Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?
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Vallicanus
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@Riverman
Looking at Tomenable's table above, how Russian was Crimea before the late 19th century?
Tatars were three-quarters or more of the Crimean population till the later 19th century.
Looking at Tomenable's table above, how Russian was Crimea before the late 19th century?
Tatars were three-quarters or more of the Crimean population till the later 19th century.
The current Crimean population is in any case no more Ukrainian than Russian. So given the historical context and current situation, any conquest of the Ukraine would be more of a catastrophy for the current inhabitants than remaining in the Russian Federation. Basically, just like in Donbas, I expect more traumatised and displaced people from giving these territories back to the Ukraine than letting it being part of Russia. Probably some Crimeans would even prefer independence, probably that would even be a 2nd best solution to the problem, who knows. But bringing them back under the control of the current Selenski regime, is for sure nothing "nice" to do these people. Its also drastically against vital Russian interests, which brings me to the conclusion there is no sort of moral or humane argument for bringing them back, even less by force, under Ukrainian control.
This is one of the instances when the people from Democracy Now made a valuable analysis of the geostrategical situation:
Just like I said, better make peace soon, better take negotiations serious and don't start the 3rd World War. I have to add: I hope so much that the European leaders stay strong and oppose the American and some Eastern European warmongers and make their desire clear, that they want to build the Russians a diplomatic bridge to peace. I know the Americans and some Eastern Europeans, especially the Poles, will press hard for taking even more aggressive and hostile measures against Russia, and to prevent any peaceful, diplomatic solution from happening. But as much I do hope that the European leaders which are at least somewhat more reasonable than the American cowboys block this and don't let themselves dragged into this catastrophy.
Don't start World War III for the American warmonger.
A simple question: Who of you really thinks, honestly, that a conquest by the Ukrainians would be perceived as some sort of liberation by the majority of the inhabitants of Donbas and Crimea? Seriously, that would be a foreign conquest, by all means. It would be no liberation.
bigsnake49
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Inconvenient truths. The Tatars were slaughtered by the Russians, particularly by the butcher Stalin. If your historical horizon is longer than 100 years they have absolutely no historical claim.
bigsnake49
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They don't want the Russians either. It's only the Russian speaking politicians of the Donbas and Donetsk that want to be part of Russia. Russia will the pariah of the whole wide world whereas billions will be poured into Ukraine for reconstruction. Which country would you want to be in? Also remember that there are Ukrainians in those two provinces, not just Russians. So what happens to them?
Since the pro-Russians/Russians in the rest of Ukraine being persecuted, I'd say they should stay/go to those new Russian provinces and vice versa, for those which can't stand the respective regime.
A lot will stay in their homes, even if they don't like Putin or Selenski regime respectively, but some might choose.
I see in any case no better or more fair solution. Anyone denying that millions of pro-Russian Ukrainian citizens still exist, despite all the phased propaganda and purged media, is in denial.
To give the Russian elements a clearly defined territory is the best solution. Then the majority of the Ukrainians can develop all the quicker the way they want and those pro-Russians which can't stand that have options too.
You think living together after this war hopefully ends soon will get any easier than before?
An Ukrainian reconquest would just cause more suffering and refugees. Its just about "Ukrainian greatness" and the anti-Russian grudge which keeps this going, no "liberation" of suppressed people.
Riverman, you could make some money:
https://www.vice.com/en/article/epxken/russian-tiktok-influencers-paid-propaganda
https://www.vice.com/en/article/epxken/russian-tiktok-influencers-paid-propaganda
Vallicanus
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Vallicanus
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Don't worry.
If the USA pulls the plug on NATO your beloved Russians will be parking their tanks on the Atlantic coast of Europe.
If the USA pulls the plug on NATO your beloved Russians will be parking their tanks on the Atlantic coast of Europe.
Tomenable
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45 Russian "diplomats" to be expelled:
https://www.gov.pl/web/special-services/45-russian-diplomats-to-be-expelled
https://www.gov.pl/web/special-services/45-russian-diplomats-to-be-expelled
That's a piece of nonsense-propaganda. Just because the Russians decided to invade Ukraine, to prevent American troops on their Southern border, their pro-Russian minority in Donbas being expelled and Crimea taken away, the sanctions never lifted - which is bad enough, like I said all the time, they don't plan to "conquer Europe to the Atlantic". They are not even capable of doing that and can be happy if they manage to control Ukraine. Such claims are just beyond ridiculous and being only brought up by anti-Russian propagandists.
