Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

So you think his demand for a neutral Ukraine and the clearly pro-Russian territories in Ukraine is the same as Warshaw Pact size control of the Soviet Union? Not even remotely. He just reacted to very concrete and close threats to his vital Russian interests.

The West was not sleeping, but the USA alienated Russia time and time again, without offering them anything. To blame everything on the Russians now is so cheap.

The Putin regime was already for a long time developing into an autocratic regime, no single opposition allowed, see Navalny. Why the hell should we care about the interest of a dictator?

Liberation, denazification? They bomb the Ukranian people in their houses. I saw just a message that a man of 96 survived 4 concentration camps until a Russian bomb killed him. How symbolic....
 
The Americans should have sought closer relationships with Russia, instead of pushing it into Chinas arms. This is one of the most stupid decisions by those old American politicians, those Cold War relics, they did in the last decades, to seek revenge and humiliation of Russia.
Because of chinese support, Russia does not stop. Now China has a good chance to overthrow west. It seems to me that EU is going to stagflation along with refuge crisis.

I think china is taking use of Russia with a same strategy to north korea.
CCP is always saying to the world that north korea should not have nuclear weapons. However, north korea keeps making nuclear weapon with Chinese economic supports to endanger the US, Japan and south korea.
There is nothing without payment. China are getting affluent natural resources in north korea chiefly due to heavy sanction to north korea. Moreover china exploits north Koreans with cheap payments.

Same thing happens now between Russia and china. If Moscow is infested with Chinese companies, Europe might be confronted with a beast worse than Russia.
 
Those who know me here will have noticed I'm not a proud Belgian.
If Belgium were invaded, the majority of the Belgians - including myself - wouldn't find it worth fighting for.
Belgium is a prosperous country where it is good to live.
But that is despite it's leaders.

why is Belgium not worth it? what would have to be done in your dream country so that it is worth fighting for?
 
why is Belgium not worth it? what would have to be done in your dream country so that it is worth fighting for?

because it is a lost cause
first of all Belgium has no military spine
second there is no unity, Belgium is not a nation, it is something surreal
 
Russians accidentally reported their casualties, and then quickly removed it, but the the Wayback Machine is priceless:

По данным Минобороны РФ, в ходе спецоперации на Украине ВС РФ потеряли убитыми 9861 человека, ранения получили 16153 человека.

Source: https://web.archive.org/web/20220321121337/https://www.kp.ru/online/news/4672522/

9861 killed in action and 16153 heavily wounded (I'm quite sure lightly wounded are not included, usually KIA:WIA proportion is 1:2 or 1:3).

Current version no longer has this information:

https://www.kp.ru/online/news/4672522/
 
In the Pacific Theater of WW2 American ground forces had:

U.S. Army land forces - 2.54 wounded for every 1 killed

U.S. Marines land forces - 3.44 wounded for every 1 killed

And that big difference was ONLY because of different definitions of what is a "wounded" in the Marines vs. the Army.

The Marines counted very light injuries as well, while the Army did not count such.

=====

In this case I think Russians reported only heavily injured (hospitalized) men. Normally there should be at least 2 wounded per 1 killed.
 
Add to this the missing in action and captured by the enemy. And the sick (including Covid-19).
 
The BBC claims that these figures were removed "within minutes" but this is false. They were there for over 6 hours:

http://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www.kp.ru/online/news/4672522/

lv88G4i.png
 
Why the hell should we care about the interest of a dictator?

Its not about Putin, its about the Russian people. One of the major obstacles for peace is definitely the Donbas, and the Russians there want to be with Russia. That's with or without Putin. They don't want to be, majority wise, part of an Americanised Ukraine which being positioned like an anti-Russian bastion.
The Russians should let the rest of Ukraine go their way and Ukraine should let the Donbas Russians and Crimeans go. If they would have done so, there wouldn't have been a war anyway...
 
Its not about Putin, its about the Russian people. One of the major obstacles for peace is definitely the Donbas, and the Russians there want to be with Russia. That's with or without Putin. They don't want to be, majority wise, part of an Americanised Ukraine which being positioned like an anti-Russian bastion.
The Russians should let the rest of Ukraine go their way and Ukraine should let the Donbas Russians and Crimeans go. If they would have done so, there wouldn't have been a war anyway...

The Russians stole Crimea from the Tatars.
 
Also the massive Russian presence in the Donbas dates from the late 19th century with the industrialisation which began in the late Tsarist period.
 
The Russians stole Crimea from the Tatars.

You mean the Tatars which did invade and plunder Eastern Europe on behalf of the Ottomans before? The Russians fought more than one war to keep Crimea, they settled it, they built it up, they have their main naval base there and the locals want to belong to Russia.

Also the massive Russian presence in the Donbas dates from the late 19th century with the industrialisation which began in the late Tsarist period.

If you want to go back before the 19th century, than I have to expect a lot to come back to German lands...

Besides, the difference between Russians and Ukrainians on an ethnic base is rather minor anyway. Its because of religious-ideological reasons that they split recently in a more radical way. Which also means, that the main determinant should be what the people in a region want. I wrote before, many times, if the Ukrainians would have suggested a plebiscit, I would have been all for it. But obviously, the Ukrainians never made such a suggestion and don't care what he people in the region want. The Ukrainian nationalists want their state to be as big as possible, again no difference to the Russian side at all. No moral higher or lower ground, so to say.
 
This seems appropriate:

http://people.uncw.edu/kozloffm/glubb.pdf


”The weakness of pacifism is that there are still many peoples in the world who are aggressive. Nations who proclaim themselves unwilling to fight are liable to be conquered by peoples in the stage of militarism— perhaps even to see themselves incorporated into some new empire, with the status of mere provinces or colonies.

When to be prepared to use force and when to give way is a perpetual human problem, which can only be solved, as best we can, in each successive situation as it arises. In fact, however, history seems to indicate that great nations do not normally disarm from motives of conscience, but owing to the weakening of a sense of duty in the citizens, and the increase in selfishness and the desire for wealth and ease.”
 
You mean the Tatars which did invade and plunder Eastern Europe on behalf of the Ottomans before?

Crimean Coastal Tatars are mostly descended from ancient Bosphoran Greeks.

These Coastal Tatars are very similar genetically to Mariupol Greeks (who descend from KER1-like Bosphoran Greeks).

Mariupol Greeks were expelled by Joseph Stalin from Crimea to Mariupol.

There are also Crimean Steppe Tatars - and these are more Asiatic genetically, they have high Nogai admixture probably.
 
You mean the Tatars which did invade and plunder Eastern Europe on behalf of the Ottomans before? The Russians fought more than one war to keep Crimea, they settled it, they built it up, they have their main naval base there and the locals want to belong to Russia.

Russia signed an agreement with Ukraine to move out from Sevastopol. They even started building a new major base on the eastern shore of the Black Sea. However, this didn’t go too well, which may be one of the reasons why they decided to resort to aggression and occupy Crimea.

As to the locals, Crimean Tatars have no warm feelings towards Moscow. They have been repressed by Russians for decades and forcibly relocated to Kazahstan by the Soviets. Many Ukrainians were forced to leave Crimea when the occupation started.

The Soviet army pensioners who all wanted to move to Crimea on retirement do probably support Russia. However, the youngest retired 30 years ago.
 
Russia signed an agreement with Ukraine to move out from Sevastopol. They even started building a new major base on the eastern shore of the Black Sea. However, this didn’t go too well, which may be one of the reasons why they decided to resort to aggression and occupy Crimea.

As to the locals, Crimean Tatars have no warm feelings towards Moscow. They have been repressed by Russians for decades and forcibly relocated to Kazahstan by the Soviets. Many Ukrainians were forced to leave Crimea when the occupation started.

The Soviet army pensioners who all wanted to move to Crimea on retirement do probably support Russia. However, the youngest retired 30 years ago.

