David Reich Southern Arc Paper Abstract

[Jovialis]

@Stefano, What is the goodness of their fit compared to the measure used in Dodecad? I am not keen on the measurement used by Eurogenes. The ones I used for the model were taken from comparing them to many other west Eurasian samples, that I used to model Europeans. These make for the best fit specifically for Italians.

 

[Angela]

Everywhere with the spread of agriculture in the Fertile Crescent comes association with increased Anatolian farmer DNA, I don’t believe it’s a Levantine innovation. South Caucasus G2a is a remnant of this, once the farmers moved in via Shulaveri-Shomu, it’s hard to dislodge them (or any large population from the Caucasus for that matter).

Sorry, but the FIRST crop farming happened in the Levant and the hills of upper Mesopotamia. Animal husbandry took place first in the Zagros Mountains.

These are well established facts. Please use the search engine to find the relevant threads and papers.

You wouldn't be related to Olympus Mons would you? I mention it because it would be a mistake to start spamming threads with comments about Shulaveri-Shomu. As with any topic, make your point and move one.

 

[bicicleur 2]

Where did E-L618 come from? Saying "E-V13 is a BA lineage" is a tautology, by default any lineage that exists today must have an ancestor lineage in the BA. Saying "E-V13 is an IE lineage" is also a tautology because by default every lineage that was present in most of BA Europe would have been part of an IE-speaking population. Not sure what you mean by Minoans but rest assured that J2a was a big player in ancient Greece. Or is J2a an "IE lineage" as well?

E-L618 was detected along the Croatian coast amongst Cardial Ware farmers.
E-V13 was confirmed in 7 ka Cardial Ware in Catalonia, but they were probably pré-E-V13, that is E-L618.

Some of these E-L618 Cardial Ware farmers were probably the ancestors of E-V13.

 

[Angela]

Indeed, and both were mostly Anatolia_N, which is what southern Europeans are mostly made up of as well. Thus the Roman Republic, and Empire are Southern European, Mediterranean inventions. Because imo, Latins, and Etruscans indeed fall in the Mediterranean continuum, making up one side of which it is a bracket for; the other side being Minoan.

Indeed. Here I am, 75% EEF and 25% steppe.

 

[Angela]

The origin of language families cannot be solved by genetics alone since it can be misleading, but rather genetics + linguistics. As far as i know the Proto Indo-European origin must be sought on the Steppes, the common flora and fauna words for IE indicates that.

Perhaps they know something more than we do, so let's wait what they have to say, i am expecting a lot of debate regarding this issue. I hope it's not liberal politicized move since science needs to be as it is.

Depends what the flora and fauna were like thousands of years ago in the region of northern Iran which they claim was the area where Anatolian was spoken, yes?

We'll have to see all their arguments before we come to conclusions.

Also, let's remember that if they're talking about the steppe being the 2nd stage, we have to go very far back in history. CT would have nothing to do with it; much too far west.

 

[Angela]

E-L618 was detected along the Croatian coast amongst Cardial Ware farmers.
E-V13 was confirmed in 7 ka Cardial Ware in Catalonia, but they were probably pré-E-V13, that is E-L618.
Some of these E-L618 Cardial Ware farmers were probably the ancestors of E-V13.

Exactly right, and something that is consistently ignored by many internet enthusiasts.

 

[Angela]

I want to add my 2 cent to the discussion, based on what i see with g25 calcs.


