Ancient DNA from Hungary-Christine Gamba et al

In that regard, this article purportedly recounts a conversation with Lazaridis:
"By examining admixture levels in these groups, they found that an early European farmer split off from the rest of the European farmers early on and mixed with eastern European hunter-gatherers to form the Yamnaya population, which lived on the Steppes, Lazaridis said."

Now, I'm always a little leery of reports from journalists, even science journalists, plus it's a little vague. Does he mean that the EEF component in Yamnaya came only from the west, or was some of it from the Caucasus region?

Yamnaya is heck of a interesting case. It is at the northern frontier which Farmers never completely breached and didn't fully assimilate Hunter Gatherers living there. We have very successful Cucuteni farmers to the west and north-west of Black Sea, and Yamnaya HGs to the North. Were the HGs too numerous around these big rivers' fishing grounds? Were winters there too long and too harsh for ancient farmers and their crops? Probably the combination. Some historians (like David Anthony) believe that Corded Ware culture arose from combination of Cucuteni and Yamnaya. They've become farmers who could supplement their diet by hunting wild games, in case their crops failed. Perhaps the beginning of Indo Europeans? I think these Bronze Age Corded folks' genom will be very close to modern North-Eastern European one. I don't think there was huge population change afterwards, although some shift towards more ANE could have happened with time.
 
Another interesting and baffling at same time is how modern Near East plots so far away from EEF. Supposed origin of EEF is in Fertile Crescent (~80%?). Why then the distance of EEF to Near East is as vast as to Eastern Europeans who has 40% EEF ancestry?
Does this indicate huge invasions from the east, from central Asia? Inversions and mixing which pulled original population so much towards central Asian admixtures, ANE included.

Eastern European case is easier to decipher, because they never became fully Neolithic Farmers, unlike central and south Europeans, and experienced known invasions from the east, to shift them east on PCA plot. Near Easterners however started as original farmers, closely related to EEF, but still managed to build up similar distance as Eastern Europeans. The only population who resisted too much pull are some Bedouins, who plot exactly south to EEF.

Actually going by separate axis is more understandable, and I should correct myself somewhat. On North-South axes Near East and Caucasus plots very close to EEF, especially KO2, denoting similar farming past and admixture, I guess. However on West-East axes, they were pulled extremely to the East, same or more than Eastern Europeans, and even more than Russians.

Where the original NEF farmers coming from very small population over imposing themselves over already diversified population of Near East HGs? But in this case shouldn't we see the effect of almost total population replacement, like in Southern Europe? EEF like farmers all around the whole area. I believe this is most likely the scenario.
Following this logic, the strong pull to the East started after Neolithic in Bronze Age, through Indo Iranian invasions, Scythians, Turks, who else, ending with last Mongol invasion. Deep penetration of R1b folks in Near East, Egypt and Sub Saharan Africa fit the bill. Later colonialists, Russians included, could only pull it back West, so they don't count.
Surprisingly Lebanese and Syrians are having as strong pull to the east as Ukrainians and Lithuanians. In this case, we might be talking about Huge, really huge, invasions into Near East, on a scale of partial population replacement.

In this case IR1 invader from the east is nothing weird at all. He is just a fresh arrival and didn't have time to mix with locals yet to get the "proper" admixtures for the region. By the same process pulling the region East.

Can't wait for any samples from Near East already!





ncomms6257-f2.jpg
 
LeBrok:For that reason I believe that BR1&2 are not fresh arrivals from the East. They have been their for few generations (beginning of Bronze Age) and already had mixed with locals well, same way modern Europeans are. If they were the fresh arrivals they would have looked more like IR1, the extreme outlier.

I see your point, but for the percentages to work out wouldn't the Indo-Europeans have had to move across Europe in the course of a generation or two? Otherwise, if it were in stages, with the BR1's and BR2's moving from Hungary after a couple of generations and then mixing in the west, the end result in France wouldn't still look like BR1 and BR2. Does that make sense?

Some historians (like David Anthony) believe that Corded Ware culture arose from combination of Cucuteni and Yamnaya. They've become farmers who could supplement their diet by hunting wild games, in case their crops failed. Perhaps the beginning of Indo Europeans?

From what I know generally about the Indo-Europeans, Yamnaya is the Indo-Europeans. Everything radiated out from there. Also, there was that tweet from the conference that literally said it: Yamnaya=Indo-Europeans. Then there was the tweet that said Corded really only applied to North Europe and part of Central Euope. I think they're only part of the story. I know Anthony has icon status, and he's consulting or whatever on the Samarra paper. I think that's both a very good and a questionable thing. I know I'm always saying geneticists should pay more attention to historians and archaeologists, but I think when they're in the room, so to speak, and are going to be listed as co-authors, politics becomes part of the equation. You would think they would want to look at it "clean", with no preconceptions, at least at first.

