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Thread: Ancient DNA of Roman Danubian Frontier and Slavic Migrations (Olalde 2021)

  1. #651
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    Quote Originally Posted by lacreme View Post
    I think I recall reading a post here giving the percentage of R1b-U106 in non Slavic Balkan peoples ( Greeks, Albanians ) as an example of the very small contribution (in comparison with the Slavic) of Germanic DNA to the total northern input of them. While I agree that the contribution is probably very small, isn't R1b-U106 associated mostly with West Germanic peoples ? Wouldn't I1 be more appropriate ( still in very small percentages ) considering the fact that the most important/impactful Germanic tribes for the history of Balkans in general were the Goths and later the Varangians ?
    In general I'd say that the combination of I1 and R-U106 is always a safe starting point for debating about Germanic contributions. If just one of those two is present in a low percentage, we might speculate about more indirect, say Celtic or Roman influences as well. Ultimately from the Northern sphere, but probably not from the main, Iron Age Germanic groups. Its possible some Northern Celts and other groups had it too. In a region in which both I1 and R-U106 appear >1 % each, we can say a true Germanic contribution is safe and it might be good to search for other haplogroups subclades too, which might be of Germanic origin. At some point we might conclude that I1+U106 at about 3 % might equal total Germanic paternal contribution of about 5-7 % or something along these lines, because most Germanic tribes wouldn't have been exclusively of these two lineages.

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    Attachment 12917
    Attachment 12918

    Looking at the clusters above, I just realized that the population is so “Roman” (mixed) that simply stating a cluster is Balkan IA will not suffice knowing the high similarities between IA Italian, Balkan, Greek, and Aegean populations.

    We can’t know for certain if the samples categorized as Balkan IA were Central or Northern Balkans, mainland Greeks, half Balkan half Aegean/Anatolian, etc.

    Within a town, we can see 7 E-V13>CTS1273 being called Balkan and 2 as Near Eastern. How can we know those 4 were fully Northern Thracians/Dacians/Illyrians and not Aegean/Anatolian admixed?

    Then we have 1 R1b-Z2103 as Balkan IA, 1 Near Eastern, and 1 Central Northern European. Granted with R1b-Z2103 he could have been of a different Anatolian branch, but still important to be aware.

    Similarly, we have a 1 R1a-417>Z645 as Steppe and 1 as Central Northern European as well as 1 G2a-P15>303 being Balkan while 1 is North Western European.

    I believe we need enough samples from the countryside of each Balkan region (NW, SW, Central, NE, SE, as well as mainland Greece) to come to relatively conclusive ideas of what IA Balkans were like, thus leading to correct estimates of Germanic, Slavic, and East-Med contributions on the modern local populations.

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Dushman & Francis you guys might appreciate this:

    After getting in touch with various people, giving them my coordinates and asking for a 2nd opinion I think I am getting a clearer view of this.

    One of them replied:

    "Interesting. On that very messy Ancient individual samples run, you're showing 14.2% Krakauer Berg ancestry, which is much higher than the slightly above 1% in Macedonian average. I have no idea what modern population it could stand for, although as I said it's much closer to the Baltic people than to the Slavs, especially S Slavs.

    You're also showing considerably more Levantine ancestry than Macedonian average. No one would expect those two things to come together.


    Target: A0_scaled
    Distance: 0.1659% / 0.00165911
    14.2 DEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA
    12.6 TUR_Barcin_N
    11.0 Levant_Ashkelon_IA1
    9.0 VK2020_RUS_Gnezdovo_VA
    8.4 TUR_Arslantepe_LC
    8.0 Baltic_EST_BA
    7.8 TUR_Tell_Kurdu_EC
    7.0 RUS_Afanasievo
    3.6 DEU_LBK_SMH
    3.4 DEU_MA_Baiuvaric_o
    3.4 SRB_N
    1.8 VK2020_SWE_Gotland_VA
    1.6 TUR_Alalakh_MLBA
    1.4 VK2020_POL_Bodzia_VA
    1.2 VK2020_RUS_Pskov_VA
    1.0 Levant_Beirut_ERoman
    0.8 AUT_LBK_N
    0.8 CHN_Balong_1500BP
    0.8 Levant_PPNC
    0.4 GRC_Minoan_Lassithi
    0.4 VEN_Ceramic
    0.4 VUT_1100BP
    0.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Kalmykia
    0.4 ZEM24
    0.2 CHN_Upper_Yellow_River_LN
    Hm. I am at a loss."
    Interestingly I also found this:
    https://slavicorigins.blogspot.com/2...-and-berg.html



    After removing Germanic component from Krakauer Berg samples, two clusters form. One apears Slavic, one Baltic.

