Genetic study The origin and legacy of the Etruscans through a 2000-year archeogenomic time transec

[Riverman]

As I've pointed out in a prior post, the yDna of Toscana does not support a 20% Germanic admixture, so modeling Early Medieval Tuscans in that way makes no sense to me.

You need to look at the uniparentals of that time, for being able to tell whether they support 20 percent Germanic admixture at that time. Also, you don't know the exact patrilinear composition of the different Germanic groups, it might be just about subclades in some cases.

But I have a more general question which I raised already elsehwere, but nobody really know the answer and probably you do: There were large scale evacuations from the Danubian provinces, most notably from Noricum, but also Pannonia etc., of which some are supposed to have ended up in Northern Italia. Many Greeks and Balkan people fled to Southern Italy, which being proving by historical sources, place and surnames as well. But do you know where these refugees and resettled Roman provincials from the Danubian zone did settle down? Is there any solid evidence as to where in Italy they ended up? Even if the sources exaggerated the movement, we're still speaking about many tens of thousands of people, which could have shifted the populations in a regional or at least local level.
Similarly, the Langobards too brought with them a large portion of local Roman provincials too. These people would have been Northern from the Italian perspective, but not really Germanic in their majority, having a high portion of E-V13 carriers presumably by the way. In Southern Italy its easier to follow them, somewhat, but in Northern and Central Italy?

 

[ihype02]

You need to look at the uniparentals of that time, for being able to tell whether they support 20 percent Germanic admixture at that time. Also, you don't know the exact patrilinear composition of the different Germanic groups, it might be just about subclades in some cases.

Germanic invasion was more male-dominated, so you would still need more than 20% Germanic Y-DNA for that autosomal impact. And if Early Medieval Tuscany had 25% Germanic Y DNA, how much did Northern Italy had? 40%?

Theodemir was succeeded by his son Theodoric in 471, who was forced to compete with Theodoric Strabo, leader of the Thracian Goths, for the leadership of his people.^[202] Fearing the threat posed by Theodoric to Constantinople, the Eastern Roman emperor Zeno ordered Theodoric to invade Italy in 488. By 493,^[170] Theodoric had conquered all of Italy from the Scirian Odoacer, whom he killed with his own hands;^[202] he subsequently formed the Ostrogothic Kingdom. Theodoric settled his entire people in Italy, estimated at 100,000–200,000, mostly in the northern part of the country, and ruled the country very efficiently. The Goths in Italy constituted a small minority of the population in the country.^[147] Intermarriage between Goths and Romans were forbidden, and Romans were also forbidden from carrying arms. Nevertheless, the Roman majority was treated fairly.^[202]


This includes a small proportion of France and a part of Balkans. Modern Tuscans are northern shifted than Medieval Tuscans. How did the Germanic lines decrease?

 

[Riverman]

Germanic invasion was more male-dominated, so you would still need more than 20% Germanic Y-DNA for that autosomal impact. And if Early Medieval Tuscany had 25% Germanic Y DNA, how much did Northern Italy had? 40%?

Theodemir was succeeded by his son Theodoric in 471, who was forced to compete with Theodoric Strabo, leader of the Thracian Goths, for the leadership of his people.^[202] Fearing the threat posed by Theodoric to Constantinople, the Eastern Roman emperor Zeno ordered Theodoric to invade Italy in 488. By 493,^[170] Theodoric had conquered all of Italy from the Scirian Odoacer, whom he killed with his own hands;^[202] he subsequently formed the Ostrogothic Kingdom. Theodoric settled his entire people in Italy, estimated at 100,000–200,000, mostly in the northern part of the country, and ruled the country very efficiently. The Goths in Italy constituted a small minority of the population in the country.^[147] Intermarriage between Goths and Romans were forbidden, and Romans were also forbidden from carrying arms. Nevertheless, the Roman majority was treated fairly.^[202]


This includes a small proportion of France and a part of Balkans. Modern Tuscans are northern shifted than Medieval Tuscans. How did the Germanic lines decrease?

We're still talking about a black box without being able to look into it. Its quite obvious something is missing from the puzzle and it might be related to migrations within Italy and from non-old Germanic people migrating into Italy, as well as rural resurgance of local elements.

 

[Angela]

You need to look at the uniparentals of that time, for being able to tell whether they support 20 percent Germanic admixture at that time. Also, you don't know the exact patrilinear composition of the different Germanic groups, it might be just about subclades in some cases.

