Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

Like some other analysts, I'm not sure Ukrainian nationalists really like the idea. Selenski tries to appeal to many people, movements and ideas to get as much support as he can.
It's understandable, but people need to keep that in mind.
 
Here is why the Partitions of the Commonwealth (Rzeczpospolita) were ILLEGAL :

No international power (apart from those which were directly involved in partitioning Rzeczpospolita - i.e. Russia, Prussia and Austria) recognized the partitions of Rzeczpospolita directly (i.e. declared that "we accept the partitions of Rzeczpospolita, bla, bla, bla"). We can argue if any of international powers recognized them indirectly (implicitly). Indeed there were arguments about this during the decades following the Polish regaining of independence in 1918.

In 1918 the Polish Supreme Court initiated a discussion about the character of the bond between the First Rzeczpospolita (pre-1795) and the Second Rzeczpospolita (post-1918) in the context of Polish private property and estates confiscated after the January Uprising (1863).

The Polish Supreme Court stated, that Rzeczpospolita after the 3rd Partition continued to exist. It argued that:


- Rzeczpospolita collapsed by force, which was contrary to the international law.
- Western Powers never recognized the partitions of Rzeczpospolita.
- partitioning Rzeczpospolita was contrary to the right of self- determination of peoples.


In 1918 the Supreme Court announced the resumption of activities of state authorities of the Polish state, which had never ceased to exist (according to the Supreme Court).

In the 1920s this position of the Polish Supreme Court was not questioned by anyone.

Also the Polish Constitution of March 1921 supported this position of the Supreme Court.

The preamble of the constitution of March 1921 says (translation):

In the name of Almighty God!
We, the Polish Nation, thanking Providence for liberating us from a hundred years long enslavement, remembering with gratitude the courage and perseverance of sacrificial struggle of generations, who their best efforts constantly devoted to the case of independence, referring to the great tradition of the memorable Constitution of May 3 - bearing in mind the welfare of the entire united and independent Mother Homeland, and desiring to reassure its independent existence, power and safety, as well as social order on everlasting principles of law and freedom, desiring also to ensure the development of its moral and material forces for the sake of entire renascent humanity, protecting equality, respect for labor, owing rights and special state care of all citizens of Rzeczpospolita - this here's Constitutional Act on the Legislative Sejm of Rzeczpospolita Polska resolve and proclaim.
 
"If we held a referendum today, 98 percent of Belarusians would vote against unification with Russia", said Lukashenko:

https://tvn24.pl/tvn24-news-in-engl...s-army-spending-only-russias-ra914204-2311263


Meanwhile, already in 2012 Belarusian portal BramaBy published this article about the idea of Polish-Belarusian Confederation:

"Rzeczpospolita?


Tuesday, 16 October 2012 00:00

By A. Vorotnicky


Apparently, the time has come. As one of the well-known politicians of the past used to say: "Yesterday it was too early, tomorrow it will be too late." Hovering in the air, the idea of ​​rescuing Belarus from its currently obvious imminent collapse, absorption and dissolution in the vast eastern spaciousness, finally, has merged into a single, crystal clear and harmonious solution. In a nutshell, it sounds simple yet very provocative: Rzeczpospolita.


It's amazing, how just a year ago such an idea, hypothetically brought up by me in "The Phantom of the Grand Duchy," and discussed together with colleagues on Brama blog, had been seen not only ephemeral, but absolutely unsuitable for implementation at the time. And now, after only one political season, refracted through the prism of events of the past year, the idea of ​​Confederation of Belarus and Poland presents itself as an almost perfectly assembled puzzle for every one concerned!


First of all, I would like to examine the causes of emergence of the idea of ​​Confederacy, or, shell I say, of its transformation into a real prospect today, but not 15, 10, or 5 years ago, or even a year ago. The leading and decisive role, in my opinion, in such a development played the events that followed first elections in Belarus, and then - in Russia. What seemed like something of a distant future, as one of the theoretically possible scenarios, has rapidly and irreversibly turned into reality: the Republic of Belarus over the last year and a half de facto has lost its sovereignty because of the actions of its own leadership and currently it is only a matter of time when its formal incorporation in one form or another into the Russian Federation becomes a reality. We will not describe all the events that led to such a sad outcome: I believe that those who are not clear on the issue simply have not read as far as these lines.


