In ex YU things were pretty good while country had high economic growth. But when the economy began to fall communists tried to cover up the situation. However, it was not possible, and nationalists and extremists have began to chafe. Economic decline was the trigger for extremisms. But Yugoslav federation can be good school for important lecturers how system can functioning and have results under certain conditions.
Germans have good economic situation and extremists have no chance. However in some other countries situation is more difficult.
It is clear that in this conditions some changes in Eurozone are necessary. What is needed is stronger leadership, better control and mechanisms including new institutions. Monetary union is not enough, possible banking and fiscal union are path. Banking union is necessary to enable the financial sector to support growth. Fiscal union is necessary to ensure that fiscal policies are fully aligned with the requirements of single currency. And it cannot be enough. Maybe long term solution is political union, creating European federation (what is much larger system than ex Yugoslav federation).
Sirius
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I believe that a great people as the Greek are, will have a good future, sooner or later.
PS.
(Hi, everyone... I am new in the forum)
PS.
(Hi, everyone... I am new in the forum)
ElHorsto
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Sure, but euro politicians are 90% in the 'yes' camp.
Angela
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I hold no brief for the loons in Athens with their posters of Mao and Karl Marx on the wall, but their actions have exposed what some people have known for years: the Eurozone was flawed from its inception.
It's either a case of a complete failure to foresee consequences, and a lack of understanding of the economic realities of some of the constituent governments on the part of the people who created it, or...it's been a rigged shell game for years.
Let's assume for the moment that it wasn't stupidity. If that's the case, it's all about markets. Promote a Eurozone and a single currency under the guise of European "unity" when you never wanted real unity at all, and just wanted to lower trade barriers, and create a common currency so that you could more easily flood other countries with your goods, and make their goods more expensive in non-European markets. Let countries into the Eurozone even if you have to let them cook the books, and not just because you want to keep them out of the hands of the Russians, but because it's another market. When countries lose jobs because their exports are now too expensive, loan them money which they can then use to create government jobs or for pensions so that people still have Euros to buy your goods. Extend maturities so the interest piles up and up so that even if they default you've actually already been paid your principal many times over. Continue to give the bailouts so that these countries can continue to buy your products. Then cry about how none of it is your fault.
Is that better or worse than a case of a lot of supposedly intelligent people, economists a lot of them, having absolutely no clue as to the clear and foreseeable consequences of their actions? Why was it only some British leaders who didn't drink the kool-aid and who saw the dangers?
Maybe it really was cluelessness and not a desire to economically dominate Europe no matter what happened to other countries. What else could explain the refusal to write off part of the debt?
The Wall Street Journal sees it, and they're no loony leftists.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB12204705985553474620604581090363281823134
"That the creditors are now governments rather than banks will likely cushion the financial market’s reaction to Sunday’s vote. But one lesson of history is that interest reductions and extended maturities have seldom, if ever, been enough to resolve a debt crisis.
Having studied debt defaults in the 1930s of governments with official creditors and the 1980s of governments with private creditors, Ms. Reinhart concluded that the eurozone’s “extend-and-pretend” strategy never cuts it.
The “restructuring to end all restructurings” always required creditors to take a loss on the face value of their debts, she said. That means explicit losses, sooner or later, for other eurozone taxpayers.
The question in Greece is: How much?"
A poster in the comments section who's obviously worked in the financial sector:
"I remember working at a large bank during the 1980s debt crisis. The banks took the hit and did so quickly with massive write-offs. I think 1986 and 1987 were the big years. Citibanjk was especially hard hit. Then they all moved on.
The European creditors would do well to do the same."
It's clear to anyone who can do elementary arithmetic that a country of 11 million can never repay this debt.
This article is also interesting:
http://www.businessinsider.com/greece-referendum-result-and-the-meaning-of-debt-2015-7
As was pointed out in the article, "Before the referendum was ever held, The IMF's own assessment of Greek debt, states: "Coming on top of the very high existing debt, these new financing needs render the debt dynamics unsustainable ..."
Yet they wouldn't write off any of the debt? This kind of rigidity of thinking has no business in business to coin a phrase. It's not supposed to be personal. I think either they've come to believe their own propaganda, or they've so inflamed their own populaces that now they don't know how to back down.
It's as if everyone has forgotten how capitalism is supposed to work. When you issue loans, it's a RISK, as the article points out.
