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Thread: Low fertility, high migration rate - what will Europe look like in the future?

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    Satyavrata Maciamo's Avatar
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    Post Low fertility, high migration rate - what will Europe look like in the future?

    I was having a look at the population projections for 2100 in Our World in Data and thought it would be easier to visualise with a map. Countries in green will see their population grow, while those in orange and red will contract. Of course such projections are very difficult to make and other sources give figures that are sometimes quite different (e.g. France and the UK growing by 30% instead of 1% and 15% here). But overall the expected direction of things is that southern, central and eastern Europe will see their populations shrink drastically and only a few of the wealthier countries will grow thanks to immigration from the rest of Europe and from outside Europe.




    The fertility rates confirm that not a single country could grow due people having more children. Any growth is linked to immigration. But countries like Romania, which is expected to lose a third of its population by 2100, are not afflicted by a total fertility breakdown. On the contrary, Romania is one of the few EU countries with a fertility rate of 2 children per woman. So the demographic decline will be caused by emigration, especially to western and northern Europe.




    The next map shows that richer countries already have a higher percentage of foreign-born residents, Switzerland and Luxembourg on top with over 30% of foreigners.




    The situation in the USA is similar to that of Scandinavia. The population is going to grow by about 35% by 2100, although the fertility rate is slightly under the replacement level, so that most of the growth will be caused by immigration.
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    Advisor Angela's Avatar
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    Of course, the more immigration, the more, eventually, the "ethnicity" of the population will change.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    Of course, the more immigration, the more, eventually, the "ethnicity" of the population will change.

    it wouldn't happen in eastern europe though
    the r1a big wall ( and i am not saying it for positive or negetive just decribe the reality)


    p.s
    even in prague ( central europe geographicly) when i was younger i travell with my brother
    i saw only 2 muslims in all the trip
    it isn't marsile thats for sure .......
    phenotype:
    gracile- med

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    Advisor Angela's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kingjohn View Post
    it wouldn't happen in eastern europe though
    the r1a big wall ( and i am not saying it for positive or negetive just decribe the reality)


    p.s
    even in prague ( central europe geographicly) when i was younger i travell with my brother
    i saw only 2 muslims in all the trip
    it isn't marsile thats for sure .......
    That's exactly my point. The lower the migration rates, the less change in the original population. The eastern European countries, like Poland, I believe, only agreed to take Christian Near Easterners. Not that it mattered; the ones who went all left. That tells you the kind of welcome they received.

    The further east you go in Europe the more xenophobia.

    I do understand the Italian numbers even with regard to other EU migrants. When their own unemployment numbers are so high, why would they want people from other European countries coming in to take their jobs? Or, the migrants are rich Brits and Germans who drive real estate prices even in the country sky high. I can say from personal experience that Tuscans don't like Tuscany being called Chiantishire. The Brits are a little more welcome because a lot of them are Italophiles who know the language and sometimes more of the history than the locals. Even with the famous one Euro for a house program in some tiny borghi, you have to contract not only to fix up the property to code, but to live there most of the year and to learn the language and local culture. They don't want to Balkanize Italy or have these villages become second home vacation houses; they want to revitalize their communities. I've actually thought about doing it.

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    My wife and I have retired and are downsizing. We will have about $300k to spend on a second home most probably for a house in a Greek island. The only problem with that plan is the availability of emergency medicine. That's the same problem that living in the small villages in Italy will present.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    My wife and I have retired and are downsizing. We will have about $300k to spend on a second home most probably for a house in a Greek island. The only problem with that plan is the availability of emergency medicine. That's the same problem that living in the small villages in Italy will present.
    The type of health care that my family and I will have and what are the economic conditions so that I can afford a good health plan for me and for them are, IMO, the most important variables for me to take up residence anywhere place in the world that is not be my City. I can only be happy with healthy and with the certainty that my family and I will always have the best in this area, when necessary.

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    On one hand you have the media telling Europeans not to have kids, on the other hand it is telling Europeans to let in immigrants because we don't have enough kids.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BohemianLegionar View Post
    On one hand you have the media telling Europeans not to have kids, on the other hand it is telling Europeans to let in immigrants because we don't have enough kids.
    is that so? where i live the politics are constantly trying to create new reasons to have kids and media is rather supporting that. it's just that having kids takes a lot of time money and energy, and many people do not want to sacrifice that or have only 1-2 children at max..

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