Actually going by separate axis is more understandable, and I should correct myself somewhat. On North-South axes Near East and Caucasus plots very close to EEF, especially KO2, denoting similar farming past and admixture, I guess. However on West-East axes, they were pulled extremely to the East, same or more than Eastern Europeans, and even more than Russians.


The Near East and the Caucasus are both pulled east and slightly north. The populations that resisted the pull the most are, I think, those that in the more southern regions (Bedouins, Palestinians, etc.)got additional SSA in more recent millennia. (Or maybe that SSA admixture pulled the Bedouin south?)They're also the populations that got a lot less ANE. ANE levels in the Caucasus, for example, which was pulled the furthest to the north and east, are very high. I think it's an infusion of a much more ANE admixed group or groups. Then, as you say, you have to add in the Turks, and the Mongols as well, and perhaps some backflow from Indic regions as well. It has seemed to me for a long time, and I've said it often enough to be really boring I'm sure, that the modern Near Easterners are not the same as the original farming populations that went to settle in Europe.
 
I see your point, but for the percentages to work out wouldn't the Indo-Europeans have had to move across Europe in the course of a generation or two? Otherwise, if it were in stages, with the BR1's and BR2's moving from Hungary after a couple of generations and then mixing in the west, the end result in France wouldn't still look like BR1 and BR2. Does that make sense?
I might not understand you correctly. Neolithic Europe looked very consistent from West to East, all same EEF, so no matter where bronze age warriors would have mixed with locals they would have ended up looking the same, genetically speaking. That's why even if they mixed in ancient Hungary, they look like French. This is them who pulled modern Europe to the east, except for isolated Basques and Sardinians. Eastern Europe and Balkans are pulled more east than the rest, due to consecutive encroachments of Huns, Bulgars, Mongols, Avars, Scythians and alike.
I'm not sure if IE came in one huge wave, few waves or constant trickle. One is sure that these particular two BRs were already mixed with locals and in proportions even to modern French. They are both from same small geographic region. After initial mixing of BR1 there was not much change in population dynamics, therefore BR2 has almost the same spot on the plot.



From what I know generally about the Indo-Europeans, Yamnaya is the Indo-Europeans. Everything radiated out from there. Also, there was that tweet from the conference that literally said it: Yamnaya=Indo-Europeans. Then there was the tweet that said Corded really only applied to North Europe and part of Central Euope. I think they're only part of the story. I know Anthony has icon status, and he's consulting or whatever on the Samarra paper. I think that's both a very good and a questionable thing. I know I'm always saying geneticists should pay more attention to historians and archaeologists, but I think when they're in the room, so to speak, and are going to be listed as co-authors, politics becomes part of the equation. You would think they would want to look at it "clean", with no preconceptions, at least at first.
Right, I agree that Yamnaya or Yamna, especially in second half of existence, is already mixed Farmers/HGs, and with IE character and ready for expansion and actually expending. I think the mixing with Cucuteni farmers started earlier in previous culture.



The Near East and the Caucasus are both pulled east and slightly north. The populations that resisted the pull the most are, I think, those that in the more southern regions (Bedouins, Palestinians, etc.)got additional SSA in more recent millennia. (Or maybe that SSA admixture pulled the Bedouin south?)They're also the populations that got a lot less ANE. ANE levels in the Caucasus, for example, which was pulled the furthest to the north and east, are very high. I think it's an infusion of a much more ANE admixed group or groups. Then, as you say, you have to add in the Turks, and the Mongols as well, and perhaps some backflow from Indic regions as well. It has seemed to me for a long time, and I've said it often enough to be really boring I'm sure, that the modern Near Easterners are not the same as the original farming populations that went to settle in Europe.
For fan I made a dot with NEF letters by it, where I think original Near Easter Farmer fits.

NEF plot.jpg
 
Eastern Europe and Balkans are pulled more east than the rest, due to consecutive encroachments of Huns, Bulgars, Mongols, Avars, Scythians and alike.

That's not the only reason. The mere lack of EEF also causes an eastward shift. Balts for instance appear east of Orcadians, but not because they have more ANE (they don't, when divided by the WHG amount), but because they have less EEF.
It's more the Balkan populations and south Italians who experienced Caucasic, Iranian and alike admixtures. As we know, mongol admixture is only relevant in Finns, Uralics and Russians, but even there it is still very minor and also it is not known which shift east-asian admixture would cause (East Asians have less ANE than most europeans, see here (reference).). East asian is very different from "West-Asian" and would be an own dimension, almost impossible to squeeze into the two-dimensions of a PCA plot. The PCA plot looks quite nice because it mostly represents approximately the three main populations from Lazaridis' et al paper, which still are easy enough to fit into a two-dimension plot.

