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Thread: Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bicicleur 2 View Post
    Speaking about perspective and standpoint, do you think Putin believes his own words when he says he's liberating Ukraine from a Nazi regime?
    I think he's smarter than that and I don't think we should consider or take serious any such perspective and standpoint.
    Pretext. The words that he uttered couple of days ago as to Russia's historical right to Ukraine are what he believes. The rest are excuses that nobody buys.

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    Quote Originally Posted by real expert View Post
    You're speaking from our Western perspective and standpoint. But you have to put yourself in the shoes of the Russians and look at their narrative and "justification". From the Russian perspective, Ukraine is a puppet state that is being used by the West to seek confrontation and destabilize Russia as they did with Syria, Iraq, Libya. According to Putin NATO poses a threat to Russia and its security. Therefore the Kremlin insists that the NATO expansion towards its borders poses an unacceptable challenge to its policy of so-called "indivisible security." Plus they say that Russia is taking back what's rightfully Russia's.
    First of all it was the choice of Ukrainians themselves to 'overthrow' a pro Russian government and a change to a pro-European government in 2014. That was not what the EU or NATO forced up on.

    Secondly we have seen the real face of Putin, with a revanchist, pure nationalistic (the unification of 'Rus' in de cradle Kiev, some claim from 1000 years ago) agenda. That was probably on his mind since 1991 (fall of the SU). This form of authoritarian populism is anti open, liberal democracy, and is trying to destabilize it.

    So the "Putin-versteher" as it was popular especially in Germany has imo only lead to legitimizing thought and an understatement of the aggression from the side of Putin c.s. We have faced the real danger now real expert.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    First of all I never supported the Vietnam war the Iraq War or even the Afghanistan War. Did you support Saddam's ethnic cleansing of the Kurds and Basra Shiites?
    Both me and my wife of 37 years were raised in a cult. Voting, military service, University, strictly forbidden unless we wanted to be shunned by are friends and family. We left, but I still try and be neutral. Encouraged my boys to choose for themselves (University)and varsity sports (also forbidden)
    Suum cuique---Rubiconem suum


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    Quote Originally Posted by Northener View Post
    First of all it was the choice of Ukrainians themselves to 'overthrow' a pro Russian government and a change to a pro-European government in 2014. That was not what the EU or NATO forced up on.

    Secondly we have seen the real face of Putin, with a revanchist, pure nationalistic (the unification of 'Rus' in de cradle Kiev, some claim from 1000 years ago) agenda. That was probably on his mind since 1991 (fall of the SU). This form of authoritarian populism is anti open, liberal democracy, and is trying to destabilize it.

    So the "Putin-versteher" as it was popular especially in Germany has imo only lead to legitimizing thought and an understatement of the aggression from the side of Putin c.s. We have faced the real danger now real expert.
    I am honestly so disgusted with what I see happening, I try to focus on that. So as for Germany... I wished I could express surprise, but I am desensitized.
    Ukraine should become an official EU candidate and receive proper protection.
    NATO needs to justify it's "membership fees" by solving this.
    What did the people of the Ukraine do to deserve this?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silesian View Post
    Both me and my wife of 37 years were raised in a cult. Voting, military service, University, strictly forbidden unless we wanted to be shunned by are friends and family. We left, but I still try and be neutral. Encouraged my boys to choose for themselves (University)and varsity sports (also forbidden)
    A good father doesn't pass on his own confusion

  6. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by real expert View Post
    If the Ukrainian folks want to be an independent country, it seems like they’re going to have to fight for their independence on the battlefield. I could be wrong, but I assume that overall the Russian people are not keen on the war in Ukraine. However, this can change when the Russian public gets the impression that the "whole" world and especially the West is against them. The bottom line is that these geopolitical games will only benefit certain groups while the people in the middle of this will have to pay.
















    What do you think about the claim that "Every population has the government it deserves"?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bicicleur 2 View Post
    Speaking about perspective and standpoint, do you think Putin believes his own words when he says he's liberating Ukraine from a Nazi regime?
    I think he's smarter than that and I don't think we should consider or take serious any such perspective and standpoint.
    That is a frame that is not fallen from the sky. Around ww2 there was really an active fascist movement in the Ukraine. So Putin is using an old familiar label that causes a connotation in Russia....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banderites

    PS and there is a fraction within the Ukrainian nationalist that still uses that label:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-30655046

