Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

[bicicleur 2]

The Europeans have totally understated they or we real underestimated Putin and it's real intentions.

Part or the problem is only thinking in economics. We make a deal and what the heck the guy behind is doing!

I absolutely disagree.
The fundamental problem of Europe is that they believe that they are the moral compass of the world.
And that in the long end the rest of the world will follow their example.

Don't forget, humans are predators, it's in their DNA.
It's as simple as that.

 

[Tomenable]

Ukraine is gone.

It is not gone. Russians are losing, Putin underestimated the enemy and attacked with too small forces.

Also I just read that months ago Ukrainians secretely changed the deployment of their Anti-Aircraft forces, and thanks to this yesterday Russian strikes did not destroy Ukrainian AA defence. So Russians do not control the air above Ukraine. The Russian plan has failed.

Of course, it is too early to tell for sure if my judgment is correct or not, the next few days will show.

 

[Doggerland]

That's the price of pacifism and thinking that every problem in the world can be managed with money and diplomacy.

What happens now is a tragedy. The Europeans fear so much of war, that they will do anything not to provoke him to attack. But he will. The longer the NATO will wait, the better he will strike and win. And they cannot do anything against him besides to gather all their armies together to defeat him. Its the same as with Hitler once.

I don’t wanna live under this destructive guy. He destroys every land that is under his control, causes mismanagement, corruption, lies and brainwashing. The people there living without enlightenment. Religious indoctrination is the norm, a life without any hope. No justice, no free speech. For a dumb puppet, or a childlike mind, this may be a desirable state.

Not that our leaders where honest people, they are liars too and even our media. But Russia is another dimension. That is like comparing a garbage can to a garbage dump.

I feel so ashamed that my country is doing nothing for the people in Ukraine, they will have to fight a hard war, to cause the Russian troops as much harm as possible and make it very hard to claim the land.
Germany is always boasting around when it comes to condemn crimes against humanity, but now they hiding themselves behind their money, drinking Latte Macchiato and hoping that everything will go ahead like before, but it wont.
Sadly here in Germany we have many right wing people that wish to be assimilated by Russia, no Idea what they hope for. They wanna be nationalists? I don’t think so, they are just traitors.
The political parties AFD(Conservative Capitalists) and Die Linke(TheLeft) have exposed themselves as traitors too, by supporting Putin.

I may have a bad character, but I rejoice at every downed Russian plane, every fallen Russian solider. On the other hand, they die for no reason, that did not need to happen.
If a world war comes, it will come. I would rater like to die in war, as living in a Europe dominated by Vladimir Putin.
What is all this supposed to lead to? Should we all eventually emigrate to the US? They certainly don't want us all.

 

[Northener]

I absolutely disagree.
The fundamental problem of Europe is that they believe that they are the moral compass of the world.
And that in the long end the rest of the world will follow their example.

Don't forget, humans are predators, it's in their DNA.
It's as simple as that.

If we had a sharp moral compass we would no fallen in such deals with Putin. We waked up too late.

And we are not only predators, we also can cooperate...

 

[Riverman]

It's simple, with the strategy of making the Ukraine a NATO candidate and taking away Sevastopol, the current Ukrainian leadership and the Western alliance crossed several red lines. Then they never offered Russia a way out of the Crimean sanctions and the Donbas was constantly attacked and shelled, civilians targeted and nobody complained. The Minsk agreements never fulfilled. What did people think, that Russia will just wait and watch while the Ukraine comes under the nuclear shield of the NATO and any "correction" becomes an almost certain path to World War III?

I read today that the Ukrainian government might offer the lasting promise for the Ukraine staying neutral for good and restrain from becoming a NATO member. Why didn't they offer this in the talks before? They never offered anything like that before and the Western allies pushed Ukraine to not give in and don't accept any compromise with Russia.