    Then this all clicked with the various models,calculations,tests I have done on my own coordinates.





    Just based on the age of the samples, and the tag, the shift in my own coordinates, compared to BA/IA Balkans seems Baltic BA/Scandianavian Varangian - > Eastern European, than south Slavic.

    Here is a bunch of calculations I did some days ago:
    https://imgur.com/a/TXztTav

    No wonder the authors were grasping at straws with Mordovians (Fino Urgis), and modern Russians (Eastern Slavic). Because if Albanians (likely even Greeks to some extend) will have anything substantially in common with South Slavs ancestors, the link will likely be BA Baltic in nature. Thus for them picking CZE Early Slav, or any sort of west Slav, from whence the South Slavic migration started, would not have supported their hypothesis.

    Gotta say, kudos to them for finding a way to present the data in a way to support their hypothesis. That certainly would have taken skill.
    “Man cannot live without a permanent trust in something indestructible in himself, and at the same time that indestructible something as well as his trust in it may remain permanently concealed from him.”

    ― Franz Kafka

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    @Archetype0ne Great job brother and thanks for sharing.

    The only problem is I have absolutely no idea how to read calculators.

    Could you deduct from this information how much proper Slavic related ancestry you have?

    I knew from the available data so far that something was sketchy about that paper. I’m never going to trust a paper analyzing ancient Balkans and comparing Albanians whose contributors’ lastnames end in -ic and -ovic. We Balkanites haven’t reached that level of scientific integrity yet.

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    Focus this paper IS NOT %Slavic genes in Albanians. All data for Albanians and others Balkan peoples come from database of leading authors (Barselona, Harvard...). I do not understand comments about names and connection with scientific integrity???!!!!

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    Read some Noam Chomsky on intellectuals. Might contextualize what's up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zell View Post
    Focus this paper IS NOT %Slavic genes in Albanians. All data for Albanians and others Balkan peoples come from database of leading authors (Barselona, Harvard...). I do not understand comments about names and connection with scientific integrity???!!!!
    It’s fine, don’t beat yourself up. You’re not supposed to understand everything and that post was not directed at you.

    Similarly, I for instance did not fully understand Archetype’s post with calculators. Not a big deal, we’re all here to learn through sharing and asking questions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zell View Post
    Focus this paper IS NOT %Slavic genes in Albanians. All data for Albanians and others Balkan peoples come from database of leading authors (Barselona, Harvard...). I do not understand comments about names and connection with scientific integrity???!!!!
    I agree with you, one of the main points which interests me from the paper is the Bronze Age to Iron Age expansion of E-V13. A lot of things discussed were spamming the thread. Ironically, the same people spamming this thread reported our posts just mentioning few times E-V13 in the Daunian paper thread.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dushman View Post
    @Archetype0ne Great job brother and thanks for sharing.

    The only problem is I have absolutely no idea how to read calculators.

    Could you deduct from this information how much proper Slavic related ancestry you have?

    I knew from the available data so far that something was sketchy about that paper. I�m never going to trust a paper analyzing ancient Balkans and comparing Albanians whose contributors� lastnames end in -ic and -ovic. We Balkanites haven�t reached that level of scientific integrity yet.
    I will explain later when I am finish some work.

    But from the calculator you can not tell how much Slavic I have because we do not really know for certain where the South Slavic ancestors originated from.

    A preface of my future post to explain the calculator/calculation:

    Based on a probably overfit yet detailed model:

    I have 15 Krakauen Berg, where half of it is Germanic half Baltic. That is 7.5% Baltic.

