Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

real expert said:
I talk with Russians and not only about them. According to these Russians, I spoke with, Western people are being fed with anti-Russian propaganda. Hence many Westerners are anti-Russian, Russiaphobes who think that Russians are the eternal bad guys, the villains. In the real world, things are more complicated and we should refrain from quickly putting people in boxes such as Putin-versteher or anti-Russian haters. I'm against the war in Ukraine anyway.
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I didn't take the stance that we must not look trough the eyes of the Russians, so fare possible. And I'm not trying to put people in boxes.

I only see the result that too much Putin-Understanding has lead to a kind of 'misleading'. We have seen Putin in the face and imo this is ugly.

Verstehen soll kein Verzeihen sein!
 
bigsnake49 said:
Pretext. The words that he uttered couple of days ago as to Russia's historical right to Ukraine are what he believes. The rest are excuses that nobody buys.
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It's not excuses.
He doesn't care for execuses for what he's doing.
It's part of his desinformation campaign focusing on his own Russian civilians.

And the words he uttered about historical rights are the same words Hitler used to justify his annexations.
 
firetown said:
Why wouldn't Europe be ready for them?
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Europe may be ready.
The juridical framework isn't.
And that is because of international laws that have to many loopholes which have been abused on a large scale during decades.
Everything must be regulated by laws nowadays.
 
bigsnake49 said:
Again there is no 2% of GDP payments to NATO. It is recommended that each country spend at least 2% of their GDP on their own forces. trump has managed to confuse everybody on this point.
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Classic "Free Rider" problem. Those countries that do pay 2% are subsidizing those that don't. It becomes an Opportunity Cost given those countries that don't spend 2% then can spend more resources on other things like. Trump didn't confuse anybody, he just laid out the truth for who are the "Free Riders" and who are not.
 
Palermo Trapani said:
Classic "Free Rider" problem. Those countries that do pay 2% are subsidizing those that don't. It becomes an Opportunity Cost given those countries that don't spend 2% then can spend more resources on other things like. Trump didn't confuse anybody, he just laid out the truth for who are the "Free Riders" and who are not.
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Trump is still confused about this. Nobody owes money to NATO. There is no payment due that they miss. Their credit score does not get dinged. For the 10th time it is a recommendation. If Hungary only spends 1%, Greece does not have to pick up the slack.

BTW the only reason that Greece spends more than 2% is not because of NATO it's because they want to defend themselves against Turkey. The only reason the US is pending more than 2% is because the generals can't help themselves and go hog wild about huge expensive projects.
 
So is Russia really presenting themselves as the victim in this? it will be like the rapist presenting themselves as the victim. You see your honor she made me do it. She looked so sexy, I had to do it. If she were not so beautiful and sexy it would have never happened. I was the victim your honor.
 
bigsnake49 said:
Trump is still confused about this. Nobody owes money to NATO. There is no payment due that they miss. Their credit score does not get dinged. For the 10th time it is a recommendation. If Hungary only spends 1%, Greece does not have to pick up the slack.

BTW the only reason that Greece spends more than 2% is not because of NATO it's because they want to defend themselves against Turkey. The only reason the US is pending more than 2% is because the generals can't help themselves and go hog wild about huge expensive projects.
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Well I can understand Greece and Turkey. But from the USA perspective, The Europeans, many of them have Economies that allow them to spend more. Think of what countries that spend more than 2%, since others are spending less, can do with those cost savings from NATO expenditures, they can put those dollars into investments in roads, bridges, health care, education, private sector economy, etc. Boris Johnson, the British PM has finally publicly stated that European dependence on Russian Oil and Gas has brought Putin into Meddling with European Politics. Go look at his quote. He finally publicly acknowledged what Trump told NATO about Germany under Merkel about 2018.

