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Thread: Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

  1. #1901
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    2 members found this post helpful.
    BTW in Poland liberals (Civic Platform) lost elections in 2015, being replaced by nationalists, in my opinion mainly because of the "Wiretapping Scandal". The "Wiretapping Scandal" of 2014 was when Civic Platform politicians were secretely recorded on tape while discussing in "Owl & Friends" restaurant in Warsaw.

    During that talk, one of the most important Civic Platforms government's politicians said (and it was recorded on secret tapes and published):

    "The Polish State exists only in theory. In fact it is just a pr*ck, an a*se and a pile of stones."

    ^^^
    In my opinion this - not anything else - is the main reason why they lost the 2015 election.

    Most of Poles simply prefer to live in a real state, not in a "state that exists only in theory".

    And I think supporters of AfD in Germany also don't want to live in a "pile of stones" theoretiical state.
    There are words which carry the presage of defeat. Defence is such a word. What is the result of an even victorious defence? The next attempt of imposing it to that weaker, defender. The attacker, despite temporary setback, feels the master of situation.

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    That secret tape recording also matched the narrative of one of opposition (against Civic Platform) politicians, who claimed:

    "Poland is a German-Russian condominium." - said Grzegorz Braun (right-wing opposition politician) around 2013

    ^^^ He was saying this even in 2013 before the secret tapes of 2014 about "Poland existing only in theory" were released.

    Civic Platform government's politicians said privately in "Owl & Friends" restaurant the same thing, which Braun said openly!

    So no wonder, that nationalist Law and Justice party won the 2015 election, if secret recordings of Civic Platform's politicians essentially confirmed the opposition's narrative that Civic Platform was acting like pawns and subjects of Germany and Russia, rather than like a government of an independent country.

    And in my opinion, after that scandal from 2014 Civic Platform should have dissolved itself and retire from politics due to shame.

    But they remained shameless even after it was revealed how our government really saw Poland (as "state existing only in theory").

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Speaking of German-Russian condominiums - Ukraine has just proven, that it is not one of them:

    https://www.dw.com/en/german-preside...ted/a-61447160


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    "The Russia I grew up in doesn't exist anymore" (10 April 2022):


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    Final report about the Smolensk 2010 has been presented. Conclusions are that the plane crashed because of explosion - it was an attack:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kv3c8H0P3o4



    ^^^
    Most likely Russians collaborated with Polish politicians associated with Donald Tusk. Or at least Tusk contributed to covering up the truth:

    (Tusk is the leader of this "Poland exists only theoretically" / "Poland is a German-Russian Condominium" political party - Civic Platform)



    I hope that all the traitors will sufffer consequences.

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    ^^^ Donald was partying hard in Brussels but has returned to Poland & to Polish politics last year:


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ailchu View Post
    the polish mindset.
    There is no such thing as one, united, Polish mindet.

    Why?

    Because in Poland 50% of the media is owned by foreign capital, and only 50% of the media is owned by Polish capital. This means that we are constantly bombarded by foreign points of view, foreign propaganda, etc. Chiefly German - because most of this 50% is in German hands.

    By contrast in your country - in Germany - 90% of the media is owned by German capital, and only 10% by foreign capital. This means that there is less of freedom of speech in Germany, and 90% of what German people read, is in line with the official government point of view.

    Perhaps pro-AfD media are also included in this 90%, unless they are owned by foreign capital (for instance, Russian).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomenable View Post
    You don't like this idea of one country from Lisbon to Vladivostok?

    My impression was you were quite pro-globalist / anti-ethnocentric!
    Hahahah for sure but not as a department of the Kremlin 🤪

    I'm a 'classic social democrat' Tomenable. So for a 'enlightened nation state'.

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    China up to Užice


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    Macron is the Pro-Russian one, not Le Pen:


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    Sane Russians don't want to die for a Madman Putler:


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomenable View Post
    Macron is the Pro-Russian one, not Le Pen:

    Putin paid lots of millions for Le Pen, pay back time?

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    I didn't expect Putin would dare to invade. Even though most of the forces were moved, even from the Far Eastern Military District.

    Initial successes at Gostomel airport, but also apparently the spearhead failed to reach that location in time. It seems they wanted to topple the government in Kiev within days. This failed totally, and in the North the population was very unfriendly, so they withdrew. In the South they had more success. But in general most of the population does not like them. This is something they got totally wrong.

    In general Russians failed to execute the modern warfare, they needed more UAV's..

    U.S. and NATO can send new weaponry to Ukraine indefinitely, it is small change/nothing to them. And now the image of the Russian army is damaged..

