[TH="class: singleheader, colspan: 2, align: left"]Target: CZE_Early_Slav
Distance: 2.7478% / 0.02747845 | ADC: 0.25x RC
[/TH]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]46.0[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]HUN_MA_Szolad[/TD]
[TD="class: barchartmode1 nonselectable, colspan: 2"][/TD]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]40.2[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]HUN_Avar_Szolad[/TD]
[TD="class: barchartmode1 nonselectable, colspan: 2"][/TD]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]13.8[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]Baltic_EST_BA[/TD]
First I tried to see how Early CZE Slav can be modeled.
Using these on source:
Baltic_LVA_HG,0.1292603,0.1004104,0.1802636,0.1972329,0.1064236,0.0560919,0.0083574,0.0207106,0.0524476,-0.0261394,-0.0046788,-0.0181151,0.0281434,-0.0053759,0.0355759,0.0480141,0.003072,0.0040856,-0.0059236,0.042325,0.0613526,0.0130531,-0.0262979,-0.1110549,0.0095949
DEU_Tollense_BA,0.1249778,0.137198,0.0769703,0.0599811,0.0502246,0.0175142,0.0094946,0.0060229,0.0126395,0.0009478,-0.0061708,-0.0025478,-0.0009811,0.0016239,-0.0020766,0.0029303,0.0019687,0.0030659,0.002803,0.0091044,0.0006239,0.0012861,-0.0034632,-0.0148455,0.0015568
HUN_Avar_Szolad,0.133742,0.12948,0.073727,0.057494,0.0373915,0.029144,0.0094,0.007269,0.004295,-0.018224,-0.001543,-0.006369,0.0102575,0.017753,-0.0138435,0.0007295,0.0002605,0.0034205,0.0055305,0.001313,0,-0.002782,0.010846,-0.0069285,0.001736
HUN_MA_Szolad,0.1268314,0.1386923,0.0474633,0.0296237,0.0347316,0.0087153,0.0026858,0.0034531,0.0025492,0.0060333,-0.0043729,0.0041963,-0.0096947,-0.0066944,0.009859,0.0043755,-0.0015227,0.0006923,0.0054185,0.0022109,0.0027452,0.0040408,0.0003433,0.0085467,-0.0012231
Baltic_EST_BA,0.1321485,0.1213556,0.0992205,0.111662,0.051671,0.040746,0.0158398,0.0204684,-0.0029042,-0.050607,0.0009094,-0.0182389,0.0359462,0.0400344,-0.0180239,0.0018297,0.0103654,-0.000684,-0.0013952,0.0046272,-0.0024957,-0.0062692,0.0106487,-0.017388,0.002359
After that, I added Early Slavic CZE on the Source as well to model modern populations. From reading some of the experts in modeling Slavs, Avar is very important sample. Meanwhile from reading the fora I know tollense like populations + yamnaya is how some ancient Balkans populations can be modeled. Mokrin etc...
Here are the results after adding early Slavic CZE as a component.
[TH="class: singleheader, colspan: 2, align: left"]Target: Belarusian
Distance: 1.3935% / 0.01393459 | ADC: 0.25x RC
[/TH]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]63.2[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]HUN_Avar_Szolad[/TD]
[TD="class: barchartmode1 nonselectable, colspan: 2"][/TD]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]24.6[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]Baltic_EST_BA[/TD]
[TD="class: barchartmode1 nonselectable, colspan: 2"][/TD]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]12.2[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]CZE_Early_Slav[/TD]
[TH="class: singleheader, colspan: 2, align: left"]Target: Serbian
Distance: 3.7958% / 0.03795817 | ADC: 0.25x RC
[/TH]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]66.2[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]HUN_MA_Szolad[/TD]
[TD="class: barchartmode1 nonselectable, colspan: 2"][/TD]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]33.8[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]CZE_Early_Slav[/TD]
[TH="class: singleheader, colspan: 2, align: left"]Target: Italian_Lombardy
Distance: 6.1244% / 0.06124430 | ADC: 0.25x RC
