave.

    now about coronavirus help for Italy, and who should help and why,
    soon the time will be mature to discuss,
    and Italians have the choice of desicion to continue inside or exit EU.
    nobody force them to stay, or to exit as in other Unions,

    the demand of 11 or the corona bond has to do with Eurozone and future of E, not of union or countries.
    it is rather a subject of ECB with EU countries.

    Greece will suffer after the summer of 2020 and only economically, until end of 2021
    due to 35% of total income of country is after tourism.
    that is why they restarted all mlitary factories, aven abandoned private ones.
    to produce things that might be in need and not imported.
    Euroepan North will suffer after summer of 2021 from hunger not economy
    and European East will be lost in political unstability,

    as I told the longest lived democracy, from 1821, in Greece is now, 46 years free and stable state, 42 years inside EU,

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    The EU did not come to the aid of Greece or Italy during the refugee crisis and they did not come to our aid during the coronavirus crisis. They have been useless.

    They not only have no common, European family of nations feeling, call it what you will. They're also stupid. It doesn't seem to have occurred to them that they will make fewer profits too if Southern Europe doesn't have the money to buy their goods.

    It's just "small" thinking with a very small "s". Prosperity for another country doesn't diminish your prosperity if it is set up correctly. It means rising prosperity for everyone.

    Some people aren't as smart as they think they are applies not only to most people but to most nations.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    They not only have no common, European family of nations feeling, call it what you will. They're also stupid. It doesn't seem to have occurred to them that they will make fewer profits too if Southern Europe doesn't have the money to buy their goods.

    It's just "small" thinking with a very small "s". Prosperity for another country doesn't diminish your prosperity if it is set up correctly. It means rising prosperity for everyone.

    Some people aren't as smart as they think they are applies not only to most people but to most nations.
    Isn't the same at USA?
    how much per hour takes a worker in NY, in Alaska, or in California?
    how much prosper is Centucky or Texas or etc,

    YET they can not leave Union,

    But Italy has,

    So who is more fair and more democratic, EU or USA?

    Besides we have seen the prosperity promised by Russians, and by Americans here in Greece,
    and we pay by blood, money and way of life, and land
    civil wars,
    dictators,
    Goldman sachs loans,
    etc etc etc

    On the other hand, I just wonder,
    Why all European leaders ask loans from ECB and not from Goldmans Sachs anymore,
    I am sure the US Goldmans Sachs will be willing to give.

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    You're talking about the treaty that just went into effect. Too late! They did not help with ships to blockade Chios and other islands. They helped with money after the fact. The refugees don't want to stay in Greece, they want to go to Northern Europe. Northern Europe does not want them anymore. They are in limbo so we have to house and feed them. If they were tough to begin with we would not have the problem.

    All they had to do was to create safe zones in Syria and don't let them reach Turkey. But no, that would require troops or funding the UN.

    Ursula von Leyden, president of the EC apologized to Italy for basically doing nothing to help. A little too late don't you think?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    You're talking about the treaty that just went into effect. Too late! They did not help with ships to blockade Chios and other islands. They helped with money after the fact. The refugees don't want to stay in Greece, they want to go to Northern Europe. Northern Europe does not want them anymore. They are in limbo so we have to house and feed them. If they were tough to begin with we would not have the problem.

    All they had to do was to create safe zones in Syria and don't let them reach Turkey. But no, that would require troops or funding the UN.

    Ursula von Leyden, president of the EC apologized to Italy for basically doing nothing to help. A little too late don't you think?
    Snake the treaty is after 2016

    Turkey took about 10b E Greece took 6b E from EU till end of 2021.
    according the treaty, all Robinson Crusoes that came to islands if not given asylum will be returned to Turkey,
    Frontex was here, as also rest EU with armed ships,
    Frontex spend milions to organise and buy equipment for 'reckoning and identify'
    France Italy Deutsch and USA

    But the treaty was not about Evros,
    that is why Erdogan targeted Evros before 2 months,
    For he forced to take back from 2017 till now 50 000 back
    THAT is a bad reputation to human smugglers.
    from the profit of the last live many 'organisation' and founded many terroristic and paramilitary ones

  21. #21
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    I think I am clear, and fair

    If Conte and Italy want to leave EU,
    they have this ability,

    If Mitsotakis and Greeks want to leave EU
    they have this ability

    if XYZ leader and his people want to leave EU
    they have the ability.

    no one is forced to stay
    that is democracy and free will of nations

    on the other hand, some states are doomed to stay in a Union for .....
    Free will?



    And what About USA?

