I crossread this little text and thought in the Cunliffe/Koch theory which I don’t agree to.
This last paper is a bit different and not without interest.
It says : « Linderholm et al. 2020 showed that the R1b-L52>P311 subgroup (leading to U106 and P312) dwelled in Southeast Poland, on the present Ukrainian border in the late Corded Ware culture times while most other CWC samples from Germany through Northern Poland to Estonia belonged to Hg R1a-M417. »
I think a single site of this sort doesn’ t prove straight on Poland is the path for these subclades. I think rather in Hungary and Danube ? Before more proofs. But nothing (only archeology?) excludes a south Poland > Moravia > South Central Europe route...
Again : « These SE Polish CWC samples also exhibit higher genetic affinity to later Bell Beaker culture samples than to CWC remains from other regions. The only CWC group related to this group is the Single Grave Culture in the Lower Rhine-Lower Elbe area. »
This discrepancy compared to other CWC groups, with a rather BB set of Y-haplo’s would call for prudence concerning auDNA (BB’s shifted to CWC’s ?). But it depends on what we think about the formations of BB’s. The big pitfall is to consider BB’s as an homogenous brutal allover phenomenon. It isn’t. If we disconnect the first BB potters (I’m tempted to see in SW Iberia, at some stage) of the later extension allover western Europe, we can imagine the late BB’s were in fact « seizers » of BB network and that they extended it later.
Then : « Therefore it is a safe conclusion that P311 ancestors migrated from the PIE homeland through Southeast Poland, north of the Carpathians towards the North Sea coast between 2900 and 2500 BC. This route is autosomally supported by Olalde et al. 2017, where they concluded that Bell Beaker samples outside Iberia (exclusively R1b-P312) are an admixture of Yamnaya-related ancestry with North European Neolithic groups (Globular Amphora and TRB), without any ancestry from Iberian Neolithic. We can conclude that the Corded Ware (CWC) horizon was the source of “autosomally unadmixed late PIE”people, being source of the proto-Italo-Celtic SingleGravepart.»
I wasn’t aware of so a proximity between the neolithic elements in BB’s auDNA and GAC + TRB at the exclusion of Iberian neolithic auDNA. ATW the exogamic system of BB’s left them very heterogenous except some N-W clans, and I doubt their neolithic auDNA would have been everywhere so poor in Iberic neolithic elements. But some amateurs simulations showed that BB’s had often some ‘baltic’ hints so a northern path… ? That said, concerning the possible respective pathes for Y-R1b-L51 and L2103>2105 &..., the distribution of downstream L11 in North can push us to accept a northern route for L51, as proposed, spite my first thought was it passed through south the Carpathians before to fork around Hungary, some of them going northwards through Moravia to Poland, East germay and Baltic shores, for the most ancestors of R1b-U106. The Lower Rhine region could have received Y-R1b subclades groups from East as well as from South. So I stay doubtful here. Some L51>L11 (or L151) could ave passed through North (then for me: U106 ancestors), others through South (P312 ancestors). Their so called GAC/TRB neolithic part could have been taken more East, before this supposed branching (somewhere in Ukraina/Belarus?)
… [FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Bearing in mind the above, the autosomal genetic results support the Y-DNA branch[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]ing observation that [/FONT][FONT=ff2, Times New Roman, Times, serif]L11/P311 is the most diverse in the Lower Rhine-Lower Elbe area where U106 and P312 as well as rare brothers S1194 and A8053 could have lived next to each other around 2800-2500 BC before the P312 branch started the Beaker expansion[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif].It is widely known that the paternally the most “Celtic” subgroup, R1b-P312 is most fre[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]quent in the Celtic parts of British Isles and in Iberia (above 50%), signi[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]fi[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]cant in France[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif](40-50%) and has decreasing frequency towards Central and Eastern Europe. R1b-L21, the [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]typical P312 subgroup in British Isles was found among the earliest Bell Beaker settlers. There [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]is no reasonable scenario to expect a Carpathian Basin–North Alps or Carpathian Basin–Italy [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]migration route for proto-Celtic based on the paternal frequencies of R1b-P312. This is also underlined by autosomal DNA evidence, as shown by early British Bell Beaker samples, as [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]their genetic distance is measured from modern populations.[/FONT]
[FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]We need caution. I can accept the supposed « nordish » BB’s auDNA but it could have been catched or kept from further East and from earlier, it doesn’t exclude a more southern route (Danube). The idea of a bunch of every downstream [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]of[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif] R1b-L11 in a relatively small place (Lower Rhine area) [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]after a tour in northern Europe among territories under recent Y-R1a CWC control[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif], and their later expansion in good order, well separated [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]as a whole[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif] (L21, DF27, U15[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]2[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif], U[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]106) is not impossible but seems weird to me. [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I suppose the variety they are talking about is based on today pop’s, not ancient ones, and it seems to me more a sink effect (later historical events, with BB’s going until Scandinavia and Germanics going West and South, [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]and maybe Belgae of some sort coming from Eastern Bavaria/Bohemia[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]). [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]ATW we need more ancient DNA to trace the way they took. [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]So l[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]i[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]nguistically speaking I don’t see why a southern (north-alpine) route would be forbidden to proto-Celtic and proto-Italic speakers, even if I [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]think they formed relatively late, in situ in [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]central-[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]western Europe on a network of close west-IE dialects [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]of late BB’s origin[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]. [/FONT]
[FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]R1b-L21, the typical P312 subgroup in British Isles was found among the earliest Bell Beaker settlers. There is no reasonable scenario to expect a Carpathian Basin–North Alps or Carpathian Basin–Italy migration route for proto-Celtic based on the paternal frequencies of R1b-P312.[/FONT]
[FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Indeed if we consider Celtic and Italic are descendants of BB’s dialects evolved later, effectively we do’nt need later arrived tribes from East ; but it doesn’t exclude the ancestors of these BB’s (grand fathers of both) came through there. I think (without true proof it’s true) the Celts as a linguistic group are older than IA. I place them in BA, after the BB’s CA and born from a part of these last ones. I consider that P- Celtic and P-Italic groups of same basic origin than Bronze ones came with IA, from more eastern positions for both*. The fact British BB’s are almost all of them L21 and that their ancestors came rather from today Netherlands exclude that the cradle of P312 and all other downstream SNP’s could have been there.[/FONT]
[FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]*: Since long ago I bet that the Qw- to P- phenomenon is not born independently in the diverse languages of Europe : How ? Influence of bilingual elites (Urnfields?) ? Common important substratum ? The place of propagation could be around northern Balkans south Hungary ??? The principal difference between Qw- Celtic and Qw- Italic is thatthe first was largely spread westwards when the second stayed a long time somewhere I place rather between N-E Italy, S-Austria and N-Croatia (Pannonia), roughly said.[/FONT]
…[FONT=ff2, Times New Roman, Times, serif]British Isles Bell Beaker samples cluster with modern Northern European populations, whether today Germanic or Celtic speaking[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]. It is also notable that most distances are below 10.00 that means, [/FONT][FONT=ff2, Times New Roman, Times, serif]these modern populations are direct autosomal descendants of Bell Beaker groups, without any admixture break, testifying the North to South and West to East direction of gene [/FONT][FONT=ff2, Times New Roman, Times, serif]fl[/FONT][FONT=ff2, Times New Roman, Times, serif]ows in the Bronze and Iron Ages.[/FONT]
[FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I find these statements a bit simplistic. I’m sure the today population of the Isles is not directly or totally issued from the BB’s. It has been increased by new colonisations at celtic times [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]without to speak of Anglo-Saxons[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif], [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Celts were [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]newcomers with a less steppic input [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif](the [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Hallstatt & [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]La Tène ones at least) [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]but stayed close to BB’s people [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]so they leave this impression of unbroken continuity; but anthropologic typology submitted to finer and faster evolutions than auDNA shows there has not be a so evident continuity[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]. The BB’s demic expansion, for me, has proceeded from Central Germany on every direction, not truly from West [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]only[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]. [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]For the Isles the most passed through Lower Rhine, OK. [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]BB’s could [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]IMO [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]have spread close IE dialects which evolved later by [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]partial [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]sedentism (without exclude [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]diverse[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif] exchanges). Proto-Celtic could have covered a huge territory or [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]dominated [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]this territory as kind of lingua franca (At[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]l[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]antic Bronze?). Proto-Italic was more eastern. The specifically Italic [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]dialects seems to me evolved spoken by tribes which had contacts with proto-Germanics if I rely on some linguistic conclusions. The phonetics of Italic(s) seems to show ties with both Hellenic and Rhaetic-Etruscan but here it’s only [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]personal [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]guess, [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]and the Etruscan traits could have been taken in [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]northern [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Italy, not during proto-Italic phase [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]more around Austria/Croatia ? [/FONT]
[FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]ATW concerning[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif] [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Y-haplos, I suppose Y-R1b-U152 [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]e[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]x[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]pansion [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]is more closely tied to Hallstatt [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]&[/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif] La Tène periods and in a more eastern sphere. Its strong presence among Qw-Italics could be due not so specifically to Italics but [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]also [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]to Italicised tribes ([/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]close to [/FONT][FONT=ff4, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Ligurians ?).[/FONT]