Modeling Albanians as Thracian based, extremly good fit, looking for feedback

[PaleoRevenge]

Hi folks,

This week I worked on the Vahaduo calc, and came up with a very good model for Albanians, I am looking for feedback. The issue is the model works extremely well. I tried various Balkan IA combos, but what works the best is the following.

This is what happens when I model Albanians as Thracian.


This is what happens I combine Thracian with Paeonian individuals



This are the base components:

Sargat_IA:Average,0.093477,-0.068548125,0.0658075,0.0608855,-0.049201625,-6.98750000000006E-05,0.003055125,0.004442,-0.01516025,-0.02890725,0.014899125,-0.00252875,0.008566625,-0.033236,0.002680375,0.001027625,-0.009664875,0.00121925,-0.001853875,-0.003329625,-0.009343,0.006244375,0.001802375,0.003057625,0.001 167625
MNG_Early_Xiongnu:Average,0.0668927692307692,-0.207246076923077,0.0557848461538462,0.02571576923 07692,-0.0602005384615385,-0.009375,0.00723107692307692,0.00658553846153846,-0.0122085384615385,-0.0164993846153846,-0.0166386153846154,-0.00288215384615385,-0.000903461538461539,-0.0122060769230769,0.0140104615384615,0.0009178461 53846154,-0.00948784615384615,0.00161784615384615,0.00147938 461538462,0.00503115384615384,-0.0186401538461538,-0.00195938461538462,-0.00628553846153846,0.00203923076923077,0.00205415 384615385
AZE_Caucasus_lowlands_LC:ALX002,0.097888,0.137096,-0.06939,-0.072675,-0.023697,-0.013666,0.005875,-0.003692,-0.024338,-0.00164,0.011205,-0.013338,0.012636,0.00578,-0.020765,0.030893,0.024903,0.004181,-0.000251,-0.007754,0.004617,0.015086,-0.003944,-0.015544,-0.005508
ARM_Noratus_Anc:Average,0.0944735,0.137604,-0.05638,-0.0637925,-0.0253895,-0.019941,0.0038775,-0.005192,-0.0223955,-0.0041,0.00609,0.00517,-0.006764,-0.0052985,-0.0010855,0.00305,0.009453,-0.001964,0.005594,-0.0068785,0.003993,-0.00136,0.0019105,-0.0025905,0.003353
Kura-Araxes_ARM,0.104528,0.129988,-0.065996,-0.040967,-0.050471,-0.005113,0.009165,-0.0065,-0.062005,-0.018619,0.003302,0.009691,-0.016278,0.001308,0.00509,-0.004132,0.009236,-0.001773,-0.001215,0.00148,0.004908,-0.002638,0.002301,-0.005563,-0.001936
ISR_Natufian_EpiP,0.034147,0.152329,-0.022627,-0.140506,0.042162,-0.085062,-0.016921,-0.015692,0.12476,0.019317,0.028743,-0.025327,0.085926,-0.004129,0.004886,-0.014054,-0.011213,-0.007855,-0.02074,0.023136,0.01123,0.001607,0.00912,0.003735 ,-0.003233

These are the variable components:

