Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

[euandro]

Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

[firetown]

It sure looks like it...

[bicicleur 2]

I think so.
Putin knows there will be sanctions, but no western interventions.

[Angela]

I'm waiting for Biden to announce that we'll now have " peace in our time".

Nobody ever learns anything.

Will Poland be the breaking point once again, or will the west let it go this time?

[bicicleur 2]

next event will be bankruptcy of Turkey and exit Erdogan

[bigsnake49]

next event will be bankruptcy of Turkey and exit Erdogan

What makes you say that?

[bigsnake49]

I'm waiting for Biden to announce that we'll now have " peace in our time".

Nobody ever learns anything.

Will Poland be the breaking point once again, or will the west let it go this time?

We are selling Poland 250 Abrams tanks.

[bicicleur 2]

What makes you say that?

Erdogan sacked the president of the Turkish national bank.
48 % inflation.
Turkish bonds downgraded by Fitch to B.

[bicicleur 2]

We are selling Poland 250 Abrams tanks.

Unlike Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states are Nato members.

[Duarte]

It's been a month since Ukraine could be invaded at any moment by the Russians. I can only hope that the ​British intelligence agencies and CIA informants are not the same ones who said Iraq had an arsenal of chemical weapons that needed to be destroyed. Indeed, an American spokesman said the Russians could use chemical weapons to simulate a Ukrainian attack on civilians in the rebel east to justify the 'imminent' invasion. Saddam Hussein's alleged use of chemical weapons against the Kurds justified the invasion of Iraq. Good. Today we all know that these chemical weapons did not exist. Al Qaeda, Taliban, Islamic State, etc. are the direct heirs of the chaos created by the West and its bombs in much of the Middle East and uncontrolled immigration to Europe is a consequence of this chaos. The difference is that Putin is not Saddam and Russia is not Iraq. Unfortunately, Ukraine's innocent civilians are in the midst of yet another imbroglio created by the West represented by NATO and Russia represented by Vladimir Putin. There are only cynics on both sides. Good versus evil. No. It's evil versus evil.

[Duarte]

It's been a month since Ukraine could be invaded at any moment by the Russians. I can only hope that the ​British intelligence agencies and CIA informants are not the same ones who said Iraq had an arsenal of chemical weapons that needed to be destroyed. Indeed, an American spokesman said the Russians could use chemical weapons to simulate a Ukrainian attack on civilians in the rebel east to justify the 'imminent' invasion. Saddam Hussein's alleged use of chemical weapons against the Kurds justified the invasion of Iraq. Good. Today we all know that these chemical weapons did not exist. Al Qaeda, Taliban, Islamic State, etc. are the direct heirs of the chaos created by the West and its bombs in much of the Middle East and uncontrolled immigration to Europe is a consequence of this chaos. The difference is that Putin is not Saddam and Russia is not Iraq. Unfortunately, Ukraine's innocent civilians are in the midst of yet another imbroglio created by the West represented by NATO and Russia represented by Vladimir Putin. There are only cynics on both sides. Good versus evil. No. It's evil versus evil.

[bigsnake49]

Unlike Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states are Nato members.

I am extremely aware of that.

[bigsnake49]

Erdogan sacked the president of the Turkish national bank.
48 % inflation.
Turkish bonds downgraded by Fitch to B.

Erdogan has been sacking everybody for a long time. Now runaway inflation and the downgrading of bonds might be danger signals but I don't think that Turkey is in danger of collapse. The government debt to GDP ratio is at 39% but the private debt problem is another.

[bicicleur 2]

It's been a month since Ukraine could be invaded at any moment by the Russians. I can only hope that the ​British intelligence agencies and CIA informants are not the same ones who said Iraq had an arsenal of chemical weapons that needed to be destroyed. Indeed, an American spokesman said the Russians could use chemical weapons to simulate a Ukrainian attack on civilians in the rebel east to justify the 'imminent' invasion. Saddam Hussein's alleged use of chemical weapons against the Kurds justified the invasion of Iraq. Good. Today we all know that these chemical weapons did not exist. Al Qaeda, Taliban, Islamic State, etc. are the direct heirs of the chaos created by the West and its bombs in much of the Middle East and uncontrolled immigration to Europe is a consequence of this chaos. The difference is that Putin is not Saddam and Russia is not Iraq. Unfortunately, Ukraine's innocent civilians are in the midst of yet another imbroglio created by the West represented by NATO and Russia represented by Vladimir Putin. There are only cynics on both sides. Good versus evil. No. It's evil versus evil.

