Having lived in Japan, one thing that Japanese people never tire of telling foreigners is that Japan has hardly any natural resources of its own. Often that point is made to aggrandise Japan's achievements in becoming one of the richest countries in the world (at least until the 1990s) despite having no natural resources. In other words, it all thanks to the hard work of the Japanese people themselves.
Indeed, Japan imports 97% of its petrol and 98% of its natural gas. Almost all its petrol comes from the Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, United Emirates and Qatar). So it may come as a shock that Japan has so far done very little to get rid of its dependency on imported fossil fuels when it could produce all its electricity from local renewables. Japan is behind almost all other developed countries and many developing countries when it comes to clean energy and renewables. Only 29% of Japanese energy comes from low carbon sources - the same as the United Emirates. Japan is even behind countries typically associated with high pollution and high carbon emissions like Russia, Pakistan and China.
Yet there is no reason for Japan to waste billions each year in imported petrol and has to power the country. It's a nonsensical situation as the country has some of the world's highest potential for geothermal, tidal and wind power, and very decent solar potential too, being located at the same latitude as the Mediterranean. I have asked chat GPT what is the potential of electricity generation for geothermal, tidal, wind and solar power in Japan. Here are the answers.
Geothermal
Japan has significant geothermal energy potential due to its location on the Pacific "Ring of Fire," a region with high volcanic activity. Estimates suggest that Japan has about 23 GW of geothermal energy potential, ranking it among the top countries globally. However, as of now, only a small fraction of this potential is utilized, with installed geothermal capacity at approximately 0.6 GW (600 MW).
How Much Electricity Could Geothermal Cover?
If Japan fully harnessed its geothermal resources:
Theoretical Coverage:
If all 23 GW of potential were developed, geothermal could generate around 200 TWh of electricity annually, assuming an 85% capacity factor typical for geothermal plants.
This could meet 10-15% of Japan's total electricity demand (currently about 950-1000 TWh annually).
Current Contribution:
Geothermal currently accounts for less than 0.3% of Japan's electricity mix, showing significant room for growth.
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Tidal power
The potential of tidal power to cover Japan's electricity needs is limited but significant, depending on the extent of development. While Japan has strong tidal currents in certain areas, the total energy yield from tidal power would likely cover only a modest fraction of its electricity demand.
Estimated Potential:
Japan's theoretical tidal energy potential is estimated at about 10-20 GW of installed capacity, depending on the technology used and sites developed.
Assuming an 85% capacity factor (typical for tidal systems), this would generate around 75-150 TWh of electricity annually.
Electricity Demand Coverage:
Japan's annual electricity demand is approximately 950-1000 TWh.
Tidal power could therefore cover 7-15% of Japan's electricity needs if fully developed.
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Wind power
Japan has significant potential for wind power, especially offshore, due to its extensive coastline, strong winds, and advancing wind power technologies. If fully utilized, wind energy could cover a substantial portion of Japan's electricity needs.
Potential Wind Power Contribution:
As of 2023, wind power contributes about 1% of Japan's electricity generation, with 5.3 GW installed (onshore and offshore combined).
Electricity Demand Coverage:
If just 100 GW of offshore wind were developed (10-15% of potential), it could generate about 300 TWh annually, covering 30% of Japan's electricity needs.
Fully exploiting offshore resources could theoretically supply more than 200% of Japan's demand, enabling exports or complete decarbonization.
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Solar power
Japan has significant potential for solar power, and it already plays a crucial role in the country's renewable energy mix. Despite limited land availability, solar power could potentially cover a substantial portion of Japan's electricity needs, particularly through advanced technologies and efficient use of rooftops and underutilized land.
Potential Solar Power Contribution:
Conclusion, if fully developed Japan has the potential to cover 50% of its electricity demand through geothermal, tidal and solar power and an additional 200% through wind power. So even if it closed all its nuclear plants Japan could produce all its electricity from renewables and become a net exporter of electricity.
Indeed, Japan imports 97% of its petrol and 98% of its natural gas. Almost all its petrol comes from the Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, United Emirates and Qatar). So it may come as a shock that Japan has so far done very little to get rid of its dependency on imported fossil fuels when it could produce all its electricity from local renewables. Japan is behind almost all other developed countries and many developing countries when it comes to clean energy and renewables. Only 29% of Japanese energy comes from low carbon sources - the same as the United Emirates. Japan is even behind countries typically associated with high pollution and high carbon emissions like Russia, Pakistan and China.
