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Thread: Ancient DNA of Roman Danubian Frontier and Slavic Migrations (Olalde 2021)

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    Quote Originally Posted by torzio View Post
    Until someone states what the Dacians spoke before taking up a latin based language then we will never know ......................but since the Bastarnae are based on a Germanic-Celtic mix with later sarmatian added , my guess is Dacian language would be a branch of celtic-thracian

    Goths and Bastarnae began in the same area of modern poland ....that is the goths ( gottones ) on both sides of the vistula river delta area where it meets the baltic sea and south of them on the west side of the Vistula river began the Bastarnae ( before they moved )

    I supose a good start for the idea of Slavs are these 2 bellow links

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antes_(people)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carantania

    Carantania in some Aromani villages means also Black mountain Montenegro Crnagora


    the Goths

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ostrogoths

    interesting

    the last gothic speaker found in Crimea before a century about



    Dacian language

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacian_language

    my prsonal believe is Dacian is the basic language upon which later Albanian sprunk nad grow
    ΟΘΕΝ ΑΙΔΩΣ OY EINAI
    ΑΤΗ ΛΑΜΒΑΝΕΙΝ ΑΥΤΟΙΣ
    ΥΒΡΙΣ ΓΕΝΝΑΤΑΙ
    ΝΕΜΕΣΙΣ ΚΑΙ ΤΙΣΗ ΑΚΟΛΟΥΘΟΥΣΙ ΔΕ

    When there is no shame
    Divine blindness conquers them
    Hybris (abuse, opprombium) is born
    Nemesis and punishment follows.

    Εχε υπομονη Ηρωα
    Η τιμωρια δεν αργει.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovialis View Post
    My hypothesis? I quoted the paper which you obviously didn't read; mainland Greece is 30% Northeastern European ancestry. Also, for all of the numerous samples, don't hold your breath, because it may never happen. I didn't write the paper, so if you have an issue, take it up with them. Also some of you people better start acting like normal human beings, or I going to throw you out of here.
    Ive always quoted you when I asked you about something. I didnt quote you, therefore it wasnt directed to you.

    Hypotheses is plural for hypothesis, so I was referring to everyone in this topic confidently supporting the idea that 30% is exclusively Slavic.

    I definitely read the paper and Im discussing the possible weaknesses of the paper, not the obvious strengths and the contributions it made for us to better understand what happened through the centuries.

    Whats with the subnormal human beings and is that threat directed at me?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dushman View Post
    I�ve always quoted you when I asked you about something. I didn�t quote you, therefore it wasn�t directed to you.

    Hypotheses is plural for hypothesis, so I was referring to everyone in this topic confidently supporting the idea that 30% is exclusively Slavic.

    I definitely read the paper and I�m discussing the possible weaknesses of the paper, not the obvious strengths and the contributions it made for us to better understand what happened through the centuries.

    What�s with the subnormal human beings and is that threat directed at me?
    Sorry, I thought you were referring to me. When I seems terms like "putting ideas in the grave", it start to manifest into a more hostile atmosphere. Because it starts to sound like vailed-threats.


    Also, it was just a general statement, because it seems this thread is becoming less civilized; animal-like. Discussing the weakness and strengths in the paper is fine, that is what this forum is for.

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    Quote Originally Posted by torzio View Post
    Until someone states what the Dacians spoke before taking up a latin based language then we will never know ......................but since the Bastarnae are based on a Germanic-Celtic mix with later sarmatian added , my guess is Dacian language would be a branch of celtic-thracian

    Goths and Bastarnae began in the same area of modern poland ....that is the goths ( gottones ) on both sides of the vistula river delta area where it meets the baltic sea and south of them on the west side of the Vistula river began the Bastarnae ( before they moved )
    Dacians were Daco-Thracian people, related especially to the Getae and Moesians, especially with Cimmerian, Scythian and later Celtic influences. But they were still Dacians, one of the main groups from the Daco-Thracian sphere, descendents from the Channelled Ware people. I guess the Dacians would have been paternally mixed, as suggested by the influences they had, but the primary haplogroup should still be E-V13, secondarily Scythian-Cimmerian R1a/R1b, and in some regions in particular, Celtic haplotypes, which were themselves in the East quite mixed and not supposed to have been exclusively R1b at all.

