Politics Future of Greece

[LeBrok]

Five years ago I recommended that Greeks should go bankrupt and start afresh. They could have been out of recession by now, growing their economy outside of Eurozone.
I'm surprise this farce is still going on.
Let's see how Greeks vote today. I have a feeling they will vote for staying in European Union and Eurozone, sort of "safer option".

However, no matter if they vote for staying, they might not be able to pay their mountain of debt. Either some debt needs to be forgiven or suspended, or eventually Greeks will go bankrupt and forced to leave Eurozone.

There might be another question. If Eurozone country goes bankrupt, does it need to leave Eurozone?

 

[Angela]

Five years ago I recommended that Greeks should go bankrupt and start afresh. They could have been out of recession by now, growing their economy outside of Eurozone.
I'm surprise this farce is still going on.
Let's see how Greeks vote today. I have a feeling they will vote for staying in European Union and Eurozone, sort of "safer option".

However, no matter if they vote for staying, they might not be able to pay their mountain of debt. Either some debt needs to be forgiven or suspended, or eventually Greeks will go bankrupt and forced to leave Eurozone.

There might be another question. If Eurozone country goes bankrupt, does it need to leave Eurozone?

I agree. I think it would be best for them to just default and get it over with. Does anyone know who holds the majority of their debt, by the way? Do the American investment banks still hold a chunk of it? If they do, serves them right if they lose their money since their mortgage backed securities, which they knew were junk, helped create this mess. Payback is a *****.



Interestingly, Puerto Rico seems to be on the same course.

 

[Maleth]

Economy is not my forte, but I believe that Greece has falsified accounts to be able to meet the criteria needed to join the Eurozone which of course would have a ripple effect and spelled trouble from the beginning with spending MUCH more then it could afford. The taxation system is pretty much outdated and lots of unofficial (undeclared) business going on. If this was tackled seriously it would not be in the positions it is today. Up to a few years ago Greece had a robust economy and when I keep hearing that it seems that the most vulnerable people with low pensions and lower income brackets have to pay for this mess it just make me sick. What about a fair taxation for people who can afford more and would hardly feel the impact? Something is very very wrong.

ed voted stay in eurozone

 

[Angela]

Economy is not my forte, but I believe that Greece has falsified accounts to be able to meet the criteria needed to join the Eurozone which of course would have a ripple effect and spelled trouble from the beginning with spending MUCH more then it could afford. The taxation system is pretty much outdated and lots of unofficial (undeclared) business going on. If this was tackled seriously it would not be in the positions it is today. Up to a few years ago Greece had a robust economy and when I keep hearing that it seems that the most vulnerable people with low pensions and lower income brackets have to pay for this mess it just make me sick. What about a fair taxation for people who can afford more and would hardly feel the impact? Something is very very wrong.

The Greek government is very much to blame as well, Maleth; I never meant to imply otherwise. It's just that the investment banks that sold them that junk are culpable as well, and I have no sympathy for them if they lose their investment. I'm no believer in bailouts for banks; it's just welfare for big corporations. You make decisions like that, you eat it.

From my experience, it's always the people with the most to lose who pay for the chicanery of their leaders. It makes me sick, too, believe me.

Now that they're in this mess, though, hopefully the people in charge will bite the bullet and do the best they can.

 

[Maleth]

Now that they're in this mess, though, hopefully the people in charge will bite the bullet and do the best they can.

My hope too. Maybe this was needed. It would be the third bail out in six years. There need to be some kind of limit.

 

[Garrick]

Five years ago I recommended that Greeks should go bankrupt and start afresh. They could have been out of recession by now, growing their economy outside of Eurozone.
I'm surprise this farce is still going on.
Let's see how Greeks vote today. I have a feeling they will vote for staying in European Union and Eurozone, sort of "safer option".

However, no matter if they vote for staying, they might not be able to pay their mountain of debt. Either some debt needs to be forgiven or suspended, or eventually Greeks will go bankrupt and forced to leave Eurozone.

There might be another question. If Eurozone country goes bankrupt, does it need to leave Eurozone?