And then ANE has more than one source. In northern Europe it is more often of mesolithic origin, especially in NE-Europe, as can be seen by the ANE/WHG ratio which is not at all higher in NE Europe than elsewhere. Only in SE-central Europe and Italy (skyrocketing ANE/WHG ratio) but also (to a lesser extent) NW-Europe it also more-or-less came as "West-Asian" package from Caucasus-like and iranic peoples or IEans. Mongols are completely different.
 
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Modern Russians roughly equal IR1.

I believe this is because the blue bar does not differentiate between mesolithic ANE, which is usually "shipped" together with WHG, and "West-Asian" blended ANE. The Russians, who are heavily admixed by Finns and Uralics, certainly possess more of mesolithic ANE than Near-Eastern/Caucasian ANE.

EDIT: now I recall that IR1 possessed Y-HG N. Could it be that IR1 was not Caucasian-like but rather Russian-like, coming from NE-Europe? That would be too strange. I rather keep the Caucasus origin hypothesis for now, despite the finnic hints. Afterall, the PCA plot shows that IR1 is closer to Bulgarians and Romanians than Russians.
 
The Russians and the northeastern Europeans seem to have gotten the great majority of their farmer ancestry from these later migrations, although I don't know offhand whether the archaeology would show when more of it came, the Bronze Age migrations or the Iron Age ones.

I'm inclined towards Iron Age.
By the way, here is a thread about an interesting experiment done by somebody. Mixing an average Armenian (as 'West-Asian' ANE representative) with an average Spaniard (EEF) and Lithuanian (WHG) results in a russian-looking face. When using Georgian instead of Armenian, the result is more average-central european, probably because Georgians are much less dinarid-looking than Armenians (armenian 'dinarid' is called 'armenid', but it is fundamentally the same in my opinion).

Physical Anthropology is not my forte, but isn't "Dinaric" supposed to fit with "mountain" origin? The Caucasus would certainly fit with that.

My anthropology is amateurish, so caution! But I still feel safe enough to make statements in light of the vast amount of aged pseudo-scientific literature.
Yeah, 'dinaric' is remarkably strong in mountains: Caucasus (although diversity there is huge with completely un-dinaric populations neighbouring; many separating valleys probably created different populations; some say that Armenia actually experienced balkanic migrations!), Carpathian, Balkans-Greece-Anatolia (very mountainous as a whole), Alpes (Tyrolians are often dinarid, for instance the Duke of Liechtenstein). But in more western and northern mountains 'dinarid' seems to become rare (Coon has shown some english dinarids, but they are exceptions). I personally think they didn't completely disappear, they just blended out, resulting in some particular types, often falsely classified as cro-magnoids because of their squareish skulls for instance.
 
El Horsto:It's more the Balkan populations and south Italians who experienced Caucasic, Iranian and alike admixtures.

I'm sorry, El Horsto, but I don't see how this applies to southern Italians at all, or even necessarily to the Greeks, although they are nearby at least, and this is ignoring the documented presence in Ukraine, the Hungarian plain and even other areas.

Just for reference purposes so we know what areas we're talking about, I did a little research on Wiki. Yes, I know, but I checked a lot of the citations where they were available and they seem fine. Where there were none, the statements comported with everything I remember about the various groups. Of course, if someone has some papers which challenge these views, I think it's important that we see them.

Let's start with the pre-Scythians, and see what the paper under discussion has to say:
“Iron metallurgy first appeared in central Europe during the lst millennium BC. During the early phase of the Iron Age the regions east and west of the Danube were parts of two separate cultural provinces 53 The Eastern variant of the Central European Hallstatt culture prevailed in Transdanubia, while pre-Scythian, and later Scythian, cultures inhabited the Great Hungarian Plain and the northern mountainous regions.

Despite decades of extensive excavations there are only a handful of Iron Age settlements on the Great Hungarian Plain. This is due to the fact that the pre-Scythian populations practiced a form of nomadic stockbreeding and their transient settlements left few traces in the archaeological record
54.

The origin of the pre-Scythian populations of the Great Hungarian Plain (the so called ‘Mezőcsát communities’) remains unclear. The excavation of Early Iron Age burials from this region has provided important new information as burial rites resembled the mortuary practices of the pre-Scythian period in the steppe, suggesting that the Mezőcsát communities were not descendants of the local Late Bronze Age population but most likely arrived to the Great Hungarian Plain from the East
54 in the last phase of the Neolithic, around 4,500 BC, at the end of the Atlantic Period.


Here are some excerpts from Wiki on the Scythians.

The region known to classical authors as Scythia included:
The Pontic-Caspian steppe: Ukraine, southern Russia and western Kazakhstan (inhabited by Scythians from at least the 8th century BC)[5]
Sarmatia, corresponding to Ukraine and the eastern Balkans[6]
Scythia Minor: corresponding to the lower Danube river area west of the Black Sea, with a part in Romania and a part in Bulgaria
The northern Caucasus area

Where do you see Italy mentioned here, or even Greece for that matter, although Greece is at least nearby?