    The Bastarnae seem to have been a fairly mixed people, more so than the Dacians. But Dacians lived in the regions for long, like the Costobocci, even after Roman conquest of the main territory of the Dacians:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costoboci

    Unfortunately they did cremate fairly late, but I guess both Germanics and Slavs might have picked some E-V13 up from them and some local elements might have survived in the Carpathian zone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovialis View Post
    Sorry, I thought you were referring to me. When I seems terms like "putting ideas in the grave", it start to manifest into a more hostile atmosphere. Because it starts to sound like vailed-threats.


    Also, it was just a general statement, because it seems this thread is becoming less civilized; animal-like. Discussing the weakness and strengths in the paper is fine, that is what this forum is for.
    I assure you I have 0 interest to be hostile towards anyone here or in the internet in general. Im truly interested and curious to know more about genetics and as a beginner I realized I can be easily confused by contradicting information.

    Ive been misguided so many times by the things I read that now I want to be as close to 99% sure as possible before accepting an hypothesis. As a result I might come across as hostile because I dont want to fall again on the trap of E-V13 is Egyptian, I2a-Din is Illyrian and Cucuteni, J2 is Arab/Anatolian, Early Farmers were not White, R1a is Asian/Mongoloid etc.

    Until you and some others pointed out a few days ago that PCAs do not tell 100% of the story, I was taking the distances in the maps for granted (and Im sure I still do somehow).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dushman View Post
    I assure you I have 0 interest to be hostile towards anyone here or in the internet in general. I�m truly interested and curious to know more about genetics and as a beginner I realized I can be easily confused by contradicting information.
    I�ve been misguided so many times by the things I read that now I want to be as close to 99% sure as possible before accepting an hypothesis. As a result I might come across as hostile because I don�t want to fall again on the trap of �E-V13 is Egyptian, I2a-Din is Illyrian and Cucuteni, J2 is Arab/Anatolian, Early Farmers were not White, R1a is Asian/Mongoloid� etc.
    Until you and some others pointed out a few days ago that PCAs do not tell 100% of the story, I was taking the distances in the maps for granted (and I�m sure I still do somehow).
    I have never held any of those views personally, so you don't have to worry about that coming from me. I more recently speculated that the ancestors of Albanians may have been "south Italian-like" by the virtue of the fact that people like the Myceneans were close to that. This paper seems to validate my speculation with the large amount of Aegean IA, (similar to BA) as a major component of Balkans IA.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dushman View Post
    I assure you I have 0 interest to be hostile towards anyone here or in the internet in general. I�m truly interested and curious to know more about genetics and as a beginner I realized I can be easily confused by contradicting information.

    I�ve been misguided so many times by the things I read that now I want to be as close to 99% sure as possible before accepting an hypothesis. As a result I might come across as hostile because I don�t want to fall again on the trap of �E-V13 is Egyptian, I2a-Din is Illyrian and Cucuteni, J2 is Arab/Anatolian, Early Farmers were not White, R1a is Asian/Mongoloid� etc.

    Until you and some others pointed out a few days ago that PCAs do not tell 100% of the story, I was taking the distances in the maps for granted (and I�m sure I still do somehow).
    The I2a-Dinaric theory can be put in the trash receptacle, as evidence is strong that this haplogroup was brought to the Balkans pretty much exclusively by Slavs. It’s not indigenous to the Balkans.

    As a layperson who never toyed with amateur gene modelers like G25, I too have to be careful when seeing them. For example, there is an Anthro-type model of modern mainland Greeks that shows them to be more Anatolia MLBA-like than Empuries and Mycenaeans. What is this based on, the rumor that some classical Greeks are Cyprus/Anatolia-like? That leaves out a lot of other Greeks, and is not based on any published data. It looks like an assumption. Plus, the Peloponnese study shows those Greeks do not have much Asia Minor admixture. That was part of the theory that Asia Minor people were brought to replace the Greeks who disappeared after the Slavic invasions.
    Last edited by Ralphie Boy; 23-09-21 at 00:23.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie Boy View Post
    The I2a-Dinaric theory can be put in the trash receptacle, as evidence is strong that this haplogroup was brought to the Balkans pretty much exclusively by Slavs. It’s not indigenous to the Balkans.