    If Russia are a paper tiger, so is China.. China still doesn't have such capacity of moving the troops around.

    Already for a decade, I heard opinions of various think thanks, that one of the big challenges of the 2020's will be to deal and secure the Russian nuclear arsenal after the estimated dissolution of Russia (which was to happen after Putin was no longer in power)..

    The West has secured in Ukraine an anti-Russian nation, and as strategists said long ago, without Ukraine Russia is not a power.
    On the other hand the Russians had the chance to exert their influence in Ukraine, and they failed.

    At the end of the day. Russia has served as a scarecrow for the expansion and the continued existence of NATO. Definitely if Russia is eliminated as a power, the likely will happen to China.

    In EU, some nations such as Poland due to the existence of Russian scarecrow have been allowed to act in a "sovereigntist" way. without Russia Poland will be stamped on. And that "50 %" of Polish owned media, will turn into 1 or whatever % of Polish media owned by the Poles..

    All in all, the elimination of Russia-China axis will also mean the elimination of the West, or the reformulation of the West. The entire concept of the nation state will be eliminated (as it is also a backward 18th-19th century concept), and the world will be run by international corporations, and nation states will be reduced to a mere formality, or be under the umbrella of an international organization.

    The globalization and elimination of all nations due to some of these events might be realized much sooner than anticipated. The only thing that can offset this is some sort of a radical event (i.e. nuclear war etc.).

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    "Hall of Fame" so far:

    Magomed Tushayev - Major General - 26 February 2022 - Commander of Chechen units of the National Guard
    Andrey Sukhovetsky - Major General - 28 February 2022 - Deputy Commander of 41st Combined Arms Army
    Vitaly Gerasimov - Major General - 8 March 2022 - Chief of staff of the 41st Combined Arms Army
    Andrei Kolesnikov - Major General - 11 March 2022 - Commander of the 29th Combined Arms Army
    Oleg Mityaev - Major General - 15 March 2022 - Commander of 150th Motorized Rifle Division
    Yakov Rezantsev - Lieutenant General - 25 March 2022 - Commander of 49th Combined Arms Army

    =====

    Donetsk Republic has admitted suffering 5244 killed or wounded until 7 April, and their units are less than 9% of the entire invasion force. If their casualties are proportional to their share in the invasion force, then total losses of the invaders are around 60,000 killed or wounded.

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    What is it? Lies at the bottom of the sea and didn't capture Odessa?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomenable View Post
    What is it? Lies at the bottom of the sea and didn't capture Odessa?
    as I read on Ukrainian sites: Neptun rules on seas, but not Moscow
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neptune_(mythology)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Northener View Post
    Putin paid lots of millions for Le Pen, pay back time?
    why should she?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bicicleur 2 View Post
    why should she?
    Do you think it was pure philanthropy of Putin....

    By the way Le Pen destroyed 1,2 mill pr material with a prominent photo of Le Pen meeting Putin

    Apparently this didn't worked out so well...

    Russian alt right meets French alt right

    https://www.liberation.fr/politique/...GQPI6ZWW44X3Q/
    Last edited by Northener; 16-04-22 at 08:44.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomenable View Post
    Which is what the prevalent West Euro mindset is (you teach boys and young men to be ashamed of being males, and of their ethnicity).


    German men are ashamed of being Germans, and are ashamed of being toxic white males. They would not be willing to die for Germany.


    Unless German men have such low self-esteem that they believe that their destiny is to become cannon fodder, they would not fight.


    Because they have nothing to fight for. Why should they fight for a country which disrespects them because they are males, and Germans?
    what you wrote here is just nonsense. ethnicity has less and less value as it should be, but noone is telling anyone to be ashamed. you just shouldn't place too much value on it. unlike in poland it seems.

    and didn't you write yourself how racist and antisemitic the average german still is? how does that fit together with what you wrote now: "German men are ashamed of beeing Germans"?

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    [QUOTE=vandalorum... BELI-MI-AI !

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    New documentary by Polish Television - "Our man in Warsaw" (about Donald Tusk's years-long friendship with Putin):

    https://www.moviesonline.ca/our-man-...n-friendships/


    https://tfcodisha.com/2022/04/10/our...liss-disaster/


    TVP about Donald Tusk - Vladimir Putin started a war, but someone allowed him to grow in strength for many years:

    https://newsfounded.com/polandeng/tv...wp-wiadomosci/

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    "No more Tusk" - https://www-tvp-info.translate.goog/...en&_x_tr_hl=pl

    Ever since Vladimir Putin launched a war against Ukraine, it is no longer possible to cry out in Europe: "never again war!" But we can still cry out in Poland: never again Donald Tusk.