[/TH]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]100.0[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]HUN_MA_Szolad[/TD]
[TH="class: singleheader, colspan: 2, align: left"]Target: Italian_Tuscany
Distance: 6.9928% / 0.06992756 | ADC: 0.25x RC
[/TH]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]100.0[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]HUN_MA_Szolad[/TD]
[TH="class: singleheader, colspan: 2, align: left"]Target: Greek_Central_Macedonia
Distance: 7.0482% / 0.07048239 | ADC: 0.25x RC
[/TH]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]100.0[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]HUN_MA_Szolad[/TD]
[TH="class: singleheader, colspan: 2, align: left"]Target: Albanian
Distance: 7.1215% / 0.07121452 | ADC: 0.25x RC
[/TH]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]100.0[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]HUN_MA_Szolad[/TD]
[TH="class: singleheader, colspan: 2, align: left"]Target: CZE_Early_Slav
Distance: 2.7478% / 0.02747845 | ADC: 0.25x RC
[/TH]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]46.0[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]HUN_MA_Szolad[/TD]
[TD="class: barchartmode1 nonselectable, colspan: 2"][/TD]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]40.2[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]HUN_Avar_Szolad[/TD]
[TD="class: barchartmode1 nonselectable, colspan: 2"][/TD]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]13.8[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]Baltic_EST_BA[/TD]
[TH="class: singleheader, colspan: 2, align: left"]Target: Belarusian
Distance: 1.3935% / 0.01393459 | ADC: 0.25x RC
[/TH]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]63.2[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]HUN_Avar_Szolad[/TD]
[TD="class: barchartmode1 nonselectable, colspan: 2"][/TD]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]24.6[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]Baltic_EST_BA[/TD]
[TD="class: barchartmode1 nonselectable, colspan: 2"][/TD]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]12.2[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]CZE_Early_Slav[/TD]
If I in 5 minutes can come up with a better model than the published Danubian limes paper... what does that say? Either mediocrity, or agendas at work.
[TH="class: singleheader, colspan: 2, align: left"]Target: Belarusian
Distance: 1.3935% / 0.01393459 | ADC: 0.25x RC
[/TH]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]63.2[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]HUN_Avar_Szolad[/TD]
[TD="class: barchartmode1 nonselectable, colspan: 2"][/TD]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]24.6[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]Baltic_EST_BA[/TD]
[TD="class: barchartmode1 nonselectable, colspan: 2"][/TD]
[TD="class: singleleftcolumn, align: right"]12.2[/TD]
[TD="class: singlerightcolumn"]CZE_Early_Slav[/TD]
Edit: Now of course this model is not optimized for best fit, just to see relationships, and to point out how the Danubian limes paper is decieving.
Further adding BGR_IA or Log02 to the source, improves both the comparative power and fit of the model.
If anyone wants to play with it:
https://g25vahaduo.genetics.ovh/G25ancient-averages-scaled.htm
Source:Baltic_LVA_HG,0.1292603,0.1004104,0.1802636,0.1972329,0.1064236,0.0560919,0.0083574,0.0207106,0.0524476,-0.0261394,-0.0046788,-0.0181151,0.0281434,-0.0053759,0.0355759,0.0480141,0.003072,0.0040856,-0.0059236,0.042325,0.0613526,0.0130531,-0.0262979,-0.1110549,0.0095949