Model used

GEO_CHG,0.091058,0.102568,-0.083344,-0.00323,-0.08617,0.020638,0.024911,-0.001846,-0.128236,-0.074717,-0.006333,0.023979,-0.054856,0.004404,0.026601,-0.03275,0.02386,-0.013429,-0.022249,0.034767,0.033815,-0.007048,0.006532,-0.025787,-0.002036
IRN_Ganj_Dareh_N,0.0430252,0.0664158,-0.1550722,0.0047158,-0.122669,0.0235384,0.017109,-0.0011998,-0.082546,-0.0544158,-0.0028258,-0.0016186,0.0044896,-0.0062756,0.0316498,0.0561384,-0.0054242,0.0068664,0.0136508,-0.0334162,0.00856,-0.028836,-0.0110678,-0.039331,0.0222254
Levant_Natufian_I0861,0.01935,0.135065,-0.039221,-0.135984,0.026774,-0.076137,-0.019036,-0.024691,0.100626,-0.008018,0.02858,-0.019633,0.067343,0.001651,0.022801,0.02612,-0.0103,0.006714,-0.018101,0.041395,-0.004118,-0.003215,-0.014297,-0.011206,0.011975
TUR_Barcin_N,0.1175998,0.180118,0.0035312,-0.101158,0.0510443,-0.0483875,-0.0043582,-0.0069334,0.0362287,0.0807473,0.0079718,0.0118803,-0.0234545,0.0004691,-0.0419807,-0.0101913,0.0233091,0.0019866,0.0136954,-0.0097489,-0.0142249,0.0057723,-0.0041232,-0.0031658,-0.0043437
Yamnaya_RUS_Samara,0.1252054,0.0891408,0.0430338,0.1150967,-0.0285181,0.0453663,0.0046478,-0.002513,-0.0555623,-0.0727931,0.0006676,0.0005994,-0.0030724,-0.023564,0.0363427,0.0152183,-0.0007246,-0.0015204,-0.0039106,0.0140344,-0.0036879,0.000426,0.0109278,0.0184497,-0.0043241
WHG:WHG_I1875,0.130897,0.120848,0.191577,0.194447,0.159107,0.048248,0.015746,0.040152,0.087332,0.007472,-0.016076,-0.015436,0.017839,-0.003303,0.047909,0.047069,0.007302,0.018497,-0.003268,0.057027,0.087471,0.00915,-0.048436,-0.143153,0.01449
WHG:WHG_Rochedane,0.118376,0.111708,0.178001,0.184111,0.150182,0.044623,0.010575,0.034383,0.090809,0.028064,-0.014615,-0.016186,0.013974,-0.002752,0.058767,0.069344,0.002738,0.014189,-0.015335,0.054151,0.101446,0.013231,-0.050778,-0.178579,0.019519
WHG:ITA_Grotta_Continenza_Meso,0.1225497,0.1120467,0.2008793,0.2048907,0.1728527,0.0618207,0.0160593,0.0412293,0.108602,0.0271533,-0.0193243,-0.0143373,0.0162043,-0.0086703,0.0708007,0.069035,0.0002173,0.0120353,-0.0099303,0.0637807,0.118,0.0113347,-0.0608843,-0.1971763,0.021994
WHG:ITA_Villabruna,0.121791,0.114755,0.18592,0.184111,0.156337,0.060798,0.020211,0.035998,0.092445,0.018041,-0.016239,-0.016186,0.016947,-0.010046,0.054017,0.067356,0.000782,0.005448,-0.008422,0.053526,0.100073,0.010758,-0.048313,-0.163517,0.01928
MAR_Taforalt,-0.189857,0.0814452,-0.0242866,-0.085595,0.027636,-0.0552202,-0.0705968,0.0184146,0.155397,0.003499,0.0209156,-0.0318316,0.0747168,-0.0513334,0.0711988,-0.0363032,0.0052676,-0.066106,-0.1424162,0.0389938,-0.0376836,-0.1255322,0.0730118,-0.0137606,0.0164534
SSA:Yoruba,-0.6300625,0.0625011,0.022113,0.0167079,0.0005035,0 .0124741,-0.044417,0.0477673,-0.0488813,0.0327694,0.0046205,0.0007904,0.0230561, 0.0009509,0.0125232,-0.0096067,0.0070763,0.0004491,0.006022,-0.00299,0.0015542,0.0023156,-0.0017592,-0.0004711,-0.0004246

The minoan and mycenean show and extra CHG ancestry, the steppe in mycenean ranges from 15 to 3 %


View attachment 13365





The etruscan do not seem to need an extra CHG or IRN_N aside from few outliers.