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    Quote Originally Posted by firetown View Post
    A good father doesn't pass on his own confusion
    Thank you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by firetown View Post
    I am honestly so disgusted with what I see happening, I try to focus on that. So as for Germany... I wished I could express surprise, but I am desensitized.
    Ukraine should become an official EU candidate and receive proper protection.
    NATO needs to justify it's "membership fees" by solving this.
    What did the people of the Ukraine do to deserve this?
    Not with Crimaia. Russiawould not leave Crimaia and Sevastoupolis.
    If Ukraine agreed to leave Crimaia and Azof sea. them today could be EC member.
    ΟΘΕΝ ΑΙΔΩΣ OY EINAI
    ΑΤΗ ΛΑΜΒΑΝΕΙΝ ΑΥΤΟΙΣ
    ΥΒΡΙΣ ΓΕΝΝΑΤΑΙ
    ΝΕΜΕΣΙΣ ΚΑΙ ΤΙΣΗ ΑΚΟΛΟΥΘΟΥΣΙ ΔΕ

    When there is no shame
    Divine blindness conquers them
    Hybris (abuse, opprombium) is born
    Nemesis and punishment follows.

    Εχε υπομονη Ηρωα
    Η τιμωρια δεν αργει.

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    To make one thing clear I‘m against the war in Ukraine and against the senseless shed of blood. But that doesn't mean we should ignore the Russian perspective whether we like it or not. Russia isn't a nobody that can be pushed around, it's a nuclear power.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Northener View Post
    First of all it was the choice of Ukrainians themselves to 'overthrow' a pro Russian government and a change to a pro-European government in 2014. That was not what the EU or NATO forced up on.

    Secondly we have seen the real face of Putin, with a revanchist, pure nationalistic (the unification of 'Rus' in de cradle Kiev, some claim from 1000 years ago) agenda. That was probably on his mind since 1991 (fall of the SU). This form of authoritarian populism is anti open, liberal democracy, and is trying to destabilize it.

    So the "Putin-versteher" as it was popular especially in Germany has imo only lead to legitimizing thought and an understatement of the aggression from the side of Putin c.s. We have faced the real danger now real expert.
    I talk with Russians and not only about them. According to these Russians, I spoke with, Western people are being fed with anti-Russian propaganda. Hence many Westerners are anti-Russian, Russiaphobes who think that Russians are the eternal bad guys, the villains. In the real world, things are more complicated and we should refrain from quickly putting people in boxes such as Putin-versteher or anti-Russian haters. I'm against the war in Ukraine anyway.

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    Quote Originally Posted by firetown View Post
    What do you think about the claim that "Every population has the government it deserves"?

    There is anelement of truth in that statement but talking in absolutes, is usually wrong. Some people don't deserve the government they have because they never voted for it.












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    1 members found this post helpful.
    BERLIN (Reuters) - The chief of the German army vented his frustration over what he sees as the long-running neglect of military readiness in his country in an unusual public rant a few hours after Russia invaded Ukraine, adding that the army was in bad shape.
    Russian forces invaded Ukraine by land, air and sea on Thursday, confirming the worst fears of the West with the biggest attack by one state against another in Europe since World War Two.
    "In my 41th year of peace-time service, I would not have thought that I would have to experience a war," Lieutenant General Alfons Mais said on LinkedIn on Thursday.
    "And the Bundeswehr, the army which I have the honour to command, is standing there more or less empty-handed. The options we can offer the government in support of the alliance are extremely limited."

    Commentators on LinkedIn praised Mais for his "brutally honest" words, many of them backing his veiled criticism of consecutive German governments that have been blamed for not fulfilling NATO's targets for military spending.
    Germany in January offered to supply 5,000 military helmets to Ukraine to help defend against possible invasion - an offer Kyiv mayor and former world champion boxer Vitali Klitschko dismissed as "a joke".


    So generous of the Germans to send 5,000 helmets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by real expert View Post
    I talk with Russians and not only about them. According to these Russians, I spoke with, Western people are being fed with anti-Russian propaganda. Hence many Westerners are anti-Russian, Russiaphobes who think that Russians are the eternal bad guys, the villains. In the real world, things are more complicated and we should refrain from quickly putting people in boxes such as Putin-versteher or anti-Russian haters. I'm against the war in Ukraine anyway.
    ...and the Russians are fed anti-West Propaganda plus there is a tendency to defend one's own country, right or wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    ...and the Russians are fed anti-West Propaganda plus there is a tendency to defend one's own country, right or wrong.
    That's the point. People are being pitted against each other.

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    Quote Originally Posted by real expert View Post
    There is anelement of truth in that statement but talking in absolutes, is usually wrong. Some people don't deserve the government they have because they never voted for it.











    Who were the initial enablers?

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    Quote Originally Posted by real expert View Post
    I talk with Russians and not only about them. According to these Russians, I spoke with, Western people are being fed with anti-Russian propaganda. Hence many Westerners are anti-Russian, Russiaphobes who think that Russians are the eternal bad guys, the villains. In the real world, things are more complicated and we should refrain from quickly putting people in boxes such as Putin-versteher or anti-Russian haters. I'm against the war in Ukraine anyway.
    I didn't take the stance that we must not look trough the eyes of the Russians, so fare possible. And I'm not trying to put people in boxes.

