Politics Brexit: not inevitable

[Maleth]

I agree. Unless the northern Irish have changed a very great deal very recently they're not going to want to disappear into a Catholic Ireland even if it's not so very Catholic anymore.

Religion is just a pretext for many political situations mainly driven by economic preference. No one goes round fighting and killing to have the right to pray in front of a picture of the virgin Mary anymore. Once an Irish always an Irish .

 

[Power77]

That has nothing to do with the EU. Those immigrants are a result of the Empire pre EU accession. Most of the Recent immigration was mostly from EU Countries with the largest being from Poland and India has got much a bigger share then Pakistan

Perhaps, but that still doesn't change the fact that London (1) is the most Muslim city in Britain, (2) has a Muslim mayor, and (3) is the least ethnically English part of England. In other words, London fits all the "requirements" for being a pro-Remain area IN ENGLAND (because Scotland and Northern Ireland, as this referendum has shown, are DIFFERENT cases with DIFFERENT interests from the rest of Britain).

 

[Maciamo]

Maciamo just for your knowledge, my G grand father is English from Surrey (that does not mean much because I do not remember him) Malta was a colony under British rule to a time I can recall in my childhood. My Grand mother lived the last 20 years of her life in London, both my brothers are married to English women (one of them returned to retire in Malta) and all their siblings are married to English people too. Myself I worked in London for 5 years, Besides I have visited England some 14 times. My work locally gets me regularly in contact with British people (not only English) so Im not that unfamiliar.

Good to know. But still it would seem that it does not affect you directly whether the UK leaves the EU or not. What would you change for you personally?

 

[Maciamo]

Perhaps, but that still doesn't change the fact that London (1) is the most Muslim city in Britain, (2) has a Muslim mayor, and (3) is the least ethnically English part of England. In other words, London fits all the "requirements" for being a pro-Remain area IN ENGLAND (because Scotland and Northern Ireland, as this referendum has shown, are DIFFERENT cases with DIFFERENT interests from the rest of Britain).

That is factually not true. Slough in Berkshire and Leicester are the least ethnically English city in England, with only 34% of White British in Slough and 45% in Leicester.

The highest percentages of Muslims are in Blackburn (28%), Bradford (25%, peaking at 51% in Bradford West), Luton (24.5%), Slough (24%), Birmingham (22%) and Leicester (19%), all well ahead of London (12%).

 

[Sile]

I am disappointed by some of the reactions here (nordicwarrior, Sile, Aaron1981, Maleth, Yetos), but it is not surprising from people who aren't British, haven't lived in Britain and do not have any personal tie to the country. I should have mentioned from the start where I stand personally and emotionally. I am Belgian, but I have studied and lived in England and still spend about a third of my time in the country. I have family and friends in England. I have followed the Brexit debate attentively for the last few months, most of the time from England itself, and I am as flabbergasted as most Londoners and most of the political class by the results of the referendum, especially when all opinion polls had the Remain camp winner.

I started this website 12 years ago as a travel guide to England and Belgium. I personally feel more British than Belgian and have considered in the past adopting British citizenship. I didn't because as an EU citizen that wouldn't change much. I was happy dividing my time between England and Belgium. Now, if the UK or just England and Wales are to leave the EU, it would change everything and that would make me reconsider my whole life and my future.

More importantly, I don't think that the EU can survive in the long-term without Britain. Even if it did, it wouldn't be the European Union as I have always known it. I think that the closest analogy for an American to understand how it would feel would be if the states of New England and New York were to declare their independence from the rest of the USA. Surely the USA would survive, but it wouldn't be the same country anymore, for ever.

Just like New York in the US, London is Europe's largest city, its financial capital, its most cosmopolitan city, and in my eyes also its cultural capital (I know many southern Europeans might disagree, but that's how most northern Europeans see it). The EU without London is no better than the US without New York.

Additionally English is one of the three working languages of the EU (along with French and German), and the only real lingua franca between Europeans, including in the EU neighbourhood in Brussels. It would feel very odd for EU workers from now on to discuss in English if England isn't part of the EU anymore. It would be a daily reminder of that tragic Brexit.

It's not just politicians who have warned that Brexit would be terrible for the British economy. All serious newspapers and news sites, from the Economist to the Financial Times, and from the BBC to the Guardian, all agreed on this. It would be a major blow to British scientific research, which produces 6.9% of global scientific output and represent a third of all of the EU's scientific researchers.

If the UK leaves the EU without joining Schengen, it would be catastrophic for the 3 million Europeans living in the UK and 1.3 million Britons living in the EU. Most might be force to leave the place where they have made their life, leaving behind their house, friends, country of adoption... I can't imagine such a scenario.

