Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

[Northener]

If the Ukrainian folks want to be an independent country, it seems like they’re going to have to fight for their independence on the battlefield. I could be wrong, but I assume that overall the Russian people are not keen on the war in Ukraine. However, this can change when the Russian public gets the impression that the "whole" world and especially the West is against them. The bottom line is that these geopolitical games will only benefit certain groups while the people in the middle of this will have to pay.

Yes and the US has already supported the remilitarization of the Ukraine. But no match for the Russians, so what we are probably are going to see is may be a dirty guerrilla war....

Until now the public in Russia support Putin. They only hear and see news about 'the genocide in the Ukraine on Russians', 'the fascistic regime in the Ukraine' etc etc.

This only will counter if Putin is overstretching Russia, when they get a severe economic crisis and body bags from the front. But unfortunately the Ivan average will suffer not the oligarchs.

Nevertheless this is a keen plan of Putin, his revanche, the unified Rus.....this master plan is not spontaneously, is something that is strived for since in fact 1991. His agenda inclusive destabilization of the West, through supporting he authoritarian populist, is unfolding further.....

Will we trap into it any further? What do you think?

[Yetos]

||Time for ERurope to get rid Anglosaxons and Russians.

Europe today is under a perimeter of Energy
maybe we will returnback to coal plants,

The North sea hydrocarbon energy has reach only by Lowlands, Netherlands) Brexit affect a lot.
The East pipelines are tottaly controled by Russia either Nordstream, either through Ukraine etc
the Caspian deposits are controled by Turkey.
But ehst we see

1 Libya, Turkey SADAT and Russian Wagner control the land.
2 Syria Turkey occupies land and make together patrols with Russia
3 Armenia, a new pipeline from Azzerbaizan is to pass from Artsakch or Nagorno-karabach. Azerbaijan with help of Turkey enters. and Russia does help the Armenians
4 N Kurdistan or Iraq we all know what hapens there.

So Europe is forced to buy very expencive LNG from USA.
the DENIAL of USA to East Med pipeline, shows clearly that USA does not want a pipeline from Arabia and Israel to Europe.

So Europe a very strong economy is forced either to return to Coal era, either to get poor. even to dismiss.

[Northener]

||Time for ERurope to get rid Anglosaxons and Russians.

Europe today is under a perimeter of Energy
maybe we will returnback to coal plants,

The North sea hydrocarbon energy has reach only by Lowlands, Netherlands) Brexit affect a lot.
The East pipelines are tottaly controled by Russia either Nordstream, either through Ukraine etc
the Caspian deposits are controled by Turkey.
But ehst we see

1 Libya, Turkey SADAT and Russian Wagner control the land.
2 Syria Turkey occupies land and make together patrols with Russia
3 Armenia, a new pipeline from Azzerbaizan is to pass from Artsakch or Nagorno-karabach. Azerbaijan with help of Turkey enters. and Russia does not help the Armenians
4 N Kurdistan or Iraq we all know what hapens there.

So Europe is forced to buy very expencive LNG from USA.
the DENIAL of USA to East Med pipeline, shows clearly that USA does not want a pipeline from Arabia and Israel to Europe.

So Europe a very strong economy is forced either to return to Coal era, either to get poor. even to dismiss.

You forget that Russia has a GDP of the Benelux. And that 60% of the incomes depends on gas and oil.
There are alternatives, Qatar for example. Of course this all can be though. But I'm convinced we are not condemned.

[real expert]

Yes and the US has already supported the remilitarization of the Ukraine. But no match for the Russians, so what we are probably are going to see is may be a dirty guerrilla war....

Until now the public in Russia support Putin. They only hear and see news about 'the genocide in the Ukraine on Russians', 'the fascistic regime in the Ukraine' etc etc.

This only will counter if Putin is overstretching Russia, when they get a severe economic crisis and body bags from the front. But unfortunately the Ivan average will suffer not the oligarchs.

Nevertheless this is a keen plan of Putin, his revanche, the unified Rus.....this master plan is not spontaneously, is something that is strived for since in fact 1991. His agenda inclusive destabilization of the West, through supporting he authoritarian populist, is unfolding further.....

Will we trap into it any further? What do you think?

Well, in order for the Ukrainian army to have a realistic chance in a guerrilla war against Russia, the Ukrainian soldiers need American assistance on the air and a no-fly zone. So the Ukrainian army could fight on the ground while relying on back-up, including air support, from the U.S. military like in Afghanistan. After the USA withdrew its help on the air for the Afghan army, the soldiers were totally demoralized and didn't want to fight on the ground against the Taliban with no US assistance whatsoever. Some Ukraine people are asking for much tougher sanctions on Russian gas and oil that would really hurt Russia.

[bigsnake49]

Again there is no 2% of GDP payments to NATO. It is recommended that each country spend at least 2% of their GDP on their own forces. trump has managed to confuse everybody on this point.

[bigsnake49]

Yes and the US has already supported the remilitarization of the Ukraine. But no match for the Russians, so what we are probably are going to see is may be a dirty guerrilla war....