I don't see any similarity between the invasion of Iraq and the situation in Ukraine.
Iraq was invaded when it was not oportune, because it was not possible to bring stability in that region and indeed Bush Jr was stupid enough to look for an excuse to intervene.
The same goes for Obama and Europe being so naïve to support the Arab spring.
Now there is a decision not to support Ukraine which is not ruled by a dictator and where Russia will put the lights out.
Yes, in both situations, politicians are cynical, but in a different way.
I think in politics only cynical people survive.

[bicicleur 2]

Erdogan has been sacking everybody for a long time. Now runaway inflation and the downgrading of bonds might be danger signals but I don't think that Turkey is in danger of collapse. The government debt to GDP ratio is at 39% but the private debt problem is another.

39 % is not much, I was not aware of that

on the other hand, I know of some Turkish companies with lots of financial resources and with a good product that went bust in the 1990's because of runaway inflation at that time
history seems to repaet itself over and over in Turkey

[bigsnake49]

39 % is not much, I was not aware of that

on the other hand, I know of some Turkish companies with lots of financial resources and with a good product that went bust in the 1990's because of runaway inflation at that time
history seems to repaet itself over and over in Turkey

The debt crisis in Turkey is similar to the debt crisis in Spain in which public debt was reasonable but private and company debt was unsustainable. Plus severe inflation. Turkish and foreign banks lent rather generously to Turkish companies.

[Duarte]

I don't see any similarity between the invasion of Iraq and the situation in Ukraine.
Iraq was invaded when it was not oportune, because it was not possible to bring stability in that region and indeed Bush Jr was stupid enough to look for an excuse to intervene.
The same goes for Obama and Europe being so naïve to support the Arab spring.
Now there is a decision not to support Ukraine which is not ruled by a dictator and where Russia will put the lights out.
Yes, in both situations, politicians are cynical, but in a different way.
I think in politics only cynical people survive.

This is my grain of cynicism in this thread: Saving endangered democracies and debunking ruthless dictators and autocrats is one of the West's missions and no matter what the local human cost involved or if there will be anything left to rebuild. As think the military: Are acceptable losses in the name of a greater cause.

PS: What I wrote above is just a rant. As a lady from eastern Ukraine said to a Brazilian TV journalist who is there in Ukraine doing field reports: “Why do they want to invade us? We have nothing.” The lady in question lives in a wooden house, heated by firewood and without any of the comforts that modern life can offer. Can cynical politicians think of these simple people who will be the victims of their actions? I think not.

[bigsnake49]

This is my grain of cynicism in this thread: Saving endangered democracies and debunking ruthless dictators and autocrats is one of the West's missions and no matter what the local human cost involved or if there will be anything left to rebuild. As think the military: Are acceptable losses in the name of a greater cause.

PS: What I wrote above is just a rant. As a lady from eastern Ukraine said to a Brazilian TV journalist who is there in Ukraine doing field reports: “Why do they want to invade us? We have nothing.” The lady in question lives in a wooden house, heated by firewood and without any of the comforts that modern life can offer. Can cynical politicians think of these simple people who will be the victims of their actions? I think not.

The Russians just like the Americans have not learned their lessons. You invade a country like Afghanistan or Iraq or Ukraine and you now are responsible for feeding them and making sure that the bloated state bureaucracy is getting paid, the teachers are paid the roads are built and patched up, the trains run on time, gasoline is available. It's not easy being a conqueror it is expensive.

As far as the common people of Ukraine are concerned they are the ones that will suffer.

[Palermo Trapani]

The Russian and Ukraine situation boils down to economics and Oil and Gas. Russia gets 40% of its Revenues from the Oil and Gas Industry. China, which imports 55%-60% of its oil supply starting in 2016 got most its Oil from Russia, more than the Saudi's. Russian Oil around 2016 started to become more important for Europe, the Netherlands and Germany today are Russia's 2nd and 3rd biggest export markets. Europe as a whole gets about 1/3 of its Oil from Russia. The NORD2 pipeline which began in 2018 is now almost complete is going to further link Russian Oil and Gas and Western Europe. So until the NORD2 pipeline is fully operational, Ukraine is in terms of Russia's land base supply chain, and important geographic region for it to supply its Oil on and ever more dependent Western Europe on said Russian Oil.

