Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

**MOESAN** · 02-04-22, 19:26

Riverman why do you write always Selenski in place of Zelenski or Zelensky. A mark of contempt? Z- in Slavic is different from S- etymologically.
That said, I'm not sure the Dombas question was so clear at first. How many TRUE Dombas people against Ukraina at first? (TRUE: not infiltred by Russian Russians).
Whatever the answer, the military action of Russia in allover Ukraina and since the beginning is sufficient to prove his real projects of Russian Empire, I think. The comparison with the Sudetes question during the Nazi period is very good, I think. I was against the American intervention in Iraq at the Sadam Hussein times, and I'm against the today Russian offensive in Ukraina. Nothing can justify it under this form.
Putin demands more to others than he demands to himself, concerning autodetermination.

**MOESAN** · 02-04-22, 19:32

Riverman why do you write always Selenski in place of Zelenski or Zelensky. A mark of contempt? Z- in Slavic is different from S- etymologically.
That said, I'm not sure the Dombas question was so clear at first. How many TRUE Dombas people against Ukraina at first? (TRUE: not infiltred by Russian Russians).
Whatever the answer, the military action of Russia in allover Ukraina and since the beginning is sufficient to prove his real projects of Russian Empire, I think. The comparison with the Sudetes question during the Nazi period is very good, I think. I was against the American intervention in Iraq at the Sadam Hussein times, and I'm against the today Russian offensive in Ukraina. Nothing can justify it under this form.
Putin demands more to others than he demands to himself, concerning autodetermination.

**Silesian** · 02-04-22, 19:38

Is Gazprom going to cut off gas, to Germany ?

**Riverman** · 02-04-22, 19:38

Originally Posted by MOESAN

Riverman why do you write always Selenski in place of Zelenski or Zelensky. A mark of contempt? Z- in Slavic is different from S- etymologically.
That said, I'm not sure the Dombas question was so clear at first. How many TRUE Dombas people against Ukraina at first? (TRUE: not infiltred by Russian Russians).
Whatever the answer, the military action of Russia in allover Ukraina and since the beginning is sufficient to prove his real projects of Russian Empire, I think. The comparison with the Sudetes question during the Nazi period is very good, I think. I was against the American intervention in Iraq at the Sadam Hussein times, and I'm against the today Russian offensive in Ukraina. Nothing can justify it under this form.
Putin demands more to others than he demands to himself, concerning autodetermination.

The Sudeten-German question was a shame, done by the allies to the Germans. Yes, the comparison is there, but it was even more of a crime to deny the Germans from Bohemia-Moravia their right to self-determination. When they protested peacefully, they were shot and arrested. The Austrian government at first couldn't believe what the allies have done to their citizens and German brethren over the "new border". Such new borders, if being fixed, should always be drawn according to the ethnic distribution, everything else causes just more troubles, suppression of one side or even wars.

Selenski is the usual form I read in German media:
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolodymyr_Selenskyj

**ihype02** · 02-04-22, 22:10

Originally Posted by Riverman

According to you Russia should just have ignored all the US interference and the Selenski regimes attacks on its friends and brethren. The problem is indeed that people which want to belong to another state being pressed into a construct, to which they don't want to belong anyway.
In this case the Russian ethnic and strategical interests are one and the same. There is no difference, which makes their claims all the more legitimate. The Ukrainians supresse and persecute the Russians, the atrocities and attacks on Donbas speak for itself. Its amazing how you try to ignore facts for creating your political anti-Russian narrative.
Fact is that the Ukrainians pushed forward, attacked Russians, and the Americans interfered and weaponised the Ukrainian nationalism against Russia. No ideological distortion can change that. I never said the Russians are innocent or played nice with the Ukrainians, they shouldn't have escalated to that level just like that, but like I said so often too: They were running out of options and the Ukrainians just attacked, provoked, just attacked, provoked and made clear they won't ever negotiate and consider legitimate Russian concerns and demands. That's ******** behaviour, which is why Putin got that angry. If you listen to Selenski, he is just an arrogant actor provoking and humiliating the Russian all day long, while persecuting in his own country and pressing for the escalation of the war. He never listens, he never respects the other side or its rightful demands. He did so 3 years, with the back up by Biden, and this caused this escalation.