Thracian_&_Paeonian,0.121932875,0.1586765,0.011643 375,-0.044049125,0.03235225,-0.021265375,-0.000146875,-0.003778875,0.01076325,0.042256125,0.00253725,0.00 9067,-0.016092625,0.000911875,-0.0225975,-0.010225875,0.00722,0.00296125,0.0101345,-0.010333,-0.00963925,0.0029675,-0.002218375,0.00266575,-0.006451625
MKD_Skopje_AncDardanian,0.13032725,0.15182175,0.02 177875,-0.03076575,0.028082,-0.00934275,0.0017625,-0.00126925,0.006289,0.03845175,0.00032475,0.008729 75,-0.01393675,-0.006365,-0.01587925,0.002652,0.02001375,0.002597,0.00672475 ,-0.00062525,-0.0121035,-3.10000000000001E-05,-0.0010165,0.004609,-0.0006885
Nassius_Triballi:R6764-K13-sim,0.1177,0.1597,0.0192,-0.0279,0.0324,-0.0134,0.0011,0.0019,0.005,0.0332,0.002,0.0056,-0.0156,-0.0028,-0.0108,-0.0074,0.0091,0.002,0.0043,-0.0024,-0.0035,0.0007,-0.0001,-0.0028,-0.002
MKD_Southeast_Valandovo_Anc:Panoenian_Average,0.12 3498,0.1563915,0.0197985,-0.024225,0.029852,-0.013526,-0.0052875,-0.0064615,0.008897,0.0303425,0.0007305,0.0059945,-0.0118185,0.0056425,-0.0113325,-0.01664,-0.0086055,0.001457,0.005845,-0.016633,-0.0117295,0.0039565,0.0019105,0.005362,-0.001916
BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA:Average,0.1217906,0.1598444 ,0.0085982,-0.05168,0.0336678,-0.025881,0.001927,-0.0036462,0.01129,0.0471628,0.0024358,0.0098014,-0.0169474,0.0009636,-0.0248912,-0.0074514,0.0131166,0.0041046,0.0115894,-0.0076036,-0.0087346,0.000445,-0.0031798,0.0012288,-0.0085024
HRV_IA:Average,0.122441142857143,0.150153142857143 ,0.0394361428571429,0.00369142857142857,0.03882028 57142857,-0.00119514285714286,0.00147714285714286,0.00046142 8571428571,0.0141998571428571,0.0264242857142857,-0.00278385714285714,0.00745057142857143,-0.0107885714285714,-0.00587842857142857,-0.00354814285714286,0.000947142857142857,0.0028684 2857142857,0.00224414285714286,0.00272942857142857 ,0.00101828571428571,-0.00228171428571429,0.00286185714285714,-0.00422557142857143,-0.00227214285714286,-0.00200142857142857
ALB_Çinamak_Anc:Average,0.12475,0.1537512,0.03024 52,-0.0142766,0.0300362,-0.0074186,0.003008,0.0005078,-0.001636,0.0248934,0.0011366,0.0071936,-0.0192368,-0.0072664,-0.0093376,-0.0049058,0.0066756,0.0026096,0.0039722,-0.0091042,-0.007986,0.0025474,-0.0043382,0.0057118,-0.0064664
MKD_Southwest_Ohrid_Anc:Average,0.1227012,0.153345 ,0.0232306,-0.0133722,0.0244968,-0.0063586,-0.0016922,-0.0033692,0.0006136,0.0272624,0.0058134,0.0063242,-0.0168878,-0.0066334,-0.0106676,-0.0031822,0.0011472,0.0044846,0.007944,-0.0095546,-0.0135512,0.0084826,-0.0017008,0.009688,-0.0026104

Methodology, some of the averages are straight forward, the averages that are not straight forward are made of the following.

Paeonian
MKD_Southeast_Valandovo_Anc:I10390
MKD_Southeast_Valandovo_Anc:I10391


Dardanian
MKD_Southeast_Valandovo_Anc:I10383_West_Dardanian
Croatia_Zadar_Poliklinika:R3746___East_Dardanian
MKD_Skopje_Anc:I10379
MKD_Skopje_Anc:I10381


Thracian
BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA:I20180
BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA:I20181
BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA:I20183
BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA:I20185
BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA:I20186
MKD_Vardar_Gradsko_Anc:I7233



Thracian-Paeonian
BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA:I20180
BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA:I20181
BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA:I20183
BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA:I20185
BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA:I20186
MKD_Vardar_Gradsko_Anc:I7233
MKD_Southeast_Valandovo_Anc:I10390
MKD_Southeast_Valandovo_Anc:I10391


HRV
HRV_IA:I5723
HRV_IA:I5724
HRV_IA:I5725
HRV_IA:I5726
HRV_IA:I5727
HRV_IA:I5728
HRV_IA:I5729


Sargat IA
Sargat_IA:BGD002
Sargat_IA:BIY003
Sargat_IA:BIY007
Sargat_IA:BIY008
Sargat_IA:BIY009
Sargat_IA:SHD001
Sargat_IA:SMV001
Sargat_IA:SMV002


Xionfnu
MNG_Early_Xiongnu_rest:JAG001
MNG_Early_Xiongnu_rest:SKT002
MNG_Early_Xiongnu_rest:SKT004
MNG_Early_Xiongnu_rest:SKT005
MNG_Early_Xiongnu_rest:SKT006
MNG_Early_Xiongnu_rest:SKT012
MNG_Early_Xiongnu_SKT007:SKT007
MNG_Early_Xiongnu_west:AST001
MNG_Early_Xiongnu_west:SKT001
MNG_Early_Xiongnu_west:SKT003
MNG_Early_Xiongnu_west:SKT008
MNG_Early_Xiongnu_west:SKT009
MNG_Early_Xiongnu_west:SKT010

Arm Noratus
ARM_Noratus_Anc:I19322
ARM_Noratus_Anc:I19327


I am not aware of anyone being able to get such a tight fit using ancient components only. I would appreciate any feedback.