But I have a more general question which I raised already elsehwere, but nobody really know the answer and probably you do: There were large scale evacuations from the Danubian provinces, most notably from Noricum, but also Pannonia etc., of which some are supposed to have ended up in Northern Italia. Many Greeks and Balkan people fled to Southern Italy, which being proving by historical sources, place and surnames as well. But do you know where these refugees and resettled Roman provincials from the Danubian zone did settle down? Is there any solid evidence as to where in Italy they ended up? Even if the sources exaggerated the movement, we're still speaking about many tens of thousands of people, which could have shifted the populations in a regional or at least local level.
Similarly, the Langobards too brought with them a large portion of local Roman provincials too. These people would have been Northern from the Italian perspective, but not really Germanic in their majority, having a high portion of E-V13 carriers presumably by the way. In Southern Italy its easier to follow them, somewhat, but in Northern and Central Italy?

Sorry, I don't follow the logic of the first paragraph. The authors of the paper claim that a 20% Germanic admixture was required to create the Medieval Tuscans, and that there is continuity from that point tothe present. Certainly, if you look at the graph based on qpAdm the Russia Yamnaya portion is the same as Iron Age Etruscan levels. Yet, the Germanic yDna DRASTICALLY reduces? I would remind you that this in CONQUEROR YDna. These men would have had preferential access to nubile women, voluntary on the part of the women or otherwise. Their yDna should have INCREASED as a proportion of the population in Toscana instead of decreasing. This won't save your argument.

 

[Riverman]

Sorry, I don't follow the logic of the firstparagraph. The authors of the paper claim that a 20% Germanic admixture was requiredto create the Medieval Tuscans, and that there is continuity from that point tothe present. Certainly, if you look at the graph based on qpAdm the RussiaYamnaya portion is the same as Iron Age Etruscan levels. Yet, the Germanic yDnaDRASTICALLY reduces? I would remind you that this in CONQUEROR YDna. These menwould have had preferential access to nubile women, voluntary on the part ofthe women or otherwise. Their yDna should have INCREASED as a proportion of thepopulation in Toscana instead of decreasing. This won't save your argument.

I have no strong opinion on the matter, I just say that the Germanic contribution was significant, but whether it was that big even in Tuscany is indeed debatable.

Did you ever encounter something about the Roman provincials which being resettled in different periods of the very late Roman Empire and by Langobards to Italia? I mainly have evidence for their departure from the Danubian provinces, but not where they actually landed in Italy.

 

[Angela]

I have no strong opinion on the matter, I just say that the Germanic contribution was significant, but whether it was that big even in Tuscany is indeed debatable.

Did you ever encounter something about the Roman provincials which being resettled in different periods of the very late Roman Empire and by Langobards to Italia? I mainly have evidence for their departure from the Danubian provinces, but not where they actually landed in Italy.

Could you provide the contemporary sources for all your points in the prior post which describe them, and the academic analysis of likelihood which you're using? I will then dig out my texts and papers for comparison.

The Germanic contribution in Italy can be tracked through the yDna.

The autosomal contribution would be less than that.

Nowhere except the far northeast is it "significant" in my estimation, and in those areas it is "artificially" augmented by the people in the territories we gained after World War I.

"In the Treaty of Saint-Germain (1919), Italy gained Trentino, part of Slovene-speaking Gorizia, Trieste, the German-speaking South Tirol, and partly Croatian-speaking Istria.

So, I would put the actual invasion era "Germanic" yDna probably at 20% even in the Veneto, and the autosomal would be less than that.

 

[Riverman]

Could you provide the contemporary sources for all your points in the prior post which describe them, and the academic analysis of likelihood which you're using? I will then dig out my texts and papers for comparison.

Sometimes these evacuations were organized by the authorities. Severinus (see above, p. 73) organized the evacuation of cities that could not be defended, and in the end Odoacer apparently had the whole Roman population of Noricum (including the relics of St. Severinus) evacuated to Italy. Some cities in the Balkans seem to have been deliberately evacuated in the sixth and early seventh century. In addition, large numbers of Romans in the Danube provinces fled south, to Thessalonica and to the islands in the Aegeans. The bishop of Patras and his flock moved from the Gulf of Corinth right across to Sicily; while the numbers of Greek-speakers in Sicily, southern Italy and Rome increased dramatically. Of the first eight Popes of the eighth century, only one was Italian: the rest were either from the Greek-speaking East or born to parents who were. It is difficult to think of another period before the twentieth century in which migrants, evacuees and refugees played such an important part in the life of Europe.

From Edward James, Europe's Barbarians AD 200-600.

