America’s Decline Will Upend Lives

Jovialis

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“Right now, money and credit and how it’s behaving are affecting the financial markets, it’s affecting inflation,” says Dalio in an interview with Forbes as U.S. inflation has spiked to its highest rate in over 30 years.

America’s domestic issues and decline as the world’s leading superpower are more than simply a matter for debate to Dalio. They underpin the core thesis of his latest book, The Changing World Order: How and Why Nations Succeed and Fail, that comes out on November 30th. In it, he builds the case that the confluence of rising U.S. debt and income disparities, along with America’s diminished influence, has put the country at risk of not just economic hardship but war. Specifically, he points to growing debt and near-zero interest rates that have led to a massive printing of money ($16 trillion of debt at negative interest rates this year, by Dalio’s estimates), increased conflict and polarization due to widening wealth gaps and China’s increased ability to challenge U.S. hegemony on the world stage.

Dalio believes there’s a 30% chance that the U.S. will enter into a major “civil-war-type” conflict within the next five years. While other countries face similar challenges, America looks especially vulnerable. “It’s very important that we deal with this now,” he says. “We can have a type of civil war or international war based on how we are behaving with each other and our financial conditions.” What’s more, the U.S. is not alone in facing this dire scenario.

“It’s very important that we deal with this now. We can have a type of civil war or international war based on how we are behaving with each other and our financial conditions.”

Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater Associates
Dalio has built his business and net worth, which Forbes estimates at roughly $20 billion, on figuring out where the world is going and designing investment strategies to profit from it. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson describes him as a “big thinker and brilliant academic disguised as an investment manager.” Moreover, Paulson adds, Dalio’s assessment of macroeconomic risks and strategies is often right. He famously made money during the 1987 stock market crash and predicted the 2008 financial crisis, which enabled his fund to outperform during that crash, too.

What’s different now is not just the scope of the problem but Dalio’s ability to amplify it. Instead of writing up his views on the global business landscape for an audience of clients who’ve bought into his fund and stand to profit from his investment strategy, Dalio is sharing them with the wider world. Thanks to his bestselling 2017 book Principles, Dalio has become something of a celebrity and cult hero to the millions of readers drawn to his leadership philosophy of “radical transparency.” As a result, Dalio’s new book could attract an audience far bigger than the usual fans of his macroeconomic missives.

Ray Dalio Says America’s Decline Will Upend Lives, Not Just Portfolios—The Billionaire Investor Paints A Dire Scenario In His New Book (forbes.com)
 
"increased conflict and polarization due to widening wealth gaps and China’s increased ability to challenge U.S. hegemony on the world stage."

It is more than just that, it is a matter of political beliefs, and racial identity. I can't imagine his book being very bold or truthful if he is ignoring those factors.
 

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