View attachment 13366
View attachment 13367




On the contrary modern italian from central italy down shows it.
View attachment 13368
View attachment 13369



I don't know if these results are right or the jovialis model is.

I'm a lady, so I won't say what I think should be done with Polako's G25.

 

[Angela]

I want to add my 2 cent to the discussion, based on what i see with g25 calcs.


Model used

GEO_CHG,0.091058,0.102568,-0.083344,-0.00323,-0.08617,0.020638,0.024911,-0.001846,-0.128236,-0.074717,-0.006333,0.023979,-0.054856,0.004404,0.026601,-0.03275,0.02386,-0.013429,-0.022249,0.034767,0.033815,-0.007048,0.006532,-0.025787,-0.002036
IRN_Ganj_Dareh_N,0.0430252,0.0664158,-0.1550722,0.0047158,-0.122669,0.0235384,0.017109,-0.0011998,-0.082546,-0.0544158,-0.0028258,-0.0016186,0.0044896,-0.0062756,0.0316498,0.0561384,-0.0054242,0.0068664,0.0136508,-0.0334162,0.00856,-0.028836,-0.0110678,-0.039331,0.0222254
Levant_Natufian_I0861,0.01935,0.135065,-0.039221,-0.135984,0.026774,-0.076137,-0.019036,-0.024691,0.100626,-0.008018,0.02858,-0.019633,0.067343,0.001651,0.022801,0.02612,-0.0103,0.006714,-0.018101,0.041395,-0.004118,-0.003215,-0.014297,-0.011206,0.011975
TUR_Barcin_N,0.1175998,0.180118,0.0035312,-0.101158,0.0510443,-0.0483875,-0.0043582,-0.0069334,0.0362287,0.0807473,0.0079718,0.0118803,-0.0234545,0.0004691,-0.0419807,-0.0101913,0.0233091,0.0019866,0.0136954,-0.0097489,-0.0142249,0.0057723,-0.0041232,-0.0031658,-0.0043437
Yamnaya_RUS_Samara,0.1252054,0.0891408,0.0430338,0.1150967,-0.0285181,0.0453663,0.0046478,-0.002513,-0.0555623,-0.0727931,0.0006676,0.0005994,-0.0030724,-0.023564,0.0363427,0.0152183,-0.0007246,-0.0015204,-0.0039106,0.0140344,-0.0036879,0.000426,0.0109278,0.0184497,-0.0043241
WHG:WHG_I1875,0.130897,0.120848,0.191577,0.194447,0.159107,0.048248,0.015746,0.040152,0.087332,0.007472,-0.016076,-0.015436,0.017839,-0.003303,0.047909,0.047069,0.007302,0.018497,-0.003268,0.057027,0.087471,0.00915,-0.048436,-0.143153,0.01449
WHG:WHG_Rochedane,0.118376,0.111708,0.178001,0.184111,0.150182,0.044623,0.010575,0.034383,0.090809,0.028064,-0.014615,-0.016186,0.013974,-0.002752,0.058767,0.069344,0.002738,0.014189,-0.015335,0.054151,0.101446,0.013231,-0.050778,-0.178579,0.019519
WHG:ITA_Grotta_Continenza_Meso,0.1225497,0.1120467,0.2008793,0.2048907,0.1728527,0.0618207,0.0160593,0.0412293,0.108602,0.0271533,-0.0193243,-0.0143373,0.0162043,-0.0086703,0.0708007,0.069035,0.0002173,0.0120353,-0.0099303,0.0637807,0.118,0.0113347,-0.0608843,-0.1971763,0.021994
WHG:ITA_Villabruna,0.121791,0.114755,0.18592,0.184111,0.156337,0.060798,0.020211,0.035998,0.092445,0.018041,-0.016239,-0.016186,0.016947,-0.010046,0.054017,0.067356,0.000782,0.005448,-0.008422,0.053526,0.100073,0.010758,-0.048313,-0.163517,0.01928
MAR_Taforalt,-0.189857,0.0814452,-0.0242866,-0.085595,0.027636,-0.0552202,-0.0705968,0.0184146,0.155397,0.003499,0.0209156,-0.0318316,0.0747168,-0.0513334,0.0711988,-0.0363032,0.0052676,-0.066106,-0.1424162,0.0389938,-0.0376836,-0.1255322,0.0730118,-0.0137606,0.0164534
SSA:Yoruba,-0.6300625,0.0625011,0.022113,0.0167079,0.0005035,0 .0124741,-0.044417,0.0477673,-0.0488813,0.0327694,0.0046205,0.0007904,0.0230561, 0.0009509,0.0125232,-0.0096067,0.0070763,0.0004491,0.006022,-0.00299,0.0015542,0.0023156,-0.0017592,-0.0004711,-0.0004246