For all the push back on Trump, the USA was a net exporter of Oil and Gas for the first time generations and Trump wanted Europe to buy its Oil and gas from us and he in fact threatened sanctions on any country working with Russia with the NORD2, which for a while stopped construction. Biden, in a nod to major European G5 allies, changed Trump's policy and gave full go ahead. Republicans in the US Senate last year tried to override Biden's change in Trump's policy to no avail. Putin to me is using Ukraine for leverage. He gets his NORD pipeline to pump oil and gas into Europe, you Western Europeans become more dependent on tat NORD2 pipeline and Russian Oil and Gas and Putin's land based supply chain routes through Ukraine are no longer as important. US Economist have predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Oil hits > $100 a barrel and inflation is > 10%. This is Jimmy Carter era 2.0 with the Iranian crisis in 1979 sending Oil prices through the roof and inflation here in the USA having 2 consecutive years of double digit rates (79-80).

Ukraine will suffer regardless, once the NORD2 is fully operational, those jobs in the Oil and Gas supply chain in Ukraine will go away and the NORD2 will be the major supply of Russian Oil to Europe. So Russians on the starting end and Germans on the receiving end will benefit, jobs for workers and Russia will be able to increase its supply of Oil and Gas to Western Europe and they in turn will be more dependent on Russia.

[bicicleur 2]

The Russian and Ukraine situation boils down to economics and Oil and Gas. Russia gets 40% of its Revenues from the Oil and Gas Industry. China, which imports 55%-60% of its oil supply starting in 2016 got most its Oil from Russia, more than the Saudi's. Russian Oil around 2016 started to become more important for Europe, the Netherlands and Germany today are Russia's 2nd and 3rd biggest export markets. Europe as a whole gets about 1/3 of its Oil from Russia. The NORD2 pipeline which began in 2018 is now almost complete is going to further link Russian Oil and Gas and Western Europe. So until the NORD2 pipeline is fully operational, Ukraine is in terms of Russia's land base supply chain, and important geographic region for it to supply its Oil on and ever more dependent Western Europe on said Russian Oil.

For all the push back on Trump, the USA was a net exporter of Oil and Gas for the first time generations and Trump wanted Europe to buy its Oil and gas from us and he in fact threatened sanctions on any country working with Russia with the NORD2, which for a while stopped construction. Biden, in a nod to major European G5 allies, changed Trump's policy and gave full go ahead. Republicans in the US Senate last year tried to override Biden's change in Trump's policy to no avail. Putin to me is using Ukraine for leverage. He gets his NORD pipeline to pump oil and gas into Europe, you Western Europeans become more dependent on tat NORD2 pipeline and Russian Oil and Gas and Putin's land based supply chain routes through Ukraine are no longer as important. US Economist have predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Oil hits > $100 a barrel and inflation is > 10%. This is Jimmy Carter era 2.0 with the Iranian crisis in 1979 sending Oil prices through the roof and inflation here in the USA having 2 consecutive years of double digit rates (79-80).

Ukraine will suffer regardless, once the NORD2 is fully operational, those jobs in the Oil and Gas supply chain in Ukraine will go away and the NORD2 will be the major supply of Russian Oil to Europe. So Russians on the starting end and Germans on the receiving end will benefit, jobs for workers and Russia will be able to increase its supply of Oil and Gas to Western Europe and they in turn will be more dependent on Russia.

how does an invasion in Ukraine fit in the NORD2 project ?

[Palermo Trapani]

It doesn't, it is a threat to ensure the NORD2 is not impacted by the USA. Trump put sanctions on companies that worked on it and threatened sanctions against certain countries who allowed their companies to work on it. Trump was using major sanctions to stop it. Biden comes in and Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, etc, maybe even UK all asked for him to drop the sanctions and allow the project to be complete. Republicans in the Senate tried to keep the sanctions on but the Dems did not want go go against Biden and Biden dropped the sanctions (for now). My theory is that Putin will back off invading Ukraine once the NORD2 is pumping millions of barrels of Natural Gas a day into German facilities in the Baltic Sea and that Natural Gas gets distributed to the rest of Western Europe. According to data I read, as I noted above, about 1/3 of European Crude Oil and > 40% of its Natural Gas is supplied from Russia. About 40% of Russian Federal Government revenues comes from Oil and Gas. And invasion does not fit the NORD2 if the NORD2 gets fully up and running.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50875935

[Mmiikkii]

I hope they don't go to war in the Urheimat.
The last thing we need is Europe going to war with itself.