In the second half of that century, Scythians succeeded in dominating the agricultural tribes of the forest-steppe and placed them under tribute.Written sources tell that expansion of the Scythian state before the 4th century BC was mainly to the west.

An area of Thrace was subjugated and levied with severe duties. During the 90 year life of Ateas, the Scythians settled firmly in Thrace and became an important factor in political games in the Balkans. At the same time, both the nomadic and agricultural Scythian populations increased along the Dniester river.

From the story of Polyaenus and Frontin, it follows that in the 4th century BC Scythia had a layer of dependent population, which consisted of impoverished Scythian nomads and local indigenous agricultural tribes, socially deprived, dependent and exploited, who did not participate in the wars, but were engaged in servile agriculture and cattle husbandry.

So, from all of that, I see a Scythian influence on the greater Hungarian plain, extending northwards into the mountains, and even beyond that, because the forest-steppe people were a subject, exploited population, and in Thrace, i.e. the eastern Balkans, Bulgaria and Romania.

If you have papers that refute of all this, could you provide some links? I don’t pretend to have a specialty in the Scythians.

Ed. For spelling and spacing.
I'm not saying that it couldn't have moved further west and then south into northern Italy. However, as an analysis in a subsequent post shows, the northern Italian and even Tuscan numbers are in line with the rest of eastern and central Europe. We have no data on southern Italy.
 
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You also mentioned the Avars, so let’s take a look at them.

From the Wiki article on the European Avars:

The Avars /ˈævɑrz/ were a group of equestrian warrior nomads[1] of Altaic extraction[2] who established an empire spanning considerable areas of Central and Eastern Europe from the late 6th to the early 9th century.[3]
Although the name Avar first appeared in the mid-5th century, the Avars of Europe enter the historical scene in the mid-6th century AD,[4] having formed as a mixed band of warriors in the Pontic-Caspian steppe wishing to escape Göktürk rule. Their linguistic affiliation may be tentatively deduced from a variety of sources, betraying a variety of languages spoken by ruling and subject clans. Oghur, a distinct branch of the Turkic languages, figures prominently for the original Avar language.[5] In any event, Slavic ultimately became the lingua franca in the Avar Khaganate.[6]

1. Many steppe empires were founded by groups who had been defeated in previous power struggles but had fled from the dominion of the stronger group. The Avars were likely a losing faction previously subordinate to the (legitimate) Ashina clan in the West Turk khanate, this fled west of the Dnieper.



2. These groups usually were of mixed origin, and each of its components was part of a previous group.



Anthropological
research has revealed few skeletons with Mongoloid-type features, although there was continuing cultural influence from the Eurasian nomadic steppe. The late Avar period shows more hybridization, resulting in higher frequencies of Euro-Mongoloids.[15] Mongoloid and Euro-Mongoloid types compose about one-third of the total population of the Avar graves of the eighth century.[16] According to Pál Lipták the early Avar anthropological material was almost exclusively Europoid in the 7th century, while grave-goods indicated Middle and Central Asian parallels.[17] On the other hand, cemeteries dated for the 8th century contained Mongoloid elements among others.


The Avar army was composed from numerous other groups: Slavic, Gepidic and Bulgar military units.

The Carpathian basin was the centre of the Avar power-base. The Avars re-settled captives from the peripheries of their empire to more central regions. Avar material culture is found south to Macedonia

Initially, the Avars and their subjects lived separately, except for Slavic and Germanic women who married Avar men. Eventually, the Germanic and Slavic peoples were included in the Avaric social order and culture, itself Persian-Byzantine in fashion.[19] Scholars have identified a fused, Avar-Slavic culture, characterized by ornaments such as half-moon-shaped earrings, Byzantine-styled buckles, beads, and bracelets with horn-shaped ends.[19] Paul Fouracre notes, "[T]here appears in the seventh century a mixed Slavic-Avar material culture, interpreted as peaceful and harmonious relationships between Avar warriors and Slavic peasants. It is thought possible that at least some of the leaders of the Slavic tribes could have become part of the Avar aristocracy".[20]


 
We can then turn to the Alans and the Huns:

As to the Alans, here is what I have found:
"Archaeological finds support the written sources. P. D. Rau (1927) first identified late Sarmatian sites with the historical Alans. Based on the archaeological material, they were one of the Iranian-speaking nomadic tribes that began to enter the Sarmatian area between the middle of the 1st and the 2nd centuries."

"By the beginning of the 1st century, the Alans had occupied lands in the northeast Azov Sea area, along the Don and by the 2nd century had amalgamated or joined with the Yancai of the early Chinese records to extend their control all the way along the trade routes from the Black Sea to the north of the Caspian and Aral seas. The written sources suggest that from the end of the 1st century to the second half of the 4th century the Alans had supremacy over the tribal union and created a powerful confederation of Sarmatian tribes.