The minoan and mycenean show and extra CHG ancestry, the steppe in mycenean ranges from 15 to 3 %


View attachment 13365





The etruscan do not seem to need an extra CHG or IRN_N aside from few outliers.


View attachment 13366
View attachment 13367




On the contrary modern italian from central italy down shows it.
View attachment 13368
View attachment 13369



I don't know if these results are right or the jovialis model is.

If it were accurate, do you think my husband (Calabresi and Campanian) would be able to live with the shame of about 20 points more "West Asian" ancestry? :sadcry:

He'd actually say at least I have no...put in the Northern European ancestry of your choice, a version of which he said before when I showed him his 23andme results.

I don't encourage him in these feelings, to be sure, but my attempts to make him less "Southern Italian centric" have been in vain. Indeed, I have to regularly defend myself from teasing that I am part French and German.

This isn't directed at you, to be sure, but it's an amazing thing that so many people just assume everyone shares their precise prejudices.

 

[Riverman]

E-L618 was detected along the Croatian coast amongst Cardial Ware farmers.
E-V13 was confirmed in 7 ka Cardial Ware in Catalonia, but they were probably pré-E-V13, that is E-L618.

Some of these E-L618 Cardial Ware farmers were probably the ancestors of E-V13.

Impresso-Cardial was most likely the original source, then we know it entered Lengyel and spread from there in different directions. Evidence comes from Michelsberger culture, which got strong ties to Lengyel, especially along the river networks, from which the samples come from (Danube-Rhine) and Tripolye-Cucuteni.

Then it gets foggy, but one of my best bets is still Lengyel/Tiszapolgar. Either late Epi-Lengyel which came under the influence of Epi-Corded groups, or Bodrogkereszt?r. Its also noteworthy what Wikipedia has to say about this culture:

The physical type of the Bodrogkereszt?r people was of the Mediterranean type, and is contrasted with the "Proto-Europoid" type prevalent on the Eurasian Steppe.

• The population of Bodrogkereszt?r culture partially survived into the Bronze age, and indirectly to the Iron Age. By utilizing the anthropological Penrose method, Bodrogkereszt?r was shown, to have a significant connection with the Bronze age Maros-Perjamos culture, and indirectly through it to the Iron Age Celts of Transdanubia, and the Bosut culture of Vojvodina.^[1][2]
• Zoffmann, Zs. K. (1997). "A contribution to the question of the biological continuity of the prehistoric populations in the eastern parts of the carpathian basin". Acta Biologica Szegediensis. 42: 157?162 ? via u-szeged.hu.
• Zoffmann, Zsuzsanna (2000). "Anthropological sketch of the prehistoric population of the Carpathian Basin". Acta Biologica Szegediensis. 44: 75?79 ? via u-szeged.hu.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bodrogkeresztúr_culture

From there onwards (Epi-Lengyel? Bodrogkereszt?r? Tripolye-Cucuteni?), under steppe and GAC influences, the Cotofeni culture developed in the East Carpathian zone.

