I would like to investigate what percentage of Y-DNA in Sardinia can be attributed to the Phoenicians. Since the Arabs, Greeks or Etruscans didn't settle in Sardinia, all the Southwest Asian and most of the West Asian DNA in Sardinia ought to have come through the Phoenicians.
Autosomal DNA
Based on the
Dodecad's K=12 autosomal admixtures, the Sardinians have 6.2% of Southwest Asian and 4.6% of West Asian admixture (along with 55.5% of Mediterranean). Modern Lebanese, the presumed descendants of the Phoenicians, have 23.9% of Southwest Asian, 32.4% of West Asian, and 28.8% of Mediterranean.
Since Ötzi had very little West Asian and no Southwest Asian admixture, it is relatively safe to think that Neolithic farmers didn't bring those admixtures, and that it is consequently of Phoenician or Roman origin. Modern Central Italians have 7.2% of Southwest Asian and 21.6% of West Asian, but they are certainly not representative of admixtures of ancient Romans of the Republic since ancient Rome became a huge melting pot during the empire and completely changed the gene pool of central Italy.
We could calculate the proportion of Phoenician vs Roman by looking at the Southwest Asian vs West Asian ratio. For the Phoenicians it is 3/4. For the Central Italians it is 1/3. Sardinians are unique in having more Southwest Asian than West Asian. Their ratio is the same as the Phoenicians by inverted. That makes them intermediary between modern Jordanians and Saudis. As a result, it can be envisaged that the Phoenicians had a higher proportion of J1 to J2 than modern Lebanese. It's actually hard to see how the Romans could have contributed any West Asian admixture at all, since they would have raised its proportion to the Southwest Asian admixture to around 50-50 (unless of course the ancient Romans had more Southwest Asian than West Asian, but I cannot imagine how this could be). So it is very possible that all the Southwest Asian and almost all the West Asian in Sardinia is of Phoenician origin. If that is the case, then around 5% of Mediterranean admixture could also be Phoenician, bring the total of autosomal DNA of Phoenician origin to approximately 16%. Let's see if similar proportions can be obtained from Y-DNA
Y-DNA
I have revised the Y-DNA frequencies for Sardinia, adding the Francalacci data to the previous data. The Sardinians now have an average of 4% of J1, 2.5% of R1b-V88, and 0.8% of R2, the three haplogroups that are most strongly correlated with the Phoenician homeland in modern Lebanon. They also surely brought J2, E1b1b, G2a and T, but so did Neolithic farmers and probably also the Romans. The difficulty lies in sorting out how much E1b1b and J2 is Phoenician and how much is Roman or Neolithic.
Based on modern frequencies in Lebanon, J2 is only slightly higher than J1 (26% against 20%). That is almost exactly the same proportion as among Jewish people. Therefore there is a good chance that the Phoenicians also had a similar proportion. If that is the case, 4 to 5% of Sardinian J2 would be Phoenician. But it could be just 1.5% or 2% if the Phoenicians really had a J1/J2 proportion intermediary between modern Jordanians and Saudis.
E1b1b is slightly lower than J1, so perhaps 3 to 3.5% of Sardinian E1b1b can be considered Phoenician.
Haplogroup T is at 5% in Lebanon, 1/4 of J1. That would give us 1% of Phoenician T, and 0.5% of Neolithic and/or Roman.
Haplogroup G is found at 1/3 of the frequency of J1 in Lebanon. G2a is at 12% in Sardinia, so 4% could be Phoenician.
There is 8% of R1b in Lebanon, but according to
the largest study on Lebanese Y-DNA V88 is only a small minority of the R1b lineages. Most are M269 or downstream (presumably L23). So there could be 4% of Phoenician R1b in Sardinia, the same as G2a, which is in agreement with the modern Lebanese frequencies.
As mentioned above, R1a-Z93 and Q1a3c could also be Phoenician, but could just as well be Alanic.
Haplogroup L, A and E1a could all have been brought by the Phoenicians. This would add up to 1.6% of Phoenician Y-DNA.
Overall I estimate that between 16% and 24% of Sardinian paternal lineages are of Phoenician origin. It is only slightly higher than the autosomal DNA. That would mean that the Phoenicians brought their women with them to their colonies and did not intermarry a lot with local women - at least in the case of Sardinia.
UPDATE 1:
In addition to the Phoenician Y-DNA there is 5.5% of North African E-M81 in Sardinia. It is likely that most of it came to Sardinia when the island was part of the Phoenician/Carthaginian empire. This subclade of E1b1b can neither be considered Neolithic nor Roman. 1% of Lebanese Y-DNA is E-M81. Not enough to account for more than a tiny fraction of the 5.5%.
E-M123, which makes up 2% of Sardinian lineages, is much higher in the Levant than in Europe, meaning that most of it could be of Phoenician origin, leaving perhaps 1.5% or 2% of Phoenician E-M78, and the rest of Neolithic origin. If that is true, then the Romans would have practically not contributed to any E1b1b in Sardinia. The alternative would be that either Neolithic farmers and/or the Phoenicians had much less E1b1b than thought. Anyway it is certain from this study that the Romans carried a much higher percentage of R1b-U152 than of E1b1b.
As for J2, even if Neolithic farmers had none of it, the Romans could only have brought between 2% and 6% to Sardinia once the Phoenician J2 is deducted. It is still a far cry from the 10.5% of R1b-U152.
UPDATE 2:
Here is the breakdown of Lebanese J2 subclades.
- J2a1 : 15.3%
-- J2a1b (M67) : 7.8%
- J2b (M12) : 2.7%
Deeper subclades were not tested, but according to the FTDNA Project, J2a1h2a1-L70 appears to be the most common subclade in Lebanon.
Here is the Sardinian breakdown:
- J2a* (M410) : 0.6%
-- J2a1* (L26) : 1.3%
--- J2a1b (M67) : 1.5% (including 0.7% of J2a1b1-M92)
--- J2a1h (L24) : 2% (including 0.4% of J2a1h2a1-L70)
-- J2a2 (L581) : 0.8% (including 0.25% of J2a2a-P279)
- J2b (M12) : 2% (including 1.6% of J2b2-M241)
The three most common subclades in Sardinia, M67, L24 and M12 are all well represented in Lebanon and could therefore be of Phoenician origin. I would need more details on Lebanese subclades to determine whether L581 could also be Levantine. The problem is that all these subclades are also found on the Italian mainland, so it is of little help to separate the Phoenician from the Roman lineages.
UPDATE 3 :
Out of the 11% of G2a in this study, 3.3% is L91+, a subclade typical of North Africa, and also found in Sicily. Since it isn't found in Lebanon, but sometimes pops up in northern Europe, it is most likely of Neolithic origin.
The rest of G2a includes:
- G2a3a (M406) : 0.8% => found in Lebanon but also throughout Europe.
- G2a3b1* (P303) : 2.1% => potentially Indo-European, could be Roman.
-- G2a3b1a1 (U1) : 0.9% (all L13+ or L1266+) => very probably Indo-European, Celto-Italic, Roman.
-- G2a3b1a2 (L497) : 0.5% => very strongly mirrors the distribution of R1b-P312, and especially U152. Almost certainly Roman.
-- G2a3b1a3a (Z1903) : 2.4%