Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?
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vandalorum
Banned
Austrian diplomatic circles say the talks being pretty harsh in Brussels. Obviously Biden came personally to exert maximal pressure on the Europeans for the extension of his economic war against Russia and potentially even an expansion of the actual warfare in general. The main groups being Biden, Poland and the Baltic states vs. the rest of Europe. Poland is extremely short-sighted, because its very own energy safety can't guaranteed by the Americans, they just don't care because of their anti-Russian position.
I just hope that the Europeans don't get pushed into the American war course with Russia. Its clear by now that France and Germany, plus a majority of Europeans, don't want that. Its an American war.
There is the imminent threat of a false flag operation orchestrated by the US or Ukrainian services, like a chemical attack, to instigate a war escalation and push the "allies and partners" to accept the American aggression:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8lY9B5FNcg
The American media being completely skewed and biased:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QglxaBzjUj4
The manipulation of the public is just disgusting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENAxvQwhNiM
I just hope that the Europeans don't get pushed into the American war course with Russia. Its clear by now that France and Germany, plus a majority of Europeans, don't want that. Its an American war.
There is the imminent threat of a false flag operation orchestrated by the US or Ukrainian services, like a chemical attack, to instigate a war escalation and push the "allies and partners" to accept the American aggression:
The American media being completely skewed and biased:
The manipulation of the public is just disgusting:
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Vallicanus
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Give it a rest.
Stick to genetic matters where you have something worthwhile to say to us.
Your Putin lapdog act is wearing thin.
Give it a rest.
Stick to genetic matters where you have something worthwhile to say to us.
Your Putin lapdog act is wearing thin.
Unfortunately there is no rest, the American nonsense war propaganda goes and the pressure on us Europeans is mounting to escalate the conflict with Russia. Its dangerous and completely detrimental to our interests. Its just the USA and some Eastern states which push this.
This another good channel, they speculate about possible Polish interventions:
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Considering how much effort Macron and Johnson are putting into supporting Ukraine, it seems the East has been expanding rapidly…
Heads-up to Americans for sharing the intelligence information on Russian preparations. This may have saved Kyiv and enabled other countries to boost support to Ukraine even before the invasion.
Russia announced today that “phase one” is complete. Guess they’ll keep on digging in where they are at now, but I wonder if there are enough motivated soldiers to wage a pure attack war. In Russian opinion polls, 80% of people have declined to reveal their opinion. In a country where you cannot express yourself freely, this is telling. People in Odessa, a Russian-speaking Ukrainian city, are filling sandbags and are proud of living in a free country.
Another interesting fact - Soviet Union, which was larger than Russia is now, lost 30 000 soldiers during their 10 years in Afghanistan. They have lost up to 15 000 during this past month…
Heads-up to Americans for sharing the intelligence information on Russian preparations. This may have saved Kyiv and enabled other countries to boost support to Ukraine even before the invasion.
Russia announced today that “phase one” is complete. Guess they’ll keep on digging in where they are at now, but I wonder if there are enough motivated soldiers to wage a pure attack war. In Russian opinion polls, 80% of people have declined to reveal their opinion. In a country where you cannot express yourself freely, this is telling. People in Odessa, a Russian-speaking Ukrainian city, are filling sandbags and are proud of living in a free country.
Another interesting fact - Soviet Union, which was larger than Russia is now, lost 30 000 soldiers during their 10 years in Afghanistan. They have lost up to 15 000 during this past month…
Northener
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Imo your 'solidarity' with Putin's Russia is based on the conviction that Putin is systematically 'cancel cultured'. I will not discuss if this is the case or that starting a war (and already actions before that) opens a box of pandora which contains counter reactions.
Imo you at least underestimate the 'rage' that is caused by an offensive, 'revengist' agenda of Putin (caused by the fall of SU and attempts to restore) towards the 'outside' and the autocratic/ repressive internal agenda (see the smother/ poisoning policy towards opposition). You may be consider this propaganda from the West. Imo this a certainly a reality and so we keep on differing on this matter...
