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Thread: Ancient DNA of Roman Danubian Frontier and Slavic Migrations (Olalde 2021)

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    Some of the responses to Jovialis' post are a little too precious imo. Everyone should know precisely what he means by "temporary".

    It's what I've been suggesting as a possibility for years, as has Jovialis since he joined this site, and which has now been adopted by Razib Khan, the Reich Lab, and has been adopted and summarized in post number 177 by Riverman.

    Under this hypothesis, cities were sinks, not sources for variation, not very healthy and so the population had to constantly be replenished from the countryside, and as Rome declined, and tradesmen, etc. moved to new centers, the "tail to the east" of Antonio et al disappeared.

    Was there some impact on the local population? Probably, but considering the Italian cline it lessened as one goes north.

    Why might that be? I think it is probable that a lot of Aegean, Western Anatolian influence moved up the boot of Italy as the result of Greek colonization and perhaps even before. We shall see.


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    @Palermo Trapana,

    The paper was discussed in the Etruscan thread. I have started a new thread.

    Ancient genomes from a rural site in Imperial Rome (1st–3rd cent. CE): a genetic jun (eupedia.com)

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    Ancient DNA of Roman Danubian Frontier and Slavic Migrations (Olalde 2021)

    A certain reclamation for local people is assumed for Balkan by Jovialis, this conclusion seems baseless. New emigrants came from north and destroyed the big military cities of Danube. This changed the genetic composition of the Balkans not the local reclamation.


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    Quote Originally Posted by blevins13 View Post
    A certain reclamation for local people is assumed for Balkan by Jovialis, this conclusion seems baseless. New emigrants came from north and destroyed the big military cities of Danube. This changed the genetic composition of the Balkans not the local reclamation.


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    As always, I suggest you READ the paper, including all of the Supplement. The admixture analyses using various methods are extremely clear; that's if one can understand them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    @Palermo Trapana,

    The paper was discussed in the Etruscan thread. I have started a new thread.

    Ancient genomes from a rural site in Imperial Rome (1st–3rd cent. CE): a genetic jun (eupedia.com)
    Angela: Ok, thanks, I have been away for about a week so just catching up with threads. I tried the link and it is not showing up in the thread, could be a problem in my end.

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    Ancient DNA of Roman Danubian Frontier and Slavic Migrations (Olalde 2021)

    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    As always, I suggest you READ the paper, including all of the Supplement. The admixture analyses using various methods are extremely clear; that's if one can understand them.
    Read the paper, can you pinpoint where this reclamation of local people was elaborated.

    If this mean reclamation

    “ Between ~250-500 CE, we detect gene-flow from Central/Northern Europe harboring admixtures of Iron Age steppe groups. Tenth-century CE individuals harbored North- Eastern European-related ancestry likely associated to Slavic-speakers, which contributed >20% of the ancestry of today's Balkan people.”

    than reclamation it is.



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    Quote Originally Posted by blevins13 View Post
    Read the paper, can you pinpoint where this reclamation of local people was elaborated.

    If this mean reclamation

    “ Between ~250-500 CE, we detect gene-flow from Central/Northern Europe harboring admixtures of Iron Age steppe groups. Tenth-century CE individuals harbored North- Eastern European-related ancestry likely associated to Slavic-speakers, which contributed >20% of the ancestry of today's Balkan people.”

    than reclamation it is.



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    The misunderstanding is that Jovialis meant "before the slavic invasions and after the fall of the Roman empire", since the paper clearly states that, as far as the evidence goes, those Anatolians didn't leave any detectable genetic trace in future generations; He didn't mean modern Balkans are 100% descendants from Iron age ones.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leopoldo Leone View Post
    The misunderstanding is that Jovialis meant "before the slavic invasions and after the fall of the Roman empire", since the paper clearly states that, as far as the evidence goes, those Anatolians didn't leave any detectable genetic trace in future generations; He didn't mean modern Balkans are 100% descendants from Iron age ones.
    Probably the best place to look for them is the Roman cities that endured the collapse. In Balkans, Constantinople or Thessaloniki.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Palermo Trapani View Post
    Angela: Ok, thanks, I have been away for about a week so just catching up with threads. I tried the link and it is not showing up in the thread, could be a problem in my end.
    Try it again with this link:
    https://www.eupedia.com/forum/thread...-a-genetic-jun

    If not, go to Iron Age and Antiquity section under Paleogenetics. I found it there.

    Sorry for the inconvenience.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    Try it again with this link:
    https://www.eupedia.com/forum/thread...-a-genetic-jun

    If not, go to Iron Age and Antiquity section under Paleogenetics. I found it there.