Leaving the EU will affect th daily life of British citizens in many more ways, as explained here by Mashable and the Guardian, for example. The worst would be the property crash that will ensue if the 3m EU citizens in the UK are forced to leave. This will effectively wipe out a lot of money directly out of British people's pockets (home valuation). The financial sector in London, the heart of the British economy is expected to drop by about 10%. The simultaneous crash of properties and financial services will lead to a recession that could be worse than that of 2008, and with no EU to help recover this time.

Britain would also lose numerous benefits from the EU, including consumer protection, temporary workers' rights, maternity leaves, environmental protection (ban on dangerous chemicals and pesticides), agricultural subsidies (£27bn annually), and so on.

Really!
maybe you should read the history of what the economists said what the EU should do and only do at the very beginning, and not interfere with each countries migration, telling which country what they should grow and if it is their turn to grow it etc etc
It was initially only suppose to be a Financial system to ease monetary funds and not one to control another people's populace on how they should live.


The European Union (EU) was created by the Maastricht Treaty on November 1st 1993. It is a political and economic union between European countries which makes its own policies concerning the members’ economies, societies, laws and to some extent security. To some, the EU is an overblown bureaucracy which drains money and compromises the power of sovereign states.

 

[Angela]

Religion is just a pretext for many political situations mainly driven by economic preference. No one goes round fighting and killing to have the right to pray in front of a picture of the virgin Mary anymore. Once an Irish always an Irish .

The religious difference translates into an economic and social difference; that's the point. The way I hear it from the Irish community here is that the hiring, union preferment, salaries, even access to social services, everything was skewed so that the Protestants had an advantage, and lots of gerrymandering of electoral districts to keep it that way. The way they tell it the Protestants didn't want to lose that advantage by joining "Catholic" Ireland.

Has all that changed? Was it not true in the past?

Maybe it's the people I know. There were more than a few Irish-Americans who in the past gave money to the IRA even though if asked they would have said they never supported terrorist organizations.

 

[sparkey]

I agree with Maciamo's narrative that the British voted for Brexit based on an incorrect narrative about immigration, and that it will affect the country economically negatively, but I think that the economic negatives are perhaps only in the short term. I think that this is salvageable, and could even be an economic plus if they give it enough time and implement the right policies.

Much of the short-term economic damage is due to speculation and uncertainty over agreements between the EU and UK. How much of a relative advantage will the EU attempt to gain over the UK? How much spite will there be? At first, it's almost inevitable that there will be competition to the UK's detriment, but both entities tend toward international cooperation and liberalization, so it's likely that they'll settle into mutually beneficial agreements that may not be all that different from the situation during union. The banks are a particular worry, but many countries (USA, Australia, whatever) have robust financial sectors without being in any particular union. Any lingering detriments to the UK over Brexit could be offset by taking advantage of being outside the EU's expensive regulatory apparatus. Switzerland and Norway are the oft-repeated success stories that do this.

I'm not sure I trust the UK as much as I trust Switzerland and Norway to implement smart, low-regulation policies, though. What happens if the UK leaves and then Corbyn comes to power? Worst of all worlds.

 

[Power77]

That is factually not true. Slough in Berkshire and Leicester are the least ethnically English city in England, with only 34% of White British in Slough and 45% in Leicester.

The highest percentages of Muslims are in Blackburn (28%), Bradford (25%, peaking at 51% in Bradford West), Luton (24.5%), Slough (24%), Birmingham (22%) and Leicester (19%), all well ahead of London (12%).

Oh come on Maciamo! Do you really think I'll believe those unsourced percentages? I mean why would London have a Muslim mayor if not a very significant part of its population is Muslim? And most (though not all) of the areas you mentioned voted mostly in favour of Remain anyway, so my point still stands.

 

[LeBrok]

Oh come on Maciamo! Do you really think I'll believe those unsourced percentages? I mean why would London have a Muslim mayor if not a very significant part of its population is Muslim? And most (though not all) of the areas you mentioned voted mostly in favour of Remain anyway, so my point still stands.

For the same reason Calgary has a muslim mayor.

 

[Voyager]

and he is right, again

For all those deceived by Democracy you have to cope with it, Anyway. :cool-v:

 

[Yetos]

I am disappointed by some of the reactions here (nordicwarrior, Sile, Aaron1981, Maleth, Yetos), but it is not surprising from people who aren't British, haven't lived in Britain and do not have any personal tie to the country. I should have mentioned from the start where I stand personally and emotionally. I am Belgian, but I have studied and lived in England and still spend about a third of my time in the country. I have family and friends in England. I have followed the Brexit debate attentively for the last few months, most of the time from England itself, and I am as flabbergasted as most Londoners and most of the political class by the results of the referendum, especially when all opinion polls had the Remain camp winner.