This is precisely the reason why almost any alternative to what has been repeatedly and consistently disastrous in practice, is not simply the lesser of evils, but in fact, is the way out from the final solution of the "Belarus question." In this light the unification of Belarus with the Republic of Poland in a confederate state under the old blueprint of the Commonwealth, but with a modern framework and content, finds a completely new and fresh look. Based on today's realities, let us consider such a prospect impartially and in as much detail as possible, particularly - the doubts, fears and obstacles that raise objections about the viability of such an idea.


First, playing against it is a widely covered in the state propaganda notorious "genetic memory of Belarusians." Based on the statements of the Belarusian officialdom, the press, the things that taught to children and young people in today?s Belarus education system, Belarusians will recall (or will have to remember) the centuries of living together with the Poles in the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, and then "under the Crown" as the periods of the Belarusian nation levelling, the eradication of Belarusian identity right down to the physical destruction of its medium as such. Of course, long-term promotion of these theses, to some extent, succeeded: a fairly large proportion of the population has firmly established a stereotype of the western neighbour as one of the occupier still dreaming, in the words of the Belarus official leader, "of the border close to Minsk." And all this is most certainly to drive the Belarusians in a stall, to turn them into cattle or at least into the second-class human beings.


Needless to say that to overcome such an attitude (cultivated, by the way, even during the Soviet era, perhaps ?just in case?) was absolutely impossible even a couple of years ago. Not the slightest possibility. Under the pseudo stable state of affairs and a semblance of the prospect to steer clear as an independent state between the Scylla of a string of domestic political and economic crises and Charybdis of unpredictably forever transforming Russia, the thesis of the confederation would look no more and no less than a betrayal of the national interests. Today, when every single national interest has been betrayed, sold, or collateralised such scrupulosity fells down like fake gilding. Today it is about self-salvation of the nation, therefore, the past and existing counter-theses, which destroy the previously established image of the greedy and treacherous Poland, have no doubt far more influence than ever before. Our objective is to formulate and convey them to the doubters, and that is the first priority on our to do list.


The second and more serious obstacle, not only in implementation, but even in promotion of the idea is an immediate, hard and uncompromising counter action by Russia. Neo-imperial aspirations of the rapidly becoming authoritarian eastern neighbour are at a fault with any frivolity of freethinking in the post-Soviet space, and even more so in a hurry to please newly whacked out Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. There is no doubt that the Russian establishment will make every possible effort to prevent any action in this direction, including by hands of de facto puppet Belarusian regime. And if concerns about the rejection of the idea of Confederation by society are solvable through counter-propaganda and ideological influence, the neo-imperialist process of absorption from the east can only be neutralized by a speedy dissemination and adoption of the idea of ​​confederalism among the equally global players: the EU, the USA and probably China.


The third stumbling block is related to the views on the idea of Confederation within Poland itself. At first glance, may that be an attractive reincarnation of long-cherished desire to restore the former greatness? At the same time, Polish community is well aware of the danger in the modern realities of being accused of "absorption" or "Annexation" of the foreign territories. It is also important to address concerns of appearing under the shell of the common state of an unstable, Fronde like region, and even a kind of "pseudo Chechnya." But if the above controversy is almost fully resolved by a wisely and carefully articulated form of the Confederacy, with a clear delineation of rights and obligations of the parties entering into it, the fear of economic nature, at a first glance, seem almost insurmountable.


Nevertheless, I take the liberty to say that in today's realities the economic problems of the proposed Confederation will retreat into the background, yielding the palm to the moral, political and other intangible costs, inevitably arising once the project gets into implementation stage. In today's actively transforming world the economy, however vigorously presented as the cornerstone of everything, acts merely as a smoke screen. The examples of absolutely economically unjustified actions and, speaking the language of accounting, known to be loss-making operations by the world players are abound. In a situation where the absolute uncertainty prevails over the methods and results of the future value ​​of economic necessities of the world today (a world currency, oil, gas and even gold), there will inevitably come to the fore some other sets of values to measure influence of the world powers such as control over the useful areas of life, possession of human resources, access to fresh water etc. All of this will make enough counterweight to fears about potential economic failure of the proposed state entity.