I follow world and geopolitics in general, not just in the Russian case, and observed some patterns unfolding. The Syrian war was a major issue, where the US aggressive and hypocritical, even openly lying war course became more than obvious. When the USA decided to support Sunni extreme Islamists in Syria and attacked the Syrian people which tried to fight them off, I was already 100 percent on the Russian side in the conflict. And even back then, if you remember correctly, Hillary Clinton was ready to start a war with Russia, a so called "No-Fly Zone" and only the election of Trump prevented that catastrophy from happening.
Right now they still have troops in Syria, the Americans, and they still support openly extremist Sunni "rebels", many of which are not even Syrians, but outside mercenaries.
The whole conflict goes much deeper and much beyond, since I also followed the US foreign policy for decades and their interferences in Eastern Europe before the current escalation. The situation in Donbas and the Ukraine regime as such, with the Seleneski regimes ties to international organisations, big money & big tech, regional oligarchs and the US services, being an issue I also followed. You get a lot of extreme right groups which follow the US war path, some are even the exceptional case for a couple of European countries. The right is split on the issue.
I feel very uncomfortable about this war as such, but for me its the Americans and the Selenski regime which are primarily to blame. Their actions were totally aggressive and confrontational towards Russia, towards pro-Russian people in the Ukraine. They, in practise, declared war and denied all negotiations. Simple as that.
This is for me unacceptable behaviour. What Putin did, for the 100th time, is wrong too, because that much suffering and destruction is not justified even if he had a rightful cause, for purely humane considerations. But what the Selenski regime, backed up and pushed by the Biden administration did is unacceptable behaviour and I totally get why Putin lost temper with these big mouthed agent provocateurs. I followed it for years and its just awful what they did and how they tried to form an anti-Russian Ukraine by purging the country and getting all the tools from the US services.
Bottom line: I don't like what both sides did, I don't give any side higher moral ground. But if a side fights to defend its ethnic and political allies against an attack, they are better than those which just want to reconquer territories which don't even want to belong to their state. That's coming even before the political content and direction the Selenski regime is going. If the Russians would occupy, after a reasonable peace offer from the Ukraine, non-Russian Ukrainian territories, especially of the Central-West Ukraine, then they would be indeed regional oppressors much more than they are by now.
By now, the Ukrainians still refuse to negotiate in a honest and serious manner, and I have no sympathy for their political stance on negotiations, zero. I have a lot of sympathy for the Ukrainian people, but not for the government and its aggressive stance.
Vallicanus
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@Riverman
It's ZELENSKY!
It's ZELENSKY!
Northener
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a. Do you consider the constitutional/ institutional side of the US and the EU countries like wise Putin's Russia, then I tal about free election, rights to demonstrate, free prees, trias politica? In other words you don't see the difference between a democratic an autocratic system? Or do ypu consider them likewise.
b. Isn't it clear that Putin follows the scorched earth tactic in places like Mariupol....if our (yours and mine) major concern is the people then we must agree that this is clearly anti-moral ground, doesn't it? I would say: how low can you go?
Malaparte
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I think that different peoples should be free to develop their own political institutions, and in any case the Russian system is more collegial and bureaucratic than it is autocratic. What exactly do you even mean when they toss around such terms as "autocratic"? Do you actually intend it as a descriptive term?
Moreover, governments in the West have made a mockery of their own constitutional orders over the past several years, and this has happened after decades of systematically undermining the integrity of the peoples they purport to represent.
Although I have been accused of being a Putin apologist -- I would call it *strategic empathy* (http://cftni.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Grover-John-Official.pdf) -- in truth my greatest *sympathy* is with the ardent nationalists on the Ukraine side. However, it is a simple fact that Ukrainian forces in the East have retreated from the open plains into the cities, where the Russians have encircled them. The Azov Battalion was ensconsed in Mariupol, and short of starving them out, the only way for Russia to defeat them was to pound the city with artillery and advance block-by-block and door-by-door. Urban warfare is hell, but in fairness, I think Russia has sought to limit civilian casualties to the extent possible. Remember, there are many Russian-speakers who live in these cities, people who are on Russia's side. I imagine that if Russia were to move against Lviv or other cities in the west of Ukraine, civilian suffering will be many times worse.
