Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

[Riverman]

Well, those are the dangers of believing things coming out of the mouths of autocrats; you often find out they're not true.

You have to consider that the Ukrainians being under the influence of propaganda as much as the Russians are. Ukraine being largely controlled by a handful of oligarchs and the current president being pushed by the media of his country, after being the actor of a series in which he played a president...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9smD823aE0

The common people on both sides of the border being manipulated.

I do agree, however it was not as universal as you are implying. There were people who did not share that common identity. For example German 19th century writer Heinrich von Kleist described such a confrontation between a son and a father:


"The romantic writer Heinrich von Kleist, although himself a nationalist, acknowledged the contradictions of identity found in 19th century Germany, imagining a young nationalist confronting his father with an assertion of German nationality, and the father's indignant reply that the son was born in Meissen and is therefore a Saxon, tartly observing that this mythical land of 'Germany' can be found on no map, and its people in no census."


^^^
And e.g. people of Danzig in early 1800s (Napoleonic times) were like that father. They hated Prussia and had a nostalgia for Polish-Lithuanian times.


Pan-German attitudes became very widespread / nearly universal only later, after Napoleonic times.

These are different things, because if you don't like Prussian rule, it doesn't mean you don't identify as a German. Or if you say your are a Saxon, it doesn't mean you don't also realise that you are a German. States, rulers, ideology can often conflict with ethnic identity. The Swiss e.g. didn't depart from Germany because they generally didn't felt German, but because they had a conflict with its system and rulers, a different kind of political struggle.

I think we shouldn't compare apples with oranges. There can be even ethnic Russians, obviously, which hate Putin more than many ethnic Ukrainians and might prefer any sort of independence and freedom from his and his party rule. Doesn't mean they don't know that they still are Russians. Same with the example you used.

[Tomenable]

^^^
OK but H. von Kleist's character said: "mythical land of 'Germany' can be found on no map, and its people [= Germans] in no census".

So, that was clearly about Germany. I'm sure that he did believe in the existence of Prussians, just not in the existence of Germans.

[Tomenable]

President Zelensky signed an application of Ukraine to EU membership:

https://t.me/verkhovnaradaukrainy/6648

[Riverman]

^^^
OK but H. von Kleist's character said: "mythical land of 'Germany' can be found on no map, and its people [= Germans] in no census".

So, that was clearly about Germany. I'm sure that he did believe in the existence of Prussians, just not in the existence of Germans.

That's of course referring to the fact that, at that point, there was no German state, but many German states - still this were German states. And it was even wrong at Kleist times, if he really said that, because some states already differentiated by ethnicity/mother tongue in their countries. However, its details and doesn't change the basic fact of a German identity which can traced back at least to Medieval times, potentially much earlier. That there were different tribes and regional states doesn't change that, because these were subordinate divisions.

[Tomenable]

Zelensky was an actor and a comedian before, while Putin was a spy. But Putin also has a good sense of humor and acting skills.

[Tomenable]

Coming back to ethnolinguistic issues, the man who is cursing Putin's troops in this famous video, speaks "pure Russian" - not even Surzhyk:

https://twitter.com/morg_den/status/1497930579135938561

Well maybe it is because he is directing his message mainly to Russian viewers. But maybe it is also because Russian is his main language.

[Northener]

That's of course referring to the fact that, at that point, there was no German state, but many German states - still this were German states. And it was even wrong at Kleist times, if he really said that, because some states already differentiated by ethnicity/mother tongue in their countries. However, its details and doesn't change the basic fact of a German identity which can traced back at least to Medieval times, potentially much earlier. That there were different tribes and regional states doesn't change that, because these were subordinate divisions.

You can't define a German "upordinate" or nucleus East-Frisians shared nothing with the Bavarians. So it's made not given. This is a Romantic fiction you keep hanging on (like a dogma).

[Tomenable]

Well it doesn't matter if there is the same ethnicity on both sides or different ethnicities.

In the American Civil War there was the same ethnicity on both sides and yet it was the bloodiest & the most brutal war in U.S. history.