    As a layperson who never toyed with amateur gene modelers like G25, I too have to be careful when seeing them. For example, there is an Anthro-type model of modern mainland Greeks that shows them to be more Anatolia MLBA-like than Empuries and Mycenene. What is this based on, the rumor that some classical Greeks are Cyprus/Anatolia-like? That leaves out a lot of other Greeks, and is not based on any published data. It looks like an assumption. Plus, the Peloponnese study shows those Greeks do not have much Asia Minor admixture. That was part of the theory that Asia Minor people were brought to replace the Greeks who disappeared after the Slavic invasions.
    Using Apulians as a source pre-Slavic era (400-500AD) northern Greeks, which can be accurate you get 35% Slovene, slightly above 5% Armenian-like ancestry and +55% Apulian.

    Target: Greek_Macedonia
    Distance: 1.2096% / 0.01209610
    58.6 Italian_Apulia
    35.2 Slovenian
    6.2 Armenian


    Target: Bulgarian
    Distance: 1.9314% / 0.01931411
    54.2 CZE_Early_Slav
    32.0 BGR_IA
    13.8 Armenian

    Target: Greek_Macedonia
    Distance: 2.0262% / 0.02026183
    43.8 BGR_IA
    35.8 CZE_Early_Slav
    20.4 Armenian

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie Boy View Post
    The I2a-Dinaric theory can be put in the trash receptacle, as evidence is strong that this haplogroup was brought to the Balkans pretty much exclusively by Slavs. It’s not indigenous to the Balkans.

    As a layperson who never toyed with amateur gene modelers like G25, I too have to be careful when seeing them. For example, there is an Anthro-type model of modern mainland Greeks that shows them to be more Anatolia MLBA-like than Empuries and Mycenaeans. What is this based on, the rumor that some classical Greeks are Cyprus/Anatolia-like? That leaves out a lot of other Greeks, and is not based on any published data. It looks like an assumption. Plus, the Peloponnese study shows those Greeks do not have much Asia Minor admixture. That was part of the theory that Asia Minor people were brought to replace the Greeks who disappeared after the Slavic invasions.
    We are not talking about amateur calculator though, it is the modeling from the Reich Lab study; specifically Balkan_IA + Kuline Cluster, which is what is used to describe modern Balkan genetics.


    Greeks did not disappear, and were not replaced by Asia Minor people or anyone else. This never happened, according to the study, and I am happy to see this viscous canard be repudiated. Nevertheless, I am sure the lie will still live on, in the realm of stupidity. This study demonstrates that Greeks continued to exist, after the cosmopolitan elements went extinct. It was only until the middle ages, that only about 30% of their autosomal DNA was augmented by Northeastern European ancestry in the mainland, and 20-7% in the Islands. Frankly, I am surprised by 20% in the Greek islands, but I guess it must have affected some Islands more than others. This is genetic continuity in my book, nonetheless; even for as much as 30%.


    Besides, it is not like being admixed with something radically different like Eskimos, or Aboriginal Australians; Northeastern Europeans, and Ancient Greeks do share overlapping source populations, albeit at different rates.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovialis View Post
    We are not talking about amateur calculator though, it is the modeling from the Reich Lab study; specifically Balkan_IA + Kuline Cluster, which is what is used to describe modern Balkan genetics.

    This study demonstrates that Greeks continued to exist, after the cosmopolitan elements went extinct. It was only until the middle ages, that only about 30% of their autosomal DNA was augmented by Northeastern European ancestry in the mainland, and 20-7% in the Islands. Frankly, I am surprised by 20% in the Greek islands, but I guess it must have affected some Islands more than others. This is genetic continuity in my book, nonetheless; even for as much as 30%.
    1) Can you please clarify something for me? Reich Lab used the Kuline Cluster as a proxy for the Northeastern Europeans/Slavs?

    If thats the case then its a problematic model because the Kuline samples were over 50% Balkan IA, thus leaving around 20-25% Northeastern input.

    The Kuline individuals are more shifted towards present-day Slavic-speaking populations as compared to individuals in the Central/Northern European cluster, agreeing with the presence of Y-chromosome lineage I2-L621 in Kuline, which is common in present-day Slavic-speaking groups and absent in earlier periods.


    2) Who are these modern Slavic-speaking populations? They better left out Poles, Czechs, and Slovaks and included only Ukrainians and Belarusians for instance, otherwise its misleading.