From a Western point-of-view the Alans presented a serious problem for the Roman Empire, with incursions into both the Danubian and the Caucasian provinces in the 2nd and 3rd centuries."

Also,
"Roman sources first mention the Alani in the 1st century and later describe them as a warlike people who specialized in horse breeding. They frequently raided the Parthian empire and the Caucasian provinces of the Roman Empire. In the Vologeses inscription[17] one can read that Vologeses I, the Parthian king c. AD 51-78, in the 11th year of his reign, battled Kuluk, king of the Alani."

Here is a map of the Alan incursions. It does show some pillaging, or whatever, into northern Italy, but it's similar to the rest of western Europe, and there's nothing in southern Italy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alans#mediaviewer/File:Alani_map.jpg*

Now let's look at the Huns. In that regard, some of the comments in the Avar article bear repeating.
"Such views are mirrored by Csanad Balint. "The ethnogenesis of early medieval peoples of steppe origin cannot be conceived in a single linear fashion due to their great and constant mobility", with no ethnogenetic "point zero", theoretical "proto-people" or proto-language.[13]

The name for a new group of steppe riders was often taken from a repertoire of prestigious names which did not necessarily denote any direct affiliation to or descent from groups of the same name; in the early middle ages, Huns, Avars, Bulgars, and Ogurs, or names connected with -(o)gur (Cutrigurs, Utigurs, Onogurs, etc.), were most important. In the process of name-giving, both perceptions by outsiders and self-designation played a role. These names were also connected with prestigious traditions that directly expressed political pretensions and programmes, and had to be endorsed by success. In the world of the steppe, where agglomerations of groups were rather fluid, it was vital to know how to deal with a newly-emergent power. The symbolical hierarchy of prestige expressed through names provided some orientation for friend and foe alike."

"The Huns were a nomadic people or peoples, who are known to have lived in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia between the 1st century AD and the 7th century. They were first reported living east of the Volga River, in an area that was part of Scythia at the time; the Huns' arrival is associated with the migration westward of a Scythian people, the Alans.[1] They were first mentioned as Hunnoi by Tacitus. In 91 AD, the Huns were said to be living near the Caspian Sea and by about 150 AD had migrated southeast into the Caucasus.[2] By 370 AD, the Huns had established a vast, if short-lived, dominion in Europe.

There is no scholarly consensus on a direct connection between the dominant element of the Xiongnu and that of the Huns.[4] Priscus mentions that the Huns had a language of their own; little of it has survived and its relationships have been the subject of debate for centuries. Numerous other languages were spoken within the Hun Empire, including Gothic (East Germanic). Their main military technique was mounted archery.

Their descendants, or successors with similar names, are recorded by neighbouring populations to the south, east and west as having occupied parts of Eastern Europe and Central Asia approximately from the 4th century to the 6th century. Variants of the Hun name are recorded in the Caucasus until the early 8th century.

Contemporary literary sources do not have a clear consensus of the Hun origins. The Huns seem to "suddenly appear", first mentioned during an attack on the Alans, who are generally connected to the River Don (Tanais). Scholarship from the early 20th century literature connected the sudden and apparently devastating Hun appearance as a predatory migration from the more easterly parts of the steppe, i.e. Central Asia.

More recent theories view the nomadic confederacies, such as the Huns, as the formation of several different cultural, political and linguistic entities that could dissolve as quickly as they formed, entailing a process of ethnogenesis.[8][9][10] A group of "warrior" horse-nomads would conquer and/or be joined by other warrior groups throughout western Eurasia, and in turn extracted tribute over a territory that included other social and ethnic groups, including sedentary agricultural peoples. In steppe society, clans could forge new alliances and subservience by incorporating other clans, creating a new common ancestral lineage descended from an early heroic leader. Thus, one cannot expect to find a clear origin. "All we can say safely," says Walter Pohl, "is that the name Huns, in late antiquity (4th century), described prestigious ruling groups of steppe warriors."[9]

This is the Hunnic empire at its height.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/43/Huns_empire.png

In 451, Attila's forces entered Gaul, accumulating contingents from the Franks, Goths and Burgundian tribes en route. Once in Gaul, the Huns first attacked Metz, then his armies continued westwards, passing both Paris and Troyes to lay siege to Orléans.

Many Huns were employed as mercenaries by both East and West Romans and by the Goths. Uldin, the first Hun known by name,[15] headed a group of Huns and Alans fighting against Radagaisus in defense of Italy.

Leading his horde across the Alps and into Northern Italy, he sacked and razed the cities of Aquileia, Vicetia, Verona, Brixia, Bergamum and Milan. Hoping to avoid the sack of Rome, Emperor Valentinian III sent three envoys, the high civilian officers Gennadius Avienus and Trigetius, as well as Pope Leo I, who met Attila at Mincio in the vicinity of Mantua, and obtained from him the promise that he would withdraw from Italy and negotiate peace with the emperor.