Until now the public in Russia support Putin. They only hear and see news about 'the genocide in the Ukraine on Russians', 'the fascistic regime in the Ukraine' etc etc.

This only will counter if Putin is overstretching Russia, when they get a severe economic crisis and body bags from the front. But unfortunately the Ivan average will suffer not the oligarchs.

Nevertheless this is a keen plan of Putin, his revanche, the unified Rus.....this master plan is not spontaneously, is something that is strived for since in fact 1991. His agenda inclusive destabilization of the West, through supporting he authoritarian populist, is unfolding further.....

Will we trap into it any further? What do you think?

Actually the Russians do not support Putin. There was an article about it and particularly the younger people are extremely skeptical of Putin's assertions that the West is going to attack Russia. With the Internet people have access to information and the information they are getting is making them very doubtful of Putin's motives. But change will not come from them, it will come from the oligarchs and the intelligence services.

[real expert]

Well, maybe they should consider how Jews look at it, and I can assure you that the vast majority see it as an ethnicity. Millions of them still consider themselves "Jewish" even if they are atheists who rejected the religion long ago.

Goodness, one of my dear friends married a Jewish guy. His family sat shiva for him.

Sad if true that Schmidt is uncomfortable admitting that he is 1/4 Jewish. Not that he should be defined by it. However, to be ashamed of it is another thing, or to be afraid of revealing it.

Let me put it this way, even when Schmidt wasn't outright ashamed of his Jewish ancestry, he wasn't really proud of it either, at least it seems so. Thus he wasn't super comfortable when talking about this part of his ancestry, didn't like dwelling in thinking about it. The reality is that many people deny, hide, or are ashamed of a certain portion/type of their ancestry. We have to keep in mind that Schmidt came from a totally different world where having Jewish blood was considered a "blemish", "stain". It's difficult to knock off certain cultural influences that were imprinted on someone's mind. Anyway, many well-meaning people don’t know how to define Jews, they don't want to hurt feelings, say something that (in their mind), is deemed offensive, such as Jewish being an "ethnicity". They're afraid, if they consider Jews, not like the "regular" Germans ( or Poles, English, Russians for that matter) they're racist and excluding Jews from their "Germanness". Surely, the German Jews were German but still something of their own. They had their own subculture with their own literature, music, food, their own sense of humor. Jewish people even developed their own German-language Yiddish. Hence, denying that there is such as thing as an "ethnic Jew" means denying the Jewish history and experience. Even when it's well-intentioned, it doesn't reflect reality, hence is in a way disrespectful. And let's not pretend is if for the most part of Jewish presence in Europe they weren't the "others", or the "Semites".

[Yetos]

Again there is no 2% of GDP payments to NATO. It is recommended that each country spend at least 2% of their GDP on their own forces. trump has managed to confuse everybody on this point.

Yes the last years Greece spends more than USA for her defence,
at 2020 2021 has the biggest ratio.

When some others Natoic expect free help and blaim Greece.

[Yetos]

You forget that Russia has a GDP of the Benelux. And that 60% of the incomes depends on gas and oil.
There are alternatives, Qatar for example. Of course this all can be though. But I'm convinced we are not condemned.

Exactly as you say.
The more expencive gas and oil. the more richer Russia and USA.
East Med and Green pipelines are must for Europe,

the new search of a pipeline from Alexandroupolis to Talin (already to Constanza Romania)
gives European independence even to Far Baltic sea by connectiing them with Middle East and Africa

The game is not Ukraine.
The game is another WW in Europe. this time not for oil. but for gas and energy.
Ukraine is the Helen of troyan war

[bigsnake49]

Exactly as you say.
The more expencive gas and oil. the more richer Russia and USA.
East Med and Green pipelines are must for Europe,

the new search of a pipeline from Alexandroupolis to Talin (already to Constanza Romania)
gives European independence even to Far Baltic sea by connectiing them with Middle East and Africa

Are you talking about the LNG terminal in Alexandroupolis? That will help but what will really help is the pipeline from the Israel/Lebanon/Cyprus sector. But that is 3 years from now if they started now.

[Yetos]

Are you talking about the LNG terminal in Alexandroupolis?

Not only.
the pipeline from Alexandroupolis to Poseidon can work oposite direction,
Alexandroupolis already connected with Burgas, and burgas soon unite with Constanza romania.

East Med is to carry from Arab/Persian gulf to Israel, from Saudi to Egypt, and both unite to Cyprus to Greece.


I repeat, Ukraine, no matter the rights of a country etc etc. is not the game.
the game is elsewhere.
Myceneans did not went to Troy only for Helen.
neither Troyans were innocent

[Northener]

Actually the Russians do not support Putin. There was an article about it and particularly the younger people are extremely skeptical of Putin's assertions that the West is going to attack Russia. With the Internet people have access to information and the information they are getting is making them very doubtful of Putin's motives. But change will not come from them, it will come from the oligarchs and the intelligence services.