    I only see the result that too much Putin-Understanding has lead to a kind of 'misleading'. We have seen Putin in the face and imo this is ugly.

    Verstehen soll kein Verzeihen sein!

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    Pretext. The words that he uttered couple of days ago as to Russia's historical right to Ukraine are what he believes. The rest are excuses that nobody buys.
    It's not excuses.
    He doesn't care for execuses for what he's doing.
    It's part of his desinformation campaign focusing on his own Russian civilians.

    And the words he uttered about historical rights are the same words Hitler used to justify his annexations.

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    Quote Originally Posted by firetown View Post
    Why wouldn't Europe be ready for them?
    Europe may be ready.
    The juridical framework isn't.
    And that is because of international laws that have to many loopholes which have been abused on a large scale during decades.
    Everything must be regulated by laws nowadays.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    Again there is no 2% of GDP payments to NATO. It is recommended that each country spend at least 2% of their GDP on their own forces. trump has managed to confuse everybody on this point.
    Classic "Free Rider" problem. Those countries that do pay 2% are subsidizing those that don't. It becomes an Opportunity Cost given those countries that don't spend 2% then can spend more resources on other things like. Trump didn't confuse anybody, he just laid out the truth for who are the "Free Riders" and who are not.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Palermo Trapani View Post
    Classic "Free Rider" problem. Those countries that do pay 2% are subsidizing those that don't. It becomes an Opportunity Cost given those countries that don't spend 2% then can spend more resources on other things like. Trump didn't confuse anybody, he just laid out the truth for who are the "Free Riders" and who are not.
    Trump is still confused about this. Nobody owes money to NATO. There is no payment due that they miss. Their credit score does not get dinged. For the 10th time it is a recommendation. If Hungary only spends 1%, Greece does not have to pick up the slack.

    BTW the only reason that Greece spends more than 2% is not because of NATO it's because they want to defend themselves against Turkey. The only reason the US is pending more than 2% is because the generals can't help themselves and go hog wild about huge expensive projects.

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    So is Russia really presenting themselves as the victim in this? it will be like the rapist presenting themselves as the victim. You see your honor she made me do it. She looked so sexy, I had to do it. If she were not so beautiful and sexy it would have never happened. I was the victim your honor.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsnake49 View Post
    Trump is still confused about this. Nobody owes money to NATO. There is no payment due that they miss. Their credit score does not get dinged. For the 10th time it is a recommendation. If Hungary only spends 1%, Greece does not have to pick up the slack.

    BTW the only reason that Greece spends more than 2% is not because of NATO it's because they want to defend themselves against Turkey. The only reason the US is pending more than 2% is because the generals can't help themselves and go hog wild about huge expensive projects.
    Well I can understand Greece and Turkey. But from the USA perspective, The Europeans, many of them have Economies that allow them to spend more. Think of what countries that spend more than 2%, since others are spending less, can do with those cost savings from NATO expenditures, they can put those dollars into investments in roads, bridges, health care, education, private sector economy, etc. Boris Johnson, the British PM has finally publicly stated that European dependence on Russian Oil and Gas has brought Putin into Meddling with European Politics. Go look at his quote. He finally publicly acknowledged what Trump told NATO about Germany under Merkel about 2018.

    Seize dependence on Russian oil and gas, Boris Johnson tells nations amid Ukraine attack (msn.com)

    Here is a partial video of Trump's comment back in 2018. You tube has a video of the full quote.

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/11/polit...ato/index.html

    The Wall Street Journal on 30 January 2022 this year in an article entitled "Before Ukraine Standoff, US Pitched its "freedom Gas" to Europe and Found Few taker." The article is behind a paywall but it does document even Joe Biden as VP to Obama pushed for EU and NATO allies to buy more Oil and Gas from US. Obama and his Green activist and countries like France and Germany did not want to be seen as buying Natural Gas from USA companies because of "Fracking." That is in the article. Rather, they choose to buy more from Russia (btw, doesn't France still have lots of Nuclear power?) Trump of course pushed for NATO to buy more from the USA and as the article documents, which I already alluded to, Poland saw dependency on Russia for Oil and Gas as geopolitical risk contrary to both its economic interest and its National security interest. They now have as their major supplier of LNG companies from the USA. Trump as best I recall never blasted Poland like he did Merkel and Germany. Poland spends 2% of GDP on NATO, Germany does not, Germany is overly dependent on Russia for Oil and Gas, Poland is not. So when Trump blasted NATO about Germany, it was never about pulling the USA out of NATO. That is the US media that had Trump derangement syndrome spouting BS. He was just being Trump and who he was really ticked off was Merkel. Now what got people in EU upset was that Trump is no diplomat and he said things in public that US politicians in the past never said. Ok, that was Trump.