Do not underestimate the opposition and the realization of the idea of ​​Confederation by the current regime in Belarus. There is no doubt that the completely dependent on the political will of Russia ruling class of Belarus, and in particular its highest echelon, will be forced to play on the side of the main opponent of the project, who most certainly will be Russia. However, the oppressive awareness of dependence and well-known personal European economic interests of the top Belarusian officials deny their actions at least sincerity, and at best those interests will force them to work in the field of non-proliferation of confederative ideas with their ?hands on the floor,? or they may even subtly encourage them to take this idea as an element of their favourite "multi-vector pendulous policy." Even today, Belarus authorities strenuously seek reference points, which could steer the much talked-about "Western vector", and in such conditions, the resistance to any "pro-Western" ideas will not be as fatal as, for example, six months ago.


In summary, it seems timely to open the most wide-ranging discussion in society - both in Belarus and in Poland - on the subject. Any manifestation of the topic - from the discussion of moral issues to development of road maps and technical elements of the Confederation - will help promote the idea and fix it on the agenda. I propose to bring the issue of Belarus and Poland Confederation by the joint effort from the state of deaf silence to the forefront of the Belarusian-Polish political discourse."
 
Let's assume I would agree with you: Even that wouldn't make concrete actions of a state which calls itself democratic always better and more just. The Americans did horrible things to other people, democratic or not. Democracy is the inner structure of a society, in a conflict, these inner rules and structures might not apply to the opponent.
And the Ukraine, by and large, can't be considered as being democratic in the American, German, Austrian or Dutch way. Not at all. What happens in the areas controlled by the Ukrainians is also suppressive and brutal. I know the Western media don't show what the mob in the Ukrainian cities is doing to Russians they consider "pro-Russian" or whatever, but I saw some proven images and its just awful. If that's your democracy, its no different from Bolshevism or National Socialism in how it treats its opponents, if not worse.

Indeed and I never stated that. Especially in the Ukraine the oligarch rule is terrible. And of course I can imagine what Ukrainian people can do to Russian soldiers or the ones who cooperate. And that they make failures in that respect all imaginable. But hey the Russians have no business there!



That's no question of motivation, humanism or morality, its a question of intelligence and responsibility for the boys you command. I would of course blow the s**t out of those hidden in the buildings before sending any boys in. That's the kind of urban warfare the Ukrainians have chosen, for completely understandable reasons, to inflict maximal casualties on the Russians, hold them up far longer and causing as many "incidents" as possible. But to blame the other side for doing what's reasonable in such a situation is hypocrisy at best.

No in which they are confronted with. And also points the filthy strategy of the Russian, wasn't this al started with 'liberate the brother people of a nazi regime'. How do you cope this reason with the strategy: bomb total cities to ash, that causes deliberately much lives of citizens not soldiers!


But so far, the Selenski regime and the USA made not even the most minimal offer for the Russians. Its ridiculous what they demand. That's obviously completely inacceptable for the Russian side and any reasonable observer knows that.

Suppose someone breaks into my house. He's trying to steal something. I stop him and, out of self-defense, I give him a good beating. What does Riverman say hohoh what's happening here, sit down and why didn't you offer the burglar anything?


I can't forgive that. This is about very concrete actions Selenski and his regime have taken, which led to this war. This horrible and unnecessary war. He is, minimum, as much responsible for the escalation as Putin. Just from the other side of the fence, to put it that way.

Always the same song Riverman, you make Putin a victim instead of a perpetrator. And you're constantly apologizing to him. And every time with the childish argument 'just look what others do....' Wrong deeds of others are no excuse for Putin.
 
Most importantly, Russia is a cat country while Ukraine is a dog country, they just don't belong together:


https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-a.../blogs/wonkblog/files/2014/07/world.png&w=480

imrs.php
 
Always the same song Riverman, you make Putin a victim instead of a perpetrator. And you're constantly apologizing to him. And every time with the childish argument 'just look what others do....' Wrong deeds of others are no excuse for Putin.


You might as well interact with a bot. Riverman is just a human acting lika a bot.:LOL:
 
Indeed and I never stated that. Especially in the Ukraine the oligarch rule is terrible. And of course I can imagine what Ukrainian people can do to Russian soldiers or the ones who cooperate. And that they make failures in that respect all imaginable. But hey the Russians have no business there!

