Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

[Hawk]

Russia will have no economy by June with the sanctions taken. I wonder if Ukraine manages to survive till at least August maybe Putin might retreat.

"Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."


https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500305539707801601?s=20&t=prbF3t7dSba-vy_2qxr19A

Of course, more and more sanctions are coming. Russia cannot cope with this pressure for longer time.

 

[Vallicanus]

Honestly at this point i have to partially agree with Riverman, in that Zelensky should just give up. Else he is just asking for more dead civilians especially when he asks them to help the military fighting. not to mention the soldiers who will die. the West should just try to keep up those sanctions as long as possible and hope that Putin goes away asap and that things change afterwards.

Reward Putin's aggression?

No way.

 

[Vallicanus]

He's wrong to emphasize Putin is 70 years old.
When only Putin is removed, a similar man from the Kremlin KGB will persecute Putin's ambitions.
When they get Ukraine, they'll go for Georgia and Moldavia.
And if they get away with that, they'll go to for the Baltic states.

Putin's confidence got a blow because he underestimated Ukraine's resistance.
Now is the moment to strike.
If you let this pass he'll step up in Ukraine with cluster bombs and chemical warfare.
And after that he'll go further.

You are right.
Weakness and reasonable behaviour merely encourages an aggressor like Putin.

 

[Riverman]

Honestly at this point i have to partially agree with Riverman, in that Zelensky should just give up. Else he is just asking for more dead civilians especially when he asks them to help the military fighting. not to mention the soldiers who will die. the West should just try to keep up those sanctions as long as possible and hope that Putin goes away asap and that things change afterwards.

Militarily, he can still have some options beside total destruction until Kiev being fully and firmly encircled and the Western army groups of the UAF being cut off along the Dnepr. If the main forces manage to get over the river, which is also why they sacrifice civilians and delay the humanitarian corridors or want them to be used by military forces too, the Selenski regime can continue the war in the West and until being beaten there too or the Russian army collapses or there are incidents, which the Selenski regime will try to provoke, to cause a NATO intervention.
He is a total gambler which doesn't care for the Ukrainian people and their life and well-being. If he has any humanity and responsibility left, he would try to get into serious negotiations as soon as possible. And he would surrender officially once the Kiev encirclement happened and the Western forces being cut off. That's the latest point for such a turn. But I don't believe he will do it. He will sacrifice millions of Ukrainians and Russians instead and at the end getting out to London for an exile government and instigate hate and confrontation from there as long as he gets paid for it. That's the 2nd worst scenario after nuclear war and my most likely predicted scenario.
The less likely, but still possible scenario, is that the Russian forces collapse because they lack the determination to win this war, then he could win and being celebrated as the "hero" which brought Russia down. Russia would then become a chaotic thing with warlords and mobsters, political extremists of all sort and a nuclear arsenal. Not a great prospect either.

Selenski and his regime did refuse to accept anything negotiated in the Mink agreements and said he won't "negotiate with terrorists". That's the kind of peace negotiations he promised in his election campaign... He lied before and went into confrontation mode, he shows absolutely no intention to step down.

Reward Putin's aggression?

No way.

Reward the war course of an irresponsibly acting and corrupted regime of Selenski with the prospect of World War 3? Who is supposed to profit from that?

Russia had legitimate demands, but instead of trying to negotiate a compromise, the Selenski regime just stepped up with its aggressive confrontation. They never implemented Minsk II and had the intention to eliminate the pro-Russian territories by force and get Crimea back with the help of NATO, from the start. They don't care for peace or human suffering if its about reaching their goals for the clique around him, people like Kolomoyskyi. You want a 3rd World War for people like him:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ihor_Kolomoyskyi

The common Ukrainians are innocent, they being just victims of these two bellicose regimes clashing and this is a tragedy. But to side with one corrupted regime and escalate things to a threat for humanity is no reasonable option, or at least should be none.