Obviously not the whole population of Noricum was evacuated, but a significant portion of it was. These movements too might have caused a whole lot of shifts on the regional level. In comparison to the Italian locals, they should have been more Celtic-Germanic shifted, but with a wider range of haplogroups, especially a lot more E-V13.

The Crypta Balbi E-V13, coming from a Central European cultural context, but being more Italian-like genetically, might be a Roman provincial or a descendent of one, which was an evacuated provincial earlier or moved with Germanics. His subclade is more common in other regions of Europe and this was the context:

An intriguing haplogroup observed in Late Antiquity is I-M253 (I1), which is quite common in present-
day northern Europe (at 25-40% frequency in Scandinavia)(75?77), relatively rare in mainland Italy
(~4%) and completely absent in Sardinia (78). It is estimated that the I-M253 haplogroup arose 3,200-
5,000 years ago in northern Europe (79), so the presence of this haplogroup in Imperial Rome could
possibly reflect migration from the north into central Italy. R110, the individual who carries the I-M253
comes from Crypta Balbi, a site that used to be a theater courtyard in the Imperial era and transformed for
other purposes in Late Antiquity. Interestingly, Lombard-associated ornaments have been excavated at
this site, pointing to connections with central Europe. Additionally, five of the seven individuals from this
site, including R110, are classified by ChromoPainter into a cluster with more haplotype sharing with
central/northern Europeans. Therefore, the I-M253 haplotype observed in Late Antiquity is consistent
with the increasing genetic influence from central European populations detected by other analyses (e.g.,
PCA, f-statistics, qpAdm).

https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aay6826

 

[torzio]

Germanic invasion was more male-dominated, so you would still need more than 20% Germanic Y-DNA for that autosomal impact. And if Early Medieval Tuscany had 25% Germanic Y DNA, how much did Northern Italy had? 40%?

Theodemir was succeeded by his son Theodoric in 471, who was forced to compete with Theodoric Strabo, leader of the Thracian Goths, for the leadership of his people.^[202] Fearing the threat posed by Theodoric to Constantinople, the Eastern Roman emperor Zeno ordered Theodoric to invade Italy in 488. By 493,^[170] Theodoric had conquered all of Italy from the Scirian Odoacer, whom he killed with his own hands;^[202] he subsequently formed the Ostrogothic Kingdom. Theodoric settled his entire people in Italy, estimated at 100,000–200,000, mostly in the northern part of the country, and ruled the country very efficiently. The Goths in Italy constituted a small minority of the population in the country.^[147] Intermarriage between Goths and Romans were forbidden, and Romans were also forbidden from carrying arms. Nevertheless, the Roman majority was treated fairly.^[202]


This includes a small proportion of France and a part of Balkans. Modern Tuscans are northern shifted than Medieval Tuscans. How did the Germanic lines decrease?

You are assuming the ostrogoths ( Eastern Goths ) have still a high proportion of Germanic still , even though they spent over 400 years living on the northern shores of the black sea, mixing with sarmatians and thracians

The VisiGoths ( western Goths ) are the "purest " Germanic Goths who left for Spain from an east-germanic/polish lands.

 

[torzio]

You need to look at the uniparentals of that time, for being able to tell whether they support 20 percent Germanic admixture at that time. Also, you don't know the exact patrilinear composition of the different Germanic groups, it might be just about subclades in some cases.

But I have a more general question which I raised already elsehwere, but nobody really know the answer and probably you do: There were large scale evacuations from the Danubian provinces, most notably from Noricum, but also Pannonia etc., of which some are supposed to have ended up in Northern Italia. Many Greeks and Balkan people fled to Southern Italy, which being proving by historical sources, place and surnames as well. But do you know where these refugees and resettled Roman provincials from the Danubian zone did settle down? Is there any solid evidence as to where in Italy they ended up? Even if the sources exaggerated the movement, we're still speaking about many tens of thousands of people, which could have shifted the populations in a regional or at least local level.
Similarly, the Langobards too brought with them a large portion of local Roman provincials too. These people would have been Northern from the Italian perspective, but not really Germanic in their majority, having a high portion of E-V13 carriers presumably by the way. In Southern Italy its easier to follow them, somewhat, but in Northern and Central Italy?

what are the years you are talking about ?...........Noricum ( eastern Austria ) was not germanic until after the western Roman empire fell ...........they would still have been a mix of celtic-dacian-pannonian people

 

[Riverman]

what are the years you are talking about ?...........Noricum ( eastern Austria ) was not germanic until after the western Roman empire fell ...........they would still have been a mix of celtic-dacian-pannonian people

The basic would have been a mix of Celtic-Pannonian with Imperial Roman admixture, but even before the province was collapsing, Germanics came into the region, lived and settled there. Just not as whole tribes. Similar to the situation in the late Roman Serbian context. Its hard to estimate their numbers, but they surely were present among the inhabitants of the province.