No business there? Like Americans in Iraq or Libya? Definitely not. Was part of Russia, of the Russian state and cultural sphere and is full of ethnic Russians, especially in the East and South, the regions Russia primarily cares for. Besides, the arrests, kidnapping, torturing and killing of Russians and alleged pro-Russians goes beyond anything which can be legitimised. Many of these people are either innocent or regular Russian soldiers, do they expect the Russians to do the same to the Ukrainians? The Western media even showed images of tortured soldiers saying things they got blackmailed to say and use it as anti-Russian propaganda. This is against all elements of good behaviour and rightful treatment of POW's.
Its quite typical that the Western media accuses Russia of absurd and invented "war crimes" while fully accepting, even supporting, what the Ukrainian regime does. Remember, a pro-Russian sentiment and political movement being omnipresent in Ukraine, these were democratically elected and supported parties and organisations, general views held up by many. And the Selenski regime started with a grand scale persecution even before the new escalation started, in fact, this was a major issue and part of the prelude to the current escalation, one of the big reasons for it.
And you justify that? This just shows how biased you are against Russians and Russian interests. And I repeat that a reaction to these actions of Selenski has zero to do with "the madman Putin", this being a very Russian national interest and self defense. Only people which don't care for the Russian state and people at all would just have shrugged and said "nevermind".

No in which they are confronted with. And also points the filthy strategy of the Russian, wasn't this al started with 'liberate the brother people of a nazi regime'. How do you cope this reason with the strategy: bomb total cities to ash, that causes deliberately much lives of citizens not soldiers!

If the defending side hides between civilians, civilians get hit. What else do you want? You don't even know whether the majority of civilians there want it that way. Many might think, "why the hell aren't the UAF going elsewhere, instead of hiding in my appartment block..."
That's the decision of the Ukrainian forces, where they put up the resistance. Everything in the vicinity of a military position will be hit. This has nothing to do with morality, humanity, ethnic brotherhood, liberation or anything else. It was the same in any war, unless a regime would have had so many soldiers and not cared for them enough to just sent them in as cannon fodder.

Suppose someone breaks into my house. He's trying to steal something. I stop him and, out of self-defense, I give him a good beating. What does Riverman say hohoh what's happening here, sit down and why didn't you offer the burglar anything?

Imagine you live in the house of the ex-husband of the woman living there now. And he just wants "his belongings back", because its bad enough that his wife left him, was treacherous and now agitates against him, but he at least wants his belongings back, then you two can do whatever you want with the rest of the house.

Always the same song Riverman, you make Putin a victim instead of a perpetrator. And you're constantly apologizing to him. And every time with the childish argument 'just look what others do....' Wrong deeds of others are no excuse for Putin.

No, Putin is a perpetrator too. He shouldn't have escalated the war as he did, before still trying other options, like a limited support for Donbas. Because, its very important to note: The war was coming anyway, Selenski already planned it, he wanted to take Donbas back by force. So Putin had no choice between war and peace, but only between leaving his allies and fellow Donbas Russians alone, to their horrible fate, acting more limited or going full scale attack. He chose the last, but war was chosen by the Selenski regime, Putin just escalated more than expected, for strategical reasons.

By the way, did you care for the Armenians too, which being attacked and expelled by the Azerbaijani? Only the Russians help the Christian orthodox Armenians in their struggle, nobody else. People just looked away when they got attacked and expelled, had to destroy their age old beautiful village and the Azerbaijani made a celebration of their victory, with the support of Turkey and the USA.

You see, the conflict is much bigger, its also in Syria, Armenia and elsewhere, and always the Americans make tearful propaganda only for one side, the side they care about, geostrategically, to weaken their competitors. but deliberatley look away from Armenia, Yemen, Bahrain, Ethiopia, Libya etc. Even if they caused the catastrophy, no American politicans gets indicted officially or extradites all the less. But political leaders doing far less, or in much more dire and desperate situations, being regularly "hanged". If that's no skewed "justice", what is it?

And here again, might Putin be wrong, yes, he is no more wrong than Selenski and the Americans, and he has much more at stake and legitimate interests (Russian minority, Western promises and national security, own bases and direct ties etc.) than the USA had in most of the areas they brutally "intervened" in the last decades.

I don't excuse what Putin does more than what Selenski and Biden do, I just weigh their interests, legitimation and actions. They are on par. No more, no less. No moral higher ground for any side. Its not my war, its just that the Western propaganda is so extremely anti-Russian, full of hate and warmongering. That's the worst part.
 