All I want tosay is that in Greece the referendum, had another question but same meaning with Brexit,
Nothing happened,
Brexit had clear question and meaning,
and I ask,
what is better?
to leave the Union to make your own state laws?
or to put fences all over Europe. more km than cold war times and bring NATO forces to secure the boarders?
there are things we see and things we do not.
We all know Cox killer was mental ill, (was he really?) but could that come from 'eternal' unemployment?,

Do not be disapointed,
It is not the original Idea of EC that turn people against,
it is that after 50-60 years the idea stayed an idea,
and instead of improving citizens life, in some areas only worse it is,
So I do not blaim the unemployed English for his desicion,
neither I moarn for EU not having England by her site
But I have to respect the peoples choice,
After all, EU is a Democratic Union, correct?
although many of high levels officers are not elected,

we need reformation of EU, and fast, and a fiscal union based with referendums, not just signed by politicians,
either, here we are, soon we will see European countries leaving the one when road is defined,

if Mercel pushes the long time way to exit, we are all doomed,
now about EU immigrants and English immigrants at EU I am sure a solution due to today status, can be found and take place fast for existing ones,

as you see, there are no personalities in EU like 20 years before,
and Mercel alone can not protect Union,
On the other hand, let England and Wales alone, they want to,

NO NEED FOR MOARNING
EITHER EU
EITHER UK,

all we need is fast referendums at N ireland and Scottland and a quick exit, to go both ahead,
either we will all face a 7 years wounded beast called EU, and a maniac England,

OR PUSH THE TTIP treaty FAST TO MAKE THE BIGGEST UNION (I don't think England will not enter that treaty)

 

[ElHorsto]

None of the EU leaders even thinks of resigning, except Cameron who failed to convince the people of the "EU greatness".

 

[nordicwarrior]

Hi Oriental-- long time indeed. I've come out of Eupedia retirement for this particular subject-- it's that important

Maciamo-- two brief points..
1. You seem to have an issue with older folks. Remember though, with age comes wisdom.

2. If the youth are so adept at dealing with change, well here comes a fresh new slate.

 

[nordicwarrior]

Maciamo, I am not heartless and I do wish you the best in these changing times. I have much enjoyed your site over the years.

But leaving the EU was and is the best way forward.

 

[Maciamo]

David Lammy, the Labour MP for Tottenhem in London and former minister for higher education has posted an article in the Guardian calling for a second referendum because, as he puts it, the consequences of Brexit are too grave and would lead to the dissolution of the United Kingdom. The article reflects perfectly my feelings and, I believe, those of the millions of Brits who voted to remain in the EU and went on to sign the petition for the second referendum. As Mr Lammy explains, when people voted last Thursday they didn't know it would prompt the independence of Scotland and Northern Ireland from the UK. That would mean not just the end of the United Kingdom of Great Britain, but also the end of the Union Jack and many symbols that many British people strongly associated with and probably of the British monarchy too. So are British people ready to give up their name, flag, symbols and traditions in order to quit the EU, just because a part of the population used the referendum as a no-confidence vote for the prime minister and didn't think of the consequences of their vote?

Here is a section of what Mr Lammy wrote. You will notice how closely it reflects what I said in my original post.

The impact of an economic downturn on my constituents is too devastating to contemplate. The impact will be similarly catastrophic across whole swaths of our country, especially in areas that are already struggling. In the manmade recession to follow, the worse off you are, the worse your future will be.

We need to get real, quickly: $2tn was wiped off global markets on Friday; the pound has plummeted; and Moody’s has already downgraded our credit rating from “stable” to “negative”. A Brexit would be self-immolation.

Nigel Farage and his gang of Brexiteers would have never quit or given up the fight on the basis of a result that was this close. You can’t write off 48% of voters without a serious fight, and we cannot usher in rule by plebiscite which unleashes the “wisdom” of resentment and prejudice reminiscent of 1930s Europe.

Are we simply going to stand idly by and let a recession caused by the hubris of Boris Johnson push more and more people into poverty? Are we going to let our links with the outside world be cast aside, leaving our children to grow up without the same opportunities for travel, study and cultural exchange that my generation have taken for granted?

Since Friday morning Britain has woken up to a hangover of nightmarish proportions. We could all see from the look on the faces of Johnson and Michael Gove that they know that they will be managing a perpetual decline in our economy and our national standing and reputation.

It is very clear that the leave campaigners do not have the slightest semblance of a plan. The promises that the campaign was built on were nothing more than a pack of lies. Before bedtime on Friday the claims about £350m extra cash to spend on public services and the ending of free movement of labour had already unravelled before our eyes.

The future of our country, of our young people and of their children and grandchildren is too much to throw away on the basis of a duplicitous campaign that has already fallen apart.