I think Eurozone will find ways to survive and makes progress. It is big idea that one currency is common for European countries. In future more countries will be in Eurozone than what is today.

 

[Yetos]

yo guys

I am Greek and I do not worry,

soon Balkans will burn again,
so do not worry,

if not EU then Cosco and allies is here, if not Cosco, BRICS, if not BRICKS, ISIS,

there is a book from 1952 by ισιδωρος Ποσδαγλης an economist, which say about that crisis and why it is be,
so I do not worry,
I just cleaned and polished my guns,
war is in East mediterenean and balkans again,
At Aimos peninsula Hephaistos light his vulk again

Do not afraid for us,


there are 4 models in oil drilling countries,

1) Norway and Scotland style
2) Arabic countries and Nigeria and religious wars
3) USA Russia
4) Latin American style.

our future is either 2 either 4 type,
we know it,
so what is going to happen let it happen,
400 years we survived Ottomans and other 800 Romans
maybe we deserve such faith, cause we learn to live like ΜΗΔEIΖΕΙΝ

Personally I deny any kind of depth, and I will not go to vote at referendum, cause i want it to fail and be unfaithfull reaching 50% of population, but ....

when it will have clear skies
when February comes,
to take my gun
and my beutifull cartridge belt
.....................................
.....................................
to make mothers without sons
and women without men
to make many many children
to cry with out mothers


Bankers will not take our carbonhydrogens so cheap!!!!!
neither our sea neither our mountains,
neither our ports, neither our roads
but most of all our souls


I HOPE NOTHING
I FEAR NOTHING
I AM FREE
Ν kazantzakis

 

[bicicleur 2]

Greece falsified their figures with the aid of Goldman Sachs in order to meet the requirements to get acces to the Euro
Euro-politicians were aware of that but looked the other way
When they were in the Euro Greece had acces to easy money by loans
With that money the Greek government hired 140.000 extra people in the government adminsitration which they didn't need and who were totaly unproductive
They were simply distributing the easy money in order to keep everyone happy and get re-elected.
One example : on the island Zakynthos with 30.000 inhabitants 1.500 got a monthly pay because they were 'blind'
Among these 1.500 almost all taxi drivers of the island were included.
In 2008 there was financial crisis, easy money was finished for Greece.
But banks came in because Greece was paying high interest to keep up the financing.
Greece didn't get bankrupt because Europe had to save these banks who had taken unjustified risks.
Moreover Europe was afraid of spillover to ohter countries like Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland who were in danger too.
So the banks had to accept a haircut from Greece and Europe created the ESFS who took over the worhtless Greek government bonds.
Now we are 7 years later. The other European countries who's finances were shaky in 2008 have restructured and are much more healthy today.
But in Greece nothing has changed. Still so many people in government administration. Still so much corruption and abuse of social security. (allthough the Zakhyntos abuse was stopped ; it had become to blatent)
It is even worse, because in order to keep financing all this Greece has killed it's own economy.
It is unable to ever pay back it's debts.
Giving more money won't help, it's a bottomless pit.
Blaim the banks? Yes, they were vultures.
Some of them were sanctioned, but few.
But the real responsables are politicians.
Rest assured, none of them will ever get sanctioned.

The IMF is a large creditor to Greece. But the main is ESFS mentioned above, which is essentialy the European taxpayer.
Via ESFS and others, Belgium with 11 million inhabitants is estimated to lose 11 billion Euro.
East European taxpayers also have to help pay for the pensions payed to the Greek people while most of them get a pension which is far less than Greek pensions.
How can you justify this?
Spain and Portugal are still having tough times getting their economy healthy again, but slow recovery seems to have started.
How can you explain these countries they should pay for the mess in Greece?

Nobody can save Greece unless Greece starts to save itself.
It looks like some of them need a very hard lesson before they'll do that.
It's called a 'reality check'.
I'm sorry for them, but options are few.
And the road to recovery will be very long.

 

[Kardu]

With all these some European leaders urging/demanding that Greek government cancel the referendum shows how much in reality democracy and choice of people is valued...