    Marcin Tulicki's documentary, "Our man in Warsaw", revealed who is who in Polish politics in recent decades. Bitter is a lesson, a bitter documentary. One would like to believe that it will be watched by those who, at the beginning of March, completely disagreed with the fact that Angela Merkel had been pushing Russia for years. And her friend from Vistula - Donald Tusk. It is primarily them, faithful readers of the left-liberal media, who should find out what is the truth about the top-class European putinophiles. Much subtler, smarter and much more effective in their activities than Victor Orban.


    After all, they will not find out from Tomasz Lis, who today is probably bitterly chewing on every word of the interview that President Putin's faithful helper, Dmitry Medvedev, deigned to give him years ago. This is the truth: at a time when the influential liberal media, publicists and journalists tracked down and ridiculed the "Russophobia" of Law and Justice politicians, they made them useful Kremlin idiots. Although do liberal circles really have something to reproach themselves of today? They have already come out of the shock they felt when Russia invaded Ukraine in late February / early March this year. Then their meticulously constructed image of the world collapsed, which - following the example of French and German media centers - allowed them to ridicule and ignore the warnings about Russia.

    "Our man in Warsaw" solidly refreshes the memory of various cunning gaps. And their most faithful, iron electorate: with a historical memory worthy of a one-day flapper. It is also worth reading the article How Tusk cleaned up Poland for Putin after the Russophobes. 30 most powerful facts, recordings, and quotes . The facts presented there will only be denied by people of very, really very bad will.

    By the way - with some amusement, I discovered that the liberal media and readers with admirable eagerness rushed to read the famous book by Catherine Belton, or Putin's People. How the KGB got Russia back and turned against the West. " The reading is really worth attention, but if anyone in Poland was interested, for example, in the issues of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the countries of the so-called people's democracy, which were under Russian control after World War II, you will not be surprised.

    Belton analyzes, for example, how the KGB and the East German security service, the Stasi, influenced the process of "soft exit" from communism, how it tried to maintain its influence and save its enormous wealth. The role of Vladimir Putin and the people he later involved in, for example, the construction of Nord Stream 2, was not so small in this. Only that in Poland, for example, Joanna and Andrzej Gwiazda paid attention to such threads - and that is one of the reasons why today's liberals, who woke up in heavily soiled armor in February this year, called them "stunned". When, in the so-called "good, liberal society" for three decades of the Third Polish Republic, someone mentioned that the Soviet services had a great influence on the changes in Europe at the turn of the 1980s and 1990s, he was laughed at. Likewise, it was mocked.

    Someone will notice: this column was supposed to be about Donald Tusk. Yes, it is. The former prime minister of the Third Polish Republic is a symbol of both cynicism and naivety in politics, which led in the years of the "Polish-Russian reset" to the elimination of many fuses in our internal and external policy. Russia used this illusion of reset to put Western Europe to sleep and corrupt - Warsaw provided a great excuse for Western diplomacy: it showed that the eastern flank of Europe and NATO was completely safe. Tusk gave the impression that he was winning something during the talks with Putin, when he promised him, for example, very cautious actions by NATO on the eastern flank. But it really allowed the tsar-non-tsar of Russia to achieve new goals in other parts of the world and the continent.

    By the way: Russia is a country that attaches great importance to metapolitical stories. Because he understands well that they help convince the world to be right. The worse the real Russia is, the more beautiful stories it tries to sell to the world. And it is clearly visible that during the rule of the Civic Platform, Poland gave way to the Russian story that the Kremlin narrative, thanks to a pseudo-reset, seeped even from public media, it was legitimized by the most opinion-forming journalists, such as Tomasz Lis.

    The narrative of the liberal media at the time was subordinated to Russian needs and Russian stories, which was also clearly visible after the Smolensk catastrophe, after the actions with candles burned on the graves of Soviet soldiers, publicized by Gazeta Wyborcza, when the big names of Polish culture, including Andrzej Wajda, they posed for photos at the graves of the Red Army soldiers. One can only imagine how the Kremlin croaked at that time about this "reset", at those ****** gestures that Moscow must have rightly interpreted as disarming Polish historical memory, its softening and relativization to the level of infantile sentimentalism, from which nothing good came for Poland, Russia, on the other hand, benefited a lot from it.


    Let us not be under any illusions. The louder Russian propaganda screams about Polish Russophobia today, the more certain it is that we are doing the right thing. So humanly - let's be human to ordinary Russians, but let's no longer have any illusions that Russia, leaving less and less space for the truth, more and more willingly returning to Stalinist lies, has been fighting a hard ideological battle for decades also against Polish history and national identity.


