Sustainability Japan heavily relies on imported fossil fuels even though it has tremendous potential for renewable energy

[Maciamo]

Having lived in Japan, one thing that Japanese people never tire of telling foreigners is that Japan has hardly any natural resources of its own. Often that point is made to aggrandise Japan's achievements in becoming one of the richest countries in the world (at least until the 1990s) despite having no natural resources. In other words, it all thanks to the hard work of the Japanese people themselves.

Indeed, Japan imports 97% of its petrol and 98% of its natural gas. Almost all its petrol comes from the Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, United Emirates and Qatar). So it may come as a shock that Japan has so far done very little to get rid of its dependency on imported fossil fuels when it could produce all its electricity from local renewables. Japan is behind almost all other developed countries and many developing countries when it comes to clean energy and renewables. Only 29% of Japanese energy comes from low carbon sources - the same as the United Emirates. Japan is even behind countries typically associated with high pollution and high carbon emissions like Russia, Pakistan and China.

Yet there is no reason for Japan to waste billions each year in imported petrol and has to power the country. It's a nonsensical situation as the country has some of the world's highest potential for geothermal, tidal and wind power, and very decent solar potential too, being located at the same latitude as the Mediterranean. I have asked chat GPT what is the potential of electricity generation for geothermal, tidal, wind and solar power in Japan. Here are the answers.

Geothermal

Japan has significant geothermal energy potential due to its location on the Pacific "Ring of Fire," a region with high volcanic activity. Estimates suggest that Japan has about 23 GW of geothermal energy potential, ranking it among the top countries globally. However, as of now, only a small fraction of this potential is utilized, with installed geothermal capacity at approximately 0.6 GW (600 MW).

How Much Electricity Could Geothermal Cover?

If Japan fully harnessed its geothermal resources:

Theoretical Coverage:

If all 23 GW of potential were developed, geothermal could generate around 200 TWh of electricity annually, assuming an 85% capacity factor typical for geothermal plants.
This could meet 10-15% of Japan's total electricity demand (currently about 950-1000 TWh annually).

Current Contribution:

Geothermal currently accounts for less than 0.3% of Japan's electricity mix, showing significant room for growth.

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Tidal power

The potential of tidal power to cover Japan's electricity needs is limited but significant, depending on the extent of development. While Japan has strong tidal currents in certain areas, the total energy yield from tidal power would likely cover only a modest fraction of its electricity demand.

Estimated Potential:

Japan's theoretical tidal energy potential is estimated at about 10-20 GW of installed capacity, depending on the technology used and sites developed.

Assuming an 85% capacity factor (typical for tidal systems), this would generate around 75-150 TWh of electricity annually.

Electricity Demand Coverage:

Japan's annual electricity demand is approximately 950-1000 TWh.
Tidal power could therefore cover 7-15% of Japan's electricity needs if fully developed.

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Wind power

Japan has significant potential for wind power, especially offshore, due to its extensive coastline, strong winds, and advancing wind power technologies. If fully utilized, wind energy could cover a substantial portion of Japan's electricity needs.

Potential Wind Power Contribution:

• Onshore Wind: Japan's onshore wind power potential is estimated at 100-300 GW, but suitable land is limited due to mountainous terrain and urbanization. Current installed onshore capacity is about 5 GW.
• Offshore Wind: Offshore wind is Japan's greatest opportunity, with an estimated potential of 600-1,000 GW, including both fixed-bottom and floating turbines. This could theoretically generate 2,000-3,000 TWh per year, far exceeding Japan's annual electricity demand of 950-1,000 TWh.

Current Wind Power Contribution:
As of 2023, wind power contributes about 1% of Japan's electricity generation, with 5.3 GW installed (onshore and offshore combined).

Electricity Demand Coverage:

If just 100 GW of offshore wind were developed (10-15% of potential), it could generate about 300 TWh annually, covering 30% of Japan's electricity needs.
Fully exploiting offshore resources could theoretically supply more than 200% of Japan's demand, enabling exports or complete decarbonization.

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Solar power
Japan has significant potential for solar power, and it already plays a crucial role in the country's renewable energy mix. Despite limited land availability, solar power could potentially cover a substantial portion of Japan's electricity needs, particularly through advanced technologies and efficient use of rooftops and underutilized land.

Potential Solar Power Contribution:

• Theoretical Capacity:
  • Estimates suggest Japan's solar power potential ranges between 100-150 GW of installed capacity on available land and rooftops.
  • Assuming an average capacity factor of 13-15% (due to Japan's climate and geography), this could generate approximately 120-200 TWh per year.
• Current Contribution:
  • As of 2023, Japan has about 80 GW of installed solar capacity, generating 90-100 TWh annually, covering 9-10% of the country's electricity demand.