Why are you spamming this thread with long ass paragraphs? You were caught here saying that Ukraine is using it's native population as a
shield when they have send millions of children and women as refugees and obligated the men to stay and fight. That speaks volume how biased you are in this topic.

Why should we trust you further?

As for the rest it's a "talk too much but speak so little" which SMELLS propaganda given my experience in arguing.

**Riverman** · 02-04-22, 22:54

Originally Posted by ihype02

Why are you spamming this thread with long ass paragraphs? You were caught here saying that Ukraine is using it's native population as a
shield when they have send millions of children and women as refugees and obligated the men to stay and fight. That speaks volume how biased you are in this topic.

Why should we trust you further?

As for the rest it's a "talk too much but speak so little" which SMELLS propaganda given my experience in arguing.

I rather care for arguments and logic. This is exactly the problem many people have these days, they think a conflict like this one can be explained in a sentence and there is just a "good guy and a bad guy". Guess what, that's wrong and just b*******.

Concerning the human shields argument, first its wrong they don't let the men leave with their families, because why should every Ukrainian citizen be cannon fodder for this regime? Another case of "not better than Russia".

And the "human shields" argument being used in a specific context, especially in Mariupol, where there were reports than some local Ukrainian militias did stop inhabitants from fleeing the scene. Similar incidents happened elsewhere, but its definitely not the Russians which prevented the people from leaving, more generally speaking.

**Vallicanus** · 02-04-22, 23:27

Originally Posted by Riverman

I rather care for arguments and logic. This is exactly the problem many people have these days, they think a conflict like this one can be explained in a sentence and there is just a "good guy and a bad guy". Guess what, that's wrong and just b*******.

Concerning the human shields argument, first its wrong they don't let the men leave with their families, because why should every Ukrainian citizen be cannon fodder for this regime? Another case of "not better than Russia".

And the "human shields" argument being used in a specific context, especially in Mariupol, where there were reports than some local Ukrainian militias did stop inhabitants from fleeing the scene. Similar incidents happened elsewhere, but its definitely not the Russians which prevented the people from leaving, more generally speaking.

It was the Russians who were preventing civilian evacuations so stop with your false spamming propaganda ramblings.

You might as well be a Russian bot.

Truth and the Kremlin have been strangers for generations.

**Vallicanus** · 02-04-22, 23:29

Riverman only cares about his own argument and his twisted pro-Putin logic.

**Tomenable** · 02-04-22, 23:42

List of countries which have territorial disputes with Russia and claim parts of Russian territory as rightfully their own territory:

https://belsat-eu.translate.goog/pl/...en&_x_tr_hl=pl

1) Azerbaijan
2) Belarus
3) Georgia
4) Abkhazia
5) Kazakhstan
6) Korea
7) China
8) Lithuania
9) Latvia
10) Mongolia
11) Norway
12) Finland
13) Estonia
14) Japan
15) Poland - https://dorzeczy-pl.translate.goog/o...en&_x_tr_hl=pl

Moreover:

"Russia also has many autonomous republics (Adygea, Altai, Bashkortostan, Buryatia, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Kalmykia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Karelia, Komi, Mari El, Mordovia, North Ossetia, Tatarstan, Tuva, Udmurtia, Chechnya, Khachenia , Chuvashia, Yakutia) and other national units (Nenets, Khanty-Mansiysk, Chukotka, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug), which also repeatedly expressed separatist tendencies.

By expressing its territorial claims and denying other countries and nations the right to exist, the Kremlin is opening up a veritable Pandora's Box, which could even lead to the fact that Russia itself will cease to exist within its present borders."

**Northener** · 02-04-22, 23:42

Originally Posted by Riverman

I rather care for arguments and logic. This is exactly the problem many people have these days, they think a conflict like this one can be explained in a sentence and there is just a "good guy and a bad guy". Guess what, that's wrong and just b*******.

Concerning the human shields argument, first its wrong they don't let the men leave with their families, because why should every Ukrainian citizen be cannon fodder for this regime? Another case of "not better than Russia".

