Are we on the brink of World War III?

[Jovialis]

I am referring to the situation in Ukraine, of course, between the USA & NATO vs Russia.

What are your thoughts?

Frankly, I don't want me and everyone I know to die in a nuclear ICBM strike because of Ukraine.

What are these two psychotic fools, Biden, and Putin dragging the world into?

According to the news, conflict can begin at any minute.

[Jovialis]

This is why I am not a Republican anymore, what an embarrassment. The author of the article talks so nicely about George W. Bush...

Yeah, the same guy that helped to facilitate the outsourcing of our industrial centers to a member of this "Axis of Evil". (i.e. China)

What do you expect from a neo-liberal corporatist mouth piece:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/...-axis-of-evil/

These people are basically an asset of the enemy.

"The capitalists will sell us the rope with which to hang them"

[Angela]

I doubt we are; Biden is all talk.

However, there is no reason it had to come to this. Putin's perception of America's weakness is the reason for the invasion, if indeed it comes.

I totally understand the isolationism which has always been such a potent force in America, although that force waxes and wanes.

There's no doubt in my mind, though, that the increasing rapprochement of Russia and China is very dangerous for America. Our oceans can no longer protect us.

[bigsnake49]

I doubt we are; Biden is all talk.

However, there is no reason it had to come to this. Putin's perception of America's weakness is the reason for the invasion, if indeed it comes.

I totally understand the isolationism which has always been such a potent force in America, although that force waxes and wanes.

There's no doubt in my mind, though, that the increasing rapprochement of Russia and China is very dangerous for America. Our oceans can no longer protect us.

We were never going to defend Ukraine no matter who was the president. Russia was never going to defend Cuba either. Ukraine was never a NATO country and probably never was to be. Putin is just a revisionist that wants to reinstitute the old Soviet Union. Too bad for Ukrainians that pay for the expansionist policies of a Russian dictator. Ukraine should have never given up its nuclear weapons.

[bigsnake49]

This is why I am not a Republican anymore, what an embarrassment. The author of the article talks so nicely about George W. Bush...

Yeah, the same guy that helped to facilitate the outsourcing of our industrial centers to a member of this "Axis of Evil". (i.e. China)

What do you expect from a neo-liberal corporatist mouth piece:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/...-axis-of-evil/

These people are basically an asset of the enemy.

"The capitalists will sell us the rope with which to hang them"

The sellout of America started with Kissinger and Nixon but started accelerating during HW Bush, Clinton and GW Bush.

[Angela]

We were never going to defend Ukraine no matter who was the president. Russia was never going to defend Cuba either. Ukraine was never a NATO country and probably never was to be. Putin is just a revisionist that wants to reinstitute the old Soviet Union. Too bad for Ukrainians that pay for the expansionist policies of a Russian dictator. Ukraine should have never given up its nuclear weapons.

The Bay of Pigs and the Cuban Missile Crisis were both before my time, so my only knowledge of them is from history books. From what I recall from my reading, the Bay of Pigs was before the development of really close ties between Cuba and the U.S.S.R. and could perhaps be said to have precipitated them. The confrontation between Russia and the U.S. under President Kennedy wasn't really over Cuba imo; it was over nuclear missiles being aimed at the U.S. "from" Cuba.

In the end Khrushchev "blinked", but the Kennedy brothers and their aides were apparently terrified it would end in war. Who the hell knows how close Khrushchev came to refusing to back down.

Putin probably feels he's the one who is being threatened now.

I would agree Ukraine shouldn't have given up its nuclear weapons. No nation should leave its security in the hands of other countries.

[EV13SON]

My worry is America is fertile territory for an Authoritarian movement to start taking hold I would argue it almost took place, and this is what usually happens to Democracies and Society when they become corrupt and decadent...We have greed chasing global markets no longer giving a care about creating an educated middle class or investing in their own backyard...our politicians are not beholden to the people instead they are more concerned with chasing donor money for their respective camps and stuffing their own pockets. Our youth seem to be more interested in chasing careers on social media generating ad revenue and or speculating in crypto or NFT's inequality is through the roof too much dumb money floating around looking for a home... We have major divides cropping up in the country the more educated affluent people have fled to what ever city is hot, what's left is many states are only left with salt of the earth types. The big cities are being mismanaged, with crime drug use and poverty, the small towns are breeding grounds for closed minded ignorant views both are turning off moderate voters who are sick with both parties. Race still plays a role in our American conscious, there's always been tension between white and black in America now throw in a growing number of Hispanics and Asians entering the middle class it's all fine if everyone feels they are getting a good slice of pie but the minute you feel your pie is shrinking you're gonna want to fight to stop it from happening. Growing up I hardly ever saw mixed race couple's but I did grow up in a white suburbia outside a large city, never saw Lesbian or Gay couples but now you do, I imagine that is a culture shock to some. But overall I do blame the greed at the top for getting us here, I don't think people would care as much if they felt economically sound, and I get the feeling that many don't feel that way with all the hate and vitriol I see in our politics now, of course I am stuck in an insulated predominantly mid to upper middle class suburbia, I'm hoping it stays that way before I croak Lets hope the Barbarians don't show up at my gates...Now I would think that Autocrats would have a better chance of sparking off WW3 but maybe not, perhaps they would all be satisfied with isolating themselves in their own banana republics, the problem is the populace is going to be heavily oppressed you will have to show undying loyalty to your leader and if he, his cronies or your neighbors don't believe you fit in, sayonara...That's just as bad as a nuclear war for me good luck getting back to Democracy anytime soon...