If the defending side hides between civilians, civilians get hit. What else do you want? You don't even know whether the majority of civilians there want it that way. Many might think, "why the hell aren't the UAF going elsewhere, instead of hiding in my appartment block..."
That's the decision of the Ukrainian forces, where they put up the resistance. Everything in the vicinity of a military position will be hit. This has nothing to do with morality, humanity, ethnic brotherhood, liberation or anything else. It was the same in any war, unless a regime would have had so many soldiers and not cared for them enough to just sent them in as cannon fodder.

The point is contrary to what Putin stated 'liberate the people' is now 'bomb the people' so what does this say about the initial motive, megalomania and he doesn't care about the brother folk....really this only suits in his picture to be the neo czar and nothing else. Otherwise he could have made other choices.

Imagine you live in the house of the ex-husband of the woman living there now. And he just wants "his belongings back", because its bad enough that his wife left him, was treacherous and now agitates against him, but he at least wants his belongings back, then you two can do whatever you want with the rest of the house.

In such cases: accept this, lost case, when you think you 'own' someone bad luck forget it....And bring in violence and play the mad man to get 'it' (her) back...see Tomenable: cat and dog as a result. The gap couldn't be wider....trust me I know this:p
 
The point is contrary to what Putin stated 'liberate the people' is now 'bomb the people' so what does this say about the initial motive, megalomania and he doesn't care about the brother folk....

You remember World War II? Britain did much worse than that, even to its actual and former allies. Like bombing France and French ships, soon after the French surrendered, without ever being attacked or threatened by these battle ships.

Or the many cases in which a "liberator" had to fight the other side back, by brute force. You make up a narrative which is just ridiculous. This is not even the local people fighting, its the Ukrainian armed forces which being put there, many come from other regions of the Ukraine, like West Ukraine or being mercenaries. I'm not saying there is no resistance to the Russians from the local Russian Ukrainians too, but that's after years of massive indoctrination, in the phased system the Ukrainian government created and its still not like every Ukrainian Russian, not even every Ukrainian Ukrainian, thinks like that.
The more the Selenski regime pushed and persecutes, the more brutal they are towards ethnic Russians and all, even moderate pro-Russian elements, the more there will be, over time, a movement of pro-Russian Russian Ukrainians which will ally up with their brethren in Russia and Donbas. You will see, things can change if given the chance. It all depends on the military-political outcome. Ukraine had its chance, to get excellent terms for its final departure from Russia, just fringe areas which don't belong to the Ukrainians anyway, and a neutral status. The real question is now, whether such favourable terms will be offered in a month or two, or in half a year. And that's where we might heading, if the Russians stay firm and keep up their fighting morale. If not, then the Urainians can demand as much or more.

But the best thing for all, Ukrainians and Russians, as well as the world, would have been a peace deal with Russia like Selenski promised it in his election campaign. Why not? That was just the oligarchs, nationalists and the US interference in the background which escalated the situation.

In such cases: accept this, lost case, when you think you 'own' someone bad luck forget it....And bring in violence and play the mad man to get 'it' (her) back...see Tomenable: cat and dog as a result. The gap couldn't be wider....trust me I know this:p

That's debatable, but even if I would accept that, I wouldn't accept that a treacherous person takes my belongings too and spits me in the face. That's the right comparison for the given case: If the Ukrainian regime wants an "anti-Russian state", they should give up on the areas and assets which are basically Russian anyway, especially Donbas and Crimea. Then they can go and have fun with their new lover, the USA. For me that sounds like a fair deal, especially since the people in the East and Crimea don't wanted that from happening anyway. This was a plan of the Western part of the Ukraine, of a corrupt oligarchic regime and the USA. Not the Ukraine as a whole.
People in the Ukraine are now much too afraid to tell the truth, or too manipulated to even realise what happened, all those power struggles and geostrategical gambling in the background. But its real, they were pawns in a big geopolitical gambling, whether they realise it or not. Nobody did them a favour when the USA started to weaponise the Ukraine against Russia.

On the long run, even the USA will pay for this. Russia anyway, Ukraine anyway. But the USA won't get away with this without taking damage themselves. The Dollar Empire being shaken and this "adventure" of the American political class, oligarchs and secret services already fired back on them. I just hope they don't get too trigger happy and start World War III in their delusional state of mind.
 