[enter_tain]

There are 0 academics in 2022 that are arguing for a "Thracian origin" of Albanian. They have nothing to do with Albanians genetically or linguistically.

Keep going with G25 models though and mixing Kura Axes with Baltics to get Albanians or whatever the hell you're doing.

[Archetype0ne]

Trash tier asynchronic model. When even people like Matzinger categorically exclude Thracian from the discourse, only you could think you did something with those models.

[PaleoRevenge]

Trash tier asynchronic model. When even people like Matzinger categorically exclude Thracian from the discourse, only you could think you did something with those models.

Is this your model?

Target: Albanian
Distance: 1.4868% / 0.01486775
57.8 Albania_IA/Early_Medieval
26.6 Dalmatia_early_medieval
14.8 TUR_Marmara_Ilıpınar_Byz3
0.8 KAZ_Hun-Sarmatian

and also, take your meds after eating your salad (with Greek or Bulgarian feta, maybe both)

How many years you been doing this? My ingredients are simple, they are basic, your models are made from highly mixed individuals and a absurd timeline(Dalmatia mdv, Albania IA, accidental Ohrid MKD, Alb mdv, you might as well throw the entire human genome into that nonsense soup. And it still fails.

Since IA only two major events occured, Slavic input and ME input. You cannot isolate MENA input to one population it is impossible. Not only has the Middle East always been highly mixed, but the individuals that brought this hodge podge MENA ancestry, were not a a cultural horizon, one people, they were urban cosmopolitan folk who were moving and migrating through different Roman cities and mixing as they went. They can't be pinned down, so I have to use MENA basal components to capture their impact.

Sargat is Steppe Uralic, I carefully selected them to avoid any IE IA crossover. Same thing for Xioungu, they represent Turkic-Mongol steppe component.

It's a damn impressive model. I prefer judgement and feedback from people like Jovalis and Ecuapor who have no emotional attachment and pettiness.

[PaleoRevenge]

An update to the basal components after receiving criticism and feedback in another forum. The results do not change, sometimes they even slightly improve.

Baltic_EST_BA,0.1321485,0.1213556,0.0992205,0.1116 62,0.051671,0.040746,0.0158398,0.0204684,-0.0029042,-0.050607,0.0009094,-0.0182389,0.0359462,0.0400344,-0.0180239,0.0018297,0.0103654,-0.000684,-0.0013952,0.0046272,-0.0024957,-0.0062692,0.0106487,-0.017388,0.002359
Sargat_IA:Average,0.093477,-0.068548125,0.0658075,0.0608855,-0.049201625,-6.98750000000006E-05,0.003055125,0.004442,-0.01516025,-0.02890725,0.014899125,-0.00252875,0.008566625,-0.033236,0.002680375,0.001027625,-0.009664875,0.00121925,-0.001853875,-0.003329625,-0.009343,0.006244375,0.001802375,0.003057625,0.001 167625
MNG_Early_Xiongnu:Average,0.0668927692307692,-0.207246076923077,0.0557848461538462,0.02571576923 07692,-0.0602005384615385,-0.009375,0.00723107692307692,0.00658553846153846,-0.0122085384615385,-0.0164993846153846,-0.0166386153846154,-0.00288215384615385,-0.000903461538461539,-0.0122060769230769,0.0140104615384615,0.0009178461 53846154,-0.00948784615384615,0.00161784615384615,0.00147938 461538462,0.00503115384615384,-0.0186401538461538,-0.00195938461538462,-0.00628553846153846,0.00203923076923077,0.00205415 384615385
GRC_Marathon_Rom:I7833,0.104717,0.146236,-0.02753,-0.065569,-0.000308,-0.023985,0.00188,-0.004846,-0.003068,0.005467,0.014615,0.001349,0.001338,0.001 514,-0.009772,0.012066,0.024773,-0.008235,0.008296,-0.001751,-0.002745,-0.003462,0.003328,0.000361,-0.003473
Croatia_Zadar_Relja:R3742___AD_177___Coverage_46.7 4%,0.108132,0.137096,-0.03017,-0.040375,-0.008925,-0.015618,-0.002585,-0.008307,-0.019634,0.003098,0.001461,0.007643,0.00223,0.0026 15,-0.009093,-0.009016,-0.002217,-0.000253,0.00088,-0.001,0.001872,-0.000742,-0.002095,0.003012,-0.000958

[Hawk]

I am more interested into a bit more generalized concept.