But for perspective, you should compare Russia's actions in Mariupol with those of the US army in Fallujah. Have the Russians denied water & electricity to Mariupol or any other encircled cities?
Cf. http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/27a/168.html
Malaparte
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Linking Dugin's "Ethnosociology of Ukraine in the Context of Military Operation"
https://katehon.com/en/article/ethnosociology-ukraine-context-military-operation
[FONT="]Although Dugin is not part of Putin's inner circle, or has much practical influence, he appears to articulate much of the underlying philosophy of the Russian side. For Dugin, the Ukraine is a heterogenous assemblage of ethnoi, most of whom belong to the East Slav people and civilizational block.
[/FONT]
https://katehon.com/en/article/ethnosociology-ukraine-context-military-operation
[FONT="]Although Dugin is not part of Putin's inner circle, or has much practical influence, he appears to articulate much of the underlying philosophy of the Russian side. For Dugin, the Ukraine is a heterogenous assemblage of ethnoi, most of whom belong to the East Slav people and civilizational block.
[/FONT]
Northener
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Clearly:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autocracy
Putin is going back to Stalin and Czaristisc Russia.
The media is in total control. Protesting against the war, what isn't allowed it can cost you 15 years of prison (and that's no pleasure that's pure hell).
And the opposition is literally expelled an literally poisoned (polonium attacks based on ukazes of the Kremlin) and if you survive the poisoned attempts it's one way ticket Siberia like in the old days.
I consider everyone who lives in the US or Europe totally spoiled who thinks that what is going in Russia can be compared to what is going on in the West.
Anyone who thinks that he can make as big a mouth in Russia as in the Netherlands or the US is wrong. And I'm not going to explain what the US constitution is and what the value is that the founding fathers have laid down. You know that better than me. But I think you should be ashamed of yourself if you think this comes close to what's going on in Russia constitutional and practically in terms of repression. Sorry I don't mince words.....
Sorry, and I'm not going to make a comparison in suffering. That's abject imo. Putin's army starves, freezes, partially deports (to gods know were) the people in Mariupol and bombs the shit out of them (the whole city is practically to ashes). That tells me enough.
PS and yes people in Mariupol are out of electricity in starving cold and drink restwater from radiators....
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The democratic system is better as long as it works, a corrupted democracy which pushes its people in the wrong direction is another issue. Besides, that's not my point, because a democratic state can conquer and suppress a people and an autocratic state can help and protect a people.
The internal structure of a democratic state is better, generally speaking, and opens up more possibilities for peaceful change and development, usually. But that doesn't make it better if it does what the Ukraine does and it doesn't make it worse for the Russians. You understand? One is the internal political structure, the other is a concrete struggle or conflict. That are two different things.
In this concrete case:
- The Ukraine is a manipulated and corrupt state, the Selenski regime acts autocratic and purged its society brutally as well. No big difference to Russia, just different people being the victims.
- Going by democratic values, the most important is the freedom of a people to decide to which state they want to belong, under which rule they want to live. If the Donbas Russians and Crimeans being asked, they might prefer Russia. At least that's what I think they would do, but Ukraine doesn't care, they fight a war to force them back under their control.
No, he does not. If the Ukrainian forces in the city move block by block, of course block by block will be destroyed the Russian forces. What else? They hide in a building and fire from this building on the Russians, the Russians will destroy it.
Russia has, by no means, applied a general scorched earth tactic. Even on the contrary, they were more reluctant and more careful than e.g. the Americans were in some given situations. Fact is however, that the fighting is so hard, so costly and difficult, that in this urban warfare the destruction of the city landscape which being used by the defenders is practically inevitable.
If there is low level resistance, or if the Ukrainian forces don't use a district for their urban warfare tactics, they being all spared. I watched videos of Russians moving many kilometers into Ukraine, and along the road they use, almost no single building being destroyed or even damaged. The destruction is all in areas in which the Ukrainians use the civilian structures like a trenches.
