Very important for the whole debate is Pannonia and the recent results from a presentation of a study done on Hungarian remains showed just one single carrier of E for the whole period, but a total dominance of R1b, R1a and I. This means that in the early to middle Bronze Age, E-V13 was most likely only present at very low levels, presumably from a nearby centre. From the Balkans so far no post-steppe E-V13 was retrieved either before the Late Bronze Age to Early Iron Age. So going by the current evidence, we must assume that the E-V13 centre was therefore above the Balkan and Pannonian sphere, which leaves primarily the East Alpine or North Carpathian region as the best candidates.
The problem of the East Alpine zone is that there was no large scale penetration of the Eastern and Southern Balkans from there, which would explain the later V13 centre in Thracians. The best source group is therefore a Southern Eastern Urnfield group, probably based in or around Slovakia, associated with the Gava horizon, being a formative element especially of the Thracians, but also for the Illyrians and Pannonians, secondarily for Greeks (primarily Dorians?) and Celts (Hallstatt infiltration with the spread of Iron metal work).
Associated sites would be Teleac (destroyed fortification with early Iron production) and other Carpathian, Pannonian and Balkan settlements with early Iron production, like especially Hisar Hill:
It is estimated that the metallurgy center in the settlement was operational at least between 1350 BC and 1100 BC and the remains have been found in the layer up to2 m (6 ft 7 in) thick. Iron ore, amorphous iron and vast amount of slag were discovered, but also remains of the grinding stones for crushing the ore (pogača), furnaces, charcoal piles, blowers and metal objects.
Stojić hypothesizes that the development of metallurgy confirms the theory of the Dorian Invasion from the northern route. The discovery of iron and bronze objects from the 12th century BC, coincides with the invasion. The Dorians lived in the basin of the South Morava and the surrounding Central Balkans regions in the 13th century and, producing the iron weapons, with ease conquered the southern people in Greece.
The Dorians are sometimes said to have had Thraco-Illyrian inflluences.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hisar_Hill
More about the Gava horizon on in the Carpatho-Balkan zone, especially with referene to Hisar:
The Gava horizon, with channeled pottery, dated to a developed Late Bronze Age, was not documented in graves of the Brnjica group, but it certainly existed, as channeled pottery and typical bronzes from the Late Bronze Age, socketed axes, tweezers, pins etc., from the Hisar settlement testify.
http://www.austriaca.at/0xc1aa5576_0x002debf3.pdf
The best association is with the tribal movemen of the Thracians in the widest sense (Dacians and Getae included) and Illyrians, Dorians, plus a penetration via iron working specialists, traders and warriors in the Celtic sphere.
One historical group very clearly associated with E-V13 would be the Thraco-Illyrian Triballi:
View attachment 12377
Going further back in time, the connection to the Urnfield horizon and Gava could be Lengyel and Sopot possibly, for which we have proof of E-L618.
Lengyel pottery was found in western Hungary, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Austria, Poland, and in the Sopot culture of the northern parts of Former Yugoslavia. Influence in pottery styles is found even further afield, in parts of Germany and Switzerland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lengyel_culture
The results of extensive investigations in Slovakia have shed considerable light on the problems of the emergence, development and cultural and chronological interconnections of the Neolithic Lengyel culture. This includes the economy and social structure of its bearers.
Typological methods make it easy to demonstrate a local origin for the Lengyel culture, defining clearly its innovative component which was introduced from the south, from the sphere of the Vinča culture (Vinča B2/C1), then in the process of transformation, carried to the territory of the nascent Lengyel culture by the Sopot culture (S. Dimitrijevič 1968; Pav?k 1981a; Kalicz 1988). The Lengyel culture emerged on the base of the ?eliezovce cultural group which gave birth to the earliest stage of the former culture ? Proto-Lengyel ? under impulses from and with participation of the Sopot culture. Such a fusion of local and foreign elements may well be demonstrated in pottery, especially in the development of its shapes and decoration. This process is accompanied by a major paradox: continuous development of pottery is contradicted by the discontinuity in settlement sites. Not a single site excavated either in Slovakia or in Hungary has yielded a settlement with material both from the last stage of the ?eliezovce group and from the early stages of the Lengyel culture (the B?ňa-Bicske group, Lu?ianky, Lengyel I) which could constitute evidence for local evolution.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/jour...-in-slovakia/EA1989CA6B404BB2938F405A1543B830
The possible vector could have been Neolithic Anatolia -> Vinca -> Sopot -> Lengyel -> ??? -> Gava -> Bosut-Basarabi.