There are different opinions on the issue, and if its so clear, as you say, but others say something completely different, why didn't the Ukrainians propose a plebiscit and planned to take Donbas and Crimea back by force? There was no suggestion for a peaceful solution from the Ukrainians at all. It seems the anti-Russian stance is a minority position in Crimea:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzO7gIT5GYU

The Ukrainian representatives talk is quite telling in the video.
 
There are different opinions on the issue, and if its so clear, as you say, but others say something completely different, why didn't the Ukrainians propose a plebiscit and planned to take Donbas and Crimea back by force?

.

Well, Russia did arrange for the representatives council to vote for joining Russia. Before that, they installed armed guards throughout the building and isolated the council. I would guess there was only one “right decision” possible.

There was also a plebiscite that only Russia recognises. Likewise, everyone knew how to vote. A bit like Austria 1937. Nowadays in Russia, expressing the “wrong” opinion is a criminal offence.

In Donbas, the rebels “found” weapons and heavy artillery and scores of “volunteers” moved in from Russia. I’m sure Ukraine would have found a way to deal with the discontent of Russians in a peaceful manner, but Russia doesn’t want that. They like the “grey zone” - Donbas, Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, decades-long complaining about how Russians in neighbouring countries weren’t respected enough, secretive support of extremist movements and parties all over the world, “troll farms” to push conflict etc etc. Divide et impera.

Now they are bombing Russian-majority cities to ashes because they don’t really care about the people.
 
Ethnic structure of Crimea 1725 - 2001:

D05I1DF.png


^^^
Most of the "Others" before 1850 were Crimean Greeks AFAIK (now they are called Mariupol Greeks):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol_Greek

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatars

^^^
Ethnic history of Crimea until the emergence of Crimean Tatars (video + timeline):

Timeline:

The oldest known inhabitants were Taurians (Tauri) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tauri

1000 BC - Tauri and Cimmerians inhabit Crimea
600 BC - Tauri and Scythians inhabit Crimea
500 BC - Tauri, Greek settlers and Scythians
480 BC - Tauri, Bosporan Greeks and Scythians
200 BC - Bosporan Greeks, Tauri, Scythians and Sarmatians
109 BC - Bosporan Greeks (vassals of Pontic Greeks), Scythians, Sarmatians
63 BC - Bosporan Greeks (vassals of Rome), Scythians and Sarmatians
250 AD - Bosporan Greeks, Scythians and Sarmatians
300 AD - Bosporan Greeks and Ostrogoths
375 AD - Hunnic Empire conquers Crimea
453 AD - Goths regain independence, Byzantines liberate Bosporan Greeks
650 AD - Bulgars subjugate Crimean Goths
750 AD - Khazar Empire conquers most of Crimea
965 AD - East Slavs form the Principality of Timutarakan in eastern Crimea
988 AD - Principality of Timutarakan captures Chersonesus, but gives it back
1000 AD - Pechenegs conquer northern parts of Crimea
1036 AD - Pechenegs defeated by Kievan Rus, north Crimea captured by Cumans
1083 AD - Byzantine Crimeans conquer the Slavic Principality of Timutarakan
1200 AD - north Crimea (Steppes) ruled by Cumans, southern by the Byzantines
1204 AD - Byzantine Crimean territories are now ruled by the Empire of Trebizond
1238 AD - Mongol Golden Horde invades northern Crimea and defeats the Cumans
1266 AD - Genoese Italians buy the city of Caffa (Feodosia) from the Mongol Khan
1313 AD - Golden Horde's Khan converts to Islam - Islam spreads into Crimea
1330 AD - Principality of Theodoro gains independence from the Empire of Trebizond
1400 AD - Crimea invaded by Tamerlan (Timurids), Genoa captures Greek cities
1449 AD - Independent Crimean Khanate emerges in former Golden Horde areas
1475 AD - Turkey invades southern Crimea, conquering Theodoro and Genoese lands

Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0-fLgWoxIY

 

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