Cotofeni -> Mak?/Livezile -> Nyirseg -> Eastern Otomani (less Epi-Corded/Kostany influences, cremating groups) -> Suciu de Sus/Lapus I, also Berkesz-Demecser (intermediate) and Piliny (pre-Kyjatice group, but also influential on Pre-G?va) -> Kyjatice, G?va, Belegis II-G?va -> Bosut-Basarabi, Psenichevo-Babadag.
That's how I think the spread of E-V13 took place, at the moment.

G?va can be considered Proto-Thracian and being the central group for the Channelled Ware horizon:

The main problem is that most of these groups did cremate, including most of Mak? and especially Nyirseg into G?va.

Even the later Thracians and Dacians - not all, but most groups, did cremate.

But yes, we have a continuous line of evidence from Impresso-Cardial onwards in the Carpatho-Balkan sphere. With Lengyel E-L618 quite obviously reached the Danube and Carpathians. The samples are there.

 

[Archetype0ne]

Where did E-L618 come from? Saying "E-V13 is a BA lineage" is a tautology, by default any lineage that exists today must have an ancestor lineage in the BA. Saying "E-V13 is an IE lineage" is also a tautology because by default every lineage that was present in most of BA Europe would have been part of an IE-speaking population. Not sure what you mean by Minoans but rest assured that J2a was a big player in ancient Greece. Or is J2a an "IE lineage" as well?

Particular J2a branches IMO do have connection to early IE, including in Myceneans(need to re-read that Lazaridis paper, since I might be miss-recalling). Others however could have been of non IE origin. So only autosomal, and wider timeframe studies such as this one can clear that up.

 

[Riverman]

Particular J2a branches IMO do have connection to early IE, including in Myceneans(need to re-read that Lazaridis paper, since I might be miss-recalling). Others however could have been of non IE origin. So only autosomal, and wider timeframe studies such as this one can clear that up.

The G?va-related Kyjatice sample BR2 was J2a, as you know, and he surely was IE with a fairly high level of steppe ancestry. How he came up there is yet another question, could be earlier or later.
https://www.yfull.com/tree/J-Y17946/

There were Southern, even Aegean influences in Otomani and Suciu de Sus. Actually in the EBA-MBA a lot was going South -> North, in the LBA-EIA things turned around, and this was more of a population movement, instead of cultural transfer (G?va, Sea Peoples etc.).

 

[peloponnesian]

Particular J2a branches IMO do have connection to early IE, including in Myceneans(need to re-read that Lazaridis paper, since I might be miss-recalling). Others however could have been of non IE origin. So only autosomal, and wider timeframe studies such as this one can clear that up.

Yeah, but we're talking semantics. Usually by IE lineages we refer to lineages that existed in the early IE sites and that had the typical steppe autosomal profile. EEF languages and "Old European" cultures ceased to exist in much of Europe fairly early so by default every farmer lineage (or, more accurately, Chalcolithic lineage) that didn't go extinct must have expanded also with IE-speakers. It does look like E-V13 had a very big founder effect in the BA and this expansion must have happened in some "Indo-Europeanised" culture in Eastern Europe that experienced demographic growth and moved around.

I've had some similar thoughts about J2a myself but we need a lot more data from Mycenaeans and also pre-Greeks to have a good idea.

 

[Archetype0ne]

Yeah, but we're talking semantics. Usually by IE lineages we refer to lineages that existed in the early IE sites and that had the typical steppe autosomal profile. EEF languages and "Old European" cultures ceased to exist in much of Europe fairly early so by default every farmer lineage (or, more accurately, Chalcolithic lineage) that didn't go extinct must have expanded also with IE-speakers. It does look like E-V13 had a very big founder effect in the BA and this expansion must have happened in some "Indo-Europeanised" culture in Eastern Europe that experienced demographic growth and moved around.

I've had some similar thoughts about J2a myself but we need a lot more data from Mycenaeans and also pre-Greeks to have a good idea.