On the long run, even the USA will pay for this. Russia anyway, Ukraine anyway. But the USA won't get away with this without taking damage themselves. The Dollar Empire being shaken and this "adventure" of the American political class, oligarchs and secret services already fired back on them. I just hope they don't get too trigger happy and start World War III in their delusional state of mind.

Don't worry.
Putin will probably get trigger-happy first.
 
Don't worry.
Putin will probably get trigger-happy first.

You can accuse Putin a lot of things, but that rather not. He is usually quite patient and planned in his actions. Risk taking yes, but only in calculated manner.
Unless he's losging it and would be no longer the same person he was just two years ago.
That's nothing impossible, we saw it in various leaders throughout history, because of circumstances, age or most of the time a concrete disease, pathological process.
But so far I see no evidence for that, other than his face getting somewhat bloated in a pretty short time. His actions and talks are not off.
 
You can accuse Putin a lot of things, but that rather not. He is usually quite patient and planned in his actions. Risk taking yes, but only in calculated manner.
Unless he's losging it and would be no longer the same person he was just two years ago.
That's nothing impossible, we saw it in various leaders throughout history, because of circumstances, age or most of the time a concrete disease, pathological process.
But so far I see no evidence for that, other than his face getting somewhat bloated in a pretty short time. His actions and talks are not off.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-war-brian-klaas
 

That's the narrative of "Putins war" and "Putin is a madman". No he is not. And its not just Putins war. They attacked Russia, they attacked the Russians, they posed a threat to Russia and the Russians and took a completely hostile, menacing stance. Putin had to react, and the only Russians which don't see that are those which don't care for their state and people anyway. The same kind of people which don't care for their state and people in the West - so many young indeed, but not because they know better, but because they don't want to lose the Western luxury, being viewed nicely abroad and no sane person wants a war, especially not a war like this one. But if the other side, the Ukrainians and the Americans, act as they did, it gets close to having "no other choice".

The USA and the Selenski regime crossed multiple red lines in the last 3 years. Russia made a series of offers for negotiations and peace talks, honest offers with good conditions, better than they deserve, to the USA, to the Selenski regime. Russia did also appeal to practically all international institutions and organisations, they went the full legal way. But obviously, here again, the American influence on these organisations and the mass media blocked every peaceful path. The Selenski regime not just refused, they mocked Russia and just proceeded with their war course, arming up, preparing for the assault on Donbas, purging the Ukraine politically with authoritarian means and massive secret service support and secret money flowing into Ukraine. Selenski betrayed the Ukrainian voters, the Ukrainian people, by not doing anything for peace and ruining the democracy they had, with his political witch hunts and cleansing.

And I think he's finally beginning to wake up, but it might be too late for him, because either the Ukrainian nationalists get him or the Russians. Because the time for a good deal with Russia is running out. The more damage the Ukrainian-US confrontation with Russia causes the Russians, the worse the relationship with the European countries got, the less the Russian leadership cares. This was one big miscalculation for the Selenski regime and the USA. The USA have now just one alternative left: Start World War III as an aggressor, on their own. Nobody but Poland probably will support them - maybe Britain, but that's it.

French Macron, I'm obviously no big fan of him, finally broke the silence: We're not with the American warmongers, we're not supporting the US war against Russia up to the point of a 3rd World War. Germany, Austria, Hungary, etc., all made clear, that they need Russian relations and resources. The USA don't even pretend they could deliver gas in the same quality to the same price. They only promised on the short term 10 %! That's nothing! Here in Austria, in Germany, in Poland, Hungary, more than half of Europe, we would have the threat of a blackout and a total depression if being cut off from Russian gas! My family would sit in the dark and freeze, the companies our economy relies upon couldn't produce, the energy system would collapse. And even if the Arabs would deliver, because the Americans can't anyway, the price would be way too high. Its impossible.

They finally came to senses, hopefully, and made clear to the American warmonger, that if they want to go to war with Russia, they should do it on their own, take the full responsibility for their "regime change adventure" which will lead to World War III. Not with us, its not our war, we Europeans never wanted it, France and Germany in paricular didn't wanted this confrontation. It was done by the USA, its their responsibility to even have tried to encircle Russia, to get to his "soft belly" with such sneaky and treacherous methods, at a time Russia was absolutely willing to compromise, to take a pro-Western stance.

