I don't believe in massive replacements of population - I do think Lombards in North Italy mixed with Celtic previous occupants (not at the beginning, surely, the keeped the better lands, but after - In different places we see previous vanquished population growing numerous enough again and crossing (East England after the Saxons, preceltic or pre-beakers populations in some places of France...)
Respectfully of course there are many, many instances of near complete population replacement. We can look to Poland, Czech Republic, and the Sudeten Germans/Sorbs/Masurians in modern european times, the American Indian in North America, the Taino once conquered in the Caribbean are now genetically extinct for all intent and purposes-
Keep in mind all these events took place in non-tribal periods, during which the victor population was acculturated into the cultural aspects of Christianity and its morality, which was no impediment to these acts.
The tribal migration era peoples would not be affected in any cultural way by this form of morality. Also, keep in mind that even one year of failed/stolen/destroyed crops meant almost certain mass famine in these eras.. A population falling under the control of another tribe would be the last in line for such resources if they were allowed to share them at all.
Even in Britain, if we look at roughly 20% of the current (supposedly historical) Y-dna being I1, R1a, or Q, which we could comfortably attribute to migrations from non-brythonic peoples, probably for the most part Scandinavians,
another probably 20% are R1b-s21 which is not shared with other Isles' peoples and is likely largely anglo-saxon, and throw in another 10% or so for the various forms of Hg J1/J2 and E3b, G..etc...
With this very conservative estimate comfortably 50% of modern "English" testees can be determined non-Brythonic celt via Y-dna. Keep in mind here that very significant recent influxes of Irish and Scots populations fully indentify as 'British', 25% of 'English' people have at least one Irish grandparent, and all these persons descendants are included in the 'Engish' Y-results in cases where the ancestor is not a recent immigrant.
All in all, in England for example, you are easily well over the 50th percentile, and probably closing on at least the 60th percentile of non-brythonic paternal heritage. (Including U-152/S-28, as well would EVEN further raise this population replacement pct)
This all means that easily 60% of self-identified cultural Britons are pretty likely to be descendants of some other population than males of the celtic tribal confederations that tried to oppose Ceasars landing..
It is too major a factor in the case of Lombardy/Po valley over-representation of U-152/S-28 to not first look to the Lombards and Goths, and really the only reason not to do this is that many have made personal assumptions that they are committed to defending, and conceding that U-152 stands a notable chance of being a legacy of Lombards, Goths, and other eastern Germanic (destroyed) populations interferes with past assumptions they have declared.
As I said before, the smaller pcts. of U-152 in so-called Belgic or Rhenish French populations is also right were a very large and well armed population of Goths settled and later disappeared into the general Frankish populations.
There is no basis for assuming that the SNP/Hg of Western Germanic tribal populations would be the same as now defunct Eastern Germanic tribal era populations. We can demonstrate this based on the differences in SNP/Hg between extant North Germanic populations from extant Western Germanic speaking populations, whose largest Y-dna components are not even in the same Haplogroup- let alone different SNP's.
MOESAN said:
we are speaking about PRESENT DAY populations after all and other events took place as local emigrations, erasing of previous ethnic barriers... - for Y-G I assume they reminded with strong %s in higland regions of Germany (retaining for a while different cultural traits) and that they was of no weight in the big germanic movements - the other Y-Gs we see in Northern Europe could be associated for a part to Alani people - That Y-R-U152 could be present among last Western Germanic tribes is not absurd at all (see Western Poland and possible Urnfield influence there) but I do not think it could explain the huge presence in Corsica and N-Italy -
we are obliged to do hypothesis in absence of ancient DNA, it is true: but common sense is necessary when speaking about numerous populations and their collective movings
There are certainly massive and often unrecorded population movements that must be taken into account, Plague impact and resistance in a given area or population for instance. To do due-dilligence in assessing this is important, but I think also one must pursue a LOGICAL, not scatter-shot approach that focuses first on known settlements, size of settlement, most recent mass resettlement, in making such a assessment.
"Meeting with little opposition, for the country had been ravaged by war and plague, they occupied the great plain between the Alps and the Apennines, ever since called Lombardy. It was a thorough conquest. They made no pretense of alliance with the empire, as the Ostrogoths had done, nor did they leave the conquered Italians in possession of their estates. The continuity of Roman civilization, which had survived so many invasions, was at last broken, or at least severely strained. About 575 A.D., marauding bands of Lombards began to push farther south, and within a decade had occupied the center of Italy almost to the southern end of the peninsula."
With the specific instance of Lombardy and U-152 constituting 1/2 the population in the Historic settlement area, no real investigation of the genetics behind this can be started until one starts with the potential for this to have been carried to its current area of elevated occurrence by the Lombards.
A lot of people are in my opinion disinclined or resistive to such a consideration because they may have already attributed U-152 as "italo-celtic", "belgic", gaulish, etc.. and to accept that this may in fact be the result of Lombardic genetic introgression disturbs these earlier assessments. In any event, I appreciate your response, forum and thoughts on this matter.