That tangential reference is the only one that I can find with regard to the Huns, and it applies only to northern Italy, and involves only a battle and some raiding.

So, if you want to leave out the Mongols, go ahead for now. There's plenty of "eastern" "Iranic" ancestry pumping into Russia, the Slavic areas, central Hungary, and the Balkans without them.

Ed.*There is a little offshoot after much traveling into Sicily.
 
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So, we’re going to have to look elsewhere for the source of any heightened “Iranic” or “West Asian” gene flow into Southern Italy.

I think it’s highly problematic, by the way, to take the figures in the Dodecad runs, for example, as any precise estimation. In those runs, even the Northern Italians have quite a bit more than the Spaniards, for example, yet here, when we have actual ancient genomes, the Northern Italians and the Spaniards have the same amount of "blue", which while not necessarily the exact same thing, is highly suggestive. It remains to be seen what percentage the southern Italians actually have…too bad they weren’t included in this run. Still, as I said, it certainly didn’t come from these migrations that you mentioned.

Btw, I hope I don't come across as hectoring you about all this, or trying to "pound a nail into a coffin". It's just that as we're going to be thinking about and talking about the Iron Age as well as Bronze Age migrations in the coming weeks and months, it's as well to get it clear where these people settled and therefore had their most important genetic impact.


Now turning to your formulation about the “blue bar”. If we go with the tweets coming out about the upcoming papers on Corded Ware and Samarra, I think it’s pretty clear that both the “orange” component on this admixture chart and the blue component probably have some ANE, and I would guess the orange component has more . However, how can the “blue bar” be seen as anything but highly EEF? I don’t put too much stock on the various calculators for Near Easterners, but many people do, and they are “highly” EEF even if there are other elements that have shifted them from being precisely like the farmers who first set sail for Europe.


As for the Baltics, perhaps it’s my fault, but I don’t get your point precisely. How do you know that the ANE that was present in the Mesolithic Scandinavian hunters is the same ANE that is present in Baltic populations today? What if that was a small outlier group that died out? I think it’s a pretty good bet that some of it hung around, but we don’t know that yet. What would prevent the proportions in the Baltics today from stemming from the particular mix that arrived there from further south? I don't necessarily think that the "Indo-European" groups were necessarily uniform from north to south.


As for the eastward pull of the Caucasus and Asia Minor, the excerpts I have posted show that these Iranic groups had much more influence in those areas than even in eastern Europe and the Balkans, so I think the explanation is still valid.


We also don’t know how “eastern” these eastern HG’s were. If they were heavily ANE they might indeed plot more "eastern" in comparison to WHG and EEF.


Finally, it’s pretty clear from mtDna lineages that the “farmer” component in a lot of eastern Europe contains a much larger percentage of "eastern" types than those that can be attributed to LBK and Cardial. I don't see why hypothesizing that some of it came with Iron Age migrations is so outlandish.

Ed. I think it's informative to look at the "blue bloc" in a population like the Tuscans. It's much less than the amount present in the Russians, less than in most Hungarians and Romanians, about the same as in the Ukrainians, and pretty close to the amount in the Belorussians. Even about half the French seem to have about the same amount. (As I said, the North Italian and Spanish levels on this run are about equal, the French are variable but some are a little less, and the Orcadians less again, not to mention the Basques and the Sardinians, of course.) So, did some of it bleed down from northern Italy and increase a bit from perhaps some elite migration from Anatolia in the Bronze Age? But then, if there is an appreciable increase in southern Italy (we don't know how much using these ancient samples), where did it come from? Was there some movement of some more "blue" shifted peoples during the Copper and Bronze Ages? During the Iron Age, the only at all large folk type migrations into the south were from Greece, but where did they get it? Did it seep down from the Balkans? Were the Dorians involved? There is some documentation that the Dorians did have a presence in Sicily.

Wouldn't it be a kick if the so-called "Nordic" invaders of Greece turn out to have had a large "Iranic" component in them? One more surprise if that's the case.

I think there are still a lot of open questions here.

Ed. Just a note to add that Otzi on some of the old Dodecad runs had a bit of "Caucasus". Was the composition of the Indo-Europeans different depending on their north/south position along the front? If that was the case, were the Bronze Age people (and maybe Copper Age peoples before them) who went into southern Europe slightly different than the ones who went north? Maybe more J2a1?
 
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In this regard I searched this site for the discussion about the "Thracian" late Iron Age sample, K8. In that discussion, Sile published some admixture results which were apparently produced by Genetiker. These are the Dodecad K7 results for K8:
K7b

  • 46.44% Atlantic_Baltic
  • 36.25% West_Asian
  • 17.30% Southern
  • 0.00% African
  • 0.00% East_Asian
  • 0.00% Siberian
  • 0.00% South_Asian
Ed. The attachment is drawn from Figure 10 of the supplement, not Figure 4 of the body of the paper. The link is now correct.