Like, Western Balkans, Central Balkans and Eastern Balkans, you may include Greeks as reference for Southern Balkans, and the Early Slav sample for Slavic admixture. Also, Armenian LBA/IA for Anatolian pull.

I couldn't understand your model, what is Sargat_IA? Also, can you fully post your model as a whole?

[Hawk]

Ok, i understand now a bit, but it looks like the components are too specific. These are mine.

Target: Hawk_scaled Distance: 1.9428% / 0.01942807
22.0	GRC_Marathon_Rom
20.2	MKD_Skopje_AncDardanian
19.8	ALB_Çinamak_Anc
13.2	Baltic_EST_BA
9.8	MKD_Southeast_Valandovo_Anc
8.0	Thracian_&_Paeonian
5.4	MKD_Southwest_Ohrid_Anc
1.6	Croatia_Zadar_Relja

Target: Hawk_scaled Distance: 1.9460% / 0.01945966 | ADC: 0.25x RC
24.0	MKD_Skopje_AncDardanian
23.0	GRC_Marathon_Rom
21.8	ALB_Çinamak_Anc
15.8	MKD_Southeast_Valandovo_Anc
12.4	Baltic_EST_BA
2.2	MKD_Southwest_Ohrid_Anc
0.8	Croatia_Zadar_Relja

Target: Hawk_scaled Distance: 2.0025% / 0.02002506 | ADC: 0.5x RC
24.6	ALB_Çinamak_Anc
24.2	GRC_Marathon_Rom
22.4	MKD_Skopje_AncDardanian
17.0	MKD_Southwest_Ohrid_Anc
11.8	Baltic_EST_BA

If i reduce to 4 populations with .25 distance

Target: Hawk_scaled Distance: 2.0065% / 0.02006530 | R4P | ADC: 0.25x RC
36.6	MKD_Skopje_AncDardanian
26.0	MKD_Southeast_Valandovo_Anc
23.2	GRC_Marathon_Rom
14.2	Baltic_EST_BA

4 populations .5 distance

Target: Hawk_scaled Distance: 2.0065% / 0.02006530 | R4P | ADC: 0.5x RC
36.6	MKD_Skopje_AncDardanian
26.0	MKD_Southeast_Valandovo_Anc
23.2	GRC_Marathon_Rom
14.2	Baltic_EST_BA

For me, the perception is that i prefer Central_Balkans/Inland Balkans and something Southern Illyrian-like on top of which also comes perhaps Slavic admixture. Inland/Central Balkans is where i envision Proto-Albanoids to have originated from.

[PaleoRevenge]

I am more interested into a bit more generalized concept.

Like, Western Balkans, Central Balkans and Eastern Balkans, you may include Greeks as reference for Southern Balkans, and the Early Slav sample for Slavic admixture. Also, Armenian LBA/IA for Anatolian pull.

I couldn't understand your model, what is Sargat_IA? Also, can you fully post your model as a whole?

Sargat(search Sargat culture) represents Uralic component that would came with Sarmatians, and later Turkic khaganates. The Asian component is not entirely Turkic-Mongolian, it also includes Uralic. The model is trying to get best fit by using primordial components, I think using overlapping populations is baloney. Because in theory, if you have the right ingredients the formula for Alb should be identified.

My opinion is this, from a detective point of view, to chase down the parent population, you have to use my original coordinates(primordial base signals), and try various IA clusters as variables, Thracian vs Dardanian vs Illyrian, one by one to identify the daddy. The top pick in the public data set is Thracian, for Kukes post-mdv it is Dardanian, with Thracian a close 2nd. Cinamak is noticeably behind. Which should not be if we are to take the continuity argument at face value, because Cinamak and Kukes are from the exact same local, Cinamak should pop as the father of Kukes.

After all Bruzmi swears I3834 is legit, a direct heir of MKD Ohrid.

[PaleoRevenge]

Hawk I think you are Illyrian shifted, on one on one basis, I think Dardanian cluster best fits you, so try it. From experience, only Thracian, Dardanian and Cinamak are at play, and maybe Nasius(though it's poor average of only one sample) The rest are not even in the game. Feel free to send me your coordinates so I can make it part of my Alb average which now stands at 20 individuals.

[PaleoRevenge]

Hawk as discussed in the main thread, I strongly suspect MKD SE behaves as proxy for altered south Illyrian.