[Maciamo]

Every time I hear someone mention WWIII and want to say that from a historian's perspective there has already been five world wars, starting with the Seven Years' War (1756-1763), which was the first World War. World War IV was the Cold War (including the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iranian Revolution, the Nicaraguan Revolution, and the Cuban crisis, among others), and World War V was the War on Terror (including Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria and the terrorist attacks in Western countries since 9/11).

But to answer your question, even if NATO declares war on Russia, that would not constitute a world war properly speaking unless at least one other major country decides to side with Russia. Otherwise it's just a war against Putin's Russia. A world war always involve two 'teams" fighting with each others on a global scale. In the Seven Years' War it was Britain, Portugal, Hanover, Prussia on one side against France, Austria, Saxony, Sweden, Spain and the Mughal Empire on the other, with Russia changing side mid-conflict. In 1914-18 it was the Entente Powers against the Central Powers. In 1939-45 it was the Allied vs the Axis. In the Cold War it was NATO and the capitalist countries vs the Communist bloc...

[Northener]

We are closer to ww3 and even the amamargerdon than ever before 11:55...

The horrible slaughter in the Ukrainian wil go on and on in the next days and may be weeks. Putin has already used the most terrible weapons: cluster bombs and vacuum bombs And in the Russian military doctrine even a 'strategic nuclear weapon' is an upscaled option. Anything to overpower resistance.....

What does this mean the pressure on the governments of the NATO and US will rise, "do something to end this misery". And of course no one wants ww3 and even with a nucleair armageddon.

It may be sound weird but during the cold war there were some kind of escapes c.q. hotline kind of stuff arranged. But that has gone.


The whole nuclear arment system is imo over rationalistic. It is built on no one getting it into their head to destroy themselves. So it's rational to consider this will never happen. I'm in that sense 'conservative' (or counter rationalistic) that I think that irrationality is an understated aspect of this all.

Because this system does not take into account crazy dictators who may choose self-destruction over personal failure and who are also not hindered internally (checks and balances). All inky black I admit, but we're closer than ever.

Nevertheless this means also that 'we watch' as human slaughter goes on and on and on!? That's the tragedy behind this all.

Seen the complete arsenal this amargerdon is even a restricted one, but already enough for a complete disaster, a princeton model:



https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a

[EV13SON]

I agree that more countries would need to partner up if I wanted to play out a horrible scenario is Pakistan Iran and China could team up with Russia and form a nuclear axis...if America were to be attacked would it come together? Or would right wing Nationalistic forces see it as an opportunity to carve out their idea of America things could get ugly real quick if you are a maniac and want to sow chaos in the world. Of course I'm trying hard not to buy in to the hysteria no prepping from me, yet...

[Jovialis]

If America were attacked with a nuclear missile, there's a term in geopolitics from the cold war era; M.A.D. (mutually assured destruction)

Also, it doesn't really matter if "other countries come together" because the USA is the true power behind NATO:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...ing-by-country

1. United States ($6.85 Tn)
2. United Kingdom ($655.27 Bn)
3. Germany ($491.32 Bn)
4. France ($477.05 Bn)
5. Italy ($232.81 Bn)
6. Canada ($212.77 Bn)
7. Turkey ($180.00 Bn)
8. Spain ($123.36 Bn)
9. Poland ($113.76 Bn)
10. Netherlands ($113.60 Bn)

The other countries are basically there to maintain the land that the USA will operate their military from. In many ways, they are just military client-states of the U.S. Global Empire.

This canard that only right-wing nationalist forces don't want to get involved is absolutely false. There are other groups that want to know "what is in it for them"?, their hearts are not bleeding for Ukraine:

The Hypocrisy of Support for Ukraine Must Not Harden Black America's Hearts

https://www.newsweek.com/hypocrisy-s...hearts-1687360

What the war in Ukraine could really mean for Black Americans

https://thegrio.com/2022/03/04/what-...ack-americans/

[Tomenable]

But to answer your question, even if NATO declares war on Russia, that would not constitute a world war properly speaking unless at least one other major country decides to side with Russia. Otherwise it's just a war against Putin's Russia. A world war always involve two 'teams" fighting with each others on a global scale. In the Seven Years' War it was Britain, Portugal, Hanover, Prussia on one side against France, Austria, Saxony, Sweden, Spain and the Mughal Empire on the other, with Russia changing side mid-conflict. In 1914-18 it was the Entente Powers against the Central Powers. In 1939-45 it was the Allied vs the Axis. In the Cold War it was NATO and the capitalist countries vs the Communist bloc...