 

[Riverman]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/07/politics/donald-trump-ukraine-china-russia/index.html

If that would be true, it would be yet another instance of great that he didn't made it into office this time...
However, considering how biased CNN is towards any conservatives and Trump in particular, I would be careful about whether or not this is real or fake. But with a bit of alcohol packed, he might babble such nonsense. The next day he might praise Putin or whatever, is sometimes quite unpredictable.

 

[Northener]

If that would be true, it would be yet another instance of great that he didn't made it into office this time...
However, considering how biased CNN is towards any conservatives and Trump in particular, I would be careful about whether or not this is real or fake. But with a bit of alcohol packed, he might babble such nonsense. The next day he might praise Putin or whatever, is sometimes quite unpredictable.

You have seen this is recorded and it's possessed by the washington post, so in the end this is the proof of the pudding. #beyondbias

 

[Riverman]

You have seen this is recorded and it's possessed by the washington post, so in the end this is the proof of the pudding. #beyondbias

True, but he was joking, apparently:

The Post reports that the Republican donor audience laughed when Trump proposed his "pretend-we're-the-Chinese" strategy. What's far less clear is whether Trump was actually joking.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/07/politics/donald-trump-ukraine-china-russia/index.html

Ok, then its just a typical CNN spin, making him look like a fool or maniac when he in fact just made a joke...

 

[Northener]

He's wrong to emphasize Putin is 70 years old.
When only Putin is removed, a similar man from the Kremlin KGB will persecute Putin's ambitions.
When they get Ukraine, they'll go for Georgia and Moldavia.
And if they get away with that, they'll go to for the Baltic states.

Putin's confidence got a blow because he underestimated Ukraine's resistance.
Now is the moment to strike.
If you let this pass he'll step up in Ukraine with cluster bombs and chemical warfare.
And after that he'll go further.

I guess not a cornered cat makes weird jumps. He is isolated, one track minded and no one contradicts him. There are NO checks and balances in the Kremlin. If you corner him totally, without any way out, he becomes totally uncalculable.

He doesn't have the conventional strength to go beyond the Ukraine. And the Ukraine itself may already be overstretch.

 

[Northener]

True, but he was joking, apparently:


https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/07/politics/donald-trump-ukraine-china-russia/index.html

Ok, then its just a typical CNN spin, making him look like a fool or maniac when he in fact just made a joke...

Of course it's a joke...one enduring joke....

And sorry Riverman about the Zelenski entourage in the Ukraine you made some points that made me think.

But you have some anti-CNN bias too. It is recorded and the original source is Washington post. Trump self feeds this kind of stuff. This is joke or not plain ridiculous talk.

 

[Duarte]

First of all there is no way Ukraine wil stand till august if the west doesn't impose the no-fly zone.
Putin will step up his cruelties. The number of civilian casualties is already rising the last few days.
He won't hesitate to use cluster bombs or chemical warfare.

Second Putin is not worried about the Russian economy.
He only cares for himself and his direct entourage.
If necessary he will also use terror against his own Russian citizens.
Do you think the Communists cared about the economy?
History might repeat itself.

I agree with you where you say that Putin does not care about the economic situation of his country and its people. Economic sanctions will not stop Putin. The USSR and the Central Committee of the Communist Party survived from 1917 to 1991 under economic sanction from the West and investing heavily only in weapons, censorship and repression to maintain the USSR as a military superpower and with an alienated (uninformed) people. While today the majority of the West invests, on average, in the armed forces, 3% of its annual budget, Putin's Russia invests more than 20%. If Western Europe invests in health, education, science, technology, social welfare in general, Putin takes it all away from his people and invests in weapons. He doesn't care about the people (the communists didn't care either), but only about himself and the oligarchy to which he belongs. This somewhat explains the fact that Russia is not an economic superpower that radiates prosperity to the people, but is a military superpower where the social well-being of the population in general has no relevance. The clear option is for Russia as a military superpower, with a poor, uninformed and submissive people. Angela is right. Typical third world view.