E.g., the Ukrainians used schools and other civilian buildings as ammunition depots, for artillery positions and snipers. Then, when the Russians have to bombard those targets, the biased Western media cries about "Russians hitting a school" - no children there, but an ammunition depot!
Its horrible if they hit a building in which civilians sought refuge, like it happened too often already, but many times its either a military target or it was an accident. I have seen so far no single incident in which it could be proven that the Russians killed innocent civilians deliberately, intentionally. Especially not in general, as a doctrine. Probably if in one area a commander loses temper or the like, but that's definitely not general tactic "Putin applies".
This is no war crime other than what the Ukrainians do, its no scorge earth tactic, its just a rough and dirty urban warfare. That's the strategy the Ukrainians have chosen, and we can't blame them for that either, because if they would have tried to defend Ukraine in the open, the fights would be over in two weeks indeed. But its immoral to blame the Russians for using the tactics and means any reasonable military leader would apply, even if caring for the civilians, to break the resistance in these fortified urban pockets. That's an absurd hypocrisy.
Its war itself which is that awful, not a particularly mean tactic of the Russians.
It is simple: The Ukrainians didn't negotiate, they provoked the Russians and they wanted to start a limited war to conquer people which don't want to be part of their state in Donbas and Crimea. Russia realised that they can't hold them back or end this conflict by just helping from one side in Donbas, so they started a pincer movement to break the main Ukrainian forces, especially those in Donbas, which are the main effective UAF units.
The military target is to break the resistance of the Ukrainian Armed forces, in the areas to the North and South. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian forces retreated to cities and used these as fortified urban bases, for a dirty urban warfare. To inflict maximal damage on the Russians, for having the maximal amount of "incidences" in the course of actions. The Russian task is to break the resistance of this urban fortified positions and for doing that, they need to level the ground around the fighters. This is the logic of this kind of warfare, its the logical reaction to the Ukrainian tactics.
This has zero to do with moral, its military necessity. The only way to prevent it is to stop the war. And the only way to stop the war is coming to a peaceful solution, dipomatically. This brings us back to the absurd Ukrainian and American position, which refused to even accept Crimea, which refused to accept Minks II or the autonomy of Donbas, which attacked the Donbas and still refuse to negotiate seriously.
Scorched earth tactic being applied to destroy the infrastructure and resources of a region, usually by the side which couldn't hold it and wanted to reduce its value for the - at that time - stronger opponent. The Russians wanted to conquer cities and districts with an intact infrastructure. They had no interest and they do not apply scorched earth tactics at all. They just use blunt force to break the resistance of the Ukrainian fighters which use urban, including civilian structures, to protect themselves, inflict maximal damage to the Russians and provoke as much incidents as possible.
That's like a guy which steals your money, you follow him, and he finally makes a stand, but does so in the midst of women and children. You have the choice of letting him go, with your money, or to fight in front of women and children, and take from the perpetrator back what you want. Who is responsible if bystanders get hurt? The one running into such a space, and refusing to fight elsewhere, or the one attacking him, in this environment, for getting what he wants? The battleground was chosen by the Ukrainians, not the Russians.
Again, I don't blame them for doing so, because they would be utterly destroyed in the open, much quicker, with much less losses for the Russians. But I also don't blame the Russians, because the Ukrainians gave them no other choice.
The only other choice is to end this war altogether, and that needs a diplomatic solution... Its always the same.
Malaparte
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Russian government has presidential characteristics, but also collegial aspects (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collegium_(ministry)). Putin has a legal background as well as a KGB background. If you want to kid yourself that Putin rules as some kind of banana republic strongman, then whatever . . . In truth, he is a very capable statesman
I never endorsed the Russian system of government or their culture and traditions. I said that Putin wasn't an "autocrat," because such terms obscure the depth and breadth of Putin's institutional and popular support.
Further, you vilify Russia but fail to speak against recent trends in the West toward a kind of police state run by technocratic henchmen of transnational oligarchs. Is it as brutal as Russia? Not at this stage, but it will probably prove more dehumanizing in the long-run if not opposed effectively.