Regarding his results, they look like a Lezgian with Ukrainian admixture (Ukrainian admixed because he tends more towards Lezgin direction).
Lezgin

  • Atlantic Baltic 24.90%
  • West Asian 56.70%
  • Southern 13.90%


Ukrainian
  • Atlantic Baltic 74.80%
  • West Asian 14.50%
  • Southern 7.8%
 
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Regarding his results, they look like a Ukrainian admixed Adygei sample (Ukrainian admixed because they tend more towards Adygei direction).
Adygei

  • Atlantic Baltic 23.40%
  • West Asian 52.50%
  • Southern 18.70%


Ukrainian
  • Atlantic Baltic 74.80%
  • West Asian 14.50%
  • Southern 7.8%

Thanks. As I said, I recognize that there was some degree of contamination in this sample, but given what we see with IR1, I doubt it was all that contaminated. This kind of result makes perfect sense.
 
Angela I edited my post because it seems Lezgin does fit better.

Contamination can cause weird results like Austranesian or SSA admixture but with what should it be contaminated to give more West Asia if it is a well documented part of ANE and reaches higher levels in that samples than any possible Balkanian individual might have.
 
Angela I edited my post because it seems Lezgin does fit better.

Contamination can cause weird results like Austranesian or SSA admixture but with what should it be contaminated to give more West Asia if it is a well documented part of ANE and reaches higher levels in that samples than any possible Balkanian individual might have.

Interesting. Wasn't Dienekes chasing the Lezghins for a while in his runs?
 
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That's not the only reason. The mere lack of EEF also causes an eastward shift. Balts for instance appear east of Orcadians, but not because they have more ANE (they don't, when divided by the WHG amount), but because they have less EEF.
The PCA plot looks quite nice because it mostly represents approximately the three main populations from Lazaridis' et al paper, which still are easy enough to fit into a two-dimension plot.
First, as you noticed yourself, the admixtures are just approximated on PCA plot. Second point is that, if you find lower EEF admixture it automatically increases other admixture in whole genome. If lower EEF doesn't increase ANE or WHG then we can deduct that there is one more, or few more admixtures in play in PCA. In case of Balts versus Orcadians, there is 4th (or more) admixture in play, the unknown admixture which pulls Balts to the east, or pulls Orcadians west.

Lower EEF might also result in pull straight north if only WHG increases and ANE and other eastern admixtures are constant. Increased African admixtures might result in pull south-west like in Beduins. If one admixture decreases, some other admixture(s) MUST increase.
 
First, as you noticed yourself, the admixtures are just approximated on PCA plot. Second point is that, if you find lower EEF admixture it automatically increases other admixture in whole genome. If lower EEF doesn't increase ANE or WHG then we can deduct that there is one more, or few more admixtures in play in PCA. In case of Balts versus Orcadians, there is 4th (or more) admixture in play, the unknown admixture which pulls Balts to the east, or pulls Orcadians west.

Lower EEF might also result in pull straight north if only WHG increases and ANE and other eastern admixtures are constant. Increased African admixtures might result in pull south-west like in Beduins. If one admixture decreases, some other admixture(s) MUST increase.

By the last sentence you disprove your initial statement about a 4th admixture necessary for the more north-eastern shift of Balts. In fact just adding more ANE and WHG to Orcadians (or BR1&2) would already do the job, because it MUST reduce EEF.

Getting again more down-to-earth: What I meant is that you can draw a straight line from Sardinians to Lithuanians and you'll find BR1&2 and Orcadians situating at this line. Coincidentally their positions at that line correspond to their EEF values:
Lith.: 0.364
Orc.: 0.457
Sard.: 0.817

I wonder whether this tells us something.
Since there is enough EEF in all these populations available to sacrifice in favour of ANE+WHG, I don't think there is a significant 4th admixture in Lithuanians necessary. Afterall, I never saw such exotic admixtures like Siberian or East-Asian for Lithuanians in any admixture analysis. You also might remember this map for asian admixture, where there is none in Lithuanians:
East-Asian-admixture.jpg

@Angela: Draw a straight line from Sardinians to Nogays, and you'll find Bulgarians, Tuscans and IR1 about at the same line in between. This is what I meant. Regarding Italian history I'm a nobody, I'm mostly looking at admixtue numbers. You know much more about Italy and I won't argue.
Regarding mongol invasions into east-europe, I know all this. But look at the map above, if it is correct, then there are not many genetic traces left.
 
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We can then turn to the Alans and the Huns:
.
.
.
That tangential reference is the only one that I can find with regard to the Huns, and it applies only to northern Italy, and involves only a battle and some raiding.

So, if you want to leave out the Mongols, go ahead for now. There's plenty of "eastern" "Iranic" ancestry pumping into Russia, the Slavic areas, central Hungary, and the Balkans without them.