    Sorry for the inconvenience.
    Angela: No problem, thanks for the quick response. No inconvenience at all. Cheers.

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    @Angela, and Leopoldo
    Yes, that's what I meant, I was referring to the Balkan population prior to the Slavic.

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    These Iron Age Balkanites are part of the Pan-Mediterranean genetic continuum, that existed in Antiquity and still exists today. Yes, they were augmented by Slavic input, but they're still mediterranean people imo.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    Thank you for injecting some sanity to this discussion. I totally agree with you that this study totally oversimplifies 3500 years of migrations into the Balkans into Mycenians + Eastern slavs. Meanwhile subsequent migrations of different Greek tribes are ignored that might have had progressively more steppe admix. Could it that the Modern Eastern slav component be attributed or be a proxy for more steppe admix from Thracians and other Northern migrants during the 2000 years before the slav migrations?
    Let's see:
    - The Doric colonists of Mainland Greece who were accepted into Ionian league of Anatolia and later colonized small proportion of Iberia end up plotting genetically in the Mycenaean cluster.
    - Two Thracians, one in the Bronze Age and one of the Iron Age are more similar to Mycenaeans than even most Southern Italians, best described as Mycenaean-population with a pull towards modern Tuscans.
    - Serbian Late Antiquity samples are also similar to the 2 Thracians but with a somewhat northern shift due to more recent northern alleles brought by Euro-groups like Celts and maybe minor geographical differences.

    Any rational person can comprehend this in what it actually implies. If you turn out to be right, it's just a matter of luck nothing else.

    I am sorry but the end of the discussion was always depended on the ancient and medieval DNA. You thought R1a rates were the total markers of the Slavic impact like 10% of Greece to 25% of Croatia, huh?
    Last edited by ihype02; 05-09-21 at 23:43.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovialis View Post
    These Iron Age Balkanites are part of the Pan-Mediterranean genetic continuum, that existed in Antiquity and still exists today. Yes, they were augmented by Slavic input, but they're still mediterranean people imo.
    These guys tell a different story.

    https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2...inland-greeks/


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    Quote Originally Posted by blevins13 View Post
    These guys tell a different story.

    https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2...inland-greeks/


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    Sorry but this link doesn't cut it for me.

    Let's talk about that the new paper says,

    "To explore whether this Northeastern European ancestry signal persisted in present-day Balkan and Aegean populations, we attempted to model present day groups by using the same qpAdm model used for the Kuline individuals (Supplementary section 13). Present-day Serbs, Croats and the rest of central/northern Balkan populations yielded a similar ancestral composition as the Kuline individuals, with approximately 50% Northeastern European-related ancestry admixed with ancestry related to Iron Age native Balkan population (Figure 3), implying substantial population continuity in the region over the last 1,000 years. This ancestry signal significantly decreases in more southern groups, but it is still presents in populations from mainland Greece (∼30%) and even the Aegean islands (7-20%)."

    I think it reasonable to say people who could be modelled as majority Balkan_IA/C6-like are more Mediterranean than anything.

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    The final word will be, for me, a comparison with the Greek mainland sample from just before the Slavic migrations, and which will be included in a subsequent paper by, if I'm not mistaken, Lazaridis.

    We will see if we were correct here in saying that Classical Greeks were closer to modern Southern Italians and Island Greeks than are Mainland Greeks, except for some Greeks from the Peloponnese. I also can't wait to see samples in GREEK contexts from Magna Graecia.

    I think where this paper was too general was in not showing the variation in the Peloponnese, for example.

    In addition, the usual suspects continue to over estimate Albanian influence on the Peloponnese.

    Much of the similarity between Albanians and Northern Greeks has much to do with ancient migration BOTH ways as well as just similar proportions of very ancient clusters.

    As to ydna we have always maintained here that contrary to the insistence of some people from the Balkans, what used to be called I2 Dinaric was not ancient in the Balkans, but a marker of the the Slavs.

    R1a is more problematic imo as some is Z93, and may have arrived much before the Slavic migrations, or indeed after them.

    This is the chart provided here at Eupedia, but I don't know, as I have said, the division into the various subclades of R1a, nor do I know how up to date it is. I know there are modern samples from Yfull etc., but, of course, they're not a true scientific sample.
    https://www.eupedia.com/europe/europ...logroups.shtml

    I have to say, though, do these yDna percentages coincide with the high "Slavic admixture" percentages proposed by the paper?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    The final word will be, for me, a comparison with the Greek mainland sample from just before the Slavic migrations, and which will be included in a subsequent paper by, if I'm not mistaken, Lazaridis.