    But when you consider what UK PM Boris Johnson said again about Europe's Dependency on Putin and Russia for its Oil and Gas is one reason Putin has been meddling in Europe's political affairs and this dependence is an economic and national security risk, Trump in substance, not form, was in fact correct. If Putin gets booted by the Russian people, and a Gorbachev type leader maybe emerges, then maybe the West can re-engage Russia (if Reagan could work with Gorbachev, then future leaders could work with a guy like him)

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    Quote Originally Posted by real expert View Post

    I agree, with you. Merkel has destroyed the once conservative CDU and "castrated" all the alpha male politicians, so to speak. Our mainstream media was only full of praise and behaved like a court reporter of her. Merkel is from East Germany, and from recalling reading she has a "Stasi Past". However, our current Chancellor, another leftist, isn't better. Germany like the USA and other Western countries has shifted strongly to left. The USA is the role model and where the USA usually goes Europe follows. Here's the thing, there are people who love the USA but don't like the politics there. For example, many people were highly critical of the wars under Bush or Obama. However, they weren't anti-American as such but just didn't like the geopolitics. And then there are the real anti-American folks out there. What I find rather puzzling is that many young Americans, especially the college-educated ones, express a lot of contempt for the USA, such as burning the US-American flag and whatnot. In my personal opinion, China is much more dangerous than Russia. Communist China poses a much bigger threat than Russia to the USA. When it comes to Ukraine, the situation is different.

    Real Expert: Thanks for your comment, yes I recognize what you are saying, what I perceived as ant-Americanism is often times more anti American geopolitics and foreign policy that involved regime change. This has been part of the Foreign policy with Bill Clinton (he endorsed those policies, but did not every implement them), Bush 2, and Obama. Hillary Clinton was perhaps the most hawkish of them all and was with Obama-Biden, also behind the takeout of Qaddafi and the attempt to takeout Assad.

    Interestingly, the USA had no new regime change wars under Trump. Trump did up the tougher policies towards China, while of course at the same time praising how tough and strong a leader Chairman Xi is. That is how he operates, but nobody has been tougher on China regarding unfair Trade, their currency manipulation, and he had the onions to call out China for possibly causing the COVID-19 pandemic do to a bio-weapons lab leak early on. Does anyone still think this was from a bat? He praised Kim as a tough leader, but at the same time he told him if he acts like Rocket Man, it will not end good for Kim in North Korea.

    And yes, I agree, Communist China is the greater geo-political threat for the world. They are 2nd largest economy in the world, have massive military and their ability to influence supply chains around the world is a problem.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Palermo Trapani View Post
    Real Expert: Thanks for your comment, yes I recognize what you are saying, what I perceived as ant-Americanism is often times more anti American geopolitics and foreign policy that involved regime change. This has been part of the Foreign policy with Bill Clinton (he endorsed those policies, but did not every implement them), Bush 2, and Obama. Hillary Clinton was perhaps the most hawkish of them all and was with Obama-Biden, also behind the takeout of Qaddafi and the attempt to takeout Assad.

    Interestingly, the USA had no new regime change wars under Trump. Trump did up the tougher policies towards China, while of course at the same time praising how tough and strong a leader Chairman Xi is. That is how he operates, but nobody has been tougher on China regarding unfair Trade, their currency manipulation, and he had the onions to call out China for possibly causing the COVID-19 pandemic do to a bio-weapons lab leak early on. Does anyone still think this was from a bat? He praised Kim as a tough leader, but at the same time he told him if he acts like Rocket Man, it will not end good for Kim in North Korea.

    And yes, I agree, Communist China is the greater geo-political threat for the world. They are 2nd largest economy in the world, have massive military and their ability to influence supply chains around the world is a problem.
    And that's the same thing he is doing with Putin now. He is applauding 'genius' Putin about his 'trick' of the 'peace mission' One bottom line of Trump is that he attracted to the authoritarian style and attitude. Were are the Reps of Reagan: Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall! Now they try to make the current president a lame duck in a very tricky situation, when the NATO is at stake (next target Baltics?) the US is factual in war. So plain anti- patriotic behavior of Trump c.s..

    The difference between China and Russia is that Xi, in Chinese line, is very willing, but cautious, not reckless, Putin is reckless now. And Putin has put much, much more effort to destabilize the West and specific USA.

    The troops are standing on the door of Kiev now, when the Ukranians go in resistance/ guerrilla we will see a bloody ware Putin has shown in Grozny and Syria not to resist to anything.....

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