The USA will have shot in their own knee. The Russians just gather forces, with the next big swing they will break the UAF back in Donbas and that's it, then they can only run and won't stop before the Dnepr. If they are lucky, the Dnepr front will hold for some time longer, but I doubt it, because even though they counter attacked, the Russians already secured two bridgeheads anyway.

And once more some words to this nonsense about "scorged earth" tactics, which I refuted before already: If the Russians would like to do that, they could have done it to Kharkiv and Kiev alike already. But they only do it methodically, where they actually advance! That's the best proof for the Russians just using their blunt force where its being absolulely needed and where they have to support their infantry and mechanised divisions advances! They are still, after all that hate, after all those incidents with hostile Ukrainians, which even poisened young Russian soldiers, in their home and crap like that being celebrated by these ...., they still spare them if they can.
Because if they would want to, they could have laid Kharkiv and Kiev in ashes, completely, already. They don't have, because they give them time to consider another option: The diplomatic solution. Because they don't want "incidents" and next level escalation. However, they are ready to do it, if the Ukrainians don't come to senses and take, after all this death, crippled and wounded people, destroyed cities and landscapes, negotiations seriously. But for Selenski, that much is clear, the clock is ticking.
 
And concerning the treatment of POW: There are limits to cruelty, of what you do to regular captured soldiers. The Ukrainians, there is now more than enough evidence for it, crossed that line too. They will have to pay for this. Torturing and mutilating captured soldiers is beyond anything acceptable, regardless of what else. The only potential reason I can imagine is, if you want some absolutely crucial information, you know the captured soldier has it or he has done the same, proven case, to your people. But the Ukrainians do it to many Russians, regular young men, just being captured by them after regular fighting. Innocent young guys.

This kind of behaviour, this sneaky, cruel, abhorrent behaviour, will fall back on them too. The Russians will lose temper, they won't surrender any more, and they will retaliate, rightfully so.

Just like in Syria, the thugs are on the other side, not the one supported by the USA. I'm not saying the Russians can't get rough too, but there are limits, there are red lines, and the Ukrainians crossed it. This will fall back on them.

Some Ukrainian forces seem to think they can do whatever they want and get away with it. That's partisan style cruelty, dirty war, its awful. It won't work out and I just hope the perpetrators which tormented these poor Russian boys will have to pay for it.
 
A #Moscow City Duma deputy suggested that six more countries - #Kazakhstan, #Moldova, #Poland, #Lithuania, #Latvia, and #Estonia - should be "denazified":

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1507563413626658818

^^^
How nice, this list includes exactly the same "together there is 90 million of us" countries which Zelensky mentioned (except for Belarus, still under Lukashenko):

https://www.eupedia.com/forum/threads/42419-Zelensky-remembers-the-Commonwealth

=====

Russian television announced recently that a huge ship was going to arrive in a port near Mariupol with loads of ammo and other stuff.

Right after the ship pulled into harbor and was being unloaded, a Ukrainian ballistic missile blew it up, and probably damaged two other Russian ships:

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1506926803868340228

100% confirmed via many different sources.
 
If you would take every MP from any country serious and take what a single one of them says in any given situation as the position the real government has, on a given issue - well, that doesn't work out.

As for the Commonwealth and cultural spheres, its worth to note that the regions Russia seems now primarily interested in, tries to conquer and occupy, are exactly those which are primarily Russian speaking, Russian in culture and didn't belong to the Westenr states sphere in the historical past. The only other thing in common is that the Russians clearly want to cut off Ukraine from the sea and are unlikely to stop, unless they really lose a series of battles or the like, before they achieved that. This means Odessa is a must have for them, Mariupol anyway, because that was part of the uprising in 2014 even and just got fully reconquered with the areas around by the UAF with Western and nationalist forces.

Compare with the Eastern border of the Western states in the 17th century:
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/f4/bd/c7/f4bdc725acd5c559bb9bd0b84c2d29c9.png

18th century:
https://geocurrents.info/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Europe-1700-Euratlas.jpg

Its, btw, quite revealing to see this old footage, showing American politicians in 2017 in Ukraine, in this clip from Tucker, watch especially from minute 5:50:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PC7DzTRS7A
It really shows, just like in Syria, how deeply involved the American establishment was in this war from the start, not talking about the proof for direct intervention in the Ukrainian govermment, money going into the state and deep scale manipulation of the whole the country. The USA were the power which pushed the Ukrainians into this war. The USA made them unwilling for any political compromise with Russia!

