I was wondering how various countries compared in their murder clearance rates, so I had to look at the data and found something rather concerning. In the US the percentage of homicides that have been solved has been steadily declining since the 1960s. This graph shows that it declined from 91% in 1965 to 54% in 2020. In 2022 it stood at 52%. So half of all murders now go unsolved. It is rather counterintuitive there's new technologies should considerably improve the clearance rate. There are now CCTV cameras everywhere. DNA tests have never been so cheap and so easy to conduct. People's locations can be traced easily through smartphones. And yet the police is catching less and less murderers.
I checked if this trend was also happening in other countries but it appears to be a specifically American phenomenon. For example the murder solving rate in Germany has been hovering between 91% and 95% between 2011 and 2023.
This academic paper shows a homicide clearance rate of 96% to 99% in Finland, 88% to 100% in Switzerland, 73% to 89% in Sweden, and 70% to 80% in the Netherlands. But percentages oscillate from year to year with no particular upward or downward trend.
According to ChatGPT:
In Italy the situation has remained relatively stable with a clearance rate ranging between 75% and 85% of the last 40 years.
The clearance rate in Spain has been even more stable staying always between 85 and 90% since the 1980s.
In Belgium 75% to 80% of murders were solved in the 1980s and 90s, but the rate improved to 80 to 85% from the early 2000s to the present day. It's not a big change but the situation has improved unlike in the US.
In France the murder clearance rate hovered around 80 to 85% in the 1990s, then went up to 85 to 90% in the early 2000s, but apparently decreased in the last few years (2020s) to 70 to 75%, although it may be too early to tell.
What is interesting is that the homicide clearance rate has been decreasing in several English speaking countries over the last 30 years, although much less than in the US. In the United Kingdom it used to be about 90% in the 1990s, then fell to 85 to 90% in the early 2000s, 80 to 85% in the mid 2000s, and is now slightly under 80%. It says that budget cuts in policing may be to blame.
The situation is very similar in Australia where 85 to 90% of the cases were solved from the 1980s to early 2000s, then falling slightly to 80 to 85% in the 2010s and eventually 75 to 80% in the 2020s.
The police in Canada was able to solve 80 to 85% of murders from the 1980s to the early 2000s. However since 2015 the rate has suddenly dropped to 70 to 75%.
I checked if this trend was also happening in other countries but it appears to be a specifically American phenomenon. For example the murder solving rate in Germany has been hovering between 91% and 95% between 2011 and 2023.
This academic paper shows a homicide clearance rate of 96% to 99% in Finland, 88% to 100% in Switzerland, 73% to 89% in Sweden, and 70% to 80% in the Netherlands. But percentages oscillate from year to year with no particular upward or downward trend.
According to ChatGPT:
In Italy the situation has remained relatively stable with a clearance rate ranging between 75% and 85% of the last 40 years.
The clearance rate in Spain has been even more stable staying always between 85 and 90% since the 1980s.
In Belgium 75% to 80% of murders were solved in the 1980s and 90s, but the rate improved to 80 to 85% from the early 2000s to the present day. It's not a big change but the situation has improved unlike in the US.
In France the murder clearance rate hovered around 80 to 85% in the 1990s, then went up to 85 to 90% in the early 2000s, but apparently decreased in the last few years (2020s) to 70 to 75%, although it may be too early to tell.
What is interesting is that the homicide clearance rate has been decreasing in several English speaking countries over the last 30 years, although much less than in the US. In the United Kingdom it used to be about 90% in the 1990s, then fell to 85 to 90% in the early 2000s, 80 to 85% in the mid 2000s, and is now slightly under 80%. It says that budget cuts in policing may be to blame.
The situation is very similar in Australia where 85 to 90% of the cases were solved from the 1980s to early 2000s, then falling slightly to 80 to 85% in the 2010s and eventually 75 to 80% in the 2020s.
The police in Canada was able to solve 80 to 85% of murders from the 1980s to the early 2000s. However since 2015 the rate has suddenly dropped to 70 to 75%.
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