As for the No-Fly Zone, for now I think this is madness that would push all of Europe into a war of unpredictable consequences to save the Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukraine from capitulation. Many people, myself included, doubted that Putin would invade Ukraine. Now I have no more doubts about the possibility of an escalation of the war depending on the behavior of the West in relation to the conflict. I wouldn't want to be in anyone's firing line. But I speak only for myself, I have never been an altruistic person when it comes to my own self-preservation and that of my family.

 

[vandalorum]

岸田首相は７日の参院予算委員会で、北方領土に関する日本政府の認識を問われ、「『固有の領土』『主権を有する領土』、ともに我が国の対応だ」と述べた。「この用語を使い分けた記憶はない」とも語った。

The government has been forced to re-orbit its policy toward Russia following the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops. This is because negotiations on a peace treaty, including the Northern Territories issue between Japan and Russia, have stagnated, and the progress of economic cooperation is uncertain.

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20220307-OYT1T50283/
_____

in short -->>> Japan has said that the southern Kurils are their sovereign territory

 

[Riverman]

As for the No-Fly Zone, for now I think this is madness that would push all of Europe into a war of unpredictable consequences to save the Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukraine from capitulation. Many people, myself included, doubted that Putin would invade Ukraine. Now I have no more doubts about the possibility of an escalation of the war depending on the behavior of the West in relation to the conflict. I wouldn't want to be in anyone's firing line. But I speak only for myself, I have never been an altruistic person when it comes to my own self-preservation and that of my family.

This is no question of altruism vs. egoism, its one of intelligence and accountability. Does a nuclear war save Ukrainians? No, it ruins everbody's life on this planet and most certainly Europe as a whole. And then again, this war won't stop without negotiations, at some point, with or without Selenski, with or without Putin. There are fundamental, principle problems on the ground in Ukraine, from geostrategic games, historical heritage, ethnic and cultural ties to very personal interests and profits. This needs to be solved on the negotiations table, at some point, or becoming a bloody mess like the 30years war with 21st century weapons.
If Selenski is no sane political leader, he never was, he always lied and pretended to be something (a TV show persona!) which he is not, he is no dove, he never was, he is not even an accountable hawk, then we need an alternative. Unconditional support for such a regime is no option, and propaganda stations like CNN make it all "good vs evil", all that one sided propaganda which always just counts the misbehaviour of one side and emotionalises the public. How do they want to end this in a reasonable way? I think some of the "journalists" at CNN & Co. are just as irresponsible as Putin and Selenski are, with one basic difference: They don't even realise what the outcome of their actions might be, until its too late and the world is in flames, and for what? For supporting that warmonger in Kiev and his oligarchs.

I'm getting headache from these politicians closer to me (geographically) too:
https://www.diglogs.com/austria/sha..._sharply_criticizes_Nehammer_and_Schallenberg

Bigmouthed. That's all he is, again for what? Instead of keeping Austria strictly neutral and trying to initiate negotiations, they are loudmouthed as if they can make a difference that way. Just because the whole international choir under US supremacy has to sing. Whether it helps or not, doesn't matter. That's the wrong attitude. People should think more in terms of how we get out of this world crisis, instead of making it worse!

Especially in the Ukraine conflict, there is absolutely no black & white, good vs. evil. Absolutely not. Both sides have legitimate claims and do horrible things the same time, like so often in history.

 

[Riverman]

He said it all 2015, but nobody listened, just warmongers which made things worse:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

 

[Angela]

Christ, it's true some people don't get humor.

I can't stand Trump, but anyone who can't see that was a joke needs to seriously consider that Trump Derangement Syndrome has taken control of them.

The whole idea is preposterous. As if the sham wouldn't be detected in a day.

 

[Northener]

Christ, it's true some people don't get humor.

I can't stand Trump, but anyone who can't see that was a joke needs to seriously consider that Trump Derangement Syndrome has taken control of them.