    9% Varangian Rus Gnezdovo

    8% Baltic Bronze Age

    7% Afasinevo (Eastern Yamnaya Related)

    Further 3% Pskov/Bodzia Viking / Varangian

    Notice how 0% of that is South Slavic? or even West Slavic?
    Now if we knew where the ancestral land of South Slavs was we could make assumtions how much South Slavic I have.
    It is a hot debate, among amateurs and even academics, with no clear answer, was it Zarubyntsi ? Was it Kiev? Was it Prague? Which culture? These cultures are separated by like 50-200 years in-between, and span thousands of KM, certainly they are mutually exclusive to each other.

    I can safely say that I have some Varangian ancestry lifting my Baltic, Germanic and Eastern Slavic component. I don't know if this predates the Ethnogenesis of the South Slavs, or post dates it. But if the current leading theory that South Slavs originated from the border between Czechia, Germany and Poland is correct, any Slavic I might have is from a totally different region, and took a totally different historical path.

    Side Note: For myself it is the most surprising, and unexpected, how ancestries you do not expect to find together in people shifted in one of those ways, appear in me. Say high Baltic shift, with high Levant shift. This means on the PCA I might remain in the same region as my neighbors, but with totally different, more extreme ingredients, to say the average.

    Edit: I might as well.

    Those calculators, when you go AC-BC mode, tell you the difference in shift.
    AC, BC being segments of certain lenght. Better yet vectors.
    When you subtact those vectors, you are left with a leftover vector, with a distance and direction. This leftover vector from the starting point tells you what shift remains once you finish the calculation.


    Here I wanted to find the shift needed to bring the BGR_IA sample to my present G25 coordinates.

    AC-BC=
    meaning My distance/vector to x sample, minus BGR_IA distance/vector to x sample, giving a C result, with a distance and direction of shift.

    The results then are ascending or descending.
    From the above image. The green results, shows which sample I am closer too, in relation to BGR_IA is closet too.
    Meaning vector A0toVK2020_Rus_Pskov_VA - BGR_IAtoVK2020_Rus_Pskov_VA gives the greatest difference. In the green results it shows that I am the closest to VK2020Pskov in comparison to BGR_IA.

    I interpret this as BGR_IA needs a shift of VK2020_Rus_Pskov_VA to bring forth my coordinates.

    On the second part of the image the red results, it is similar. A0toC - BGR_IAtoC = greatest distance. Where I am furthest to C compared to BGR_IA, or BGR_IA is closest to that sample in relation to me. In this case Minoan relatively speaking is the closest population closest to BGR_IA in relation to me.

    I suck at explaining I know. The best way to understand this tool is to play with it.
    Go on Vahaduo. Paste 2 samples on target, then go on distance, and click the mode, from distance, till you see AC-BC mode. Then play with it, with sample you are familiar with. It will make much mroe sense.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dianatomia View Post
    The IA Balkanians are paralel to modern Greeks overall to be honnest. Perhaps these tribes migrated South at some point or multiple points of time. I am thinking that there may have been a difference between Greeks inland and Greeks on the Southern coast and the islands. The Thessalian Greeks who had high Steppe admixture where isolated by mountainious terrain. Other than those two samples, all other samples are from Southern Coastal areas. Even the more recent Marathon sample who seems close to modern Greek islanders. Attica belonged to the South Aegean mainframe after all. I am betting that we are missing quite a lot of material when it comes to ancient Greeks. A lot of these IA Balkanians were probably also to be found in the Greek mainland, and the migrations during the iron age spread their genetic material all over the region.
    Which Thessalian Greeks with "high steppe admixture" are you talking about? They may have existed at some point but we need to see them first. The theory of "rural, unadmixed, high-steppe" Greeks that survived everything and are wrongly accused of having Slavic ancestry doesn't hold, because we know for a fact that Slavic Y DNA % is significant in mainland Greece.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dianatomia View Post
    Another overseen factor is sexual selection. Some types with more Steppe admixture may have had more access to sex. This is mostly due to the fact Greek heroes and some Gods where sometimes described fair. Probably because this seemed exotic to the Greeks.
    This is just conjecture. So far not a single Ancient Greek sample has been shown to have blonde hair or blue eyes. It's clear that the majority of these traits in modern Greece are Corded Ware-derived (as in most of Europe) and they're higher in frequency compared to Ancient Greece not because of sexual selection but because of migrations from the north. They actually appear to be stabilised (maybe even regressed) in frequency over time, I don't think there's any sign of strong selection, unlike what happened in northern Europe. You can just take a look at modern mainland Greeks, the vast majority have brown hair and brown eyes and they're not particularly pale. I imagine it's a similar situation with central and southern Italy, the G allele at rs12913832 should be around 30-50%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dushman View Post
    Attachment 12917
    Attachment 12918Looking at the clusters above, I just realized that the population is so �Roman� (mixed) that simply stating a cluster is Balkan IA will not suffice knowing the high similarities between IA Italian, Balkan, Greek, and Aegean populations.