    3) They used the words more shifted which does not mean is fully shifted only in 1 direction but rather there could be more Northeastern ancestry than Central/Northern. Again, very misleading.

    In light of these results, we modeled the ancestry of the Kuline individuals as a mixture of 56% deriving from the local Balkan Iron Age substratum and 44% deriving from Northeastern European Iron Age groups, and obtained a good statistical fit (
    Figure 2; Supplementary section 12.8).

    4) Who are these Northeastern European Iron Age Groups that provided a good statistical fit with a 44% contribution in the Balkans? Sarmatians? Scythians?

    P.S. Regarding the 7-20% in the Aegean islands, for now Im only willing to accept that they received 7-20% Kuline-like admixture, not undiluted Northeastern admixture straight from the source. More like 3-8.8% of Northeastern (mainly) as well as slightly older Central/Northern already present in the Balkans.

    This papers conclusions stink. The older Peloponnese paper that I read months ago came up with a maximum of 14% Polish-like admixture in Peloponnese, which is for me personally understandable considering that using Poland kills 2 birds with 1 stone since it could include both Slavic, Gothic, and other older Carpathian related ancestries during the Imperial period.

    Im again going to trust my eyes on this too. I cant picture a Cretan or islander being 1/5th Russian.

    A South-Eastern Albanian? Yes, sure, in accordance with the settlement of Bulgarians and Vlachs, elevated R1a and I2a-Din North up to 30%, rounder heads and facial features, smaller noses, as well as more fair hair and eyes. It cannot be a coincidence.

    You go West and North from there, the features get immediately more Mediterranid/Dinarid, with Slavic Y-DNA ranging from 3-10%.

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    2 members found this post helpful.
    I have to agree with the other users here the authors seem to have done a poor job modelling modern balkan people.Why would they ever use ancient Greeks as a proxy to calculate the pre slavic component in modern South slavs??? Why aren't they at the very least using the Iron age Bulgarian sample, the HRV samples and some of the scythian Moldovan samples which were clearly of balkan origins??And then they are using mordovians to measure the northeastern European component instead of Ukrainians or Bellarussians who seem to be the "purest" slavs around

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill7 View Post
    I have to agree with the other users here the authors seem to have done a poor job modelling modern balkan people.Why would they ever use ancient Greeks as a proxy to calculate the pre slavic component in modern South slavs??? Why aren't they at the very least using the Iron age Bulgarian sample, the HRV samples and some of the scythian Moldovan samples which were clearly of balkan origins??And then they are using mordovians to measure the northeastern European component instead of Ukrainians or Bellarussians who seem to be the "purest" slavs around
    As a Mediterranean person raised in a corrupt Balkan country, the thought of bribing scientists to make your people appear as Slavic as possible comes so naturally to me Lol

    Jokes aside, being a person with a Finance background and hobbies in gym and gaming, even I managed to logically analyse the situation and pinpoint what appear to me as obvious weaknesses. Im no historian either, but Ive read enough articles and played few Total War games to know how the Dacians, Scythians, Goths, Huns, Avars, etc. attacked the Danubian lines for centuries, settled in Pannonia, Moesia, and Thrace, as well as forced Rome to resettle many defeated tribes in the Balkans to use them as recruits.

    It takes literally maximum 1 hour to refresh your memory on the Imperial Roman history, and Wikipedia articles suffice.

    They even show the map with the pie charts where Albania clearly has 40% Northeastern European admixture, almost if not as high as the Kuline samples. I mean look at the Albanian football team and compare it to Croatia or Hungary.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dushman View Post
    As a Mediterranean person raised in a corrupt Balkan country, the thought of bribing scientists to make your people appear as Slavic as possible comes so naturally to me Lol
    Jokes aside, being a person with a Finance background and hobbies in gym and gaming, even I managed to logically analyse the situation and pinpoint what appear to me as obvious weaknesses. I�m no historian either, but I�ve read enough articles and played few Total War games to know how the Dacians, Scythians, Goths, Huns, Avars, etc. attacked the Danubian lines for centuries, settled in Pannonia, Moesia, and Thrace, as well as forced Rome to resettle many defeated tribes in the Balkans to use them as recruits.
    It takes literally maximum 1 hour to refresh your memory on the Imperial Roman history, and Wikipedia articles suffice.
    They even show the map with the pie charts where Albania clearly has 40% Northeastern European admixture, almost if not as high as the Kuline samples. I mean look at the Albanian football team and compare it to Croatia or Hungary.
    Anyone who is familiar with Byzantine history knows that after the Romans recaptured Greece they pretty much killed or expelled all the slavs they found with maybe few surviving pockets remaining here and there. The same can be told for Albania especially the North where the slavs couldn't settle due to the mountainous terrain of the area.