"There is another key fact that the Greeks are keenly aware of (but that everyone else has forgotten). This debt was initially owed to private-investment banks, such as Goldman Sachs. But the IMF and the European Central Bank (ECB) made the suicidal decision to let those private banks transfer that debt to EU institutions and the IMF to "rescue" Greece. As Business Insider reported back in April, former ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet insisted that the debt transfer take place:
The ECB president "blew up," according to one attendee. "Trichet said, 'We are an economic and monetary union, and there must be no debt restructuring!'" this person recalled
Had Trichet made the opposite decision — and left the Greek debt with Goldman et al — then Sunday's vote would be a footnote rather than a headline in history. "Goldman Sachs takes a bath on Greek debt." Who cares? Goldman shareholders and clients, surely. But it would not have triggered a crisis at the heart of the EU."
It should be noted that Goldman had to eat half the debt, but they should have lost it all.
I've been saying for years on this forum and to anyone who would listen that the Euro and the Eurozone has been a disaster for a lot of European countries. Nothing that has happened has changed my mind. The entire set up was flawed, and the deck was stacked against certain countries. Their own stupid leaders and their refusal to adopt market reforms did the rest.
[/LEFT]
See: The Euro was a big mistake and Greece is paying for it.
http://www.vox.com/2015/6/30/8868973/euro-greece-crisis-mista
It's either a case of a complete failure to foresee consequences, and a lack of understanding of the economic realities of some of the constituent governments on the part of the people who created it, or...it's been a rigged shell game for years.
Let's assume for the moment that it wasn't stupidity. If that's the case, it's all about markets. Promote a Eurozone and a single currency under the guise of European "unity" when you never wanted real unity at all, and just wanted to lower trade barriers, and create a common currency so that you could more easily flood other countries with your goods, and make their goods more expensive in non-European markets. Let countries into the Eurozone even if you have to let them cook the books, and not just because you want to keep them out of the hands of the Russians, but because it's another market. When countries lose jobs because their exports are now too expensive, loan them money which they can then use to create government jobs or for pensions so that people still have Euros to buy your goods. Extend maturities so the interest piles up and up so that even if they default you've actually already been paid your principal many times over. Continue to give the bailouts so that these countries can continue to buy your products. Then cry about how none of it is your fault.
Is that better or worse than a case of a lot of supposedly intelligent people, economists a lot of them, having absolutely no clue as to the clear and foreseeable consequences of their actions? Why was it only some British leaders who didn't drink the kool-aid and who saw the dangers?
Maybe it really was cluelessness and not a desire to economically dominate Europe no matter what happened to other countries. What else could explain the refusal to write off part of the debt?
The Wall Street Journal sees it, and they're no loony leftists.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB12204705985553474620604581090363281823134
"That the creditors are now governments rather than banks will likely cushion the financial market’s reaction to Sunday’s vote. But one lesson of history is that interest reductions and extended maturities have seldom, if ever, been enough to resolve a debt crisis.
Having studied debt defaults in the 1930s of governments with official creditors and the 1980s of governments with private creditors, Ms. Reinhart concluded that the eurozone’s “extend-and-pretend” strategy never cuts it.
The “restructuring to end all restructurings” always required creditors to take a loss on the face value of their debts, she said. That means explicit losses, sooner or later, for other eurozone taxpayers.
The question in Greece is: How much?"
A poster in the comments section who's obviously worked in the financial sector:
"I remember working at a large bank during the 1980s debt crisis. The banks took the hit and did so quickly with massive write-offs. I think 1986 and 1987 were the big years. Citibanjk was especially hard hit. Then they all moved on.
The European creditors would do well to do the same."
It's clear to anyone who can do elementary arithmetic that a country of 11 million can never repay this debt.
This article is also interesting:
http://www.businessinsider.com/greece-referendum-result-and-the-meaning-of-debt-2015-7
As was pointed out in the article, "Before the referendum was ever held, The IMF's own assessment of Greek debt, states: "Coming on top of the very high existing debt, these new financing needs render the debt dynamics unsustainable ..."
Yet they wouldn't write off any of the debt? This kind of rigidity of thinking has no business in business to coin a phrase. It's not supposed to be personal. I think either they've come to believe their own propaganda, or they've so inflamed their own populaces that now they don't know how to back down.
It's as if everyone has forgotten how capitalism is supposed to work. When you issue loans, it's a RISK, as the article points out.