And the "human shields" argument being used in a specific context, especially in Mariupol, where there were reports than some local Ukrainian militias did stop inhabitants from fleeing the scene. Similar incidents happened elsewhere, but its definitely not the Russians which prevented the people from leaving, more generally speaking.

Arguments and logic? You are, like in the Sudeten case, in the ethnocentric groove.

This quote from Mykola Riabchuk,

What Putin- and Riverman- does not understand, and the imperial myth precludes him from eventual understanding, is that Ukrainians live not in the 19th century of Russia but in the 21st century in Europe; that what unites them is primarily the future and not, like Russians, a nostalgic past; that they formed a political nation where all categories so dear to Mr Putin – like ‘blood and soil’, ‘ethnicity’, ‘faith’, ‘Slavonic brotherhood’ – are not the primary determinants of national loyalty and belonging. In fact, they are as irrelevant for their civic patriotism, as the categories of freedom and dignity for Putin's uncivic etatism.

That's the key. You defend Putin because you are reasoning likewise him, it is his 'right' to act the way he did....

Nothing to do with plain logic more with ideological convictions. And in that sense you are close to the Kremlin line.

**Tomenable** · 02-04-22, 23:45

Imagine those 15 countries + Ukraine (in total 16) partitioning defeated Russia, with help of Russia's own numerous separatist republics.

**ihype02** · 03-04-22, 00:19

Originally Posted by Tomenable

Imagine those 15 countries + Ukraine (in total 16) partitioning defeated Russia, with help of Russia's own numerous separatist republics.

Russia poking China?

Don't be ridiculous.

**Riverman** · 03-04-22, 01:11

Originally Posted by Northener

Arguments and logic? You see, like in the Sudeten case, in the ethnocentric groove.

You have no idea of what happened there, or if you have, you just don't care about what it meant for the people. It was a sheer catastrophy for the local German speaking population and the suppression and pressure on them was a horrible experience. Its not "ethnocentric" in the sense of only caring for the own ethnicity if caring for legitimate, justified claims for self-determination of a related people. Obviously any decent person would try to help its people - that doesn't have to mean that you want to oppress or hurt other people.

If Germany or France would just grab a piece of land in which your relatives live and remove all Dutch speakers from the administration, many public and private companies, ban the language as an official one, start persecuting and arresting all activists for the local people and shooting and arresting peaceful demonstrators, you wouldn't care, because its "ethnocentric" to do so?
Probably there are some individualists or better nihilists which don't care, but usually, decent people, care for other people and those of the same ethnictiy in particular.

**Tomenable** · 03-04-22, 01:12

Originally Posted by ihype02

Russia poking China?

Don't be ridiculous.

You misunderstood what I wrote - it is China which claims Russia's current territory as their own, not the other way around.

At least these red-colored territories of Russia (and perhaps even more of Russia's Far East and Siberia) are Chinese claims:

**Tomenable** · 03-04-22, 01:37

**Tomenable** · 03-04-22, 02:07

In occupied Kherson, Russian troops open live ammunition fire against a peaceful demonstration by civilians:

https://twitter.com/RussianWarCrime/...83432672546821 - the moment of opening fire recorded

**Tomenable** · 03-04-22, 02:10

You can see the frustration of Russian soldiers, they get beaten by the enemy so they take their frustration out on civilians.

**Tomenable** · 03-04-22, 03:43

Originally Posted by Riverman

but usually, decent people, care for other people and those of the same ethnictiy in particular.

I made a map of Russia divided into areas of high risk of ethnic-based separatism and low risk of such separatism.

Yellow = high risk of ethnic-based separatism
Green = low risk of ethnic-based separatism

Based on 2010 census data.

**Tomenable** · 03-04-22, 04:20

^^^ But apart from internal risk of separatism, there are also territorial claims by Russia's neighbours:

**Northener** · 03-04-22, 08:39

Originally Posted by Riverman

You have no idea of what happened there, or if you have, you just don't care about what it meant for the people. It was a sheer catastrophy for the local German speaking population and the suppression and pressure on them was a horrible experience. Its not "ethnocentric" in the sense of only caring for the own ethnicity if caring for legitimate, justified claims for self-determination of a related people. Obviously any decent person would try to help its people - that doesn't have to mean that you want to oppress or hurt other people.