The media in Russia are following the Kremlin line totally. Opposition is not there, yes in a camp like Navalny.
As such a sign that the youth is sceptic.
It depends if the Ukrainian military even is capable of going into guerrilla. At the moment it's fully shock and awe. And the Russians are on the brink of capturing Kiev...
When it's roll over than this will be celebrated as a victory for Putin in Russia....the neo czar.

[bigsnake49]

The media in Russia are following the Kremlin line totally. Opposition is not there, yes in a camp like Navalny.
As such a sign that the youth is sceptic.
It depends if the Ukrainian military even is capable of going into guerrilla. At the moment it's fully shock and awe. And the Russians are on the brink of capturing Kiev...
When it's roll over than this will be celebrated as a victory for Putin in Russia....the neo czar.

The Russian people will not rise to overthrow Putin and their media is a puppet for the government.

But as I said earlier occupying a poor country is a losing proposition. You broke it, you bought it. You occupy them you have to feed them.

[Yetos]

@bigsnake
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2...2020-30-en.pdf

[Silesian]

Anyone know what's in store for Taiwan? Is US bringing back the draft for only vaccinated recruits?

[bigsnake49]

Anyone know what's in store for Taiwan? Is US bringing back the draft for only vaccinated recruits?

If wars were fought on the ground with AK-47s and AR-15s then yes they would bring back the draft. New military equipment is increasing sophisticated that requires extensive training. So no. I have no idea why you brought up vaccinations. All military recruits undergo extensive vaccinations against all kinds of diseases particularly when they go exotic places like Afghanistan or Iraq.

[real expert]

........... His agenda inclusive destabilization of the West, through supporting he authoritarian populist, is unfolding further.....

You're speaking from our Western perspective and standpoint. But you have to put yourself in the shoes of the Russians and look at their narrative and "justification". From the Russian perspective, Ukraine is a puppet state that is being used by the West to seek confrontation and destabilize Russia as they did with Syria, Iraq, Libya. According to Putin NATO poses a threat to Russia and its security. Therefore the Kremlin insists that the NATO expansion towards its borders poses an unacceptable challenge to its policy of so-called "indivisible security." Plus they say that Russia is taking back what's rightfully Russia's.

[Silesian]

If wars were fought on the ground with AK-47s and AR-15s then yes they would bring back the draft. New military equipment is increasing sophisticated that requires extensive training. So no. I have no idea why you brought up vaccinations. All military recruits undergo extensive vaccinations against all kinds of diseases particularly when they go exotic places like Afghanistan or Iraq.

You mean it will be different from genocidal wars in Phillipines 1899 and the weapons of mass destruction war, so many innocent people died in those wars.

[bigsnake49]

You're speaking from our Western perspective and standpoint. But you have to put yourself in the shoes of the Russians and look at their narrative and "justification". From the Russian perspective, Ukraine is a puppet state that is being used by the West to seek confrontation and destabilize Russia as they did with Syria, Iraq, Libya. According to Putin NATO poses a threat to Russia and its security. Therefore the Kremlin insists that the NATO expansion towards its borders poses an unacceptable challenge to its policy of so-called "indivisible security." Plus they say that Russia is taking back what's rightfully Russia's.

And you seem to support that narrative. Syria was not destabilized by the West. The Syrian people rose against Assad then Russia and Iran propped him up as they propped up his father before him Then ISIS happened then Turkey intervened. It became and still is a mess. Meanwhile the Syrian people suffered.

[real expert]

And you seem to support that narrative. Syria was not destabilized by the West. The Syrian people rose against Assad then Russia propped him up as they propped up his father before him Then ISIS happened then Turkey intervened. It became and still is a mess. Meanwhile the Syrian people suffered.

I'm showing both perspectives. Nothing wrong with that.

[bigsnake49]

You mean it will be different from genocidal wars in Phillipines 1899 and the weapons of mass destruction war, so many innocent people died in those wars.

First of all I never supported the Vietnam war the Iraq War or even the Afghanistan War. Did you support Saddam's ethnic cleansing of the Kurds and Basra Shiites?

[firetown]

I honestly do not see how Russia cannot go down for good after this atrocity.

[bigsnake49]

Anyway, we are getting way off into the weeds. This is about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I suspect we will have a massive influx of Ukrainian refugees into Europe. Is Europe ready for them?

[bicicleur 2]

You're speaking from our Western perspective and standpoint. But you have to put yourself in the shoes of the Russians and look at their narrative and "justification". From the Russian perspective, Ukraine is a puppet state that is being used by the West to seek confrontation and destabilize Russia as they did with Syria, Iraq, Libya. According to Putin NATO poses a threat to Russia and its security. Therefore the Kremlin insists that the NATO expansion towards its borders poses an unacceptable challenge to its policy of so-called "indivisible security." Plus they say that Russia is taking back what's rightfully Russia's.

Speaking about perspective and standpoint, do you think Putin believes his own words when he says he's liberating Ukraine from a Nazi regime?
I think he's smarter than that and I don't think we should consider or take serious any such perspective and standpoint.

[firetown]

Anyway, we are getting way off into the weeds. This is about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I suspect we will have a massive influx of Ukrainian refugees into Europe. Is Europe ready for them?

Why wouldn't Europe be ready for them?