    [...]

    I believe we need enough samples from the countryside of each Balkan region (NW, SW, Central, NE, SE, as well as mainland Greece) to come to relatively conclusive ideas of what IA Balkans were like, thus leading to correct estimates of Germanic, Slavic, and East-Med contributions on the modern local populations.
    We've been hearing these arguments about the countryside for years, "cities are sinks", "the cosmopolitan urbanites disappeared", etc. And yet the Etruscan paper shows that modern Tuscans carry significant ancestry from those urbanites that supposedly disappeared. I'm quite sure we'll see the same scenario play out in the Balkans as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dushman View Post
    Attachment 12917Then we have 1 R1b-Z2103 as Balkan IA, 1 Near Eastern, and 1 Central Northern European. Granted with R1b-Z2103 he could have been of a different Anatolian branch, but still important to be aware.

    Similarly, we have a 1 R1a-417>Z645 as Steppe and 1 as Central Northern European as well as 1 G2a-P15>303 being Balkan while 1 is North Western European.
    Why is that strange? These are very old clades with a very wide distribution.

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    ^^Yes, Razib Khan and the authors of Antonio et al are obviously secretly Italians with a hidden agenda.


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    On the right track. The Balkans was once one of the "refugia" (Italy and Iberia the others) during the last glacial maximum, and the "refugees" followed the ice to the Baltic area. (Italy-/Iberia-origin people settled more northwestern areas.)

    I contend that the remnants of these people (and there definitely are) in the Balkans are contributing to this "northeastern" pull that so many people like to blather on about here.

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    2 members found this post helpful.
    Problem is that there were no WHG like people in the Balkans until you got all the way up to the Iron Gates, so it was rather a clean sweep for the Anatolian farmers, i.e. virtually no WHG like admixture.

    It only returned with Steppe people, and later with Slavs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Constantine View Post
    On the right track. The Balkans was once one of the "refugia" (Italy and Iberia the others) during the last glacial maximum, and the "refugees" followed the ice to the Baltic area. (Italy-/Iberia-origin people settled more northwestern areas.)

    I contend that the remnants of these people (and there definitely are) in the Balkans are contributing to this "northeastern" pull that so many people like to blather on about here.
    That would be right my friend. Had you tested your own hypothesis and not blathered yourself.

    Quote Originally Posted by Greekscholar View Post
    This isn't my model, it is 23abc's. It does a good job in this case though of showing how the distance measure between some of the ancient and modern Balkan/Central European groups is only skin deep. I have read your posts, but whatever you think Baltic_BA was, it isn't found in the Avar individual or in the Helladic MBA samples (or only in small amounts.) It is found in modern Albanians, yourself, and modern Greeks.