Well, we already have Belarus siding with Russia (OK not a major country perhaps).

Also, Russia covers one-eighth of the world's land surface - probably enough to call it a world war even if Russia fights alone.

[Tomenable]

Have you heard about the Suwalki Gap ??? It might be Putin's next target after Ukraine.

This Russian priest said that - "after this war, it will be possible to drive from Vladivostok to Kaliningrad only through Russian territory":


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjV2czzxBfI&t=679s - priest's warmongering sermon starts at 11 minutes 19 seconds of the video





^^^
Do you know what it means? It means that he is warmongering and suggesting that Russia should invade the Suwalki Gap (Polish area):

[Tomenable]

^^^
Apart from the Suwalki Gap, Putin's Priest wants to "liberate" also:


- Moldavia
- Kazakhstan
- Georgia
- Ukraine
- "and what is going to happen to the Baltic states, you can guess yourself" - he adds at the end of his sermon.


Finally, he asks Russian people to pray "for victory against the Dark Fascist Horde".

[bicicleur 2]

The sellout of America started with Kissinger and Nixon but started accelerating during HW Bush, Clinton and GW Bush.

IMO HW Bush did right, GW Bush is the crook.
He went to war for no other reason than his ego.
He belongs to the club of Putin.

[bicicleur 2]

The best guarantee against WW III is that Putin would be humiliated now.
He should not be granted a victourious exit.
There are many dictators around the world with the same mindset like Putin.
They check their boundaries all the time.

[bicicleur 2]

Some historians see a parallel between todays sanctions against Putin and the sanctions against Germany after WW I.
And some believe that ultimately led to WW II.

https://www.history.com/news/germany...illion%20today

It's not a coincidence that Hitler had the surrender of the French signed in the same wagon where the treaty of Versailles was signed.

Whatever strategy, there is always a risk for failure and escalation.
But doing nothing is almost a guarantee for WW III coming at some point in the future.

[Northener]

The best guarantee against WW III is that Putin would be humiliated now.

He should not be granted a victourious exit.
There are many dictators around the world with the same mindset like Putin.
They check their boundaries all the time.

I think that's like entering a fireworks warehouse with a lighter.

The crucial thing is that, especially a dictator, shows completely unpredictable behavior in the event of a public breakdown. And also an almighty one surrounded by yes-men without checks and balances.

Compare it with AH who was totally humiliated in a bunker in the beginning of 1945 (see the film "Der Untergang") suppose that man had had the red button.... could he have resisted the 'temptation'?

This could be the situation in the Kremlin.....
(PS added one with English subtitles).

Eher jag ich mir ein Kogel durch den Kopf.....(surrender? I rather kill myself)

[Northener]

Add and then take this:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/put...raine-invasion

The Federal Security Service, known as FSB, is Russia’s top security and counterintelligence apparatus. One former U.S. intelligence officer tells Fox News Digital that the move signals Putin’s dissatisfaction with his intelligence community’s assessment of the Ukrainian invasion.


"It means that Putin is angry and recognized that he was not provided with accurate intelligence," Rebekah Koffler, a former U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency agent and author of "Putin's Playbook: Russia's Secret Plan to Defeat America", told Fox News Digital about the significance of the report.

[bicicleur 2]

I think that's like entering a fireworks warehouse with a lighter.

The crucial thing is that, especially a dictator, shows completely unpredictable behavior in the event of a public breakdown. And also an almighty one surrounded by yes-men without checks and balances.

Compare it with AH who was totally humiliated in a bunker in the beginning of 1945 (see the film "Der Untergang") suppose that man had had the red button.... could he have resisted the 'temptation'?

This could be the situation in the Kremlin.....


Eher jag ich mir ein Kogel durch den Kopf.....(surrender? I rather kill myself)

Hitler knew he would be hung if he were captured alive.
I didn't say Putin should be encircled in his bunker with the nuke knob.
I don't understand how you come to this idea. The war is in Ukraine and he is safe in Moscow or some secret location.
Did I say NATO or some other force should invade Russia to capture him?

But China and others are watching very closely how this war will unfold.

[Tomenable]

Add and then take this:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/put...raine-invasion

https://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2022/03/lousy-intel.html

[Northener]

Hitler knew he would be hung if he were captured alive.
I didn't say Putin should be encircled in his bunker with the nuke knob.
I don't understand how you come to this idea. The war is in Ukraine and he is safe in Moscow or some secret location.