Seize dependence on Russian oil and gas, Boris Johnson tells nations amid Ukraine attack (msn.com)

Here is a partial video of Trump's comment back in 2018. You tube has a video of the full quote.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/11/politics/trump-germany-russia-captive-nato/index.html

The Wall Street Journal on 30 January 2022 this year in an article entitled "Before Ukraine Standoff, US Pitched its "freedom Gas" to Europe and Found Few taker." The article is behind a paywall but it does document even Joe Biden as VP to Obama pushed for EU and NATO allies to buy more Oil and Gas from US. Obama and his Green activist and countries like France and Germany did not want to be seen as buying Natural Gas from USA companies because of "Fracking." That is in the article. Rather, they choose to buy more from Russia (btw, doesn't France still have lots of Nuclear power?) Trump of course pushed for NATO to buy more from the USA and as the article documents, which I already alluded to, Poland saw dependency on Russia for Oil and Gas as geopolitical risk contrary to both its economic interest and its National security interest. They now have as their major supplier of LNG companies from the USA. Trump as best I recall never blasted Poland like he did Merkel and Germany. Poland spends 2% of GDP on NATO, Germany does not, Germany is overly dependent on Russia for Oil and Gas, Poland is not. So when Trump blasted NATO about Germany, it was never about pulling the USA out of NATO. That is the US media that had Trump derangement syndrome spouting BS. He was just being Trump and who he was really ticked off was Merkel. Now what got people in EU upset was that Trump is no diplomat and he said things in public that US politicians in the past never said. Ok, that was Trump.

But when you consider what UK PM Boris Johnson said again about Europe's Dependency on Putin and Russia for its Oil and Gas is one reason Putin has been meddling in Europe's political affairs and this dependence is an economic and national security risk, Trump in substance, not form, was in fact correct. If Putin gets booted by the Russian people, and a Gorbachev type leader maybe emerges, then maybe the West can re-engage Russia (if Reagan could work with Gorbachev, then future leaders could work with a guy like him)
 
real expert said:

I agree, with you. Merkel has destroyed the once conservative CDU and "castrated" all the alpha male politicians, so to speak. Our mainstream media was only full of praise and behaved like a court reporter of her. Merkel is from East Germany, and from recalling reading she has a "Stasi Past". However, our current Chancellor, another leftist, isn't better. Germany like the USA and other Western countries has shifted strongly to left. The USA is the role model and where the USA usually goes Europe follows. Here's the thing, there are people who love the USA but don't like the politics there. For example, many people were highly critical of the wars under Bush or Obama. However, they weren't anti-American as such but just didn't like the geopolitics. And then there are the real anti-American folks out there. What I find rather puzzling is that many young Americans, especially the college-educated ones, express a lot of contempt for the USA, such as burning the US-American flag and whatnot. In my personal opinion, China is much more dangerous than Russia. Communist China poses a much bigger threat than Russia to the USA. When it comes to Ukraine, the situation is different.
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Real Expert: Thanks for your comment, yes I recognize what you are saying, what I perceived as ant-Americanism is often times more anti American geopolitics and foreign policy that involved regime change. This has been part of the Foreign policy with Bill Clinton (he endorsed those policies, but did not every implement them), Bush 2, and Obama. Hillary Clinton was perhaps the most hawkish of them all and was with Obama-Biden, also behind the takeout of Qaddafi and the attempt to takeout Assad.

Interestingly, the USA had no new regime change wars under Trump. Trump did up the tougher policies towards China, while of course at the same time praising how tough and strong a leader Chairman Xi is. That is how he operates, but nobody has been tougher on China regarding unfair Trade, their currency manipulation, and he had the onions to call out China for possibly causing the COVID-19 pandemic do to a bio-weapons lab leak early on. Does anyone still think this was from a bat? He praised Kim as a tough leader, but at the same time he told him if he acts like Rocket Man, it will not end good for Kim in North Korea.

And yes, I agree, Communist China is the greater geo-political threat for the world. They are 2nd largest economy in the world, have massive military and their ability to influence supply chains around the world is a problem.
 