    Target: Albanian
    Distance: 1.1798% / 0.01179793
    51.2 Anatolia_Barcin_N
    21.6 Corded_Ware_DEU
    16.4 Baltic_BA
    6.4 IRN_Ganj_Dareh_N
    4.2 GEO_CHG
    0.2 Levant_Natufian


    Target: A0_scaled
    Distance: 2.5397% / 0.02539744
    47.4 Anatolia_Barcin_N
    22.4 Corded_Ware_DEU
    18.2 Baltic_BA
    4.6 GEO_CHG
    3.8 Levant_Natufian
    3.6 IRN_Ganj_Dareh_N


    Target: Greek_Peloponnese
    Distance: 1.4895% / 0.01489507
    49.6 Anatolia_Barcin_N
    20.0 Corded_Ware_DEU
    13.2 Baltic_BA
    8.0 IRN_Ganj_Dareh_N
    4.8 GEO_CHG
    4.4 Levant_Natufian




    Target: GRC_Helladic_MBA
    Distance: 2.3174% / 0.02317423
    48.8 Anatolia_Barcin_N
    44.4 Corded_Ware_DEU
    4.8 GEO_CHG
    1.2 Levant_Natufian
    0.8 Baltic_BA


    Target: HUN_MA_Szolad:SZ36
    Distance: 2.2296% / 0.02229582
    48.4 Anatolia_Barcin_N
    36.8 Corded_Ware_DEU
    5.8 Levant_Natufian
    3.4 GEO_CHG
    3.4 IRN_Ganj_Dareh_N
    2.2 Baltic_BA
    Unless this Ice Age happened in the last 3000 years that is, then surely I am the one blathering.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    Problem is that there were no WHG like people in the Balkans until you got all the way up to the Iron Gates, so it was rather a clean sweep for the Anatolian farmers, i.e. virtually no WHG like admixture.

    It only returned with Steppe people, and later with Slavs.
    Angela, do you know why Tuscans score so little to none WHG?

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    Deleted -- Deleted

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    What happened Francis? will PM you.
    That is not very nice what you said. No need for tears, we are who we are no matter what.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    ^^Yes, Razib Khan and the authors of Antonio et al are obviously secretly Italians with a hidden agenda.
    Bryan Ward-Perkins is one of the most Italian names there can be.


    In fact, he was the first authors I have seen that said cities were sinks, and there were deep demographic changes after the fall of Rome. Bryan Ward-Perkins, probably some kind of Napolitano I'm sure.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Archetype0ne View Post
    What happened Francis? will PM you.
    That is not very nice what you said. No need for tears, we are who we are no matter what.
    Yea I would like it if you coudl pm the f-stats please.

    It is not true that this baltic artifact doesnt appear in the paleobalkan world though.

    56.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Francis Drake View Post
    Yea I would like it if you coudl pm the f-stats please.

    It is not true that this baltic artifact doesnt appear in the paleobalkan world though.

    56.jpg
    Interestingly enough the PM I just sent before even reading this post should deal with that. I am no expert in Baltic, lets get that out as a disclaimer. But the ones that are, and have no interest in the Balkans one way or the other, members on anthro proficient both in fstats and Balto Slavic history have been going at it for the last two three days... The consensus among the more learned ones seems to be that Balt_EST_BA is a dead end... since it left no surviving lines/cultures, and was replaced by Baltic BA... Something about the WHG in it and what not. Again I am no expert. And really no point to prove. In fact your model would suit my "agenda"/pov more, if I was not duly convinced by the arguments over at anthro by people who actually focus on that part of the world.

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    2 members found this post helpful.
    I wish people would stop modeling stuff with Levant_N,

    Levant_N is not a monolithic source population, and subsumes a lot of Anatolia_N, which would otherwise be assigned to that component.



    The ancient Rome paper has a great resource for the timeline tab of this link:

    Ancient Rome Data Explorer (shinyapps.io)

    (Also, as a side note, someone must have made a mistake labeling, because I know for a fact that those Taforalt samples are Paleolithic, not EN. The study is listed, for anyone that wants to verify that.)

    Here we have two important papers regarding the middle east.

    You can see that Natufians (i.e. Levantine Farmers) have a relatively large amount of Morroccan Hunter-gatherer, and a great deal of Anatolia_N.

    As far as I am concerned, the only "monolithic" ancestry sources in the Middle east are from Anatolia and Iran. Ergo, because both of those ancestries are also present in Europe, you really have to see if there is a small yet significant amount of Morroccan_HG, to determine Levantine admixture.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    They're pure Slav because the Slav migrations south started from there, and they have very little Central European Anatolian farmer. Look them up for goodness' sakes. The area was populated by Slavic tribes. Czech Slav is obviously admixed because it does have a lot of that southern Anatolian component.

