Thank you.
Please don't loose your patience, it makes you sound intelectually insecure.
Wrong. If and only if the stochastic process is modelled by a specific probability distribution function (and you must be very lucky to find even a semi-perfect match!) and is repeated infinitely so that time averaging (evening out of rates...) takes places. This is not the case! Abrupt events like wars, that come as a surprise, have a major effect, and are often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of
hindsight, do happen.
Wrong. You assume probability of bottleneck for large populations is p = 0 (it doesn't happen), when it is actually p > 0 (it can happen). In other words, it is not impossible, but probable, that bottlenecks can and will happen in any population of any size as a result of war. Even if you lack higher knowledge in statistics, it is never to late to learn how
you are fooled by randomness of the particular events involved.
Wrong. You insist on using an example of dice to support your argument, despite that literature already dismissed this approach a long time ago. "
One problem, labeled the ludic fallacy by Taleb, is the belief that the unstructured randomness found in life resembles the structured randomness found in games." Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory.