Ygorcs: In theory, wouldn't everything in Italy already be "Eastern Med" shifted before the MLBA given the Neolithic migration from Anatolia had already reached Italy by 6,500 BC as this recent paper with the slide show documented. The only major sources of ancestry in Italy before Steppe would be WHG+EEF+ some early Iran_Neolithic or CHG type ancestry. Antonio et al 2019 Admixture graph is pretty clear on that. Correct? Or am I misinterpreting Antonio et al 2019 Figure 2 admixture graph.
Just as an FYI, the reason I ran the model fit using Iron Age Roman samples only is because of the earlier discussion about the Imperial Romans and drawing inferences from them. So using the Iron Age Romans, I can still get good fits as documented in my post 137 and 274. So how people want to model those Samples using G25 is not pertinent to me personally. The fact is that there were 3 of the Iron Age Romans that were Southern Shifted. For me that is all I care about. That alone is enough to piss off the usual suspects.
Next, since everyone is playing around with models, I wanted to see what my fit looks like using only R1, who is the oldest Iron_Age Republican Roman/Late Bronze sample and I think the least Southern Shifted, and all the Chalcolithic, Neolithic and Mesolithic samples, I can get distances from 10% to 18%, depending obviously on the Calculator and source sample data.
Dodecad K7 using R1 plus all Roman samples from Chalcolithic to Mesolithic.
Target: PalermoTrapani
Distance: 13.1542% / 13.15415094 | ADC: 0.25x
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53.2 | R18_Neolithic_Ripabianca_di_Monterado |
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46.8 | R1_Iron_Age_Protovillanovan_Martinsicuro |
Dodecad K7 using same sample as above, but excluding R1
Target: PalermoTrapani
Distance: 17.3235% / 17.32345868 | ADC: 0.25x
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89.4 | R18_Neolithic_Ripabianca_di_Monterado |
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10.6 | R15_Mesolithic_Grotta_Continenza |
Eurogenes K13 same sample as K7 with Iron Age R1
Target: PalermoTrapani
Distance: 10.4111% / 10.41110892 | ADC: 0.25x
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68.8 | R1_Abruzzo_Teramo_Late_Bronze_Age_Italy |
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31.2 | R9_Abruzzo_Neolithic_Farmer_Italy |
Eurogenes K13, same sample as K7 model 2, no R1 in Source data
Target: PalermoTrapani
Distance: 17.4502% / 17.45015358 | ADC: 0.25x
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73.0 | R9_Abruzzo_Neolithic_Farmer_Italy |
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27.0 | R11_Abruzzo_Mesolithic_Hunter-Gatherer_Italy |
Dodecad 12B, sample same as Dodecad K7 model1 and Eurogenes K13 model 1 (included R1)
Target: PalermoTrapani
Distance: 13.0751% / 13.07509661 | ADC: 0.25x
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66.4 | R1_Iron_Age_Protovillanovan_Martinsicuro |
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33.6 | R9_Neolithic_Grotta_Continenza |
Dodecad 12B, no R1 in Source data.
Target: PalermoTrapani
Distance: 18.9304% / 18.93041390 | ADC: 0.25x
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79.4 | R9_Neolithic_Grotta_Continenza |
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20.6 | R15_Mesolithic_Grotta_Continenza |
Now I know those are not great for Modern Populations, but we are using samples from a long, long, long time ago. However, it is not like you have to sing David Bowie's Space Odyssey line "Ground Control to Major Tom" to find me. So using an "Independent" criteria to evaluate model fit distances from samples that old, I will use MyTrueAncestry's definitions, those are not mine, its MTA's. I quote
"Genetic distance measures how close you are to a given sample.
10 means this is your ancient ancestry
20 means this is part of your ancestral link
30 means possibly related to your ancestry"
So what ever was in Rome before the MLBA, according to MTA is is part of my ancestral link. Whatever happened in the MLBA happened, doesn't change that I have an ancestral link with Neolithic Rome up to the period of R1, which is around 950BC, some calculators call R1 Late Bronze age, but I am not going to split hairs. As for Sicily and Rome, yes, starting in Sicily by around 900 BC, the Phoenicians settled some cities on the NW coast and founded and built ports, I know the history, obviously sometime during the Imperial period, people from the Levant, Syrians, Jews moved into Rome and as far South as Sicily, mostly on the East Coast if Saint Paul's Letters are accurate as to where the major Jewish Settlements were.