I agree. At the most simple thought experiment for this case we see a problem of semantics.
Say if J2a was within some EEF population in the Eastern Balkans / Western Ukraine. We know that the 50-50 CHG/EHG Yamnaya had 10%+ EEF the closer to mainland Europe one got. IIRC this was in the preceding cultures. Thus the semantic problem is, does one call such 45-45-10 EHG-CHG-EEF pre-proto-Yamnaya (Cucuteni-Sredni Stog mix) Yamnaya or not. If one does then particular J2a branches are as Yamnaya as any R1b. If not then, we are splitting hair, since there is little way of knowing which exact split in particular phylogenies gave rise to particular cultures with any certainty.

Personally I lean towards the yes answer. Since if various Y-s can be called Roman irrespective to which one was at a certain location earlier, then why would the standard change, especially when looking at less certain, older cultural scenarios.

 

[Hawk]

I believe this paper will probably enlighten and bring closer to the truth about the E-V13 origin. We already have a piece of puzzle so far, but this one will bring us one step closer. I have absolutely no doubt the Early Neolithic origin is to be sought in Cardium Pottery Culture which shows Natufian/Iberomaurusian-like influences and we already have couple of E-L618 in this culture, and knowing that the 4 E-M78 Michelsberger are Cardium-Pottery migrants from Spain it's a no-brainer. The problem is Late Neolithic/Early Bronze Age of already formed E-V13 clade.

But, all in all, it will be beneficial for Balkans overall. We'll get to know core Illyrians, Thracians, Classical Greeks (the mainland ones).

 

[bicicleur 2]

When I read all this, expectations are high.
I hope the paper will be published soon.

 

[kingjohn]

When I read all this, expectations are high.
I hope the paper will be published soon.

i wish for e-v13's in our forum
that e-v13 will finally be found in mycenaean remains

 

[Riverman]

i wish for e-v13's in our forum
that e-v13 will finally be found in mycenaean remains

Rather post-Mycenaean, especially Doric Greeks and Thracians. The problem of cremation remains, for a time, but with classical Greek and Thracian samples, we will see whether they arrived before the LBA.
Mycenaean Greeks might be more R-Z2103 and J2a probably.

 

[Stefano]

@Stefano, What is the goodness of their fit compared to the measure used in Dodecad? I am not keen on the measurement used by Eurogenes. The ones I used for the model were taken from comparing them to many other west Eurasian samples, that I used to model Europeans. These make for the best fit specifically for Italians.

0.002 with g25= 2.000 with k12 so they are all around 3-4.

I'm a lady, so I won't say what I think should be done with Polako's G25.

I do not have an opinion on the creator of g25 coordinates and i don't know how good they are, but it seems that the general consensus on them is favorable.
I just see them as a tool and they seems to give coherent results. Anyway they catch the extra CHG/Iran in modern italians, so why should they fail with ancient samples, if such ancestry is present in them?

 

[Riverman]

0.002 with g25= 2.000 with k12 so they are all around 3-4.

I do not have an opinion on the creator of g25 coordinates and i don't know how good they are, but it seems that the general consensus on them is favorable.
I just see them as a tool and they seems to give coherent results. Anyway they catch the extra CHG/Iran in modern italians, so why should they fail with ancient samples, if such ancestry is present in them?

I also used proper references for myself and others, with detailed known ancestry, and it works perfectly well, better than most other tools of that kind. There are some limitations, but that's rather about overfitting and alternatives, rather than missing or distorting ancestral components altogether.

 

[Leopoldo Leone]

0.002 with g25= 2.000 with k12 so they are all around 3-4.



I do not have an opinion on the creator of g25 coordinates and i don't know how good they are, but it seems that the general consensus on them is favorable.
I just see them as a tool and they seems to give coherent results. Anyway they catch the extra CHG/Iran in modern italians, so why should they fail with ancient samples, if such ancestry is present in them?

This remark of mine is beyond the main point since official studies show higher CHG/Iran_N in modern Italians compared to the ancient ones, but talking of modern Italian samples the problem with G25 is that I am sure the "Italian" (central and south ones) samples are actually mixed Jew-Italian individuals passed off as simply Italian.