Electricity Demand Coverage:

• If fully developed to its theoretical potential (150 GW), solar power could cover around 15-20% of Japan's annual electricity demand (~950-1,000 TWh).
• With additional innovations like floating solar farms and energy storage, this percentage could increase.

Conclusion, if fully developed Japan has the potential to cover 50% of its electricity demand through geothermal, tidal and solar power and an additional 200% through wind power. So even if it closed all its nuclear plants Japan could produce all its electricity from renewables and become a net exporter of electricity.

 

[Duarte]

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A highly developed and technological country like Japan should be concerned with making the most of its potential for generating clean energy, freeing itself from dependence on fossil fuels and nuclear fission (in the latter case, because it is a country with a high tectonic risk, let us remember Fukushima). The development of a clean energy matrix should be a goal that all countries in the world must strive for, making the most of their capacity to produce electricity with a low carbon footprint. In Europe, Spain is doing very well, but it faces the dilemma of producing 'excess' energy from renewable sources (wind and solar) at certain times (during the day and when the wind is strong). Since the technology for storing this excess energy on a large scale is still under development, if all this extra energy is fed into the distribution grid, the overload on the electrical system could cause blackouts like the one that recently affected Spain, Portugal and part of France. Brazil is currently facing the same dilemma as Spain and is developing projects to produce green hydrogen from renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power. One kilo of hydrogen has three times more energy than one kilo of gasoline. Furthermore, it can be produced using only water and renewable energy. Green hydrogen is completely clean, as long as the energy used in the electrolysis of water comes from renewable sources. Northeast Brazil has a natural vocation to become a green hydrogen production hub, due to its high solar incidence, the trade winds that blow all year round from the Atlantic and the already high installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power generation. It is expected that green hydrogen can be produced at around one dollar per kilo, which is the current cost of producing gasoline.

When it comes to clean energy generation, an article published by Deutsche Welke, written by journalist Alexander Busch, says that Brazil is a model of sustainable energy sovereignty, but the West only focuses on the devastation of the Amazon and that it is up to Brazilians to ensure that their pioneering role is recognized – and even set an example.

Some highlights from the article:

“In light of the wars in the Middle East, in recent days there has been growing fear that the price of oil will once again reach historic highs. This would be bad for the global situation, as more expensive fuel drives inflation and central banks would be forced to raise their interest rates. The consequence would be stagnation of the global economy, with high inflation.

In Brazil, such scenarios are seen as less dramatic than in Europe or Asia, which depend on oil imports. On the one hand, because the country is itself a major producer of fossil fuels. On the other, because agriculture covers a large part of the country's energy demand: 30% of the country's electricity and fuel comes from farms.

This is a unique situation worldwide. Countries such as India, Thailand and China, which also invest in bioenergy, have much lower percentages. In Germany, which for many years subsidized biogas projects with taxpayers' money, only 7% to 8% of energy comes from fields.

As a recently published analysis by the Bioeconomy Observatory of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV) shows, energy is produced on farms in a variety of ways, all of which replace oil.

Sugarcane provides ethanol. Corn and soybeans are used as fuel in the form of pure biodiesel or combined with other sources. In addition, sugarcane conglomerates feed the electricity grid by incinerating biomass; in other facilities, organic waste is transformed into biogas. The share of energy from fields will grow in Brazil. The second generation of ethanol production is just beginning, using enzymes to extract the substance from sugarcane fibers.

Bioethanol from corn is also growing rapidly, and the first sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) projects have already been launched. More and more agricultural companies are injecting their energy directly into the electricity grid, or becoming autonomous through solar panels. In this way, they will also participate in the development of green hydrogen fuel.

Europe barely registers this sustainable energy autonomy in Brazil. But in Brazil, it is also underestimated – a surprising fact, since, given the current geopolitical upheavals, energy autonomy is becoming an increasingly important factor for companies when choosing their location.

Europe is once again experiencing its dependence on imported energy, whether Russian natural gas or oil from the Middle East. Since the "oil crises" half a century ago, the continent has not managed to reduce this dependence.

Brazil, on the other hand, is basically independent, in addition to boasting one of the most sustainable energy productions in the world. Its energy matrix is decentralized, agrarian in nature and independent of fossil fuels.

In negotiations with global partners, the country should focus more heavily on its energy sovereignty, and its model could serve as a basis for other emerging agrarian countries. Unfortunately, Brazil is on the defensive at the international level.

With the argument of the devastation of the Amazon, its pioneering role in sustainability is obliterated. Especially by us Europeans, because China sees the situation very differently, showing great interest in adapting parts of the Brazilian agrarian energy system for itself.

However, it is also true that Brazil's agrarian boom is occurring in part at the expense of the environment – that is, of the rainforest and other biomes. Until the country clearly recognizes the co-responsibility of agribusiness in deforestation and does not effectively oppose it, in Western international associations it will be classified as an ecological sinner rather than an environmental pioneer. It is up to Brazil itself alone to change this situation.”