    No more Tusk, Sikorski, their Moscow travels and business. Not for the sake of this or that party, but for the sake of Poland.

    =====

    I hope they will add English subtitles to their documentary:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBdy_4DVcGw

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    I am an incel that spends all day tr0lling a forum.

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    Quote Originally Posted by loatear View Post
    I am an incel that spends all day tr0lling a forum.
    https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/incel

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    2 members found this post helpful.
    The sinking of Moskva is the biggest Russian blunder by far to date in this war. To even allow that to happen in such a cheap way is almost beyond belief to anybody knowledgeable about these topics..

    I was running simulations long ago involving ships of this class against other ships and aircraft. This is an ageing ship, it was designed to sink carriers and it was obsolete before the Cold War was over, as the Soviets built a bigger nuclear cruiser with better Carrier killer missiles, though still most of anti carrier Soviet power was carried not by the surface fleet but by the submarines. Soviet navy was about the submarines and surface fleet were there to serve them, even the Soviet aircraft carriers were there to support the subs.

    Still though unmodernized it had plenty of power. Her role here was limited, with by now obsolete Bazalt missiles, and it had for its time good Anti air capabilities.

    In Syria Russians used it for Air Defence and it seems here too. This ship has significant anti missile capabilities and cannot be taken out just like that. With 6 CIWS, with long range and short range AA missiles, even its main gun is capable of shooting down the incoming missiles. Apparently Ukrainians say they used TB2 to distract the defenses. But they must have fired at least 8+ missiles to score 2 hits. Also some mentioned storm disrupting the CIWS action. Also one has to guide them over the horizon.. I guess more information will be there in a year or so.

    It wasn't capable of firing cruise missiles like some of those new frigates they have been using, so its role was mainly AA, but its a capital target, and a huge blunder waiting to happen.

    I noticed on another military forum list of new Russian navy ships built during the time of Putin compared to oligarch yachts.
    • 2 Frigates 22350 (2x $450 mil.)
    • 3 Frigates 11356 (3x $430 mil.)
    • 7 Corvettes 20380/85 (7x $250 mil.)
    • 2 LSD 11711 (2x $160 mil.)




    Some yachts, same years:


    • “Dilbar” Usmanov ($550 mil.)
    • “Eclipse” Abramovich ($460 mil.)
    • “Sailing Yacht A” Melnychenko ($425 mil.)
    • “Ocean Victory” Rashnikov ($310 mil.)
    • “Motor Yacht A” Melnychenko ($255 mil.)
    • “Luna” Akhmedov ($230 mil.)
    • “Quantum Blue” Galitsky ($225 mil.)
    • “Black Pearl” Burlakov ($220 mil.)
    • “Ona” Usmanov ($210 mil.)
    • “Palladium” Prokhorov ($155 mil.)
    • “Madame Gu” Skoch ($135 mil.)
    • “Pacific” Mikhelson ($130 mil.)
    • “Barbara” Potanin ($125 mil.)
    • “Here Comes The Sun” Dzhaparidze ($125 mil.)
    • “Tango” Vekselberg ($110 mil.)
    • “Areti” Makarov ($110 mil.)
    • “Kibo” Mamut ($105 mil.)
    • “Alfa Nero” Guryev ($105 mil.)
    • “Nirvana” Potanin ($100 mil.)
    • “Anastasia” Potanin ($80 mil.)

    (not a full list btw)
    So Russians mostly built smaller surface ships. What Chinese have though is most impressive.


    Some earlier comments about NATO provoking the Russia etc. That's just normal after the downfall of the USSR. US CJCS said not long ago "Russia is the only country capable of destroying the US" (due to nuclear arsenal). Many US thinkers are of opinion that no such country should exist.. China has much smaller arsenal though it has been increasing it.

    But to sum it up. Putin tried to eat an apple that is too large. Replace the Russian invasion force with the entire French Army which is the most capable army in Europe, and would they be able to take over Ukraine? No. Put the entire British and French armies, same. You would have to add the German Army.
    Ukraine had very good Air Defense capabilities with a huge number of S-300 and Buk systems.

    What Russians didn't do and what they could have done is use far more the artillery. North Korea without the nuclear weapons is capable of causing massive casualties in Seoul with their artillery within minutes, which is something that has kept the balance on that border. Russians thought they were "liberating their own people", so any such activity was obviously politically unacceptable to them.

    To score some win, Russians here have to take Odessa, and I don't see that happening atm. Far more likely is some Pyrrhic victory.. For Ukraine, they already did much better than anybody expected..

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