Now we don't live in a world where only Europe exists, we have to be in a globalized world, and we need the least enemies possible.

[bigsnake49]

The Russian and Ukraine situation boils down to economics and Oil and Gas. Russia gets 40% of its Revenues from the Oil and Gas Industry. China, which imports 55%-60% of its oil supply starting in 2016 got most its Oil from Russia, more than the Saudi's. Russian Oil around 2016 started to become more important for Europe, the Netherlands and Germany today are Russia's 2nd and 3rd biggest export markets. Europe as a whole gets about 1/3 of its Oil from Russia. The NORD2 pipeline which began in 2018 is now almost complete is going to further link Russian Oil and Gas and Western Europe. So until the NORD2 pipeline is fully operational, Ukraine is in terms of Russia's land base supply chain, and important geographic region for it to supply its Oil on and ever more dependent Western Europe on said Russian Oil.

For all the push back on Trump, the USA was a net exporter of Oil and Gas for the first time generations and Trump wanted Europe to buy its Oil and gas from us and he in fact threatened sanctions on any country working with Russia with the NORD2, which for a while stopped construction. Biden, in a nod to major European G5 allies, changed Trump's policy and gave full go ahead. Republicans in the US Senate last year tried to override Biden's change in Trump's policy to no avail. Putin to me is using Ukraine for leverage. He gets his NORD pipeline to pump oil and gas into Europe, you Western Europeans become more dependent on tat NORD2 pipeline and Russian Oil and Gas and Putin's land based supply chain routes through Ukraine are no longer as important. US Economist have predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Oil hits > $100 a barrel and inflation is > 10%. This is Jimmy Carter era 2.0 with the Iranian crisis in 1979 sending Oil prices through the roof and inflation here in the USA having 2 consecutive years of double digit rates (79-80).

Ukraine will suffer regardless, once the NORD2 is fully operational, those jobs in the Oil and Gas supply chain in Ukraine will go away and the NORD2 will be the major supply of Russian Oil to Europe. So Russians on the starting end and Germans on the receiving end will benefit, jobs for workers and Russia will be able to increase its supply of Oil and Gas to Western Europe and they in turn will be more dependent on Russia.

The Azerbaijani pipeline through Turkey, Greece and Albania is already operational. Longer term, both Turkey's Black Sea gas finds and the Israeli/Lebanon/Cyprus gas fields should be connected to the already existing networks. LNG terminals on both sides of The Atlantic are pumping gas. Ukraine will be a millstone around Russia's neck.

[Palermo Trapani]

The Azerbaijani pipeline through Turkey, Greece and Albania is already operational. Longer term, both Turkey's Black Sea gas finds and the Israeli/Lebanon/Cyprus gas fields should be connected to the already existing networks. LNG terminals on both sides of The Atlantic are pumping gas. Ukraine will be a millstone around Russia's neck.

Ok, does that one link up with Russia as the original point of distribution as well. Based on this supply chain map, only the yellow one is not controlled by Russia (is that the one you are referring to). But it to is integrated with the Russian supply chain. So based on this map, even with NORD2, there is no way Russia is going to let NATO get access to Ukraine. Look at the amount of Russian infrastructure there.

https://i1.wp.com/energyanalyst.co.u...size=696%2C645

[bigsnake49]

Ok, does that one link up with Russia as the original point of distribution as well. Based on this supply chain map, only the yellow one is not controlled by Russia (is that the one you are referring to). But it to is integrated with the Russian supply chain. So based on this map, even with NORD2, there is no way Russia is going to let NATO get access to Ukraine. Look at the amount of Russian infrastructure there.

https://i1.wp.com/energyanalyst.co.u...size=696%2C645

The one that I am talking about originates in Azerbaijan, crosses Georgia, Turkey, Greece, Albania and then ends up in Italy where it links up with the rest of the European pipeline system. It has three main sections, the Southern Caucasus section (SCP), the TransAnatolian (TANAP) and the TransAdriatic (TAP). Overall all it is known as the Southern Gas Corridor. Now there was a TurkStream Pipeline that crossed the Black Sea from Russia and ended in Eastern Thrace and from then hooked up with Turkish, Greek and Bulgarian pipeline pipeline systems. BTW, the link does not work.