The whole idea is preposterous. As if the sham wouldn't be detected in a day.

When it's humor it's misplaced humor....but that comes as no surprise.

 

[Northener]

@Riverman

If people ask why I write more about the Russian side of things: Not because I think they are more right, but because they being simply underrepresented and the media coverage and public opinion is that skewed and one sided I simply can't stand it any more. For pro-Ukrainian statements anybody gets a medal at this point, but for even correcting false propaganda from the Ukrainian and UK-USA side, you being smeared as troll and whatnot. That's just the kind of atmosphere I can't stand. This is absolutely not about good vs. evil, especially if looking more carefully at what the Selenski regime did in the last years and how they conduct war themselves.

First, keep the two things separate Putin and Zelenski. The Putin regime (not the Russians!) is authoritarian and repressive. Putin's revanchist agenda is clear. Also that the step has been taken to invade another country. There is no legitimacy for that. I don't see any reason whatsoever to argue against this, or underscore Putin's opinion because they are "underrepresented". They are underrepresented Riverman for a reason. So this is where your argument goes completely wrong.


So condemning Putin's regime doesn't have to mean that Zelensky is declared a virgin. That the sympathy is there can be explained of course: his country is under attack (so he is a 'victim'), he stands for a 'cause' (that he states well) that is shared with the most people in the west and he has a feeling for PR. The fact that a lot can be said about Zelenski's entourage is also true (you have shared information about it). And we have to remain critical of spin and the like.


At the same time, the ink black that comes from the Kremlin remains and let's keep calling it that. I see no point or need to act as a "spokesperson" for Putin....because Putin is "unrepresented" (so he is a victim?) give me a break.

 

[Northener]

This is no question of altruism vs. egoism, its one of intelligence and accountability. Does a nuclear war save Ukrainians? No, it ruins everbody's life on this planet and most certainly Europe as a whole. And then again, this war won't stop without negotiations, at some point, with or without Selenski, with or without Putin. There are fundamental, principle problems on the ground in Ukraine, from geostrategic games, historical heritage, ethnic and cultural ties to very personal interests and profits. This needs to be solved on the negotiations table, at some point, or becoming a bloody mess like the 30years war with 21st century weapons.
If Selenski is no sane political leader, he never was, he always lied and pretended to be something (a TV show persona!) which he is not, he is no dove, he never was, he is not even an accountable hawk, then we need an alternative. Unconditional support for such a regime is no option, and propaganda stations like CNN make it all "good vs evil", all that one sided propaganda which always just counts the misbehaviour of one side and emotionalises the public. How do they want to end this in a reasonable way? I think some of the "journalists" at CNN & Co. are just as irresponsible as Putin and Selenski are, with one basic difference: They don't even realise what the outcome of their actions might be, until its too late and the world is in flames, and for what? For supporting that warmonger in Kiev and his oligarchs.

I'm getting headache from these politicians closer to me (geographically) too:
https://www.diglogs.com/austria/sha..._sharply_criticizes_Nehammer_and_Schallenberg

Bigmouthed. That's all he is, again for what? Instead of keeping Austria strictly neutral and trying to initiate negotiations, they are loudmouthed as if they can make a difference that way. Just because the whole international choir under US supremacy has to sing. Whether it helps or not, doesn't matter. That's the wrong attitude. People should think more in terms of how we get out of this world crisis, instead of making it worse!

Especially in the Ukraine conflict, there is absolutely no black & white, good vs. evil. Absolutely not. Both sides have legitimate claims and do horrible things the same time, like so often in history.

Man at the negotiation tabel as long as Putin thinks he can win the war, he is TOTALLY not interested in real negotiations. Simple fact.

Austria has with all the respect no position to initiate negotiations sorry, why should it have?