If Germany or France would just grab a piece of land in which your relatives live and remove all Dutch speakers from the administration, many public and private companies, ban the language as an official one, start persecuting and arresting all activists for the local people and shooting and arresting peaceful demonstrators, you wouldn't care, because its "ethnocentric" to do so?
Probably there are some individualists or better nihilists which don't care, but usually, decent people, care for other people and those of the same ethnictiy in particular.

To care about people is to give everyone (with their differences) a place under the sun and a right to a decent life. So people are not 'a bishop on a chessboard' (Putin) or 'a color on a map' (Riverman).

The power of a democracy is precisely that you can deal with difference, even with a certain amount of enmity, without hitting each other's heads. All vasy not ideal, but everything better than the straitjacket of a totalitarian society. What is the difference between Putin or Milosevic, yes nukes...

The examples you give are just unimaginable, unless you want to get the old ghost out of the bottle again, unfortunately that has happened too often. It is no longer the case that the Bishop of Munster stood at the gates of Groningen to withdraw it to the Catholic faith (1672), and on which my ancestors had to hand in their rifles to the city council because they were Catholic .... What they before that, by the way, could practice as good and bad as it went (secretly). That time has passed, although the ghost of that time occasionally rears its head again.

Do you know what's going on in Mariupol? Now more than 150,000 people are in fact held hostage, deprived of water, food and water with a constant terror of bombs, beatings and rapes. That is the daily practice Riverman! The efforts of the Russian army are aimed at breaking the inhabitants. Whether they spoke Russian (which is often the case, even Zelensky speaks Russian at home) or Ukrainian. Does not matter.

But whoever, like Putin, now sows terror in Mariupol, reaps bitterness for many generations. So much for our 'care in practice for the ethnos' Riverman .... You get only misery with it.....

**Riverman** · 03-04-22, 10:40

Originally Posted by Northener

Do you know what's going on in Mariupol? Now more than 150,000 people are in fact held hostage, deprived of water, food and water with a constant terror of bombs, beatings and rapes. That is the daily practice Riverman! The efforts of the Russian army are aimed at breaking the inhabitants.

The situation is indeed horrible and the Ukrainians wanted a partisan style war, which is always dirty and creates a cruel atmosphere which leads to atrocities.
The Russians didn't wanted that war, don't forget that, ever. They only started it because Selenski didn't negotiate about the US-NATO presence, the suppression of Russians and the safety of Donbas, which got attacked. He refused to negotiate and ignored Minsk II. The Russians tried all diplomatic options before.
Never forget that!
And the bolded part of you comment is a blatant propaganda lie, because the Russians in Mariupol don't need to destroy the city to break the local people, but the Nationalist militias which hide between them!
And they need to do it because of the advanced sniper equipment these fighters got from the West!
Most of them are Western Ukrainians and mercenaries, no locals!
To describe these hard and horrible fights as intended "to break the local population" is such a sneaky lie and blatant cynicism!
The Russians hate that they have to do it, but the nationalist militias use the civilian structures for sniper attacks with advanced tools at hand.
Every reasonable and fair observer notes that. To distort the facts is unworthy behaviour.
No doubt horrible things being done by both sides in this war, it should have never started and end as soon as possible.
The problem is that Selenski with the Western Ukrainian nationalists and the USA in his back refuses to negotiate in a fair and serious manner, just like he did in the last three years.
That is the problem, that was the problem. He acted extremely hostile against Russia and the Russians, even though he was voted for by the Ukrainians to make peace...

The Russians do enough bad things, they escalated the war and so forth, commit atrocities as the war gets prolonged, just like the Ukrainians do. Peace is the only solution and what the Selenski-Biden alliance is doing is only good for escalating things even more. This was true when Selenski got elected, it became even more true once Biden was in office, these two just confronted Russia and sought war. That doesn't whitewash Russia at all, but it isn't just "black and white".