"There is another key fact that the Greeks are keenly aware of (but that everyone else has forgotten). This debt was initially owed to private-investment banks, such as Goldman Sachs. But the IMF and the European Central Bank (ECB) made the suicidal decision to let those private banks transfer that debt to EU institutions and the IMF to "rescue" Greece. As Business Insider reported back in April, former ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet insisted that the debt transfer take place:
The ECB president "blew up," according to one attendee. "Trichet said, 'We are an economic and monetary union, and there must be no debt restructuring!'" this person recalled
Had Trichet made the opposite decision — and left the Greek debt with Goldman et al — then Sunday's vote would be a footnote rather than a headline in history. "Goldman Sachs takes a bath on Greek debt." Who cares? Goldman shareholders and clients, surely. But it would not have triggered a crisis at the heart of the EU."
It should be noted that Goldman had to eat half the debt, but they should have lost it all.
I've been saying for years on this forum and to anyone who would listen that the Euro and the Eurozone has been a disaster for a lot of European countries. Nothing that has happened has changed my mind. The entire set up was flawed, and the deck was stacked against certain countries. Their own stupid leaders and their refusal to adopt market reforms did the rest.
[/LEFT]
See: The Euro was a big mistake and Greece is paying for it.
http://www.vox.com/2015/6/30/8868973/euro-greece-crisis-mista
LeBrok
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Welcome to Eupedia Sirius.I believe that a great people as the Greek are, will have a good future, sooner or later.
PS.
(Hi, everyone... I am new in the forum)
bicicleur 2
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ex YU could not survive economic crisis
Germany can survive an economic crisis and prosper. It is not by coincidence that Germany have a good economic situation, it is something Germans created themselves.
So what changes are needed? Does all Europe have to apply the German system?
Well it seems obvious Greek - and other European - people don't want it. At the same time they think they are entitled to the same prosperity like the Germans.
So I think a unified Europe is utopia.
Now the Greek parliament has accepted the Tsipras plan. At the same time it shows how divided Greece is about this. There are several dissidents in Tsipras own party Syriza.
I thing the EU Eurozone might accept Tsipras plan - we'll know by monday.
But I'm not optimistic about the future. I expect Greece to take only half measures. I think within 5 or 10 years this history will repeat itself.
ElHorsto
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For now it looks like Tsipras came under big pressure (media, press campaign, ...) so that he tilt. He is willing to break his promises from the elections and to ignore the referendum result. It is most straightforward to assume that this was the reason for Varoufakis' preemtive resignation, smart guy that he is. Yes, the drama and delayed filing of insolvency probably will continue for more years.
Sile
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When will the Greek people tell Tsipras they vote out of the EU, he is playing with fire..............Molotov cocktails, here we go
ElHorsto
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Or eventually Golden Dawn will win elections.
ElHorsto
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I would kindly disagree. These 'loonies' were elected because of the braindead austerity and delayed filing of insolvency. It was so easily predictable that it makes be almost believe it was a plan where Syriza is part of it. Most historians agree that the pointless austerity of Reichskanzler Brüning paved the way for the nazis. This can still happen anywhere else, not only in Europe. It only depends on the extent of suffering.
Last edited:
Kardu
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So called "extremism" (usually defined from the centrist liberal standpoint) does not necessarily imply bad economic situation.
Angela
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I was referring to the reports that the government is investigating and harassing opposition people, El Horsto. It's typical of a far left regime as much as of a far right regime. This is Europe's history for the last more than 100 years; lurching from one extreme to the other. Britain is the only country that has managed to keep somewhat of an even keel.
They are loonies and incompetents because all they're doing, effectively, is saying "We're not going to take this anymore." We want to keep paying all the government employees who are our political cronies, and keep paying all the pensions. The fact that money can't just be printed, but must be backed by value which is produced seems to be a foreign concept to them. I've had the same problem with my children, but they were children, and they grew out of it. This Greek government has no plan for an orderly exit from the Euro, no plan for market oriented economic reforms, no plan for restructuring their economy, nothing, only a desire for the money to keep falling from the sky to pay for everything. Now, after precipitating this whole crisis, there are indications they may fold like a house of cards. It's absolutely criminal behavior.
That doesn't mean that I hold with any of this clap-trap that it's because they're lazy or choose to live in a poor country. Has anyone ever been to Greece? Where are the rich, productive flat fields of north/central Europe? Where are the nice coal reserves? Or the oil and natural gas? How would Scotland be doing without them? Greece, like Italy, can't even build nuclear reactors for power because they're sitting on fault lines. There's either a singular lack of knowledge in the EU about the challenges some European countries face, or a willful blindness.