    All these people either desperately wanting to have less or more "Slavic" ancestry in them seem to know next to nothing about Slavic ethnogenesis, I must say.

    Plus, what is going on? I realize you didn't read the paper, or, God forbid, the more difficult Supplement, but you don't even understand the small excerpts I posted? They didn't just model with Ingrian and Mordovian; they also modeled with modern Russians and got a decent fit.

    No matter how it's modeled, you're not more than 50% Slav. The maximum in the Balkans is 55% Slav. I told you years ago you'd have to accept that you're at least 50% native Balkan with its high Aegean Iron Age component.

    As for they couldn't have made it to the Balkans with a lot of people not admixed, I suggest you take a look at the Langobard paper. They came all the way from now Denmark, wandered through the Balkans all the way to the Black Sea, then west to Italy, and the samples in Piedmont, far northwestern Italy are mostly still as Germanic as when they started, and they still carry one yDna haplogroup.


    No matter how much you want to distort history and facts again, everything that matters has been written long ago in history and linguistics.
    There is no way to make a bigger or real Slavs from the Finns, Ugrians and Turks than the original South Slavs. These are the Bulgarians according to linguistic and history records! The first Slavs are located on the Danube and not on the Baltic or Central Asia.
    There are no two opinions here when it comes to the structure of archaic language, said by names in linguistics, and not funny provocateurs without education like you:
    As early as 1945, Academician N.S. Derzhavin expressed the idea that the analytical type of the modern Bulgarian language is its archaic feature, and does not represent transition from synthesis to analytics: “Compared to the Russian language, the modern Bulgarian language is distinguished by the archaic nature of its lexical composition and grammatical structure ... “
    Historically, it is also known who gave the Cyrillic alphabet and culturally expanded its influence over two continents, this is the Bulgarian kingdom and the far-sighted policy of the Bulgarian king. Bulgaria is the first Slavic state and while in Russia and the Baltics non-IE languages were spoken, in Bulgaria/Balkans there is no evidence of a foreign/non IE substrate. There is no change in the toponymy in the imposed 6-7 century when some Finnish-Turkish Slavs had to come from the north. In addition, we have an official treaty between the Roman Empire and notice THE state of Bulgaria at 480 AD (that is, 200 years before the supposed "Slavic sea" :) attacked us from the lands of the Turko-Finns and Ugrics), so your efforts hit a snag and so it will be as long as there is real science.
    This northeastern component that you want to make Slavic by force against any scientific evidence has been present in the Balkans for a long time and it is ridiculous to associate it with Slavs as it has nothing to do with IE languages at all.

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    2 members found this post helpful.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovialis View Post
    I wish people would stop modeling stuff with Levant_N,

    Levant_N is not a monolithic source population, and subsumes a lot of Anatolia_N, which would otherwise be assigned to that component.



    The ancient Rome paper has a great resource for the timeline tab of this link:

    Ancient Rome Data Explorer (shinyapps.io)

    (Also, as a side note, someone must have made a mistake labeling, because I know for a fact that those Taforalt samples are Paleolithic, not EN. The study is listed, for anyone that wants to verify that.)

    Here we have two important papers regarding the middle east.

    You can see that Natufians (i.e. Levantine Farmers) have a relatively large amount of Morroccan Hunter-gatherer, and a great deal of Anatolia_N.

    As far as I am concerned, the only "monolithic" ancestry sources in the Middle east are from Anatolia and Iran. Ergo, because both of those ancestries are also present in Europe, you really have to see if there is a small yet significant amount of Morroccan_HG, to determine Levantine admixture.
    Not directed at present company, but I think a big issue in this hobby is that there are a lot of people that want to pretend the Levant is a monolithic source, and are furious at the fact that it is distinguished by Moroccan Hunter-gatherer admixture.


    Ever since the Lazaridis 2018 pre-print, it has been abundantly clear to me, that Levantine is indeed defined by Ancient North Africans, who are used to model Natufians, by about a quarter. Which the rest being Dzudzuana (Anatolian_N-like).


    This is part of the reason why 23andme includes North Africa, and the Levant in one component.

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