[PaleoRevenge]

I am more interested into a bit more generalized concept.

Like, Western Balkans, Central Balkans and Eastern Balkans, you may include Greeks as reference for Southern Balkans, and the Early Slav sample for Slavic admixture. Also, Armenian LBA/IA for Anatolian pull.

I couldn't understand your model, what is Sargat_IA? Also, can you fully post your model as a whole?

My instinct is to approach differently, first find the possible source. As of now the model is strongly attracted to a Thracian primary source and a southern western source as a secondary component.

[Excine]

My instinct is to approach differently, first find the possible source. As of now the model is strongly attracted to a Thracian primary source and a southern western source as a secondary component.

PaleoRevenge created the model just because he wanted to show in a model that Albanian can score as Thracians. The model wasn't created out of any scientific interest and doesn't follow any rule. In fact, it models as Thracian just about anyone who is southern enough and doesn't have too much east Med admixture:

from Greeks from Arcadia with a huge overfit:
Target: GreekArcadia
Distance: 0.6885% / 0.00688485
38.0 Thracian&_Paeonian
21.2 Croatia_Zadar_Relja
15.6 GRC_Marathon_Rom
12.6 Baltic_EST_BA
11.6 MKD_Southeast_Valandovo_Anc
1.0 MNG_Early_Xiongnu

...to even French Corsicans as 25% Thracian and ... 25% "Triballi" with an excellent fit (<1.5%):

Target: French_Corsica
Distance: 1.3606% / 0.01360615
46.2 HRVIA
25.4 Thracian&_Paeonian
20.6 Nassius_Triballi
7.6 GRC_Marathon_Rom
0.2 MNG_Early_Xiongnu


Apparently everyone is Thracian. The spam must stop. It's actively disruptive.

[PaleoRevenge]

PaleoRevenge created the model just because he wanted to show in a model that Albanian can score as Thracians. The model wasn't created out of any scientific interest and doesn't follow any rule. In fact, it models as Thracian just about anyone who is southern enough and doesn't have too much east Med admixture:

from Greeks from Arcadia with a huge overfit:
Target: GreekArcadia
Distance: 0.6885% / 0.00688485
38.0 Thracian&_Paeonian
21.2 Croatia_Zadar_Relja
15.6 GRC_Marathon_Rom
12.6 Baltic_EST_BA
11.6 MKD_Southeast_Valandovo_Anc
1.0 MNG_Early_Xiongnu

...to even French Corsicans as 25% Thracian and ... 25% "Triballi" with an excellent fit (<1.5%):

Target: French_Corsica
Distance: 1.3606% / 0.01360615
46.2 HRVIA
25.4 Thracian&_Paeonian
20.6 Nassius_Triballi
7.6 GRC_Marathon_Rom
0.2 MNG_Early_Xiongnu


Apparently everyone is Thracian. The spam must stop. It's actively disruptive.

You are stuffing the calc with 3 Balkan IA populations, try it 1 and see if you can make anything comparable to Alb-Thracian. Don't be dishonest.

[ihype02]

Albanians obviously have significant non-Illyrian ancestry associated with E-V13. Percentages are up for discussion.

However, those, models are obviously subjective and not very meaningful.

[Bergin]

my 2 cents:
depending if you agree or not with the Gargantuan IBD of Albanians follwing the fall of the Roman empire, but for the moment that is the only available data.

if you agree, than a near exctintion event happened and only a small fraction of the population survived and repopulated the land. we dont know who died and who survived, meaning that the ratios of Y chromosomes before and after might not be the same at all. so i would use the actual distribution in albania as an proxy for the elder ones.
Actual albanians are not a continuation of neither Thracians or Illyrians because that near exctintion event took most of the genetic variability with it. makes sense also from a natural prospective, there is variety to improve the chances od survival. Illyrian and Thracians were unable to survive as a whole, probably just the fraction better adapted to extreme mountainous terrains survived. The cities, the farms and maritime attributes were lost to eternal oblivion.

positive note from a borrowed proverb:
what does not kill you makes you stronger. and if it kills you, it makes your mother stronger.

[PaleoRevenge]

Bergin, nothing is settled yet, this is only preliminary data. But the point is from a geographical point of view, we have a cluster from Skopje, one from Cinamak, MKD SW, MKD SE, and Croatia. The top picks are Thracian and Skopje. And let me put a big emphasis, that this is south-east Thracian. There are other Thracian related populations out there that we have as of now zero data. Of interest based on the Skopje read is the Thracian or Thracian-mixed populations east of Shkupi. That's the only read I'm making it out of the calculator results. I don't believe we are Kapitan Andreevo.