 

[ihype02]

You are assuming the ostrogoths ( Eastern Goths ) have still a high proportion of Germanic still , even though they spent over 400 years living on the northern shores of the black sea, mixing with sarmatians and thracians
The VisiGoths ( western Goths ) are the "purest " Germanic Goths who left for Spain from an east-germanic/polish lands.

I believe most of their ancestry was Germanic.

Visigoths are descended from the same Goths as Ostrogoths are, they were not pure either. Anyways the "20% Germanic" does not make sense even more now as "Germanic" people who were below 5% in all of Italy were not even pure Germanic either, at least the Ostrogoths.

 

[torzio]

I believe most of their ancestry was Germanic.

Visigoths are descended from the same Goths as Ostrogoths are, they were not pure either. Anyways the "20% Germanic" does not makes sense even more now as "Germanic" people who were below 5% in all of Italy were not even pure Germanic either, at least the Ostrogoths.

the Visi and Osto Goths where once one tribe that split ( different kings , different family line ) in poland before they moved to either the black sea or other

 

[Riverman]

I believe most of their ancestry was Germanic.

Visigoths are descended from the same Goths as Ostrogoths are, they were not pure either. Anyways the "20% Germanic" does not makes sense even more now as "Germanic" people who were below 5% in all of Italy were not even pure Germanic either, at least the Ostrogoths.

The impact of the Langobards should have been even bigger than that of the Goths and there were other Germanic movements as well. Its also noticeable that the Germanic shift started even before the Goths, because of ever larger numbers of Germanics being in Italia, while the flow from the East was more restricted, especially in the North and centre, in comparison to the centuries before. It became more clear with the partition of the Empire, when the Eastern provinces started to concentrate on the new centre, instead of the migrants and slaves from the East moving West, to Italy. As soon as that split happened, the flow from the Western provinces became proportionally much more important than before. This included slaves, general migrants and soldiers.
Also there were the Normans in the South of Italy and some constant trickling in of French and Germans in Medieval times.

 

[torzio]

The basic would have been a mix of Celtic-Pannonian with Imperial Roman admixture, but even before the province was collapsing, Germanics came into the region, lived and settled there. Just not as whole tribes. Similar to the situation in the late Roman Serbian context. Its hard to estimate their numbers, but they surely were present among the inhabitants of the province.

only if you use the Bastarnae as a purely germanic race, which they where not ...........they where mixed with celts from poland and a small proportion of west-balts .............they eventually mixed with sarmatians and later moved to modern macedonia and serbia

 

[torzio]

The impact of the Langobards should have been even bigger than that of the Goths and there were other Germanic movements as well. Its also noticeable that the Germanic shift started even before the Goths, because of ever larger numbers of Germanics being in Italia, while the flow from the East was more restricted, especially in the North and centre, in comparison to the centuries before. It became more clear with the partition of the Empire, when the Eastern provinces started to concentrate on the new centre, instead of the migrants and slaves from the East moving West, to Italy. As soon as that split happened, the flow from the Western provinces became proportionally much more important than before. This included slaves, general migrants and soldiers.
Also there were the Normans in the South of Italy and some constant trickling in of French and Germans in Medieval times.

goths where only in Italy for about 100 years before the Lombards replaced them .............but goths left more of a legacy in regards to architecture etc than the lombards did.......the lombards left more of a genetic trail

The goths in Italy capital was Ravenna and the lombards capital was Pavia

 

[torzio]

I believe most of their ancestry was Germanic.

Visigoths are descended from the same Goths as Ostrogoths are, they were not pure either. Anyways the "20% Germanic" does not makes sense even more now as "Germanic" people who were below 5% in all of Italy were not even pure Germanic either, at least the Ostrogoths.

I will check my book .....The well spring of the Goths

 

[Angela]

From Edward James, Europe's Barbarians AD 200-600.

Obviously not the whole population of Noricum was evacuated, but a significant portion of it was. These movements too might have caused a whole lot of shifts on the regional level. In comparison to the Italian locals, they should have been more Celtic-Germanic shifted, but with a wider range of haplogroups, especially a lot more E-V13.