Its horrible what's happening now and I don't think the way Russia is dealing with this is justified, or even less "a good thing", but seriously, what did people expect to happen? Russia doesn't want to be another vassal of Washington-London, and they don't want to lose Sevastopol/Crimea for which they fought numerous wars because of a sponsored coup in the Ukraine and false promises from the West. They waited and negotiated far longer than expected, but the talks didn't lead anywhere, there was no compromise in sight which would have been even remotely close to something acceptable for Russia.

There should have been a peaceful solution, all sides should have worked much harder on it, but to blame it only on one (the Russian) side is wrong. In fact, the USA in particular pushed Ukraine to the point of an armed conflict with Russia and now they abandoned it, so they have their "bad Russian guy" and a new Cold War once more. This was a hideous game with peace and life, in which the Western alliance had not that much to lose, but the Ukrainians and Russians getting all the blame and the fallout. Like all these interventions in the recent years, they just create human suffering for nothing, because of this kind of insensitive behaviour. In Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lybia, Yemen, Georgia and now Ukraine.
They shouldn't have intervened the way they did in the first place.

But to destabilise those regions and trying to gain influence over them is all they want it seems, unless they are even more incompetent than they should be. Always like bull in a China shop and not exactly "constructive".

 

[Northener]

It is not gone. Russians are losing, Putin underestimated the enemy and attacked with too small forces.

Also I just read that months ago Ukrainians secretely changed the deployment of their Anti-Aircraft forces, and thanks to this yesterday Russian strikes did not destroy Ukrainian AA defence. So Russians do not control the air above Ukraine. The Russian plan has failed.

Of course, it is too early to tell for sure if my judgment is correct or not, the next few days will show.

I hope so Tomennable. But we haven't a sharp image of the total battle field yet.

I agree that (in the long run) it's almost mission impossible and overstretch of Russia to controle 44 mil Ukrainians in such a large country with an unwilling population....

Nevertheless the war could get very dirty in the foreseeable future. The Russians will not withdrawal fast and have a destructive capacity the Ukrainian army is missing.

 

[Tomenable]

Current news from the front say that Russians are repelled in most places and suffering heavy losses.

Are these fake news? I don't think so. Ukrainians are counterattacking, they are not defenceless.

Ukrainians have several dozen thousand veterans of the 2014+ war, who have already seen combats.

I suppose that the Russian invasion force has more "greenhorns" who haven't seen combat yet.

 

[Riverman]

The most important thing for all sides which want to be constructive and realise a peaceful solution is that the Russians and Ukrainians get back to the table and negotiate. There should be a solution for a longer lasting peace with which both sides can live with. This shouldn't be solved with brute force to the bitter end, because if this would happen, we're dealing with lots of deaths and destruction, but also with a serious threat for the future of Europe, even mankind if something goes even more wrong. This should be contained as fast as possible and as things are, this means there must be a political compromise.
Its just awful how the talks went wrong in the last years and the provocations from both sides never stopped.

 

[Northener]

Current news from the front say that Russians are repelled in most places and suffering having losses.

Are these fake news? I don't think so. Ukrainians are counterattacking, they are not defenceless.

Ukrainians have few hundred thousand veterans of the 2014+ war, who have already seen combat.

I suppose that the Russian invasion force has more "greenhorns" who haven't seen combat yet.

One of our top military guys said on our TV it could be possible that it went not that fast as the Russian may be had hoped, but that the info is still to cloudy (war and misinformation by both sides is mostly 1:1).

I guess for special operations on the frontline the don't use greenies but high trained cracks.....

 

[Tomenable]

How numerous is the Russian army that has invaded? Only 150,000 - 200,000 soldiers?

That's not enough to capture and hold such an enormous territory which they are invading.

I know it is the 21st century and high-tech warfare, but you still need infantry to control terrain.

Ukrainians are going to have numerical superiority in infantry, they will be able to hold ground.

Russians already know this and they are sending reinforcements, including the Chechen brigade.

BTW, I will not be surprised if this Chechen brigade betrays and starts fighting for Ukraine instead.

 

[bicicleur 2]

If we had a sharp moral compass we would no fallen in such deals with Putin. We waked up too late.