BTW If you are Noman from Anthro, I saved your coordinates and you score as I suspected, central Albanians and South Albanians are Thracian heavy. Northern Ghegs(on boths sides of black and white Drin) are Dardanian shifted. To me this means Kruja-Komani genetics = Dardanian cluster.

From a genetic point of view, northern Ghegs have ancestral rights to Kosovo. The truth is never bad or evil and should be always sought.


And I agree, it is true, we barely survived, I think the bottle neck happened during Roman time not during barbarians invasions, which is when we actually began to grow. Written material on the so called late Bessi say they were employed as guardian of the mountain passes. From a behavioral point of view, they behaved like our known ancestors during the Ottoman times. I say the so called Bessi, because they clearly could not have been identical to the classical Bessi, but a derivative population that merged with a R1b-Z2103 companion.

[Bergin]

Bergin, nothing is settled yet, this is only preliminary data. But the point is from a geographical point of view, we have a cluster from Skopje, one from Cinamak, MKD SW, MKD SE, and Croatia. The top picks are Thracian and Skopje. And let me put a big emphasis, that this is south-east Thracian. There are other Thracian related populations out there that we have as of now zero data. Of interest based on the Skopje read is the Thracian or Thracian-mixed populations east of Shkupi. That's the only read I'm making it out of the calculator results. I don't believe we are Kapitan Andreevo.

BTW If you are Noman from Anthro, I saved your coordinates and you score as I suspected, central Albanians and South Albanians are Thracian heavy. Northern Ghegs(on boths sides of black and white Drin) are Dardanian shifted. To me this means Kruja-Komani genetics = Dardanian cluster.

From a genetic point of view, northern Ghegs have ancestral rights to Kosovo. The truth is never bad or evil and should be always sought.


And I agree, it is true, we barely survived, I think the bottle neck happened during Roman time not during barbarians invasions, which is when we actually began to grow. Written material on the so called late Bessi say they were employed as guardian of the mountain passes. From a behavioral point of view, they behaved like our known ancestors during the Ottoman times. I say the so called Bessi, because they clearly could not have been identical to the classical Bessi, but a derivative population that merged with a R1b-Z2103 companion.

i never went into Anthroogenica, already this one is quite enough.
i am gegh (miredite & shkoder) from my paternal side and tosk (libohove & leskovik) from my maternal side. i generally plot like east shifted tuscan. thessalia and bulgaria are next closest. from ancient ones i do have good traits with ancient albanian, i think i threw the wahadoo results somewhere in the southern arc thread. my closest though is some goth or longobard Slozad37 from the Amorim paper 🤔.

i clearly do think we do have thracian DNA and also Illyrian, and some Slavic too. the exact proportions are not easy to grasp or prove. honestly Croatia, MNE IA and C.Andreevo are not so far genetically, especially if you consider their variability. statistically speaking you can fit albanians with 20 combinations each having an acceptable probability. we cannot choose one of those because they are all valid. some cultural, historical, linguistical info will be neccessary to separate the various solutions.
was reading about the female illyrian tatoos, they were reported in Albania as late as the 20century.

i am courious, what do you think is the thracian component in Bulgaria? i would go for more than 50%

[PaleoRevenge]

Bergin, go on https://vahaduo.github.io/vahaduo/

On the source section, enter the following coordinates(see below), On Target tab, you will enter your G25, on the Multi tab, you simply press run. And you will see your personal results and how you score.

