I was almost sure that global warming had only negative effects on a global scale. And I supported the climate agreements. In the last days I am being consumed by a certain doubt:
If the temperature rises, will the deserts expand or contract?
By chance I was reading about the effects of Ice Ages: the deserts expand.
It was a bit counter-intuitive in the beginning but than it made sense. Colder temperatures mean more water stored in the polar caps and therefore less water in circulation and lower humidity in the air. Result: deserts expand and the animals follow the green. The out of Africa migration is a consequence of that.
So now I know by politically unbiased facts (ice age) that Colder Temperatures = Desert Expansion.
It is very hard now to believe that also Warmer Temperatures = Desert Expansion.
I am very close to change my mind and state that Global Warming will reduce the desert. I was discussing it yesterday with few other postdocs (we are all physicists) and we all lacked an informed decision while strongly supporting the Paris agreement.
So I will repeat the question:
If you could control the temperature knob to reduce the deserts, which way should you go (red or blue) and why?
I was in Hydrology and enviromental technics in University,
Civil engineering Polytechnical school,
I sttudy as was possible statistic of μετεορολογια, statistic of weather, not forecasting,
my proffessor believed in little Ice age,
and consider the global warming from gas like Methan as too exagarated, too much pumped,
and he was right,
today decades after he was true,
the Global warming 'scientists' said some tremendous numbers,
terryfing the word,
especially the long dry era of Pados (Po) valley in Italy they maid it as a global danger alarm,
we input the little Ice age (circle of sun of 7 11 96 300 years) to the global warming,
also try to focus on the sun activity more than with gases,
and the model seems until today giving more correct results than global warming,
for example global warming theories, said about a reduction of precipitation in Makedonia, at about 40-50%
today we see that anual precipitation is only reduce at the second class meaning lower than 0.5 %
BUT
the model also predict long time dry periods,
which also we see today,
the results at least as concerns the statistic form are correct as predicted, rejecting the Global phenomena by 75%
meaning that the alarm of scientists about fast and huge disasters were wrong,
at least in local and wider area around Continental N Greece and suroundings,
for example we predicted that N greece slowly is turning to a kind of Mousones,
so although anual precipitations will not drop in height (yetograph-ema), as global warming theory wanted,
yet dry will last longer than previous,
that is beacause weather is turning like N India,
rains will be gathered mainly in 2 periods of 1 1/2 month each,
and dry might last even 6 months,
the statistical results we used were from 1950's till 1998
and the later results, till 2016 we met again aproved that,
So dry-desertification will not happened at N Greece due to loss of anual precipitation height,
but due to lower the rain period,
for example at 1950 the annual was about 450 mm of H[SUB]2[/SUB]O
today is about same above 420 mm
but the spread among all the months was like an trigonometry fraction
with high peaks November December, and dry mostly June July,
today seems that at the anual distance to show 2 peaks
1 in Octomber November and one in May June and longer drying periods
that has the effect the soil to absorve water enough for smaller periods,
and most of rain water to be driven to sea, without the soil to absorve it,
since it is full.
so the high precipitation in a small period has the effect of diabrosis, soil corrοsion,
cause heavy rain slams the ground and roots of grass
and long dry periods also kill the natural fauna which means extra errosion/corrosion,
corrosion and no cover by grass, brings desertification
like in steppe,
cause sun evaporates the water direct from the soil and deep enough.
covered by grass areas show lower desertification,
anyway
I believe that terryfing and disastrous Global warming phenomena as expessed at 80's 90's
as the time passed seems to be measured or predicted wrong,
why?
cause they put the human activity at the degree of 66,66% to 78% the most worst,
decrease human activity to 13-23% and you have better or correct results,
some problems of global warming and desrtification as a result when we did the work.
and to my opinion are correct
,
water proof surfaces, like asphalt, concrete etc they raise high temperature, and mainly drive the water away from soil, direct to sea via pipelines,
the Ozon shield O[SUB]3[/SUB], but here the strange phenomenon is that the more the warming, the more ozon is produced at sea!!!!!!!!
and last
4rth the gass of human activity.
and to make a joke,
a friend of mine used to say about global warming
SAVE THE PLANET
DO NOT EAT BEANS
YOU PRODUCE METHAN-io
a global warming gas :grin::grin:
what always wonder,
if subwater nuclear test have something to do with 1970's long dry and hot era