Sherman during his March to the Sea did not care that he was burning American towns.

Edit:

I mean the same nation, American nation.

[Riverman]

You can't define a German "upordinate" or nucleus East-Frisians shared nothing with the Bavarians. So it's made not given. This is a Romantic fiction you keep hanging on (like a dogma).

Its in Medieval records, when people refer to themselves as Germans, especially if being confronted with non-Germans, when they make a distinction including other Germans in the term.

[Tomenable]

So far Russia is supplying Ukraine's enconomy with large amounts of scrap metal.

Plenty of videos on Twitter etc.

[Tomenable]

Another abandoned Russian tank stolen by a farmer (this time Non-Gypsy):

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/sta...23662695419910

Actually I would like to own a tank too. Maybe I'll go there and try my luck.

[Northener]

Its in Medieval records, when people refer to themselves as Germans, especially if being confronted with non-Germans, when they make a distinction including other Germans in the term.

I guess not German was for the first time used by the Romans. This disappeared more or less until late middle ages. And reused by the literati later on.

Dutch or Deutsch (which are as nations different!) are derrived from *teuta or folk/people.

https://www.etymonline.com/word/Dutc...crossreference

Nation(building) is something modern and not ancient. Proposing something ancient is projecting. As said it's not 'given', it is 'made' a construct that's the crux.

[Tomenable]

This is the 2nd time since WW2 when the Russian army is involved in a large-scale war.


The 1st time was the Soviet war in Afghanistan which also was a Russian embarrassment.


The myth of powerful Russian army has burst like a soap bubble.

[Riverman]

This is the 2nd time since WW2 when the Russian army is involved in a large-scale war.

The 1st time was the Soviet war in Afghanistan which also was a Russian embarassment.

The myth of powerful Russian army has burst like a soap bubble.

If it becomes a failure, I rather would compare it with the Finnish Winter War:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

That war was part of the reason Germany thought the Soviet Union would be no real match for their forces.

[Malaparte]

Putin's Rasputin, Alexandr Dugin gives, a gepolitical difference between "the seaman's point of view", the Atlantic world, and the "landman's point of view", the Russian point of view. The connotations go bigger and broader than that. I guess you can see also the liberal-democratic point vs the authoritarian-populist point of view. Is this a real contradiction or also a kind of dichotomy trap? Because the landman's view comes with resentments, with revanchist thoughts.....

@Malaparte you want to make from the US a landman and authoritarian point of view?

My acquaintance with Dugin's thought is slight. However, I would say that much of Dugin's land power vs sea power talk is derived from Carl Schmitt.

The United States has had the orientation of a sea power since at least the late 19th century. It is not a land power, very simply, because it has never been challenged by land. I don't think one can change geography. The US is a country bounded by two massive bodies of water. It is by nature a sea power. However, should the US ever split up, then certain of its successor states might become land powers.

As for authoritarianism, it is today undeniable that the globalists are the true authoritarians. This point can no longer be argued after the past two years.

[Tomenable]

^^^
Yes that is also a good comparison.

=====

More of scrap metal supplies, abandoned Russian self-propelled artillery piece:

https://twitter.com/_tredecim_/statu...12094894206980

And here a massive Russian convoy 17 miles long, easy target, probably soon will be destroyed by drones etc.:

https://twitter.com/ckoettl/status/1...2F4a85InTgk%2F

[Tomenable]

Not sure if true, but I read somewhere that Russian soldiers were not allowed to take their cellphones with them to Ukraine.

So they don't have access to the Internet. Even officers apparently don't have phones. Could this be true?

There are videos showing Russians asking Ukrainian civilians for directions...

[Malaparte]

@ Malaparte
I guess when Trump gets reelected in 2024, the torch of the free, liberal, democratic world has gone from the US to Germany in Europe. So from Pax Americana to Pax Germania!? Scholz has give a decisive push to it yesterday. And I guess with an isolationist US this will be the ultimate consequence.