    We will see if we were correct here in saying that Classical Greeks were closer to modern Southern Italians and Island Greeks than are Mainland Greeks, except for some Greeks from the Peloponnese. I also can't wait to see samples in GREEK contexts from Magna Graecia.

    I think where this paper was too general was in not showing the variation in the Peloponnese, for example.

    In addition, the usual suspects continue to over estimate Albanian influence on the Peloponnese.

    Much of the similarity between Albanians and Northern Greeks has much to do with ancient migration BOTH ways as well as just similar proportions of very ancient clusters.

    As to ydna we have always maintained here that contrary to the insistence of some people from the Balkans, what used to be called I2 Dinaric was not ancient in the Balkans, but a marker of the the Slavs.

    R1a is more problematic imo as some is Z93, and may have arrived much before the Slavic migrations, or indeed after them.

    This is the chart provided here at Eupedia, but I don't know, as I have said, the division into the various subclades of R1a, nor do I know how up to date it is. I know there are modern samples from Yfull etc., but, of course, they're not a true scientific sample.
    https://www.eupedia.com/europe/europ...logroups.shtml

    I have to say, though, do these yDna percentages coincide with the high "Slavic admixture" percentages proposed by the paper?
    This BOTH way between Albanian and Greeks sells you short, it is clearly obvious that from Iron Age the migrations in the Balkans has been one way only.


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    A lot will boil down to whether or not classical Greeks got and spread a lot of E-V13 also, because if ancient Greeks had almost none of it, what some people claim, then this would result in modern Greeks being near completely replaced by Albanians and Vlachs. Because there were, after the Early Iron Age, no people which were 100 percent E-V13 in all likelihood. This means you need to at least double the number of incoming people which introduced this haplogroup. Then you have the more clearly Central and Eastern European haplogroups as well, which would mean, even for many islands, that nothing ancient Greek would be left.
    That's not what I think happened, even if a lot of the patrilineages were later introduced by Albanians, Vlachs and Slavs in particular. The haplogroups will be also very important because the autosomal differences of some migrants might not have been that big at all. So uniparentals will be the safer bet even.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post

    We will see if we were correct here in saying that Classical Greeks were closer to modern Southern Italians and Island Greeks than are Mainland Greeks, except for some Greeks from the Peloponnese. I also can't wait to see samples in GREEK contexts from Magna Graecia.

    I think where this paper was too general was in not showing the variation in the Peloponnese, for example.
    Maniotes and Tsakonians are the closests Modern Greeks compared to ancient Greeks but still less close than Calabrians and Sicilians.

    Agamemnon's PCA:

    He has a better updated version of PCA with actual Maniotes overlapping with Abruzzes which I can't seem to find.

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    edit...........

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    Quote Originally Posted by lacreme View Post
    I picked the samples from the modern+ancient scaled averages from the relevant g25 calculator and the calculator itself from
    vahaduo[dot]genetics[dot]ovh

    I suppose it's this?



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    Quote Originally Posted by ihype02 View Post
    Thanks Lacreme the fit it's tighter. The samples have different names in other calculators.

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    Feel like we lost Charles along the way. Darwin that Charles. People better scratch their heads on this.

    I will have to disagree with Angela on what it will come down to. It will not come down to Magna Grecia or Italy, the question of Greeks (someone for the love of God define what they mean by this term) will come down to ancient samples from Mainland Greece and Western Anatolia/Asia Minor.

    Also, not sure who mentioned, we can not have genetics without archeological and historical context. But for sure they must have missed the point that these particular sites from the paper we are even discussing, were razed to the ground, with ashes remaining, and ashes don't support people. So clearly there was genetic replacement in Serbia, as even the very biased(or lazy, my complaints about the models, shared by many Slavic fora members) authors had to concede; by putting into a couple of categories, Slavic like, and IA Balkanites(separate entities).

    Coincidentally, both mainland Greeks and Albanians are the closest to these IA Balkanites(refer to the PCA), so might as well stop the pen measurement fellow neighbours. Until we have a appropriately era spanning samples from mainland Greece we are all taking the gamble of playing the fool on the internet, for no more than personal bias and ego.

    I would agree with Riverman, such a hypothesis of replacement could be the case. But it would have to be tested.
    From the modern sampling POV, looking at G2a and J2a, there is for sure some level of continuity between Ancient and Modern Greeks. Whoever denies that is not to be taken seriously.