And we are not only predators, we also can cooperate...

but we are so naïve
and we like to think we have a moral compass
but we are not sharp

 

[real expert]

Ukraine gave up its massive nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from the West(US/UK) and Russia. That didn't go well for them and they most certainly regret it and feel betrayed now. There was enormous pressure on the government of Ukraine which was financially bankrupt to give up its nuclear arsenal. In addition, it was threatened by the West with isolation if they didn't.

Anyway, Ukraine is a deeply divided country. Roughly half of the country looks west to Europe, and roughly half looks east to Russia for help. Hence, the situation is too complex and it would be necessary to ask what is the cause and effect of the escalation. War sucks always, is tragic and ugly, I don't wish any country to be invaded. I hope that this war is quickly over and that no more people get hurt or killed.

 

[bicicleur 2]

It is not gone. Russians are losing, Putin underestimated the enemy and attacked with too small forces.

Also I just read that months ago Ukrainians secretely changed the deployment of their Anti-Aircraft forces, and thanks to this yesterday Russian strikes did not destroy Ukrainian AA defence. So Russians do not control the air above Ukraine. The Russian plan has failed.

Of course, it is too early to tell for sure if my judgment is correct or not, the next few days will show.

I wish I could believe you.
It seems Ukraine is building up some resistance, they are brave, but they don't stand a chance.
Putin does not need to occupy Ukraine.
He just wants to remove the democracy and replace it by a puppet gevernment.
Like he has already succeeded in Bielorussia.

As for the fugitives arriving at the Polish border, they are women and children.
The men stay to fight the enemy.
It's quite the oposite of the so-called fugitives that tried and entered Europe the last 20 years or more.

 

[Riverman]

How numerous is the Russian army that has invaded? Only 150,000 - 200,000 soldiers?

I don't think the numbers are that low. They were higher from the start and seem to grow in numbers by the hour. Rather, that's the number they wanted it to look like, to surprise the opponent. It looks like large portions of the forces were dug in and hidden before the attack started. If they really would number just 150.000, yes, that would be way too low, but that is without the additional numbers from the Donbass units, those hidden and the ones coming in. I'm sure, if this is to be taken serious, they soon will reach 400.000 and more in total. Also, there seem to have been sleeper cells and active groups in the Ukraine itself, which numbers are hard to estimate, but might be higher than some anticipate up to this point. I recently heard from such groups beginning the attack on some frontal sections, attacking from the rear and behind the main battle line.

This is one example, probably one of the first witnesses so far:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrAbFWqD3Oc

 

[Angela]

That's the price of pacifism and thinking that every problem in the world can be managed with money and diplomacy.

What happens now is a tragedy. The Europeans fear so much of war, that they will do anything not to provoke him to attack. But he will. The longer the NATO will wait, the better he will strike and win. And they cannot do anything against him besides to gather all their armies together to defeat him. Its the same as with Hitler once.

I don’t wanna live under this destructive guy. He destroys every land that is under his control, causes mismanagement, corruption, lies and brainwashing. The people there living without enlightenment. Religious indoctrination is the norm, a life without any hope. No justice, no free speech. For a dumb puppet, or a childlike mind, this may be a desirable state.

Not that our leaders where honest people, they are liars too and even our media. But Russia is another dimension. That is like comparing a garbage can to a garbage dump.

I feel so ashamed that my country is doing nothing for the people in Ukraine, they will have to fight a hard war, to cause the Russian troops as much harm as possible and make it very hard to claim the land.
Germany is always boasting around when it comes to condemn crimes against humanity, but now they hiding themselves behind their money, drinking Latte Macchiato and hoping that everything will go ahead like before, but it wont.
Sadly here in Germany we have many right wing people that wish to be assimilated by Russia, no Idea what they hope for. They wanna be nationalists? I don’t think so, they are just traitors.
The political parties AFD(Conservative Capitalists) and Die Linke(TheLeft) have exposed themselves as traitors too, by supporting Putin.