Between Lengyel and Gava is a big gap on the one hand, but on the other, there could have been local continuity into the South Eastern Urnfield period, leading directly to Gava:
http://www.angelfire.com/sk3/quality/Stone_Age_and_Bronze_Age.html
This would bring E1b into the Urnfield horizon, probably even beyond Gava, but with it, being in the centre of the accumulation of V13. If that scenario would be true, it would be similar as with R1a, first moving out of the steppe, just to come back again. In the case of E1b just from the Balkans (Vinca) to the Carpathians and back again.
Looking at the yDNA clades, the timing fits as well for a LBA-EIA expansion from one single centre. Very clear cases are E-Z5017 and E-Z5018. If you look where most of the spread and diversification of their subclades happened, its between 1.600 to 600 BC.
https://www.yfull.com/tree/E-Z5017/
https://www.yfull.com/tree/E-Z5018/
For many of its subclades a date like 800-400 BC was the last point in time where highly diversified clades had a TMRCA, after that they spread out to very different regions of Europe and beyond.
Anther clear case is
https://www.yfull.com/tree/E-Y16729/
Being split into a basal Balkan branch, one Northern European and one Near Eastern. With more samples a trail will be found and more diversity, pointing again to the LBA-EIA original spread and most likely with Greeks into the Near East during Hellenistic times.
In general, most clades under E-CTS1273 seem to repeat this pattern, at least it seems so to me, especially if considering the range of the estimates and some intermediate samples lacking, it just fits:
https://www.yfull.com/tree/E-CTS1273/
The time up to 2000 BC was like a hiatus, "nothing happened", new clades might have emerged, but they didn't split or distribute on a grander scale. Then between 2.000-300 BC, with a peak between 1.600-600 BC, "most of the action took place". This really implies to me, that the major lineages of E-V13 lived together in one place up to about 2.000 BC, and dispersed on a grand scale in time from Urnfield to Hallstatt.
Another aspect of this is that this big "jumps", huge distances between samples from one clade also date, for the most part, to this time frame. Its not from before or later as much, like from Roman or late historical times. Of course, such tribal and individual migrations did occur, but most of the spread and splits date to the LBA-EIA.
Decisive is that Pannonia and the later Illyrian zone seems to have been largely free of any significant portion of E-V13 by the Early to Middle Bronze Age. Without an association of Urnfield with the E-V13 expansion and frequency in the pre-Roman and Roman Iron Age, that pattern is almost impossible to explain, unless we assume a large scale infiltration almost exclusively in Roman times. Much more likely is that the former core zone of Illyrian and Thracian was to the North, associated with the Southern Urnfield horizon, and spread along pretty much the same pathways as the later (Southern) Slavs did, through Pannonia and around the Carpathians, down to the Balkans. In Pannonia most of the E-V13 was later replaced by the various migrations from the steppe, the Germanics and Slavs, in the more mountainous regions of the Balkans it could largely keep its position, even though its numbers seem to have been reduced there as well, with some exceptions.
Once we get LBA and EIA samples, which at times can be hard, because of the use of cremation for the burial rite, we will see for sure. But what else can be deduced from the fact that before Urnfield the region had practically zero E-V13 and was dominated by R1b, R1a and I, but after the Urnfield expansion and the Gava horizon the whole region was packed with E-V13? And looking at sites like Teleac, the best associated is with Iron working specialists (Hallstatt penetration!) and tribes evading Northern pressure, moving down to evade it. Somewhere around Slovakia and the Northern Carpathian region might be a good place to search for E-V13. Also interesting that some early Slavs seem to have had sister clades of V13, like the Viking sample with E-L791 from Gotland.