    So I can't see how the slavs had the affect this paper claims to have. Also I'm studying philology so I have quite good knowledge of Greek and Balakn history

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    I think approximately ~20-25% Slavic input among Albanians and Northern Greeks make sense, it's more reasonable, in some cases up to ~30%. Otherwise the ancient Balkan samples clustering closer with Italians would not make sense.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill7 View Post
    Anyone who is familiar with Byzantine history knows that after the Romans recaptured Greece they pretty much killed or expelled all the slavs they found with maybe few surviving pockets remaining here and there.
    Hmm, very interesting...and when was that?

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    [QUOTE=Dushman;631454]As a Mediterranean person raised in a corrupt Balkan country, the thought of bribing scientists to make your people appear as Slavic as possible comes so naturally to me Lol

    Jokes aside, being a person with a Finance background and hobbies in gym and gaming, even I managed to logically analyse the situation and pinpoint what appear to me as obvious weaknesses. I�m no historian either, but I�ve read enough articles and played few Total War games to know how the Dacians, Scythians, Goths, Huns, Avars, etc. attacked the Danubian lines for centuries, settled in Pannonia, Moesia, and Thrace, as well as forced Rome to resettle many defeated tribes in the Balkans to use them as recruits.

    It takes literally maximum 1 hour to refresh your memory on the Imperial Roman history, and Wikipedia articles suffice.

    They even show the map with the pie charts where Albania clearly has 40% Northeastern European admixture, almost if not as high as the Kuline samples. I mean look at the Albanian football team and compare it to Croatia or Hungary.[/QUOTΕ]


    I want to avoid this thread

    But if you speak of Dacians then you must also findout about about Germidava, and General Maniakis.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    I think approximately ~20-25% Slavic input among Albanians and Northern Greeks make sense, it's more reasonable, in some cases up to ~30%. Otherwise the ancient Balkan samples clustering closer with Italians would not make sense.
    I personally believe that its max 20% and it consists of Dacians/Free Dacians + Celts + Germanics and whoever the Goths absorbed + Slavs, not exclusively Slavic.

    In my amateur opinion, North Albanians seem more North-West shifted than East shifted whereas South Albanians more South East (East Med) shifted than East European.

    If were 30% solely Slavic, than whats the percentage of Germanic and East Med? Anyone has some reliable data? Id truly like to have a look because that would make Albanians only almost half Balkan IA.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yetos View Post
    I supose a good start for the idea of Slavs are these 2 bellow links

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antes_(people)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carantania

    Carantania in some Aromani villages means also Black mountain Montenegro Crnagora


    the Goths

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ostrogoths

    interesting

    the last gothic speaker found in Crimea before a century about



    Dacian language

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacian_language

    my prsonal believe is Dacian is the basic language upon which later Albanian sprunk nad grow
    no idea why you added slavs
    Last edited by torzio; 24-09-21 at 03:14.
    Fathers mtdna ...... T2b17
    Grandfather mtdna ... T1a1e
    Sons mtdna ...... K1a4p
    Mothers line ..... R1b-S8172
    Grandmother paternal side ... I1-CTS6397
    Wife paternal line ..... R1a-Z282

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill7 View Post
    I have to agree with the other users here the authors seem to have done a poor job modelling modern balkan people.Why would they ever use ancient Greeks as a proxy to calculate the pre slavic component in modern South slavs??? Why aren't they at the very least using the Iron age Bulgarian sample, the HRV samples and some of the scythian Moldovan samples which were clearly of balkan origins??And then they are using mordovians to measure the northeastern European component instead of Ukrainians or Bellarussians who seem to be the "purest" slavs around
    But they aren't using ancient Greek samples to calculate the Slavic admixture of Balkan Slavs. They are actually using Late Roman Age samples from Serbia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ihype02 View Post
    But they aren't using ancient Greek samples to calculate the Slavic admixture of Balkan Slavs. They are actually using Late Roman Age samples from Serbia.
    If is it easy can you send the link of the study?? I remember they used the empuries samples to calculate the native admixture

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill7 View Post
    If is it easy can you send the link of the study?? I remember they used the empuries samples to calculate the native admixture
    The whole point of the study are the Roman Age samples of Serbia! Check the OP.