**Tomenable** · 03-04-22, 13:00

**Tomenable** · 03-04-22, 13:09

This joke is popular in Moscow now (typical Russian dark humor):

According to Putin, the special military operation is in fact a conflict between Russia and NATO for world domination. How does the situation look like right now? Russia has lost 15,000 dead soldiers 7 generals 500 tanks 200 aircraft and 1000 trucks. NATO has not yet arrived.

**Tomenable** · 03-04-22, 13:11

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia...-tipping-point

**Northener** · 03-04-22, 13:27

Originally Posted by Riverman

The situation is indeed horrible and the Ukrainians wanted a partisan style war, which is always dirty and creates a cruel atmosphere which leads to atrocities.
The Russians didn't wanted that war, don't forget that, ever. They only started it because Selenski didn't negotiate about the US-NATO presence, the suppression of Russians and the safety of Donbas, which got attacked. He refused to negotiate and ignored Minsk II. The Russians tried all diplomatic options before.
Never forget that!
And the bolded part of you comment is a blatant propaganda lie, because the Russians in Mariupol don't need to destroy the city to break the local people, but the Nationalist militias which hide between them!
And they need to do it because of the advanced sniper equipment these fighters got from the West!
Most of them are Western Ukrainians and mercenaries, no locals!
To describe these hard and horrible fights as intended "to break the local population" is such a sneaky lie and blatant cynicism!
The Russians hate that they have to do it, but the nationalist militias use the civilian structures for sniper attacks with advanced tools at hand.
Every reasonable and fair observer notes that. To distort the facts is unworthy behaviour.
No doubt horrible things being done by both sides in this war, it should have never started and end as soon as possible.
The problem is that Selenski with the Western Ukrainian nationalists and the USA in his back refuses to negotiate in a fair and serious manner, just like he did in the last three years.
That is the problem, that was the problem. He acted extremely hostile against Russia and the Russians, even though he was voted for by the Ukrainians to make peace...

The Russians do enough bad things, they escalated the war and so forth, commit atrocities as the war gets prolonged, just like the Ukrainians do. Peace is the only solution and what the Selenski-Biden alliance is doing is only good for escalating things even more. This was true when Selenski got elected, it became even more true once Biden was in office, these two just confronted Russia and sought war. That doesn't whitewash Russia at all, but it isn't just "black and white".

The militia hide is also a Kremlin PR. Because partly they are civilians and they live there.... Again I don't make it 'good' against 'evil'. As you have seen earlier I can see that the Azov Battalion has very radical elements (wiki):
:

Azov's founding member Andriy Biletsky, leader of the far right Social-National Assembly (SNA), had stated in 2010 that "the historic mission of our nation" was to lead the "white races of the world in a final crusade for their survival […] a crusade against the Semite-led Untermenschen", an ideology that political scientist Richard Sakwa traces to the National Integralism of 1920s and 1930s.[97] In 2014, political science lecturer Ivan Katchanovski commented to Radio Sweden on the founder's origins as Patriot of Ukraine, saying: "The SNA/PU [Patriot of Ukraine] advocates a neo-Nazi ideology along with ultranationalism and racism. The same applies to […] members of the Azov battalion and many football ultras and others who serve in this formation."

Nevertheless this is part of a tangle. The Kremlin has plaid a part in this. Based on dubious claims, it denies Ukraine's right to exist. That in itself fuels nationalism, because many Ukrainians have no appetite for Kremlin domination (nor are they per se Rus). In addition, Putin is constantly stirring up the Donbas. So action is reaction. That is not a good evil, but compare it with a wasp's nest where a stone is thrown.

So there we have the fundamental difference. I am convinced that in a democratic state several 'ethnicities' can coexist. And in the Ukraine we are in many cases dealing with a hybrid situation. So however you look at it whatever major misfortune you see it is Putin's decision to invade Ukraine, it is not a necessity. You can make it a necessity, but I don't share the argumentation underneath, because that's one of ethnicity (which is also arbitrary) and really from the idea of the restoration old Russia and it's sphere of influence. To me this is illegitimate.

So you can talk 'til you drop but at the core I think the authoritarian, repressive Putin regime should find its Waterloo and not impose its will on other countries.

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