Yet there is no reason for Japan to waste billions each year in imported petrol and has to power the country. It's a nonsensical situation as the country has some of the world's highest potential for geothermal, tidal and wind power, and very decent solar potential too, being located at the same latitude as the Mediterranean. I have asked chat GPT what is the potential of electricity generation for geothermal, tidal, wind and solar power in Japan. Here are the answers.
Geothermal
Japan has significant geothermal energy potential due to its location on the Pacific "Ring of Fire," a region with high volcanic activity. Estimates suggest that Japan has about 23 GW of geothermal energy potential, ranking it among the top countries globally. However, as of now, only a small fraction of this potential is utilized, with installed geothermal capacity at approximately 0.6 GW (600 MW).
How Much Electricity Could Geothermal Cover?
If Japan fully harnessed its geothermal resources:
Theoretical Coverage:
If all 23 GW of potential were developed, geothermal could generate around 200 TWh of electricity annually, assuming an 85% capacity factor typical for geothermal plants.
This could meet 10-15% of Japan's total electricity demand (currently about 950-1000 TWh annually).
Current Contribution:
Geothermal currently accounts for less than 0.3% of Japan's electricity mix, showing significant room for growth.
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Tidal power
The potential of tidal power to cover Japan's electricity needs is limited but significant, depending on the extent of development. While Japan has strong tidal currents in certain areas, the total energy yield from tidal power would likely cover only a modest fraction of its electricity demand.
Estimated Potential:
Japan's theoretical tidal energy potential is estimated at about 10-20 GW of installed capacity, depending on the technology used and sites developed.
Assuming an 85% capacity factor (typical for tidal systems), this would generate around 75-150 TWh of electricity annually.
Electricity Demand Coverage:
Japan's annual electricity demand is approximately 950-1000 TWh.
Tidal power could therefore cover 7-15% of Japan's electricity needs if fully developed.
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Wind power
Japan has significant potential for wind power, especially offshore, due to its extensive coastline, strong winds, and advancing wind power technologies. If fully utilized, wind energy could cover a substantial portion of Japan's electricity needs.
Potential Wind Power Contribution:
- Onshore Wind: Japan's onshore wind power potential is estimated at 100-300 GW, but suitable land is limited due to mountainous terrain and urbanization. Current installed onshore capacity is about 5 GW.
- Offshore Wind: Offshore wind is Japan's greatest opportunity, with an estimated potential of 600-1,000 GW, including both fixed-bottom and floating turbines. This could theoretically generate 2,000-3,000 TWh per year, far exceeding Japan's annual electricity demand of 950-1,000 TWh.
As of 2023, wind power contributes about 1% of Japan's electricity generation, with 5.3 GW installed (onshore and offshore combined).
Electricity Demand Coverage:
If just 100 GW of offshore wind were developed (10-15% of potential), it could generate about 300 TWh annually, covering 30% of Japan's electricity needs.
Fully exploiting offshore resources could theoretically supply more than 200% of Japan's demand, enabling exports or complete decarbonization.
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Solar power
Japan has significant potential for solar power, and it already plays a crucial role in the country's renewable energy mix. Despite limited land availability, solar power could potentially cover a substantial portion of Japan's electricity needs, particularly through advanced technologies and efficient use of rooftops and underutilized land.
Potential Solar Power Contribution:
- Theoretical Capacity:
- Estimates suggest Japan's solar power potential ranges between 100-150 GW of installed capacity on available land and rooftops.
- Assuming an average capacity factor of 13-15% (due to Japan's climate and geography), this could generate approximately 120-200 TWh per year.
- Current Contribution:
- As of 2023, Japan has about 80 GW of installed solar capacity, generating 90-100 TWh annually, covering 9-10% of the country's electricity demand.
- If fully developed to its theoretical potential (150 GW), solar power could cover around 15-20% of Japan's annual electricity demand (~950-1,000 TWh).
- With additional innovations like floating solar farms and energy storage, this percentage could increase.
Conclusion, if fully developed Japan has the potential to cover 50% of its electricity demand through geothermal, tidal and solar power and an additional 200% through wind power. So even if it closed all its nuclear plants Japan could produce all its electricity from renewables and become a net exporter of electricity.