I may have a bad character, but I rejoice at every downed Russian plane, every fallen Russian solider. On the other hand, they die for no reason, that did not need to happen.
If a world war comes, it will come. I would rater like to die in war, as living in a Europe dominated by Vladimir Putin.
What is all this supposed to lead to? Should we all eventually emigrate to the US? They certainly don't want us all.

Well, if I had my way the Immigration quotas as they now exist would be repealed. What on earth possessed this country to make is so hard for educated Europeans to immigrate here?

On the other hand, it pains me a great deal to admit it, but America has changed; I pray it's not irreversible.

It's unbelievable that having among them so many East Germans, West Germans could be under any illusions as to what life in Russia or any country dominated by Russia is like.

 

[Angela]

I don't think the numbers are that low. They were higher from the start and seem to grow in numbers by the hour. Rather, that's the number they wanted it to look like, to surprise the opponent. It looks like large portions of the forces were dug in and hidden before the attack started. If they really would number just 150.000, yes, that would be way too low, but that is without the additional numbers from the Donbass units, those hidden and the ones coming in. I'm sure, if this is to be taken serious, they soon will reach 400.000 and more in total. Also, there seem to have been sleeper cells and active groups in the Ukraine itself, which numbers are hard to estimate, but might be higher than some anticipate up to this point. I recently heard from such groups beginning the attack on some frontal sections, attacking from the rear and behind the main battle line.

This is one example, probably one of the first witnesses so far:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrAbFWqD3Oc

Just like the Volksdeutsche during World War II. This is like being catapulted back in history. I prayed I'd never see the tanks of totalitarian conquerors rolling through European streets again, but here it is. It's unbelievably upsetting.

 

[Malaparte]

He's a Putin apologist just like he will be a Xi apologist if they decide to invade Taiwan blaming the US for all the ills of the world.

I am most definitely not a China apologist. Rather, I have said several times that China is the true adversary, the peer competitor. If we actually had real statesmen, rather than the buffoonish henchmen of the globalist cabal, our policy would be guided by balance-of-power considerations. We have spent the past 30 years alienating Russia, violating its existential interest. Any halfway clever policy would have sought to draw Russia into the Western orbit.


[/QUOTE]what lethal weapons did we provide to Ukraine? Did we provide with bombers, attack planes, fighters? Did we provide them with armed drones? Abrams tanks? Oh my God we provided with Javelins that you have to be within 1.2 mile of a tank to hit it.[/QUOTE]

How do you think the US would respond if Russia were arming Mexico or Cuba?? Are you people really that incapable of understanding the Russian perspective? Diplomacy requires a degree of objectivity that is sorely lacking in our leadership. Our leaders are fundamentally divorced from reality.

Are you at all familiar with Zelensky's comments at Munich last week about Ukraine reacquiring nuclear weapons? Did any of our statesmen object to such foolish provocations? Nope.

And what do people imagine will happen if Russia is cut-off from SWIFT? Eventually Europe will be brought to its knees. Europe is dependent on Russian energy. This is a fundamental fact that must be recognized. And guess what? Once the Europeans finally realize their dependency on Russian energy, the Russians ain't going to sell it to them in dollars. And probably not Euros. Nope. The purchases will be denominated in a new Sino-Russian electronic currency.

And that's when the dollar collapse will happen big time. Sadly for the West, statesmanship is like chess. You have to think several moves ahead.

 

[Malaparte]

@bigsnake -- as for the weapons that we gave to Ukraine, I'm not privy to the inside info, are you?

But I can tell you that we began arming them back in December 2017 == https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ration-approves-lethal-arms-sales-to-ukraine/

Again, if you lack the imagination to understand the viewpoints of other countries, especially a country of such importance as Russia, then you probably shouldn't be working for the state department. But alas, such is the nature of our entire policy establishment

 

[Angela]

but we are so naïve
and we like to think we have a moral compass
but we are not sharp

At some point people have to grow up and see the world and human beings as they truly are and not as they wish them to be. The same goes for nations.

 

[Tomenable]

After seeing Putin's current madness, I think Jaroslaw Kaczynski might be right that in 2010 it was not an accident, but Russians shot down our plane:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Me2WmQDoSZg