And Putin's Kremlin is at the this moment pure repressive authoritarian....in fact indeed evil. What kind of hope comes from the Kremlin at this moment Riverman, nothing! If so give three examples what kind of hope comes nowadays from Putin?

 

[Northener]

Nothing politics now just humanitarian aide.

This morning started a aide collection for the Ukrainians in the Netherlands, the standings are 53 million euros, hopefully it will be even more....

21:30 standing 63 mil.

 

[Northener]

Unfortunately... I think the root of evil must be struck while there is still time ... Hitler_Stalin II ... the mad murderer and his acolytes are already haunting humanity again.

We must give aid to ordinary people as good as possible....they are the real victims of the war.

(add. Evil will never disappear so attempt to root things out ... is never 'a solution' imo)

 

[Riverman]

There is no legitimacy for that. I don't see any reason whatsoever to argue against this, or underscore Putin's opinion because they are "underrepresented".

If Selenski and the USA try to bring the Ukraine in its current borders into NATO, while already arming it up and supporting a hardliner course which being directed, very directly, against Russian people and interests, its noteworthy, regardless. Because its a reason for war. Even more so if they cut off Crimea from water supply, banning all pro-Russian media and persecuting pro-Russian citizens, doing various kinds of mistreatments and war crimes in Donbas, like the mentioned hunger blockades, shelling of settlements, killing of leaders, tortue of prisoners and all the time threatening that Russia can't do anything, but just watch the opponent building up forces, until it hits its interests and allies with all the more force.
Then ignoring all the hundreds of thousands of pro-Russians which live now for years as refugees in Russia, because of the Ukrainian unwillingness to compromise. The corruption in the country and its aggressiveness towards all people which don't support the war, its neglect for the civilian lifes and how they drag men into service as cannon fodder.
The list might go on and become longer and longer, many things I don't even know as of now, and which all make clear that we are not at this point just because "Putin went crazy". At first I thought it was totally wrong what he did, and I still think its not justified to escalate things to this level, but there is a problem: What were his alternatives? Like I said, Ukraine was on war course, no matter what Russia did, they just build up their force to kick Russians and all pro-Russian/ethnic Russians which don't support the regime out. They want to take back Donbas, they want to get even Crimea back, with NATO support, they're unwilling to accept any compromise and just got stronger in their determination the last years.
If Russia would accept all that, all these catastrophic developments against Russian interests, they would still have a problem with Ukraine, because in Ukraine, all the oligarchs and their Western service agents with anti-Russian goals will build up a propaganda division, which will try to infiltrate Russia itself. That's pretty clear from the whole outline of it. Ukraine would be not just a military threat and problem, a great loss to the prestige and cause millions of Russian refugees, lost bases and positions, material wealth and resources, but it would stay a thorn in current Russias flesh all the years to come.

So what were the Russian options? Seriously, they were running out of options, because they got cornered by the unwillingness of the Selenski regime and the USA to accept any compromise. And that's why Russia did "overreact" and invaded the country. They were pushed to it, any objective observer which is able to consider geopolitical and strategical facts of the conflict will have to admit that, if being honest about it. In the above linked video, Mearsheimer did predict it 2015, that Putin won't invade Ukraine, only if being pushed that far and it might be a catastrophy for Russia - but that was the plan! And the USA and the Selenski regime just added one provocation after another, one push after the next, and no compromise in sight. Its an act of sheer desperation that Putin did resort to a full scale invasion. And the Selenski regime doesn't prove him wrong, because they just step up on the escalation ladder as far as they can and try to drag the whole world in this conflict. With people which act that way, show absolutely no sign for being ready to come to acceptable terms for both sides, you can't negotiate with.

Like I wrote from the start: I hope they can change the course of events, but this would also mean for Selenski to take himself back and not as important, but for that he is, quite obviously, by all his actions and appearances, too much of an egomaniac and self-promoter. Which is exactly why this situation is so dire.

These two regimes are for sure both not easy partners for peace talks, but some way they must get together, because what's the better alternative?