 

[Maleth]

With all these some European leaders urging/demanding that Greek government cancel the referendum shows how much in reality democracy and choice of people is valued...

Angela Merkel said that Greece has the legitimate right to hold a referendum over its outstanding state debt.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150701/1024081023.html#ixzz3efw4iiqZ

....and anyhow no one is sure what this referendum is going to solve. Either all just realistic solutions are needed a Yes or a No vote will bring no magic solutions

 

[Yetos]

@ bicicleur

good and correct analysis
I see you are aware of the problem
yet there are some few details more,
Like the demands from WW2 from Germany
which all countries took except Greece,
giving it as a ' mistaken gift' to Adenauer, throught a strange diplomatic word, proposed by our 'Allies' USA in the text signed by King Pavlos
It is estimated 600 000 000 000 E

 

[Garrick]

@ bicicleur

good and correct analysis
I see you are aware of the problem
yet there are some few details more,
Like the demands from WW2 from Germany
which all countries took except Greece,
giving it as a ' mistaken gift' to Adenauer, throught a strange diplomatic word, proposed by our 'Allies' USA in the text signed by King Pavlos
It is estimated 600 000 000 000 E

Yetos
No matter in which way this crisis will finish, I think that Greece has bright future.

I had many Greek friends, some of them lived in Serbia, and all of them I know as very industrious people. Who thinks that Greeks are lazy he or she watch media and doesn't know reality. Politicians generally in world are more or less same, and they are prone for corruption, but in which country politicians are "flowers".

Why I believe in Greece? Greece has very smart and capable people, it is the most important resource. Greece has very good position in Mediterranean, all sea paths lead to Greece and via Balkans and Middle Europe is extraordinary link toward the heart of industry of Europe, Germany. Greece has a lot of friendly countries in the world which can help to exits from difficulties. Greece can attract large investments about which some others can only dream. Greece has specific soul, which no one country has, which makes it unique and gives strength and Greece have wisdom forged centuries.

 

[bicicleur 2]

@ bicicleur

good and correct analysis
I see you are aware of the problem
yet there are some few details more,
Like the demands from WW2 from Germany
which all countries took except Greece,
giving it as a ' mistaken gift' to Adenauer, throught a strange diplomatic word, proposed by our 'Allies' USA in the text signed by King Pavlos
It is estimated 600 000 000 000 E

I don't know the details about that.
But I guess you mean the aid Germany got from Marshall plan?
Germany got aid several years after the end of WW II

And Germany was rebuilt in the first place by the Germans themselves.
Of course they wouldn't have been able to do so if they didn't get help.

If Greece starts to save itself by restructering themselves, I'm certain they'll get the aid they need.
But the main efforts has te be done by Greece itself.
And the longer they wait the worse it will get.

I guess Tsipras himself is smart enough to realize that what he promises to Greece is utopia.
But I don't expect anything else from politicians.
And Greeks who are smart enough to realise this are held hostage by Greeks who prefer to believe fairy tales.

 

[bicicleur 2]

With all these some European leaders urging/demanding that Greek government cancel the referendum shows how much in reality democracy and choice of people is valued...

They have the right to do so, but what's the point of such referenda?
They don't have the right to decide whether their creditors should give them more credit.
And by organising this referendum Varaoufakis and Tsipras made clear they have no authority to make a deal with the creditors till after the referendum.
That's why Europe has suspended negotiations till after the referendum.

Tsipras anounced the refendum in Greece while Varoufakis was at the same time negotiating with the European finance ministers. Is this serious? It looks more like playing games to stay in power.

 

[Kardu]

They have the right to do so, but what's the point of such referenda?
They don't have the right to decide whether their creditors should give them more credit.
And by organising this referendum Varaoufakis and Tsipras made clear they have no authority to make a deal with the creditors till after the referendum.
That's why Europe has suspended negotiations till after the referendum.

Tsipras anounced the refendum in Greece while Varoufakis was at the same time negotiating with the European finance ministers. Is this serious? It looks more like playing games to stay in power.