The wording: "...dead Russian soldiers."

This was an obvious attack on Russian interests, on Russian people. Any claim about this being just "Putins war" and "Putin is a madman" is a cynical lie. Americans war, just like Syria, Libya, Iraq... Instead of helping the Ukrainians in a diplomatic compromise, they plunged them in a full scale war to hurt Russia. This was clearly irresponsible, inhumane and treacherous behaviour of the American establishment. Trump was exceptional in not pushing these unjust and dangerous wars at any cost. He faced the Russians too, drew red lines, but he himself didn't play confrontational to destroy dangerous enemies like these pseudo-Liberal and pseudo-Conservative maniacs, which, just like Selenski, betray their voters. If they would tell the truth, they would get zero support from the majority of the US population for their bloody adventures.
 
Once you throw the die, you can't take it back, as much as some scum here would like to reframe shit, dead children buried on frozen ground on the side of the road can not be excused. The die has been cast, there is no going back. Just have to wait and see how many dots the die has, and hope that face does not show a mushroom cloud.

Riverman, I take pity on you, as someone who benefits from the free world and drools at licking bloodied fascist boots from stepping on innocents you have lost any semblance of respect I had.

Now go on your whataboutism, I for one wont read it.
 
Once you throw the die, you can't take it back, as much as some scum here would like to reframe shit, dead children buried on frozen ground on the side of the road can not be excused. The die has been cast, there is no going back. Just have to wait and see how many dots the die has, and hope that face does not show a mushroom cloud.

Riverman, I take pity on you, as someone who benefits from the free world and drools at licking bloodied fascist boots from stepping on innocents you have lost any semblance of respect I had.

Now go on your whataboutism, I for one wont read it.

"Whataboutism" being only used by the Western establishment, mainstream and leftist extremists to denounce any argument they don't like, which would put their own claims in a proper frame. They do it all day in the true sense of this "word", but if the other side reacts, its all "whataboutism". Ridiculous.

Selenski planned the war with Russians anyway, that's a fact. He didn't care about the agreements made, he didn't care for peace negotiations and the USA pushed his regime into conflict with Russia. That's not "whataboutism", these are facts.

You can read it up in the papers of the US skewed UN organisations even, the attacks, the refugees, the non-compliance to Minsk I-II, the refusal to negotiate, the refusal of the international organisations to react to Russia's official complains etc.

Sure, the escalation of the war is horrible, but to blame it all on one side, after all these developments in the last years, is just biased propaganda. The war was inevitable, probalby the scale could be discussed, but that's it. A prolonged Donbas war wouldn't have been any better, wouldn't have brought any solution to the conflict either. Russia had to consider all options and Ukraine let them little other choice, unfortunately.

Blame it on the USA for pushing them so far and interfering in Ukrainian domestic and foreign policy up to this point, to weaponise the whole country against Russia.

And its also no "whataboutism" if someone points out what the USA do elsewhere, or not - because the Liberal hegemon argues with rules and principles, these are valid everywhere, for everyone, or they are not. There is no middle ground on this. Other states don't play the "moral judge", the USA does. Therefore they should be measured by their own standards and if doing so, they fail miserably. Therefore its all hypocracy and geopolitics, realpolitik. And the realpolitik behind this conflict is the US intention to destroy or at least seriously weaken Russia, the Russians themselves. Not just Putin, Russia. And yes, they want a regime change too.

The mentally deranged state of president Biden makes him say things he probably didn't even intend to do or haven't thought through properly:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilawKpTOvaE


Its good that Biden is in this "state of mind", at least he tells the truth in his mental condition, on what the US would like to do and how they think about other countries.
 
As for the Commonwealth and cultural spheres (...)

Nations which are stuck in this unluckly part of Europe between Russia and Germany - between the hammer and the anvil - must unite to survive.

The European Balance of Power was shaken when the old Rzeczpospolita disappeared from the map.

Our old Commonwealth, if restored, will become the third big power, between Russia and Germany.

Several small & weak countries cannot survive between Russia and Germany. Only a big strong country can survive in this unlucky part of Europe.

Of course I'm not talking about short-term survival - within our lifetime - but in centuries and millenia to come.

That's why we should follow Zelensky's advice - "together there is 90 million of us" - and restore our old Union.
 

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