I was obviously not for Russia invading Ukraine, I think its wrong and a humane catastrophy for not good enough reasons. But talking about the ongoing war and the one sided, biased American dominated propaganda, one has to be realistic and more objective. The Ukrainian regime is, overall, not on higher moral ground at all, because its their actions which led to this escalation and its their refusal of taking negotiations seriously which causes this war to escalate even further and being dragged on. The war is wrong, so are both sides. The one sided anti-Russian propaganda is what makes me angry, because its an unfair nonsense portrayal of what really happens there and in the end sheer warmongering for World War III and even more dependence of the Europeans from the American overlord.
Olaf, stay strong:
https://www.arte.tv/de/afp/neuigkei...-oel-und-gas-laesst-sich-nicht-sofort-beenden
At least some politicians are still accountable and no short-sighted warmongers, like the USA and Poland in particular.
Don't let Europe be dragged into their dirty war fames. Don't let Europe being blackmailed and pushed into an escalation.
The Americans should have no excuse for their dangerous gambling. Its not the Europeans which demand the escalation of this war, not at all.
Ask the Germans, the French...
We want to help the victims of this war and an end to this war as soon as possible, not escalating to World War III.
https://www.arte.tv/de/afp/neuigkei...-oel-und-gas-laesst-sich-nicht-sofort-beenden
At least some politicians are still accountable and no short-sighted warmongers, like the USA and Poland in particular.
Don't let Europe be dragged into their dirty war fames. Don't let Europe being blackmailed and pushed into an escalation.
The Americans should have no excuse for their dangerous gambling. Its not the Europeans which demand the escalation of this war, not at all.
Ask the Germans, the French...
We want to help the victims of this war and an end to this war as soon as possible, not escalating to World War III.
for which country would you fight? what would that country have to do different? i think people in western europe are completely spoiled by wealth that they don't know anymore how good they have it.
That's part of the problem, as is the "post-heroic" education and new "gender roles" among many things. But its more than that, because many Western states and governments don't represent the will of the people as much, as that people would be ready to sacrifice anything for it. Add to that, the constant media argumentation and educational tone of "power, state and politicians" being generally bad or problematic.
Belgium in particular is of course a special case, its whole history and background is.
Northener
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If you see the following fragment from Dugin, Putin's ideological Rasputin, the context is clear. He is visible relieved about the war. 'Now we are on an island' and he seems to be glad. It's so funded in an extremist hate towards liberal democracy, "the seapowers". It's same as in the past with for example Lenin, they absorb western theory and then they construct an anti-these, full of resentment... Dugin and Putin want to turn the clock back to czaristic times. That's the real agenda of the Kremlin...it's an extreme collectivistic even totalitarian aim...
Dugin is not Putin and what else should they do? Cry about how they being betrayed by the West, the USA in particular? That's something they did for years and nobody cared, but probably just laughed. That's the Russia the US policy created. They alienated and betrayed the Russians on every occasion, Biden personally in particular. Have you heard what he told Putin over the years? How he humiliated and mocked him, on every occasion? He represents the American arrogance the best, his whole life does.
Northener
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What about building up their own country in stead of attack other ones? Why is there need to be an empire? Why is there a need to conquer Kyiv? You know what is is: superpower wannabe madness.
It was the free will of the Ukrainians to choose a route to Europe in stead of Russia. And I can imagine that I guess the liberal democratic concept is more attractive than Putin/Dugin's alternative. But free will of a country is not permitted....
And liberation, denazification, and unification with a brother folk (even the same folk) has ended in: who cares bomb the shit out of them. With three cheers from the Alps! Because those poor Putin was treated so badly. It's such a friendly, mild, person....so threatened badly by the Americans and Europeans. They made a devil out of him, but he had only good aims....come on Riverman dream on.