    Why USA President says 'LIBERATE MINNESOTA',
    and if this states disagree, are they allowed to leave Union?
    what democracy then?

  22. #22
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    I found a petition on Change.org that proposes this:

    1. Well-funded public health systems throughout the world with universal access to quality health care, including distance health services (telehealth);

    2. Disaster preparedness that at a minimum guarantees the continuity of food, water, energy and medical supplies in pandemics, climate change-related impacts and other disasters;

    3. A new economy that shifts away from continuous growth and consumerism towards the well-being and resilience of people and environmental protection – and the same goes for trade and investment;

    4. A guaranteed income for all to cover the basic needs and well-being of each and every individual in their country or region;

    5. Increased work from home (teleworking), virtual meetings (teleconferencing) and distance education (telelearning) to improve the quality of life and minimise the cost and environmental impact of transport;

    6. Reliable, safe and privacy-respecting access to the internet and social media, which should be treated as global (cyber) commons;

    7. Advanced technological and social innovation and broad sharing of their benefits – in medicine, energy generation, the circular economy, travel, learning, space exploration – for a better life for all;

    8. A new, unarmed, civil protection role for the military in the management of logistics and medical support in case of natural and human-made disasters;

    9. Reinforced democratic checks and balances to ensure the protection of individual and collective rights even while responding to emergencies;

    10. Strong international cooperation and support for institutions that promote human resilience and well-being, building on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

    These are sensible proposals in my opinion.
    My book selection---Follow me on Facebook and Twitter --- My profile on Academia.edu and on ResearchGate ----Check Wa-pedia's Japan Guide
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    "What is the use of living, if it be not to strive for noble causes and to make this muddled world a better place for those who will live in it after we are gone?", Winston Churchill.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    What thread? Uncovered by whom?

    Αληθώς Ανέστη!
    Well my apologies, we lost the momentum, I thought that you had probably noticed.
    Anyway, nothing to bother, nothing personal for you...
    A comment of mine, up on a quite funny theory as posted recently to a thread...
    Nothing to rudiculize it any further.


    But...
    I refreshed my liver from the laughs (coronavirus side effects)
    Flat earth, Australia dont exist, Darth Weder was saracatsan... that kind of scale "yupie yupie yiao" things.
    lol

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    I don't think anyone knows, just like no one anticipated what the post-war world would look like after the Germans and Japanese were defeated.

    The one thing you can count on about human societies imo is that hindsight is 20/20, but human beings are not always that easy to predict looking forward. Unintended consequences rule.

    Thanks for that, you deploy sufficient and reasonable your main idea. Your main idea here is a mature product of -your-true living experiance
    and not an adopted theory. You placed it modestly and in order. You rightfully and semiotical propriate, focus your paradeigm to the events of the past
    world war. I think is quite succesful, since we both -as generations- we connect in away to our parents experiances... etc.
    No one can disagree here -(you are the moderator, lol )


    Yes it is absolut true that is 50/50 when we have total ignorance up on the every occasional or certain issue or having no control to the developed events
    around us. But the things changes dramatically for example:
    When we see a small light to end of a long tunnel... Actually the 1% is the game changer the rest will follow with cataclysmic speed (the "good"
    or the "bad" ones) we could say that allthough in a deep theoretical and timeless level, all the future events are 50/50...but all that in a theory.
    The fact is that evolution dont move on with 50/50 balances, either dont prefer -occasionally- the safe predictions, and that self-proves and sustains
    the idiomatic unstable balance of - Life events.


    There is certain things and things not so, example: I dont know if I survive till tomorow, but that dont means the sun will not rise.
    That said, I mean that not only the 50/50 exists as possibillity but as well exists the 100% to some case incidents.
    All that at a pragmatic and as well theoritical perceptions.
    So, if we can agree with the above we can step a little forward.


    We apply the above analogies now to the question for example not to: "how the world will be", but instead to the question:
    "How the world is" (today, in present) and make it more easier... it is like saying "How Yetos is" or "who is Angela".
    Angela is not 50% Italian and 50% American. Because I read you a lot, I would believe (say it guess or whatever), that -at least-you are:


    pam/ para pam pam/pam/ para pam pam/ pam (drummers tambourine)


    At least 51% Italian. ( the first raw sketch approach, the "juvenilla", if you like)
    How wrong I am?

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    ...I was sceptical about the figure of the article...
    I worry mostly for how people question things and less for their probably answers. (experts or not)
    Numbers are more abstract than words can be.
    Words are more abstract than symbols decides.
    A picture is a thousand words, but a word is million images...


    But this is absolut nothing. I cannot digest that...

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