I have to agree with the other users here the authors seem to have done a poor job modelling modern balkan people.Why would they ever use ancient Greeks as a proxy to calculate the pre slavic component in modern South slavs??? Why aren't they at the very least using the Iron age Bulgarian sample, the HRV samples and some of the scythian Moldovan samples which were clearly of balkan origins??And then they are using mordovians to measure the northeastern European component instead of Ukrainians or Bellarussians who seem to be the "purest" slavs around
Once again, if you had read the paper, you would know that Bulgarian Iron Age clusters close to ancient Greeks and they attempted to model modern Balkanites using the Bulgarian Iron Age sample, among others.
"First, we attempted to model the ancestry of present-day Balkan populations as one-way models with different groups whose ancestry derived entirely from pre-Roman Balkans populations:
Croatia_MBA_EIA (Mathieson
et al., 2018), the cluster of Roman-period individuals from Timacum Minus and Viminacium modelled in supplementary section 12.1
(Balkans Iron Age cluster)
, and 400 BCE - 200 CE individuals from the
Greek colony of Empúries (Spain) with fully Aegean-related ancestry (
Greek_Empuries 14) (
Table ST8).
These three groups acted as representatives of northern, central and southern Balkans-related ancestry, respectively. If the 1-way models provided a good fit to the data, this would indicate genetic continuity in the Balkans since prior to the Roman period and no significant long-term demographic impact of the Slavic migration or other population movements in the region over the past ~2,000 years. However,
all the models failed with extremely low P-values, strongly rejecting population continuity in the Balkans since pre-Roman times, and documenting a history of mixture."
"We then tried to model the present-day groups as a
two-way model. Similar to the modelling of 10
th century individuals from Kuline (supplementary section 12.1), we try models with
one local Balkans source (either Balkans Iron Age cluster, Croatia_MBA_EIA or Greek_Empuries), and
a proxy for Northeastern European-related ancestry (either Russia_Ingria_IA or present-day populations from Eastern Europe).
"A model having
Balkans Iron Age cluster (as the local source)
and Russian_Ingria_IA (as the Northeastern European-related source)
fitted for three present-day Balkan populations,
Hungary, Croatian and Serbian with P-value>0.01 (
Table ST9), as well as for the Kuline 10th c. CE with almost identical mixture proportions as in the 1240k dataset (supplementary section 12.1).
Let's remember, of course, that the
Balkans Iron Age cluster was about 2/3 Mycenaean ancient Greek, with the remaining 33% being Slovenian Iron Age.
That explains the fact that in the PCA some Serbs and Hungarians are in between the Kuline cluster and the NCE cluster.
Now, I seem to recall from somewhere that the Slovenian Iron Age sample is close to Croatian Middle Bronze Age, but
However, this is
only found in Hungary, Croatia and Serbia, because they're the only populations which can be fitted with Balkans Iron Age Cluster.
For Bulgaria, Romania, Albania and Greece...
"However,
this model did not fit the ancestry of the remaining more southern (except Romanian) populations, who instead required a more local source represented by Greek_Empuries, and present-day Mordovian or Russian as proxy for Northeastern European-related ancestry. These models fit the ancestry for the remaining Balkans populations (
Table ST10;
Table ST11), with ~30-55% Northeastern European-related ancestry."
Albanians come out needing about 38% Mordovian or Russian ancestry, similar to Greek Macedonia.
Now, if in the future a more proximate source is found, these percentages may change, but if it is a sample closer in space to the Balkans, it would seem to me that the percentages might even be higher.
And no, the Ukrainians are not the "purest" Slavs. They're too far south of that. Plus, because of the mass depopulation of the area caused by the Tartars, the Ukraine was re-settled by Slavs from all over the east. They wouldn't at all be representative of the Slavs of the early Medieval period.