    "The Roman Empire expanded through the Mediterranean shores and brought human mobility and cosmopolitanism across this inland sea to an unprecedented scale. However, if this was also common at the Empire frontiers remains undetermined. The Balkans and Danube River were of strategic importance for the Romans acting as an East-West connection and as a defense line against “barbarian” tribes. We generated genome-wide data from 70 ancient individuals from present-day Serbia dated to the first millennium CE; including Viminacium, capital of Moesia Superior province. Our analyses reveal large scale-movements from Anatolia during Imperial rule, similar to the pattern observed in Rome, and cases of individual mobility from as far as East Africa. Between ∼250-500 CE, we detect gene-flow from Central/Northern Europe harboring admixtures of Iron Age steppe groups. Tenth-century CE individuals harbored North-Eastern European-related ancestry likely associated to Slavic-speakers, which contributed >20% of the ancestry of today’s Balkan people."
    They used the Ancient Greek samples only for Greeks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill7 View Post
    I have to agree with the other users here the authors seem to have done a poor job modelling modern balkan people.Why would they ever use ancient Greeks as a proxy to calculate the pre slavic component in modern South slavs??? Why aren't they at the very least using the Iron age Bulgarian sample, the HRV samples and some of the scythian Moldovan samples which were clearly of balkan origins??And then they are using mordovians to measure the northeastern European component instead of Ukrainians or Bellarussians who seem to be the "purest" slavs around
    Once again, if you had read the paper, you would know that Bulgarian Iron Age clusters close to ancient Greeks and they attempted to model modern Balkanites using the Bulgarian Iron Age sample, among others.

    "First, we attempted to model the ancestry of present-day Balkan populations as one-way models with different groups whose ancestry derived entirely from pre-Roman Balkans populations: Croatia_MBA_EIA (Mathieson et al., 2018), the cluster of Roman-period individuals from Timacum Minus and Viminacium modelled in supplementary section 12.1 (Balkans Iron Age cluster), and 400 BCE - 200 CE individuals from the Greek colony of Empúries (Spain) with fully Aegean-related ancestry (Greek_Empuries 14) (Table ST8). These three groups acted as representatives of northern, central and southern Balkans-related ancestry, respectively. If the 1-way models provided a good fit to the data, this would indicate genetic continuity in the Balkans since prior to the Roman period and no significant long-term demographic impact of the Slavic migration or other population movements in the region over the past ~2,000 years. However, all the models failed with extremely low P-values, strongly rejecting population continuity in the Balkans since pre-Roman times, and documenting a history of mixture."

    "We then tried to model the present-day groups as a two-way model. Similar to the modelling of 10th century individuals from Kuline (supplementary section 12.1), we try models with one local Balkans source (either Balkans Iron Age cluster, Croatia_MBA_EIA or Greek_Empuries), and a proxy for Northeastern European-related ancestry (either Russia_Ingria_IA or present-day populations from Eastern Europe).

    "A model having Balkans Iron Age cluster (as the local source) and Russian_Ingria_IA (as the Northeastern European-related source) fitted for three present-day Balkan populations, Hungary, Croatian and Serbian with P-value>0.01 (Table ST9), as well as for the Kuline 10th c. CE with almost identical mixture proportions as in the 1240k dataset (supplementary section 12.1).

    Let's remember, of course, that the Balkans Iron Age cluster was about 2/3 Mycenaean ancient Greek, with the remaining 33% being Slovenian Iron Age.

    That explains the fact that in the PCA some Serbs and Hungarians are in between the Kuline cluster and the NCE cluster.

    Now, I seem to recall from somewhere that the Slovenian Iron Age sample is close to Croatian Middle Bronze Age, but

    However, this is only found in Hungary, Croatia and Serbia, because they're the only populations which can be fitted with Balkans Iron Age Cluster.