    Now, the real issue is defining what we mean by Greek. I feel we, as well as past authors, did us and themselves a disfavor. And some Greek members with good self interest preserving intention still unintentionally sabotage themselves. There is a level of continuity with replacement and intermixing from Minoan to Mycenean. Do I think Minoans were the Greeks we are talking about, not personally. If we take then Myceneans, these IE speaking people, till today my gamble would be there is partial continuity, whatever satisfies the label of continuity and discontinuity is subjective for that matter.

    Now, are Modern Greeks mirror images of Ancient Greeks, these Myceneans? No. Just no.

    That's how evolution works, survival of the fittest, continuity, genetic introgression, some amount of replacement, intermixing, niche specializations, changing tech and economies leading to demographic shifts, wars, plagues, famines, founder effects etc etc etc...

    Shout out to Darwin.
    And you best believe I hope our future generations are not like us, but continue evolving and mixing to fit whatever hellhole we leave for them, as we ourselves found.

    PS: I like the pots not people, feel good stuff, Hellenism for that matter had a lot to do with pots not people, from the military Phalanx reaching India, to scripts reaching up to Etruria. We can discuss superior ideas, while leaving whatever genetic superiority baggage we may hold at the door. Hellenism for me was the cool stuff, for which we are even bothering discussing, or even able to, such matters in the 21st century.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ihype02 View Post
    Maniotes and Tsakonians are the closests Modern Greeks compared to ancient Greeks but still less close than Calabrians and Sicilians.

    Agamemnon's PCA:

    He has a better updated version of PCA with actual Maniotes overlapping with Abruzzes which I can't seem to find.
    It was already clear from the paper on the Peloponnese that the Maniotes, and after them the Tsakonians, were very close to Southern Italians.

    I've been saying for eight years, mainly based on analyses done by Dienekes which have been all but forgotten, that Southern Italians would turn out to be closer to the ancient Greeks than modern mainland Greeks.* The Island Greeks are also close. I didn't need to wait for Agamemnon to figure it out.

    When I think how they excoriated him for being wrong about about so many things. Well, he was wrong about some, everybody is, but it's actually extraordinary how spot on he was about so many things, and all without ancient dna. There's no substitute for a fine, analytical mind and superior statistical skills.

    *That doesn't necessarily mean, of course, that it's all down to Magna Graecia. Different ethnicities can plot near one another not because one completely descends from the other, but because they share similar proportions of ancient clusters. Likewise, it doesn't mean that there wasn't some gene flow from one to the other. Or, they might have been rather similar even before the migration of one to the other.

    That's what ancient dna is for....

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    I mean we could beat the skeleton of the horse that died last winter, or actually remember all the back and forths here that ended up with gaslighting and bringing Nazis up for who knows what reasons.

    eupedia.com/forum/threads/34414-Genetic-Origins-of-Minoans-and-Mycenaeans

    That is an article you first shared, from the very same person you are saying is going to put this topic to rest soon , Lazaridis.

    Quote Originally Posted by Archetype0ne View Post
    sniped irrelevant stuff



    2 Things I take away are:

    1. Even North Italians and Albanians seem to be related to a) Myceneans and b) Lasinthi Minoans as much as mainland Greeks, however less than Greek Islanders / Sicilians.


    snips all over






    Now if we are going to criticize PCAs fine. Lets be consistent. Rely on authorities in the field. Fine, lets be consistent.
    Continuity, this whole paper dealt with that and a mere ctrl f can get one the conclusion in seconds or just a basic look at the graphic.

    Jovialis at the time even provided some conference proceeding video, where Lazaridis explains why South Italy being cold as far as continuity with these source populations was not that peculiar.

    Then you have the old IBD paper about Albanians and Italians having the highest in Europe...

    Coincidentally, look at the graphs from this very paper:



    Not even sure how one interprets IX-XII Central Italians being shifted towards Early Empire NE individuals compared to modern Albanians and Greeks...

    Once someone wraps their head around that without some borderline ridiculous excuses then let me know.

    And no, Mordovians are likely not the case.
    Neither sex* biased autosomal gene flow, unless somehow Greeks and Albanians only managed to marry Slavic women while having degrees of magnitude less Y DNA impact, after two plagues and Alans, Avars, Huns and Slavs literally laying waste to the Danube.

    Whatever the answer is I do not know.

    Either way, I will catch up with the thread tomorrow, have a gn.

    *Edit:word.
    Last edited by Archetype0ne; 06-09-21 at 20:11.

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