It is extraordinarily difficult to create a prosperous economy when you have to import not only your food, but all the natural resources to use in factories, and also the fuel to power them. Meanwhile, as, for example, with Italy, which has relied upon ingenuity and design and a reputation for high quality goods to add "value" to the raw materials it has to import, the fact that the Euro makes its goods so expensive has been killing them. Add to that the fact that countries like China, which pays their workers coolie wages and provides no benefits, is mass-producing junk that imitates the real thing, and guess what, people are starting to be happy with the junk.
Do most people in some parts of Europe really not understand that one of the reasons for making early retirement and pensions so attractive was so that young people could actually get one of the scarce jobs available? The fact that who got them was dependent on party cronyism and corruption is a whole other issue.So is the fact that the package may have been too attractive. Even with all of that there is 25% youth unemployment in some of these countries. Ever wonder why the railroads, for example, have so many unnecessary employees, making them totally insolvent? It's to provide jobs. Leftist ideology doesn't help. You can't run a prosperous business if you can't fire incompetent people. You can't guarantee people lifetime secure jobs. You can't smother the growth of business by excessive paper work and regulation. You have to offer incentives to companies and people to set up shop in your country and produce wealth. You can't tax your way to prosperity. Look at Hollande. Tax the rich at 90% and what happens? Capital flees and your revenues go down. How many times does it have to happen before people get it? So, the ideology, the corruption, just make a bad situation even worse.
If I also hear one more time about how hard some people in Europe work, I may barf. I've taken a look at hours worked per year, and you're all pikers compared to the American worker. We've also carried you in terms of defense for the last 50 years. Start paying for your own and let's see how you compare then.
You might actually be on your own pretty soon, depending on our own political trajectory, and we may wind up faltering economically because, in my opinion, we've been led by an empty suit for the last almost seven years, and our own loony left is busily trying to ensure that we too adopt the failed policies that are ravaging some countries in Europe. Greece's economy is the size of our state of South Carolina. Wait till California falls if you want to see turmoil in markets, or when our trillion dollar debt falls due.
As to how counter-productive overly stringent austerity measures can be to an economy struggling to get out of a depression, as well as the dire political and social consequences, I totally agree with you.
Sorry, El Horsto, this rant wasn't directed at you. I'm out of this thread and discussing this matter. There's just such rampant stupidity and hypocrisy on all sides that it's just infuriating.
Maleth
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This is only the introduction to the Drama. We will just have an intermission and the crescendo's are yet to arrive. Please note that Tsipras during his speech before the vote in parliament said that his battle is not over. I will leave it up to you to decipher to what that means but it means a great deal.
ElHorsto
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I see. I'm still hesitant to believe everything what these journalists claim, as they can be part of certain campaigns for particular interests. Note that Greece is owned by a few families, and ask yourself whether they support the current government.
That's because Britain was (and still is?) an empire. An empire is an empire because it has vassals to whom it can export it's problems. Germany was no empire, and it went bankrupt many times. That's why Hitler actually adored Britain, he was jealous.
We print money all the time, it's called credit expansion, and nowadays we switched to blatant "quantitative easing". I'm no advocate of this, just saying.
I see no rant. All I see is a mix of various vague thoughts which are all somewhat true, but your main point is to blame the new government for all of this.
Did Syriza create the debt problem, or is it the result of the debt problem because of loonies before them?
Of course, people in any country can stay in current state if they deny to accept and implement change. But no eternally.
Linking for bad Status quo can only making things worse, changes sooner or later, will happen in one way or another.
All Europe can learn from German and other successful economies in Euro zone, and why not, they are role models and leaders.
If systemic change and introducing new institutions can solve situation for better, why it is utopia. I think something different, we speak about novelty, something new to be built, term utopia is different, it is society which posses perfect qualities.
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In a sense that we can't build perfect things. Is plight of Greece different from plight of Detroit? They are both in single currency unions and problems stem from bad economy and unbalanced budgets.
Exactly. The tough decisions on EU part should have been taken in 2008. However letting it bankrupt back then could have pulled the world into deeper recession. From economic and markets perspective, EU can afford Greek failure now more than in the past.
As I said above, it was a bad time to let Greece go. There was also a philosophy to make sure no big companies fail to drag everybody into a depression. Either it was a right or wrong philosophy, Greece was in similar predicament. Situation was very eerie back then and nobody was brave enough to go into unknown. From economic point of view it might be a good time for EU to make a decision about Greece now. From Greeks point of view, they might have been better going bankrupt good few years ago.