Palermo Trapani said:
Real Expert: Thanks for your comment, yes I recognize what you are saying, what I perceived as ant-Americanism is often times more anti American geopolitics and foreign policy that involved regime change. This has been part of the Foreign policy with Bill Clinton (he endorsed those policies, but did not every implement them), Bush 2, and Obama. Hillary Clinton was perhaps the most hawkish of them all and was with Obama-Biden, also behind the takeout of Qaddafi and the attempt to takeout Assad.

Interestingly, the USA had no new regime change wars under Trump. Trump did up the tougher policies towards China, while of course at the same time praising how tough and strong a leader Chairman Xi is. That is how he operates, but nobody has been tougher on China regarding unfair Trade, their currency manipulation, and he had the onions to call out China for possibly causing the COVID-19 pandemic do to a bio-weapons lab leak early on. Does anyone still think this was from a bat? He praised Kim as a tough leader, but at the same time he told him if he acts like Rocket Man, it will not end good for Kim in North Korea.

And yes, I agree, Communist China is the greater geo-political threat for the world. They are 2nd largest economy in the world, have massive military and their ability to influence supply chains around the world is a problem.
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And that's the same thing he is doing with Putin now. He is applauding 'genius' Putin about his 'trick' of the 'peace mission' One bottom line of Trump is that he attracted to the authoritarian style and attitude. Were are the Reps of Reagan: [FONT=var(--ytd-video-primary-info-renderer-title-font-family]Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall! Now they try to make the current president a lame duck in a very tricky situation, when the NATO is at stake (next target Baltics?) the US is factual in war. So plain anti- patriotic behavior of Trump c.s..

The difference between China and Russia is that Xi, in Chinese line, is very willing, but cautious, not reckless, Putin is reckless now. And Putin has put much, much more effort to destabilize the West and specific USA.

The troops are standing on the door of Kiev now, when the Ukranians go in resistance/ guerrilla we will see a bloody ware Putin has shown in Grozny and Syria not to resist to anything.....[/FONT]
 
Palermo Trapani said:
WIf Putin gets booted by the Russian people, and a Gorbachev type leader maybe emerges, then maybe the West can re-engage Russia (if Reagan could work with Gorbachev, then future leaders could work with a guy like him)
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Do you know the word knout?
 
Donald Tusk on Twitter:

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firetown said:
What did Italy do? Sorry, I may have missed something significant.
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Underestimate Putin.
Doing bussines with him and thinking they can trust him.
Even last night they veto-ed the proposal in the European parliament to throw Russia out of SWIFT, so they can go on importing and paying the gass Putin supplies to them.
Germany joined Italy in this.

The other, lighter sanctions were approved.
 
bicicleur 2 said:
Europe may be ready.
The juridical framework isn't.
And that is because of international laws that have to many loopholes which have been abused on a large scale during decades.
Everything must be regulated by laws nowadays.
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Why must everything be regulated by laws without those ignoring them being held at the same standard.
That sounds like foolish ideology to me.
 
I'm watching the news on BBC: the Russian government is "ready" to start "talks" with the Ukrainians in Minsk. I imagine the proposals: the Donbass and some other Russian-speaking territory (and obviously Crimea) would definitely become part of Russia...and the rest of the Ukrainian territory would be ruled by a "Vichy regime"...
 
italouruguayan said:
I'm watching the news on BBC: the Russian government is "ready" to start "talks" with the Ukrainians in Minsk. I imagine the proposals: the Donbass and some other Russian-speaking territory (and obviously Crimea) would definitely become part of Russia...and the rest of the Ukrainian territory would be ruled by a "Vichy regime"...
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This is giving me flashbacks from the 1982 Falkland Islands "conflict".
 
...and apparently the architect of the talks would be China. Are we seeing the definitive decline of the West?...
 
firetown said:
This is giving me flashbacks from the 1982 Falkland Islands "conflict".
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..mmm I do not think so. You can not compare a war decided by a dictatorship in decline of an underdeveloped country, which to distract the attention of its own people decides to fulfill an old nationalist longing, but pulling the tail of a lion that was not believed to react, with a nuclear-armed imperial power deciding to retake control of something it considers its own...
 
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