MKD_Skopje_Ancardanian,0.13032725,0.15182175,0.02177875,-0.03076575,0.028082,-0.00934275,0.0017625,-0.00126925,0.006289,0.03845175,0.00032475,0.008729 75,-0.01393675,-0.006365,-0.01587925,0.002652,0.02001375,0.002597,0.00672475 ,-0.00062525,-0.0121035,-3.10000000000001E-05,-0.0010165,0.004609,-0.0006885
BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA:Average,0.1217906,0.1598444 ,0.0085982,-0.05168,0.0336678,-0.025881,0.001927,-0.0036462,0.01129,0.0471628,0.0024358,0.0098014,-0.0169474,0.0009636,-0.0248912,-0.0074514,0.0131166,0.0041046,0.0115894,-0.0076036,-0.0087346,0.000445,-0.0031798,0.0012288,-0.0085024
Baltic_EST_BA,0.1321485,0.1213556,0.0992205,0.1116 62,0.051671,0.040746,0.0158398,0.0204684,-0.0029042,-0.050607,0.0009094,-0.0182389,0.0359462,0.0400344,-0.0180239,0.0018297,0.0103654,-0.000684,-0.0013952,0.0046272,-0.0024957,-0.0062692,0.0106487,-0.017388,0.002359
Sargat_IA:Average,0.093477,-0.068548125,0.0658075,0.0608855,-0.049201625,-6.98750000000006E-05,0.003055125,0.004442,-0.01516025,-0.02890725,0.014899125,-0.00252875,0.008566625,-0.033236,0.002680375,0.001027625,-0.009664875,0.00121925,-0.001853875,-0.003329625,-0.009343,0.006244375,0.001802375,0.003057625,0.001 167625
MNG_Early_Xiongnu:Average,0.0668927692307692,-0.207246076923077,0.0557848461538462,0.02571576923 07692,-0.0602005384615385,-0.009375,0.00723107692307692,0.00658553846153846,-0.0122085384615385,-0.0164993846153846,-0.0166386153846154,-0.00288215384615385,-0.000903461538461539,-0.0122060769230769,0.0140104615384615,0.0009178461 53846154,-0.00948784615384615,0.00161784615384615,0.00147938 461538462,0.00503115384615384,-0.0186401538461538,-0.00195938461538462,-0.00628553846153846,0.00203923076923077,0.00205415 384615385
IRN_Hasanlu_IA&BA:Average,0.0949608571428571,0.126 070714285714,-0.0649725714285714,-0.0443432857142857,-0.0409744285714286,-0.00844628571428571,0.00688228571428571,-0.00458228571428571,-0.0376322857142857,-0.0118451428571429,0.00605485714285714,6.428571428 57142E-05,0.000977,-0.00359785714285714,0.000853,0.00746271428571429,-0.000707857142857143,0.00356528571428571,0.0030168 5714285714,-0.00394842857142857,0.00180042857142857,-0.00439857142857143,-0.00508828571428571,-0.00719542857142857,0.00138571428571429
Levant_PPNB:Average,0.0774,0.165192666666667,-0.0314266666666667,-0.139752333333333,0.035699,-0.063215,-0.0110453333333333,-0.012999,0.0681746666666667,0.0413676666666667,0.0 197033333333333,-0.014287,0.0312683333333333,-0.00197266666666667,-0.0285013333333333,0.009016,0.0160803333333333,-0.00135133333333333,-0.00439966666666667,0.019926,-0.00391,0.008491,-0.00209533333333333,-0.00397633333333333,-0.006267
AZE_Caucasus_lowlands_LC:ALX002,0.097888,0.137096,-0.06939,-0.072675,-0.023697,-0.013666,0.005875,-0.003692,-0.024338,-0.00164,0.011205,-0.013338,0.012636,0.00578,-0.020765,0.030893,0.024903,0.004181,-0.000251,-0.007754,0.004617,0.015086,-0.003944,-0.015544,-0.005508
ARM_Noratus_Anc:Average,0.0944735,0.137604,-0.05638,-0.0637925,-0.0253895,-0.019941,0.0038775,-0.005192,-0.0223955,-0.0041,0.00609,0.00517,-0.006764,-0.0052985,-0.0010855,0.00305,0.009453,-0.001964,0.005594,-0.0068785,0.003993,-0.00136,0.0019105,-0.0025905,0.003353
Kura-Araxes_ARM,0.104528,0.129988,-0.065996,-0.040967,-0.050471,-0.005113,0.009165,-0.0065,-0.062005,-0.018619,0.003302,0.009691,-0.016278,0.001308,0.00509,-0.004132,0.009236,-0.001773,-0.001215,0.00148,0.004908,-0.002638,0.002301,-0.005563,-0.001936
ISR_Natufian_EpiP,0.034147,0.152329,-0.022627,-0.140506,0.042162,-0.085062,-0.016921,-0.015692,0.12476,0.019317,0.028743,-0.025327,0.085926,-0.004129,0.004886,-0.014054,-0.011213,-0.007855,-0.02074,0.023136,0.01123,0.001607,0.00912,0.003735 ,-0.003233

Edit: I removed Kara-Axes coordinates, they interfere with Balkan IA reads.