Ukraine is obviously not just another country, that's ridiculous for the Russian case. Its not like Poland or even the Baltic states. That's a completely different ballpark.
The other issue: Who says they want to conquer Kiev to occupy it? If they do, they only do it, because the Selenski regime refuses to negotiate in a serious and accountable manner. The Selenski regime, with the Ukrainian oligarchs and the USA in the background, purged the country, did indoctrinate it in an anti-Russian, hostile way and the country was supposed to become weaponised against Russia by the USA. That's just what happened.
This conflict is not about being megalomaniac, or being cruel, or whatever, its about concrete security, economical and friendly minorities interests. To blame it all on Putin and "wannabe madness": That's crazy.
There were plenty of peaceful options, for both sides, to solve that conflict, but Ukraine, not Russia, did refuse them all.
You mean after billions of money flew into the country for propaganda, the oligarchs and the US services manipulated the public and the Ukrainian government purged the country from opposing views?
I don't mind the Ukrainians to choose their route to Europe, but not that way, not in these borders. Should the Western and Central Ukrainians, which are primarily behind these plans, and want it, go, but leave the pro-Russian East behind. Simple as that.
I don't care for countries. Countries are just pieces of land. I care for people. And if the people in the East, especially those in Donbas and Crimea, prefer to join Russia, they should be able to do so. Its not even a Russian suppresion or force, rather, they liberated them from an Ukrainian state they didn't wanted to be part of.
Of course, I would have preferred a truly free and democratic Ukraine, in which the people could have decided, on their own, and region by region, what they want to do. Without the pressure from Kiev, without the pressure from Moscow. But the massive manipulation in the Ukraine by the oligarchs, the Selenski regime and the USA, as well as in Donbas the takeover of pro-Russians, prevented that in both areas, it was, unfortunately, never a real option.
It should have been, because I'm all for the right of self-determination for a people in such a situation. It would be, in any case, being preferable to fight this out with all the losses and victims. As things are, the Ukrainian parts which are clearly pro-Western and anti-Russian by now should have the right to go their way, but they should leave the East alone and with Russia. That's by far the best solution for all sides. Its about people, not "a state".
If snipers hide in a building, the building gets levelled. That's the rule of war, its no cruelty as an end in itself, its no genocide, its no deliberate attack on civilians, like the American propaganda claims. You can see the Russians helping the civilians and bringing them food etc., once they got "liberated" and an area being secured, militarily. The acts you are talking about are the results of intensive fighting and the Ukrainians using civilian structures as their hideout and fighting base.
To use that against the idea of ethnic brotherhood and what else, these necessities of war, is just obscene. It doesn't contradict anything.
An appartment block with artillery at its feet and dozens of snipers on its floors is a military target, whether there are civilians inside of it or close by, or not. That's nothing the Russians choose, its this sort of urban warfare. So far I have not heard of a single proven case in which the Russians deliberately, intentionally, killed innocent ethnic Russian civilians.
There is a new movie on World War II, the British trying to destroy the GESTAPO headquarter in Kopenhagen. You know what they hit instead? A school. The allies killed and destroyed a lot of civilians in World War II, deliberately, intentionally, but in this case, it was an accident.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Carthage
You think the Russians can prevent any such accidents from happening?
The USA weren't able to do it, anywhere, with their precision guided material, under much better and more safe (for them) circumstances. That's just war itself. Its no war crime, its no genocide, its urban warfare as such which causes this.
He worked for the legitimate Russian interests. That's what he did, that's what he does. Its not bad, its not good, its the way it is, and people which can think, can predict some outcomes and reactions. The American arrogance, primarily the American, not the European, led to the alienation of Russia from the West. That was unnecessary, it was preventable, it was stupid.
I'm not saying Putin is such a great man or always doing right, he doesn't, and we know he can become brutal. But he, usually, tried to achieve legitimate, limited goals, for the Russian state and people, for the Russian interests. Oftentimes the "minimal approach" I'd say. The way the USA and Biden in particular mistreated him, at a time he was still open to talks and cooperation, is a complete failure and disgrace to the arrogant US diplomacy. Its inexcusable and it will fall back on the USA big time. The United States will regret it. Probably even Biden lives long enough to regret it.
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