But that's longer term, we are still facing a very severe crisis in which Nato needs to operate as a very close unit.

An older article, this got recently a push:



https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-e...209-story.html

There isn't much in the LA Times article to take seriously. The liberal order has been shattered. But do not shed tears, for this "liberal order" was always an illusion, a set of laws & institutions imposed by the United States, which no longer has the power to keep it in place. Real politik has always been the fundamental truth, only now the scales have been lifted from our eyes.

As for Pax Germania, it would be a very good thing for Europe. But it will have no purchase beyond the borders of Europe.

[Northener]

My acquaintance with Dugin's thought is slight. However, I would say that much of Dugin's land power vs sea power talk is derived from Carl Schmitt.

The United States has had the orientation of a sea power since at least the late 19th century. It is not a land power, very simply, because it has never been challenged by land. I don't think one can change geography. The US is a country bounded by two massive bodies of water. It is by nature a sea power. However, should the US ever split up, then certain of its successor states might become land powers.

As for authoritarianism, it is today undeniable that the globalists are the true authoritarians. This point can no longer be argued after the past two years.

It's not from Schimtt but from:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halford_Mackinder

As for authoritarianism, it is today undeniable that the globalists are the true authoritarians. This point can no longer be argued after the past two years.

That's the point our roads divide. When this becomes (again) the dominant line of the US I have more trust in a Pax Germania (by Scholz).

[Malaparte]

It looks like the Dragon is awakening. Is it beginning?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/st...ve-are-soaring


The only question is how long before the financial hub- torch is transferred from New York to Beijing. 120 months? give or take+/-

What our great statesmen seem not to realize is that by taking Russia off of SWIFT, they are accelerating the development of alternative exchange mechanisms to the US dollar.

Now if the dollar loses its status as global reserve currency, the US will find it exceedingly difficult -- among many, many other things -- to finance its military. And this at a time when we will be competing against the combined resources of China + Russia.

Sounds to me like a losing hand.

And a very different financial scenario than the US arms race against USSR.

Again, we need a fundamental re-think of our entire foreign policy. If Russia were a third pole of power, allied with Europe, it could constrain China from the north and deny China strategic depth.

The bipolar order that is now emerging will favor China + Russia over the US. This will be painfully apparent should the dollar collapse as a result of the SWIFT shenanigans, which will cause Russia short-term pain, and the US long-term calamity.

[Tomenable]

Who is this guy Klaus Schwab? This video claims, quote - "Vladimir Putin is Klaus Schwab's puppet":

https://rumble.com/vvykhe-vladimir-p...-la-davos.html

So Putin is a puppet of some influencial German guy?

[Tomenable]

^^^
It is probably just a conspiracy theory in the end.

But... - I wouldn't be surprised if this Klaus Schwab is the real ruler of Russia.

And Putin is just his puppet.


Russia has often been ruled by Germans (including e.g. Catherine the Great).

[Northener]

Who is this guy Klaus Schwab? This video claims, quote - "Vladimir Putin is Klaus Schwab's puppet":

https://rumble.com/vvykhe-vladimir-p...-la-davos.html

So Putin is a puppet of some influencial German guy?

ROFLOL that's the man of the great reset after Corona, that man organizes in Davos for the rich and famous seminars etc, Dugin and the authoritarian populist are strongly against it, he (Dugin) wrote in 2021: Dugin, The Great Awakening vs the Great Reset. I guess no Putin buddy.

[Tomenable]

The Western powers made Ukraine their pawn.

And Russia is a pawn of Klaus Schwab according to the video I linked above.

Here something more about him:

https://www.weforum.org/videos/prof-...om-the-founder

[Northener]

And Russia is a pawn of Klaus Schwab according to the video I linked above.

Here something more about him:

https://www.weforum.org/videos/prof-...om-the-founder

I saw that Putin has indeed been to Davos. Doen't mean that Putin is a Schwab puppet....hell no

We neighbors....Poles and Dutch must not make the Germans too big Tomenable