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For that reason I can't say definitely that Greece should go bankrupt and start afresh. Without good economic reform they would have been in same difficult place in 20 years.
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Guys tomorrow I will give you some views that will never seen
Bicycler Elhorsto and Angela got good to the point
Elhorsto +1 for you understand the geopolitical and geostrategical, instead the stupid voices I heard many times for 'hard working'
I gave you 1 date 21/04/1967 did you find it?
now I give you Pythia plan 1 2 3 no4 just did not happened, Σχεδιο Πυθια or the 'PRISM" for Greece as alternative
and a photo
connect them, to see who Angela (Mercel not Eupedia's) hates more,
Schauble has lost, οhe realized it yesterday,
Angela realized it 1 weak before, and act correct,
he will gather his minions to one camp in this Euroworking Group to defence
so to have little losses
and soon will surender,
Or Schauble HAS WON, HE MANAGE TO SAVE GOLDMAN SACHS, AND SAVE WESTERN WORLD AND USA FROM A TOTAL COLLAPSE, but not Germany, which stays in shrinking 'obey'dience,
although Deutsch must search the strange roll of a young guy with glasses, I think he was half Japan or Korean.
and why when Merkel goes to Serbia and Albania and promises EU entrance, same time Hungary is Building wall to 'secure borders'
Piketty won,
who is he? Tomas Piketty
and for those screamers who say Greece will go with Russia,
better overpass the ex-Communist effect,
and tell us, most Europe 'cools by the GazProm products' does that mean all Europe are with Russia??????
The roll of Greece,
you said it as pivotal, it is more, it is so dark, yet so bright,
served all, from USA to this person i can not remember his name, from Schauble to EU,
yet still untamed
I must said i find one 'smart' German, It is you, you have seen things behind, here and in Ukraine's case,
Maybe we should write a thread on how EU saved Goldman Sachs through Greek crisis,
@ Lebrok
the far left in Greece are 2 parties,
1 is the Russian
2 is the USA
radical Left as light left before are the American party,
Do not worry, CIA controls them fro 1960's, Robin ex CIA headquarters was in Greece to organise and finance them, :innocent:
Yes the above is 'Global Conspiracy' and not proven etc etc, only one photo from 1972 and this...
and I deny it my shelf :grin:
Bicycler Elhorsto and Angela got good to the point
Elhorsto +1 for you understand the geopolitical and geostrategical, instead the stupid voices I heard many times for 'hard working'
I gave you 1 date 21/04/1967 did you find it?
now I give you Pythia plan 1 2 3 no4 just did not happened, Σχεδιο Πυθια or the 'PRISM" for Greece as alternative
and a photo
connect them, to see who Angela (Mercel not Eupedia's) hates more,
Schauble has lost, οhe realized it yesterday,
Angela realized it 1 weak before, and act correct,
he will gather his minions to one camp in this Euroworking Group to defence
so to have little lossesand soon will surender,
Or Schauble HAS WON, HE MANAGE TO SAVE GOLDMAN SACHS, AND SAVE WESTERN WORLD AND USA FROM A TOTAL COLLAPSE, but not Germany, which stays in shrinking 'obey'dience,
although Deutsch
must search the strange roll of a young guy with glasses, I think he was half Japan or Korean.and why when Merkel goes to Serbia and Albania and promises EU entrance, same time Hungary is Building wall to 'secure borders'
Piketty won,
who is he? Tomas Piketty
and for those screamers who say Greece will go with Russia,
better overpass the ex-Communist effect,
and tell us, most Europe 'cools by the GazProm products' does that mean all Europe are with Russia??????
The roll of Greece,
you said it as pivotal, it is more, it is so dark, yet so bright,
served all, from USA to this person i can not remember his name, from Schauble to EU,
yet still untamed
I must said i find one 'smart' German, It is you, you have seen things behind, here and in Ukraine's case,
Maybe we should write a thread on how EU saved Goldman Sachs through Greek crisis,
@ Lebrok
the far left
in Greece are 2 parties,1 is the Russian
2 is the USA
radical Left as light left before are the American party,
Do not worry, CIA controls them fro 1960's, Robin ex CIA headquarters was in Greece to organise and finance them, :innocent:
Yes the above is 'Global
Conspiracy' and not proven etc etc, only one photo from 1972 and this...and I deny it my shelf :grin:
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