    For Bulgaria, Romania, Albania and Greece...

    "However, this model did not fit the ancestry of the remaining more southern (except Romanian) populations, who instead required a more local source represented by Greek_Empuries, and present-day Mordovian or Russian as proxy for Northeastern European-related ancestry. These models fit the ancestry for the remaining Balkans populations (Table ST10; Table ST11), with ~30-55% Northeastern European-related ancestry."

    Albanians come out needing about 38% Mordovian or Russian ancestry, similar to Greek Macedonia.

    Now, if in the future a more proximate source is found, these percentages may change, but if it is a sample closer in space to the Balkans, it would seem to me that the percentages might even be higher.









    And no, the Ukrainians are not the "purest" Slavs. They're too far south of that. Plus, because of the mass depopulation of the area caused by the Tartars, the Ukraine was re-settled by Slavs from all over the east. They wouldn't at all be representative of the Slavs of the early Medieval period.


    Non si fa il proprio dovere perchè qualcuno ci dica grazie, lo si fa per principio, per se stessi, per la propria dignità. Oriana Fallaci

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dushman View Post
    1) Can you please clarify something for me? Reich Lab used the Kuline Cluster as a proxy for the Northeastern Europeans/Slavs?

    If that�s the case then it�s a problematic model because the Kuline samples were over 50% Balkan IA, thus leaving around 20-25% Northeastern input.

    The Kuline individuals are more shifted towards present-day Slavic-speaking populations as compared to individuals in the Central/Northern European cluster, agreeing with the presence of Y-chromosome lineage I2-L621 in Kuline, which is common in present-day Slavic-speaking groups and absent in earlier periods.


    2) Who are these modern Slavic-speaking populations? They better left out Poles, Czechs, and Slovaks and included only Ukrainians and Belarusians for instance, otherwise it�s misleading.

    3) They used the words ���more shifted� which does not mean is fully shifted only in 1 direction but rather there could be more Northeastern ancestry than Central/Northern. Again, very misleading.

    In light of these results, we modeled the ancestry of the Kuline individuals as a mixture of 56% deriving from the local Balkan Iron Age substratum and 44% deriving from Northeastern European Iron Age groups, and obtained a good statistical fit (
    Figure 2; Supplementary section 12.8).

    4) Who are these Northeastern European Iron Age Groups that provided a good statistical fit with a 44% contribution in the Balkans? Sarmatians? Scythians?

    P.S. Regarding the 7-20% in the Aegean islands, for now I�m only willing to accept that they received 7-20% Kuline-like admixture, not �undiluted� Northeastern admixture straight from the source. More like 3-8.8% of Northeastern (mainly) as well as slightly older Central/Northern already present in the Balkans.

    This paper�s conclusions stink. The older Peloponnese paper that I read months ago came up with a maximum of 14% Polish-like admixture in Peloponnese, which is for me personally understandable considering that using Poland kills 2 birds with 1 stone since it could include both Slavic, Gothic, and other older Carpathian related ancestries during the Imperial period.

    I�m again going to trust my eyes on this too. I can�t picture a Cretan or islander being 1/5th Russian.

    A South-Eastern Albanian? Yes, sure, in accordance with the settlement of Bulgarians and Vlachs, elevated R1a and I2a-Din North up to 30%, rounder heads and facial features, smaller noses, as well as more fair hair and eyes. It cannot be a coincidence.

    You go West and North from there, the features get immediately more Mediterranid/Dinarid, with Slavic Y-DNA ranging from 3-10%.
    When putting forth your ideas about whether or not you agree with the conclusions of a paper it makes sense to READ the paper first, which some of you have clearly not done.

    If you had read the paper you could not possibly conclude that the Kuline cluster is the Medieval INCOMING SLAVIC speaking group. The paper specifically says they're a Medieval (900-1000 C.E.) group which shows ADMIXTURE between local Balkans people and incoming Slavs.