It is clear that people are angry with the political class and that, with the European Union coming to represent everything that is wrong with our country, they took this opportunity to give the establishment a kicking. But is Johnson going to care about these disaffected people who feel left out and let down? Not a jot. We are slowly waking up to the fact that the emperor has no clothes. Is a post-Brexit government going to inject money into the areas that lose out on employers and investment because we leave the European Union? Not a chance in hell.

The referendum was advisory and non-binding, in contrast to the referendum on electoral reform in 2011 which imposed a legal obligation on the government to legislate. Almost 500 members of parliament declared themselves in favour of remain, and it is within their powers to stop this madness through a vote in parliament.

It is also within parliament’s powers to call a second referendum, now that the dust has begun to settle and the reality of a post-Brexit nation is coming into view. We need a second referendum at the very least, on the basis of a plan that is yet to even be drawn up.

 

[bicicleur 2]

Allthough there were a lot of stupid voters, and the campaign was playing on sentiments, it should be a very clear signal to the EU leaders that there was a majority in Britain to opt out.
But there is no reaction at all of the EU leaders, execept that 'they should explain their project better'. No question about the project itself nor the way it is managed. What an arrogance.

 

[Voyager]

The Brexit is a sign of distrust toward Bruxelles not to Europe.
The real problem of any federalism system is the risk of dilution of responsability, specialy if we lack of real unity. At the end, Nobody is responsible for nothing. At the end it 's the open door to individuals greeds.IMO.

 

[Minty]

I can see that you have not followed the Leave vs Remain campaign closely in the last few months as I have. The Leave campaigners argued that EU citizens living in the UK costs the NHS (Britain's fully-subsidised healthcare system) billions of pounds, when in fact EU citizens in the UK contribute vastly more to the British economy than they cost it (UK gains £20 billion from European migrants according to a UCL economist). For this reason the Leave campaign is seen mostly as deceitful and xenophobic and has only been supported by Far Right parties in Europe, such as Marine Le Pen in France.

The question of Syrian refugees is irrelevant to the UK for three reasons:

1) Britain is an island and refugees can't just walk there by ignoring political borders, as they did elsewhere in Europe. .

They can fly there, flights are so cheap these days. Or even by boats.

2) The UK is not in the EU's visa-free, border-free zone (Schengen Area), so leaving the EU won't change anything in that regard. In fact leaving the EU would surely prompt the UK to join Schengen like Norway and Switzerland and therefore allowing any Muslim immigrants accepted in, say, France or Greece, to legally live in the UK too. In other words being in the EU but not in Schengen allows Britain to benefit economically from the EU without having to open its borders.

The problem is it only seems to benefit the upper class. My colleagues from Northern England are very upset with the EU and what it is doing to the UK, they have Blacks, Arabs and Eastern Europeans all wanting to come in, too much is too much, they say.

There are almost no Syrian refugees in Britain today. Only 5000 have been accepted, much less than Denmark (which is 12x less populous than Britain) or Belgium, and even remote Australia (3x less populous than the UK). In comparison Germany has already welcomed 600,000 refugees, i.e. over one thousand times more than the UK ! You can check statistics on the number of Syrian refugees by country here..

There are none today, it does not mean there will be none in the future. In Australia, we had Australian born Muslims (their parents were refugees) flew to Indonesia then try to fly from Malaysia to Syria to join the battle. They were caught in Indonesia before they had the chance to fly to Malaysia then to Syria to fulfill their "mission" and their Australian passports were cancelled. These refugees' children one day can continue to advance their "muslim invasion" one day, once they got their German passports.

So clearly Brexit has nothing to do with Syrian or other refugees. On the other hand, Britain has the third largest Muslim communities in Europe, nearly 5 million of them, mostly Pakistani and Bangladeshi from the former British Raj. Yet Brexit is not going to change anything about that. There has never been any talk by any party to expel Muslim immigrants - only European people living and working in the UK ! In fact, even Priti Patel, the British minister for employment, who is of Indian descent (although Hindu, not Muslim) ardently supported the Leave campaign.

The English people seem to have accepted their Indian and Pakistani immigrants, but they are not so keen to take on more Eastern European immigrants and Turkish or Middle Eastern immigrants without their own way of immigration control. They feel that the EU is deciding for them. That is the message I am getting from working with British.

In the first post you labelled the working class, the uneducated people "nincompoops", Brexit is the result of Elites, highly educated people looking down and ignoring the working class for decades.

 

[nordicwarrior]

A second referendum ignores the will of the people... they have spoken.

You may not like their answer, but saying the decision is non-binding... I don't want to entertain this notion because of the doors it could open.

The EU needs to learn from Brexit-- and learn quickly. A major course correction is overdue.

 

[nordicwarrior]

Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Greece...