Ed.*There is a little offshoot after much traveling into Sicily.

Thank you, but I don't know why you are telling me all this. I have only two questions:
1. How much mongol genetic traces are still in Europe?
2. I know about iranic admixture in slavs, some medieval historians even equal Antes and Slavs. But why are Russians relatively close to Lithuanians, Hungarians and other Europeans, while being still distant from Caucasians and even IR1? Note that PCA projections often diminish distances, but never create false distances out of nothing, so this distance must be real. Also note that in other PCA plots Russians appear close to Finns. Significant Iranic, Caucasian, IR1-like, Near-eastern, whatever, I can not be more specific at the moment admixtue, is visible mostly in Balkans, especially Bulgaria and Romania, which are distant from Russians.

I'm just describing what I see. You are welcome to make historical interpretations.
 
El Horsto:mad:Angela: Draw a straight line from Sardinians to Nogays, and you'll find Bulgarians, Tuscans and IR1 about at the same line in between. This is what I meant. Regarding Italian history I'm a nobody, I'm mostly looking at admixtue numbers. You know much more about Italy and I won't argue.
Regarding asian invasions into east-europe, I know all this. But look at the map above, if it is correct, then there are not many genetic traces left
.

Who's talking about East Asians? These are admixed people who are probably predominantly of Central Asian ancestry and/or very eastern hunter gatherer ancestry and an eastern type of EEF. Oh, and they have a lot of ANE probably.


Thank you, but I don't know why you are telling me all this. I have only two questions:
1. How much mongol genetic traces are still in Europe?
2. I know about iranic admixture in slavs, some medieval historians even equal Antes and Slavs. But why are Russians relatively close to Lithuanians, Hungarians and other Europeans, while being still distant from Caucasians and even IR1? Note that PCA projections often diminish distances, but never create false distances out of nothing, so this distance must be real. Also note that in other PCA plots Russians appear close to Finns. Significant Iranic (Caucasian, IR1-like, Near-eastern, once can not be more specific at the moment) admixtue is visible only in Balkans, especially Bulgaria and Romania.

I'm just describing what I see. You are welcome to make historical interpretations.

Who is talking about the Mongols? I said I was leaving them out. You are raising things that aren't part of the discussion. For the other steppe groups, the quotes explain how they were amorphous ever shifting ethnicities. As for the Russians, isn't that sample the one from the far northwest? Of course they'd be relatively close to Finns. The ones in the path would be the Ukrainians.

I also don't get how you can say that there is no influence in Ukraine, or Hungary, etc. etc. That IR1 sample has a huge chunk of "eastern" blue EEF. (The Bronze Age groups had some of it too.) That's the only kind of EEF the north eastern Europeans possess. It's not the green "western" Cardial, LBK type, so they had to get it from people who got it in the same place that IR1 did.

Look, maybe we'll just have to agree to disagree about this. I just think the influence from the east (whether "West Asia" or a "Caucasus" shifted EEF and a portion of Central Asian-heavy in ANE) can be seen all the way through Europe. Obviously, where it blended with already EEF heavy people, the final "mix" is going to look different than if it blended with people who had proportionally more WHG. I also don't see anything in these Iron Age Migrations that explains higher levels in southern Italians, (which you brought up) unless it went from the Balkans into Greece and from there into southern Italy. Who knows, did the Sea Peoples add their little bit? Or, as I said, perhaps the Indo-Europeans differed in composition even in the Bronze Age depending on whether they were from the north Pontic Caspian steppe or the southern Pontic Caspian steppe.

I'm hopeful that the papers will make things a little clearer. I'm not married to this analysis. It's too murky right now for any kind of certainty, so I'd be fine with whatever answer turns out to be correct.

I suppose I'd just say, however, that I'm afraid genetics, i.e. admixture percentages, PCA's whatever, cannot be interpreted in a vacuum. History and archaeology have to be part of the equation.
 
By the last sentence you disprove your initial statement about a 4th admixture necessary for the more north-eastern shift of Balts. In fact just adding more ANE and WHG to Orcadians (or BR1&2) would already do the job, because it MUST reduce EEF.
If they have same ANE level, as you mentioned, how one can be more eastern than the other?

I wonder whether this tells us something.
Since there is enough EEF in all these populations available to sacrifice in favour of ANE+WHG, I don't think there is a significant 4th admixture in Lithuanians necessary. Afterall, I never saw such exotic admixtures like Siberian or East-Asian for Lithuanians in any admixture analysis. You also might remember this map for asian admixture, where there is none in Lithuanians:
View attachment 6796
This admixture can also pull samples to the east on the PCA plot. ANE is a main one, I believe, but there could be few minor ones.

Thanks for the map, this East Asian admixture can fully explain why Turkey is pulled much farther east than the rest of Near East. I guess, the invasion of Turks.
The East Europe could have gotten it from Huns, Mongols and Tatars.
 

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