In the fog of war, it is hard to tell what exactly is going on. My understanding is that Russia has set up corridors for people to leave the city. Some say the Ukraine fighters prevent civilians from leaving Mariupol in order to use them as human shields. But commentators who say this (I refer to the two Alex's on The Duran) also call the nationalist fighters "nazis," and I distrust such talk for reasons similar to my objections to your use of "autocrat" to describe Putin.
Northener
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A democratic system is inherent better than an autocratic one.
Claude Lefort, very relevant in this respect (wiki)
Putin fails to conquer Mariupol. It has a demotivated army. And what are they going to do, blow it to rubble. And starve them out. No mercy. Who suffers: the ordinary people.
Diplomatic solution? Putin will not negotiate sincerely until he has big parts of the Ukraine under control. Why should he negotiate? Not of his interest until he controls now plan B parts of the east. And Zelenski can't do anything else that countervail the attack as good as possible so he is not totally blown away when the negotiations will start seriously.
There is propaganda from both sides and we oftentimes don't know what's really going on in a region. Like recently a commentator in the USA is supposed to have accused the Russians of shelling civilians in a territory of Donbas they control - in fact it was the Ukrainians who attacked there. Another time civilians being shot at, which tried to leave Mariupol: Both sides claim it was the other side! Who is right, who is wrong? Was it even intential, and if so what was the motif? We don't know, but the Western media always and without any differentiation blames the Russians, while looking away from a whole lot of proven war crimes the Ukrainians commit.
Including torture, mutiliation and killing of Russian prisoners of war, of pro-Russian people within Ukraine. Attacks on civilians which tried to flee, brutal measures against men which want to leave the country, shelling of civilian targets in Donbas and Russia - without any meaningful military target or goal!
There is no higher moral ground, no better behaviour. Its just that the Russians being forced to fight the Ukrainian forces in Ukrainian cities - that's the battlefield they have chosen. Anything else is a lot of propaganda from both sides, and we often can't decide who is right, who is wrong, who did this, who did that.
But the Western media always looks away and ignores what the Ukrainians do wrong, while blaming the Russians even for things they either never did or being normal military behaviour and tactics under the given circumstances. Even fairly civilised, considering the situation.
We probably will know the truth about many incidents only in years from now, or if the censorship and manipulation is effective and lasts, never.
Let's assume I would agree with you: Even that wouldn't make concrete actions of a state which calls itself democratic always better and more just. The Americans did horrible things to other people, democratic or not. Democracy is the inner structure of a society, in a conflict, these inner rules and structures might not apply to the opponent.
And the Ukraine, by and large, can't be considered as being democratic in the American, German, Austrian or Dutch way. Not at all. What happens in the areas controlled by the Ukrainians is also suppressive and brutal. I know the Western media don't show what the mob in the Ukrainian cities is doing to Russians they consider "pro-Russian" or whatever, but I saw some proven images and its just awful. If that's your democracy, its no different from Bolshevism or National Socialism in how it treats its opponents, if not worse.
If the Ukrainians mine the roads, put artillery close to civilian buildings and position snipers on all floors, it doesn't matter how motivated an army is, only idiots would go in without shooting the district to rubble before. Would you as a commander let your boys, motivated or not, into such a trap? If you have enough artillery, to blow those urban guerilla warriors away?
That's no question of motivation, humanism or morality, its a question of intelligence and responsibility for the boys you command. I would of course blow the s**t out of those hidden in the buildings before sending any boys in. That's the kind of urban warfare the Ukrainians have chosen, for completely understandable reasons, to inflict maximal casualties on the Russians, hold them up far longer and causing as many "incidents" as possible. But to blame the other side for doing what's reasonable in such a situation is hypocrisy at best.
I listen to many sources and all confirm: The Ukrainians made no peace offer which is even worth to be heard. As long as this is the case, the blame is on them. I wrote before: If the Ukrainians give up on Crimea, on Donbas, make guarantees for traffic and water supply to Crimea and promise neutrality - that's the mininum, I give the blame to Putin and Russia.