    To quote the paper:
    "To understand this, we performed a PCA using present-day Germanic- and Slavic-speaking populations (Supplementary section 9; Figure S9) that we expected would be sensitive to more recent drift separating Central, Northern and Eastern European populations. The Kuline individuals are more shifted towards present-day Slavic[1]speaking populations as compared to individuals in the Central/Northern European cluster, agreeing with the presence of Y-chromosome lineage I2-L621 in Kuline, which is common in present-day Slavic-speaking groups and absent in earlier periods. In light of these results, we modeled the ancestry of the Kuline individuals as a mixture of 56% deriving from the local Balkan Iron Age substratum and 44% deriving from Northeastern European Iron Age groups, and obtained a good statistical fit (Figure 2; Supplementary section 12.8)."

    The modern day Slavic speaking populations are the Slavic speaking populations in the BALKANS.

    There is nothing misleading about saying a population is "more" shifted toward Slavs than towards the CNE cluster, especially when they provide a PCA where you can see exactly what they're saying. They're taking a cluster composed of locals, plus a Northern European Iron Age group, plus 13% steppe Sarmatian, and one which was composed of locals plus Slavs, and using very sophisticated genetics algorithms, show that the shift which occurred around the Medieval period around Kuline and which can also explain modern populations in the northern Balkans, was caused by Slavic speaking peoples.

    Basically they're describing what can be seen in the PCA they posted in the Supplement. Now, given the variation in the Balkans it's not all neat and tidy. Most of the Serbs and Hungarians are in the Kuline cluster abutting Poles and Russians, but some appear in the NCE cluster. A lot of Romanians are in the space between the Kuline cluster and the eastern edge of the NCE cluster. Interestingly, the Albanians seem to be in the NCE cluster.
    [IMG] [/IMG]

    Looking just at the PCA one might be tempted to say that perhaps the admixture was partly Germanic, but we always have to remember that PCAs only show two axis of variation. The much more robust statistical algorithms employed definitely see the major post 500 C.E. admixture as Slavic. Unfortunately, however, one of the early Slav samples, one found in the Czech Republic, doesn't work, which is why they stuck with a very far northeastern sample. I'm leaving an open mind as to whether there's a more proximate early Slav sample which perhaps has some Germanic which is a better fit?

    The yDna of the Balkans supports the conclusions of the authors. Yes, there was a cluster of ancient samples which seemed to have both Germanic and late steppe admixture, like Sarmatians, but it must have been a case of people like the Lombards and Huns etc. just passing through and not leaving a very big impact. If it were otherwise you'd have a significant amount of yDna I1 and U-106. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that isn't the case. I don't know about the Sarmatian R1a mentioned in the paper, but I've never heard that referred to before, so I'm assuming there's not a lot of it.

    Northeastern European Iron Age groups are the groups found in Russia_Igria, which posters would know had they read the Supplement. The area was occupied by Finnic and Slavic tribes.

    You're free to believe anything you want, but until you have statistical proof using ancient samples, it's not going to convince anyone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dushman View Post
    I personally believe that it�s max 20% and it consists of Dacians/Free Dacians + Celts + Germanics and whoever the Goths absorbed + Slavs, not exclusively Slavic.

    In my amateur opinion, North Albanians seem more North-West shifted than East shifted whereas South Albanians more South East (East Med) shifted than East European.

    If we�re 30% solely Slavic, than what�s the percentage of Germanic and East Med? Anyone has some reliable data? I�d truly like to have a look because that would make Albanians only almost half Balkan IA.
    Why Celts/Germanics when their influence was not nearly as much as Slavic migrations. As i said it can reach up to ~30% with averaged probably being somewhere closer to ~25%. It is what it is. Otherwise explain the anomaly of ancient Balkanites clustering with Italians, of course this is due to poor calculator algorithms, but they catch the bigger picture after all.

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    Haven't read the entire paper but the only doubt to me here would be Viminacium was large city and military frontier in which migrants from all over the empire can come as soldiers,traders or anything else,for example if you tested Thesaloniki centuries ago you would have had different picture for today's inhabitants since back then majority were Jewish population,testing more simple from the inner in province could give better picture.Also the proxy for "Slavic" or northeast ancestry as Mordovian or Igria is laughable to me,since we can not determine what was that pure medieval Slav looking like,for instance if we found him in Balkans,and he has significant Balkan ancestry we will say he is admixed,or if we found him in Slovakia that north east ancestry will again lack,so that's why we need to take Mordovian as proxy which is not even Slavic to begin with.Much more samples are needed from different population and groups from all over the empire and out of it to come with such drastic conclusion.

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