The Crypta Balbi E-V13, coming from a Central European cultural context, but being more Italian-like genetically, might be a Roman provincial or a descendent of one, which was an evacuated provincial earlier or moved with Germanics. His subclade is more common in other regions of Europe and this was the context:


https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aay6826

Strangely, I can't find that quote in the online version of the book. Regardless, no offense, but I think it's largely irrelevant. The ROMAN population is different from the ROMANIZED population. The Romanized population were largely Celts. How many ACTUAL ROMANS do you think were in provinces like Noricum and Pannonia?

Why would you think that such a small group would change the autosomal profile of a country with a population of millions? Also, why would you think they were all "Northern" like? The non-Germanic population at Szolad ranged from Tuscan like with a bit of Iberian like ancestry to Greek Islander like.

 

[Riverman]

Strangely, I can't find that quote in the online version of the book. Regardless, no offense, but I think it's largely irrelevant. The ROMAN population is different from the ROMANIZED population. The Romanized population were largely Celts. How many ACTUAL ROMANS do you think were in provinces like Noricum and Pannonia?

First I think a lot of Romans from other provinces were Noricum and Pannonia, secondly they were all Roman citizens and especially the urban inhabitants seem to have fled South en masse. You see it in the archaeological record, with a sudden decrease of habitation at many sites. I would follow the records in this case, which are quite clear that a large portion of the provincial Romans fled to Italy. They must have numbered many tens of thousands, regardless of the total percentage which moved out, which can be debated.

Why would you think that such a small group would change the autosomal profile of a country with a population of millions? Also, why would you think they were all "Northern" like? The non-Germanic population at Szolad ranged from Tuscan like with a bit of Iberian like ancestry to Greek Islander like.

Like I said, the suspicious E-V13 from Crypta Balbi was NOT Northern, but Italian-like anyway, so you're right, a large portion would have been not that different from Italian inhabitants genetically. However, on average, they would be somewhat more Northern shifted than Italians, because of the stronger Celto-Romance/Pannonian-Dacian background they had, in comparison to many Italian provinces, which were more South Eastern shifted.
I think they would have ranged from Near Easterners, to typical Italian inhabitants, to Pannonian, Celtic and Germanic, with everything in between. I doubt they were more homogeneous than the Serbian samples, rather to the contrary.

But regardless of how many they were, they being noticeable, mentioned in various sources, so the question is: If they moved out, to Italy, where did they end up? Just dispersed throughout the country?

Severinus also supposedly prophesied the destruction of Asturis (perhaps Klosterneuburg [de]), Austria, by the Huns under Attila. He established refugee centers for people displaced by the invasion, and founded monasteries to re-establish spirituality and preserve learning in the stricken region.^[1]

He died in his monastic cell at Favianae while singing Psalm 150. Six years after his death, his monks were driven from their abbey, and his body was taken to Italy, where it was at first kept in the Castel dell'Ovo, Naples, then eventually interred at the Benedictine monastery rededicated to him, the Abbey of San Severino in the city of Naples.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severinus_of_Noricum

 

[ihype02]

the Visi and Osto Goths where once one tribe that split ( different kings , different family line ) in poland before they moved to either the black sea or other

Visigoths and Ostrogoths entered Italy in the same century, while Visigoths left Italy for Spain.

 

[ihype02]

The impact of the Langobards should have been even bigger than that of the Goths and there were other Germanic movements as well. Its also noticeable that the Germanic shift started even before the Goths, because of ever larger numbers of Germanics being in Italia, while the flow from the East was more restricted, especially in the North and centre, in comparison to the centuries before. It became more clear with the partition of the Empire, when the Eastern provinces started to concentrate on the new centre, instead of the migrants and slaves from the East moving West, to Italy. As soon as that split happened, the flow from the Western provinces became proportionally much more important than before. This included slaves, general migrants and soldiers.
Also there were the Normans in the South of Italy and some constant trickling in of French and Germans in Medieval times.

Langobards assimilated Goths of Italy. I am not sure were WIKI got that "200,000". But the number of Goths seem to be 100,000 in maximum.
With his people, who may have numbered 100,000 persons, Theodoric arrived in Italy in late August 489. In the following year he defeated Odoacer in three pitched battles and won control of nearly all Italy, but he could not take Ravenna, where Odoacer held out for more than three years.

If I remember well for Lombards it was 60,000, I am not sure where I got this number though.
Most of Visigoths left for Spain leaving few thousands. Less than 200,000 people in all of Italy, mostly men. Goths were not pure "Germanic" either.