[Bergin]

i think i had the dodecad ones, like 12 or 13 components

[PaleoRevenge]

i think i had the dodecad ones, like 12 or 13 components

Unfortunately I am new to this. But when I first started playing with Vahaduo, I too was comparing the Dodecad 13 values, that was my initiation, but they are not as precise as G25, so I have abandoned using them, they even give incorrect reads, by that I mean some population that showed relationship to MNE BA, would switch to HRV BA when G25 was used, they are simply meant to be used in a general basic way.
If you are curious, you will need to get your results converted to G25, I don't know any of this process, I am sure someone like Hawk can direct to the right place. I'm just a guy.

[Bergin]

i also wasted some time on this things and .... it can become addictive, so no more (for 2022 at least)

[PaleoRevenge]

i am courious, what do you think is the thracian component in Bulgaria? i would go for more than 50%

Everything is pointing to the so called Bessi culture horizon. An actual people in late Roman rule, having their own culture horizon while everyone else because a Roman or Greek speaking Roman citizen.




https://twitter.com/albhistory/statu...24230337118208


For me, it's impossible to brush this off. Because for a population to survive the Slavic invasion, you need a population that has a tribal structure and some form of military organization to resist them. Not some soyboys speaking Roman(not even knowing their own ancestral language) with no military structure of their own, highly dependent on imperial troops for protection.

Also, the E-V13 and R1b-Z2103 argument, the vahauduo readings, the strange toponyms in western Bulgaria (Spatovo, Mazarachevo, Musachevo, Mataraz, Burrel valley, Lyanlintsi) which have correspondence to early Albanian tribes: Shpata, Mazareku, Muzaka, Mataranga, Lala....

Johane has made his linguistic arguments. I am person that hates mental gymnastics, if you have to do mental gymnastics to explain Illyrian, it's a dead end theory because all you are really doing is making excuses, why this and that do not add up. Vs looking for direct links, and simply accepting them as yes or no.

[Excine]

The Bessi were a Thracian people have nothing to do with Albanians, linguistically or genetically. There are countless studies which have rejected any such idea. The Bessi had become Greek-speaking and many were living in Dobrudja, Romania in late antiquity. Of course, they were part of the Roman Empire and served as soldiers and sailors. They were not an isolated people. Paleo-Revenge really has 0 knowledge about what he's writing and is just making up stuff on the go.

The notion of medieval Vlach, Turkish and Albanian toponyms in Bulgaria seems to be completely ignored by this person. Just for Mazarachevo:

There are two explanations for the name of the village. According to one, it originates from the Turkish words "mezar" (grave) and "agaç" (tree), i.e. "tree where there is a grave", according to the other - from the Romanian loanword "mazara" (pea, chickpea), i.e. a place where peas, chickpeas are grown.

Spatovo is another derivation from Greek spathi or Latin spatha and it has nothing to do with Albanian. If it was taken from Albanian it would have been shpatovo. This person is so out of touch with all reality that he doesn't understand even fundamental ideas about the Albanian language.

For those who don't know: Paleo-Revenge is not an ethnic Albanian and has nothing to do with Albanians. This person is here to spread just one specific propaganda:

[PaleoRevenge]

Albanians obviously have significant non-Illyrian ancestry associated with E-V13. Percentages are up for discussion.

However, those, models are obviously subjective and not very meaningful.

I took all the Roman Croatia samples and Roman Serbia, irrespective if they had Germanic, Celtic or full blown MENA. I averaged them all as one giant soup, to test it as a pan-Balkan model. My argument, the locals got mixed with everything that was present and walking on two legs. So why not test it out.









This is my take,

1) Balkan Slav paleo-Balkan component did not come from pure Balkan IA genetics, but from MENA shifted locals.
2) Albanian G25 average really wants a pure Balkan IA component, this makes sense since Albanian survived Romanization, and it could not have done so linguistically by not surviving genetically. The best yielding(fit) model is Thracian. The Slavic component is also very realistic with the Thracian model, and straight up laughable with any other Balkan IA as a parent population.
3) Border was right to assign autosomal clusters with haplogroup association. Because MKD SE really seems to be MKD cosmopolitan genetics and not MKD tribal genetics.

[enter_tain]

Albanians obviously have significant non-Illyrian ancestry associated with E-V13. Percentages are up for discussion.
However, those, models are obviously subjective and not very meaningful.

The paper's authors clearly pointed out that Albanian's autosomal DNA has changed very little since MBA. If you want to delude yourself go ahead.

The only 2 noticeable inputs are Roman Imperial East Med and Slavic. There's no other autosomal signatures in modern Albanians.

Alb_Cinamak -> Alb_Medival = Extra East Med

Alb_Medieval -> Modern Albanian = Extra Slavic