First of it's the matter of principle. When Western modern liberal-democratic establishment and media buzzes non-stop in everybody ears around the world about how wonderful liberal-democracy is then they should not try to silence people's voice.

I am no advocate of lefties but the Greek government wants the support of the population for the crucial decision, so that they share the responcibility of all the consequences to come.

Merkel maybe has said that, but there are other leaders who call for the cancelation of the referendum.

 

[LeBrok]

I agree. I think it would be best for them to just default and get it over with. Does anyone know who holds the majority of their debt, by the way? Do the American investment banks still hold a chunk of it? If they do, serves them right if they lose their money since their mortgage backed securities, which they knew were junk, helped create this mess. Payback is a *****.



Interestingly, Puerto Rico seems to be on the same course.

The problem with Greeks going their own way is, whether thy can create an advantage out of it. Advantage due to debt cancellation, the fresh start. If they continue mismanage they economy, if they can revive economy, if they can't find capital to invest in their economy, they will quickly go back into the same debt trap.
I'm not sure if there is enough political will to pull economic miracle out of bankruptcy, however the alternative of staying in Eurozone and paying unbelievable mountain of debt is a better alternative. It is like choosing a lesser evil.

 

[LeBrok]

The IMF is a large creditor to Greece. But the main is ESFS mentioned above, which is essentialy the European taxpayer.
Via ESFS and others, Belgium with 11 million inhabitants is estimated to lose 11 billion Euro.
East European taxpayers also have to help pay for the pensions payed to the Greek people while most of them get a pension which is far less than Greek pensions.
How can you justify this?
Spain and Portugal are still having tough times getting their economy healthy again, but slow recovery seems to have started.
How can you explain these countries they should pay for the mess in Greece?

The easiest way to deal with Greece debt is to print this 400 billion Euro, or whatever it is right now, and give it to lenders, or just enough to keep the lenders alive. In 15 trillion Eruozone economy it won't cause massive inflation. Maybe extra 1 percent for couple of years. However it will produce a precedence of easy way out for other Eurozone countries in financial trouble. What if Italy and Spain will default on their massive debts? The party might be over for Eurozone.
On other hand, if the defaulting is in a size of one country a decade, it will be quite bearable for finances of Eurozone, and the union to continue. Actually it would be unrealistic to consider that all the countries of Eurozone will have perfect economy and finances all the time. Occasional debt default should be built into the system.

 

[LeBrok]

Yetos
No matter in which way this crisis will finish, I think that Greece has bright future.

I had many Greek friends, some of them lived in Serbia, and all of them I know as very industrious people. Who thinks that Greeks are lazy he or she watch media and doesn't know reality. Politicians generally in world are more or less same, and they are prone for corruption, but in which country politicians are "flowers".

Yes, Greeks are very industrious, but not in Greece. They left Greece and run their businesses in other countries. Greek political and economic reality is not good for business. Business people and capital left Greece, and what is left are government workers. Sure I'm exaggerating, but there is some truth in it.
Now smart young people who can speak english and german are leaving Greece, because of lack of work.

Greece has specific soul, which no one country has, which makes it unique and gives strength and Greece have wisdom forged centuries.

I have a feeling that you want Yetos to feel good.

 

[LeBrok]

Merkel maybe has said that, but there are other leaders who call for the cancelation of the referendum.

Can you share few names with us?
I only heard voices saying that referendum is too late and therefore will not be legally binding, therefore inconsequential. To call for cancellation requires involvement in Greek political process. I don't think that any of foreign leaders is in a position or have political interest to call for cancellation. I think your paraphrasing of foreign leaders was too liberal, and nobody literally called for cancellation of Greek referendum.

 

[LeBrok]

Bankers will not take our carbonhydrogens so cheap!!!!!
neither our sea neither our mountains,
neither our ports, neither our roads
but most of all our souls


I HOPE NOTHING
I FEAR NOTHING
I AM FREE
Ν kazantzakis

I think Buddhism goes well with this philosophy.