China and others are watching very closely how this war will unfold.

That's not the point imo. You see his reaction (of AH) on misinformation, on defeat. That kind of "personality types" acts very tricky with regard to humiliation or (possible) defeat. See also the reaction of Putin on the FSB (mis) information. The parallels are very obvious....

[EV13SON]

Well if you think he's bad just imagine the guy on the other red throne...this can get very bad...I know the west has it's share of problems but I still like being able to express myself without fear... we may be going deeper in the woods if the rumors I hear are true hug your loved ones...

[Northener]

Well if you think he's bad just imagine the guy on the other red throne...this can get very bad...I know the west has it's share of problems but I still like being able to express myself without fear... we may be going deeper in the woods if the rumors I hear are true hug your loved ones...

One of my old teachers Hans van Koningsbrugge, stated this yesterday in the newspaper (google translate):

Something important has happened that barely makes the press. Namely the arrest of Sergei Beseda. That is the head of the foreign affairs department of the FSB, the man who planned the operation in Ukraine. That Mr. Beseda is probably responsible for Putin's ideas that the Ukrainian regime would collapse like this. Not only he has been arrested, it seems, but also his right-hand man.


I looked up to that. Because it indicates that the Kremlin is cracking and looking for those responsible for what happened. It also shows that the story Putin is telling is wrong about how the operation is going so well and as expected.

Putin's Personal War
You can also see that it is a personal war. Putin's personal war. He thought it would be a piece of cake, because he got those reports. It could also explain why the Russians went into the first battle with fairly light troops. That they thought they would be received with flowers and brass bands. During the Maidan revolution in Ukraine in 2014, Beseda also made the mistake of estimating that the then president of Ukraine Yanukovych would make it. He was able to correct that mistake. Apparently not this one.


Apparently it is a charge of corruption. That's the usual. Those bigwigs, of course, all have tons of butter on their heads and seem to be in the closet. The highest boss chooses the moment they fall out. Apparently it is now.


Expansive Tsars
I also heard something fascinating about Putin's office. He has four portraits hanging there. From Peter the Great and Catherine the Great. From Alexander I, who defeated Napoleon, and from Nicholas I, the man of the Crimean War. All four expansive tsars. That is a political program, you know, what hangs there.

[Riverman]

Every time I hear someone mention WWIII and want to say that from a historian's perspective there has already been five world wars, starting with the Seven Years' War (1756-1763), which was the first World War. World War IV was the Cold War (including the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Iranian Revolution, the Nicaraguan Revolution, and the Cuban crisis, among others), and World War V was the War on Terror (including Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria and the terrorist attacks in Western countries since 9/11).

But to answer your question, even if NATO declares war on Russia, that would not constitute a world war properly speaking unless at least one other major country decides to side with Russia. Otherwise it's just a war against Putin's Russia. A world war always involve two 'teams" fighting with each others on a global scale. In the Seven Years' War it was Britain, Portugal, Hanover, Prussia on one side against France, Austria, Saxony, Sweden, Spain and the Mughal Empire on the other, with Russia changing side mid-conflict. In 1914-18 it was the Entente Powers against the Central Powers. In 1939-45 it was the Allied vs the Axis. In the Cold War it was NATO and the capitalist countries vs the Communist bloc...

As soon as there would start a war with Russia, it will at least spill over to the Middle East, with Syria-Iraq-Iran against Israel. That's the first step, and rather sooner than later, China will most likely step in, especially if Russia rather losing, but still fighting and causing massive damage to the NATO forces, which they would. So in no time we would be in a full scale World War, potentially with ABC weapons used on a grande scale.

Does any sane person wants this?

And saying that Putin started this war because the Americans were so peace loving and weak, "didn't do enough", is like pure cynicism. Russia started this war only because the Americans did interfere too much, because they backed up and pushed the Selenski regime towards its direct, open confrontation with Russia. Selenski started the purge, by arresting close friends of Putin, a large fraction of pro-Russian activists being suppressed and persecuted, media, especially TV stations closed and the mass media phased in a radical anti-Russian direction.
While that happened internally, the USA armed the Ukraine up, prepared them for their war to take Donbas back by force and fight off any Russian attack. That way, they created a time window for the Russians to act, before Ukraine gets too strong, probably destroys their Donbas allies or becoming even part of NATO, coming under a nuclear shield.
That pressure, because of the internal political purge and the external military threat, cause the Russian invasion now.
If the policy of Trump would have been prolonged, there would be no such war, especially not in this way. Its simple as that. The American interference, the aggressive push and back up for the Ukrainians and their interference, caused this war. They did too much already, the Biden administration was too aggressive, while at the same time making false promises to the Ukrainians.
So the Ukrainians being the victims of two forces: The Americans pushing them, with false promises, and the Russians.