As long as they demand the Russians to leave all territories of the pre-2014 Ukrainian state borders, including Crimea, and no promise for neutrality, only vague talks and still trying to draw the NATO and Americans into the war directly, they are to blame.
Both sides have to compromise, if one side is willing, like Russia was, but the other side not... This can change.
Obviously, if Putin and Russia get no diplomatic bridge, if they get no way out of the sanctions and the Western states will never come back to the old relations of the last years, we might already see that Russia won't be satisfied with the old demands any longer, but tries to conquer at least all Russian speaking territories of the East and South.
This is an ongoing conflict, militarily and diplomatically. New information, like always, can change a perspective, including my own.
I already said, that a lasting occupation of the Western-Central Ukraine by the Russian forces, once the Ukrainians make a serious offer for a peace, which the West does support - which would allow Russia to come out of the sanctions as well - I would blame Russia exclusively if they don't agree and demand more. That's a red line.
But so far, the Selenski regime and the USA made not even the most minimal offer for the Russians. Its ridiculous what they demand. That's obviously completely inacceptable for the Russian side and any reasonable observer knows that.
Look, and that's the main reason for my grudge on his regime and him personally: He was voted for, by the Ukrainian people, in a totally skewed and manipulated, but still democratic election, to end this war, to come to terms with Russia. Did he do anything for peace? No, he just started an even more aggressive and confrontational course, completely on the American side of things. He betrayed his voters, to begin with.
Next: Everything he can achieve, in fair negotiations, would have been achievable 3, 2 or 1 year ago! Instead of even trying, seriously, he only made provocations and attacks on the Russians. He escalated this conflict.
If he would have taken the negotiations seriously, like he promised, in his election campaign, there would have been no war at all! No dead Russian soldiers, no dead Ukrainian soldiers, no dead Ukrainian civilians, no destroyed cities, no threat of a World War III! This was in his hands, he was elected to do it, but he chose the path for the oligarchs which supported him in the election and afterwards, as well as the American agents and services, which supported him as well.
Its entirely his fault, Selenski caused this - and the Ukrainians didn't even vote for this, like so many people around the world didn't vote for politicians to do what they do. That's the problem of democracy in general, this kind of corruption, but in this case the consequences are particularly horrible and bitter.
I can't forgive that. This is about very concrete actions Selenski and his regime have taken, which led to this war. This horrible and unnecessary war. He is, minimum, as much responsible for the escalation as Putin. Just from the other side of the fence, to put it that way.
Tomenable
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Riverman,
President Zelensky said - "Remember, together there's 90 million of us":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=du2e8l2Sc6k
^^^
This is exactly the population of Poland+Ukraine+Belarus+Baltic States:
^^^
Ukraine has 37,300,000 without Russian-occupied Crimea (2,416,856), Donetsk & Luhansk Republics (3,766,483):
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine--population-shrinks-23-percent-2001/30393838.html
=====
The Commonwealth (Rzeczpospolita) at its maximum extent:
President Zelensky said - "Remember, together there's 90 million of us":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=du2e8l2Sc6k
^^^
This is exactly the population of Poland+Ukraine+Belarus+Baltic States:
^^^
Ukraine has 37,300,000 without Russian-occupied Crimea (2,416,856), Donetsk & Luhansk Republics (3,766,483):
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine--population-shrinks-23-percent-2001/30393838.html
=====
The Commonwealth (Rzeczpospolita) at its maximum extent:
Tomenable
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^^^
President Zelensky hinted at resurrecting the Commonwealth when he said "remember, together there's 90 million of us".
This number fits just perfectly to the current population of nations of the former Commonwealth - I'm sure he counted it.
The injustice of the Partitions of the Commonwealth will be reversed, it's about the right of people to determine their own future:
President Zelensky hinted at resurrecting the Commonwealth when he said "remember, together there's 90 million of us".
This number fits just perfectly to the current population of nations of the former Commonwealth - I'm sure he counted it.
The injustice of the Partitions of the Commonwealth will be reversed, it's about the right of people to determine their own future:
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