DEU_Tollense_BA,0.1249778,0.137198,0.0769703,0.0599811,0.0502246,0.0175142,0.0094946,0.0060229,0.0126395,0.0009478,-0.0061708,-0.0025478,-0.0009811,0.0016239,-0.0020766,0.0029303,0.0019687,0.0030659,0.002803,0.0091044,0.0006239,0.0012861,-0.0034632,-0.0148455,0.0015568
HUN_Avar_Szolad,0.133742,0.12948,0.073727,0.057494,0.0373915,0.029144,0.0094,0.007269,0.004295,-0.018224,-0.001543,-0.006369,0.0102575,0.017753,-0.0138435,0.0007295,0.0002605,0.0034205,0.0055305,0.001313,0,-0.002782,0.010846,-0.0069285,0.001736
HUN_MA_Szolad,0.1268314,0.1386923,0.0474633,0.0296237,0.0347316,0.0087153,0.0026858,0.0034531,0.0025492,0.0060333,-0.0043729,0.0041963,-0.0096947,-0.0066944,0.009859,0.0043755,-0.0015227,0.0006923,0.0054185,0.0022109,0.0027452,0.0040408,0.0003433,0.0085467,-0.0012231
Baltic_EST_BA,0.1321485,0.1213556,0.0992205,0.111662,0.051671,0.040746,0.0158398,0.0204684,-0.0029042,-0.050607,0.0009094,-0.0182389,0.0359462,0.0400344,-0.0180239,0.0018297,0.0103654,-0.000684,-0.0013952,0.0046272,-0.0024957,-0.0062692,0.0106487,-0.017388,0.002359
CZE_Early_Slav,0.12862,0.129988,0.068259,0.046835,0.02739,0.013387,0.007285,0.014076,-0.001841,-0.018406,-0.000812,-0.004346,0.003717,0.007156,-0.010993,-0.003182,0.011604,-0.002027,-0.002388,-0.004752,0.005615,0.000618,0.001725,-0.000964,-0.006706
BGR_IA,0.126344,0.157407,0.007165,-0.051034,0.029852,-0.02259,0.00423,-0.001385,0.007772,0.032074,-0.001461,0.005695,-0.013974,-0.003028,-0.015065,-0.001458,0.01369,0.006968,0.006285,-0.014757,-0.006239,0.004699,-0.007888,0.003494,-0.008861
Target:
Any modern populations you like which can be lifted from the source tab of this
https://g25vahaduo.genetics.ovh/G25modern-scaled-averages.htm :
In my models I used these pops as target.
Albanian,0.1181863,0.1417511,0.0155562,-0.0158808,0.0251586,-0.0074138,0.0033683,0.0018077,0.0006648,0.0161279,0.0011097,0.0015486,-0.0070986,0.0066059,-0.019295,-0.0041544,0.0081273,0.0014992,0.0082962,-0.0059402,-0.0055629,0.0007212,0.0024238,0.0021991,-0.0025248
Greek_Central_Macedonia,0.1194473,0.142473,0.0157725,-0.016492,0.0213432,-0.0035601,0.0020321,1e-07,0.0008782,0.0120812,0.0009934,0.0018424,-0.0014429,0.0070025,-0.016957,-0.0005459,0.0098095,8.94e-05,0.0050649,-0.0035531,-0.0078319,0.0015057,0.0032408,0.0005529,-0.0007256
Italian_Tuscany,0.1186036,0.1487413,0.0136014,-0.0204997,0.0261587,-0.0090546,-0.00047,-0.0013845,0.0074991,0.0238972,-0.0002273,0.0054552,-0.0118631,-0.0045965,-0.0023797,-0.0002917,0.0040332,0.0004815,0.0038463,-0.0023929,-0.0012063,0.0024647,-0.0010436,0.00388,-0.0015885
Italian_Lombardy,0.1245224,0.147861,0.0279822,-0.0137598,0.0327446,-0.007753,0.000658,0,0.0103898,0.0299232,-0.0025008,0.008932,-0.0143606,-0.0047066,-0.0008686,-0.0078758,-0.0083448,0.0017738,0.0034442,-0.004102,-0.002246,0.0012366,-0.0006656,0.0030602,0.0008382
Serbian,0.1273334,0.137229,0.040024,0.0148299,0.0314974,0.0045957,0.0048738,0.006672,-0.0011737,-7.9e-06,-0.0022946,-0.001251,0.0034128,0.012434,-0.0128875,-0.0008358,0.0040476,0.0005894,0.0043011,-0.0024468,-0.0083168,-0.0017151,0.0048925,0.000372,-0.0020097
Czech,0.1311592,0.1318625,0.0604843,0.0472574,0.038658,0.0189217,0.0063451,0.0086623,0.0046724,-0.0088874,-0.0016862,-0.0038965,0.0060493,0.011772,0.0017435,0.0009995,-0.0006419,-0.0001462,0.0035679,0.0028956,-0.001267,-0.0001617,0.0065132,0.0039302,0.0015935
Belarusian,0.1322625,0.1236239,0.0750219,0.0695957,0.0402331,0.0265691,0.0107321,0.0133226,-0.0002727,-0.0246017,-0.0026957,-0.0092119,0.0193259,0.0272309,-0.0112647,-0.0038009,-0.0009647,0.0003717,0.0041397,-0.0010504,-0.0042342,-0.0046081,0.0077235,-0.0068601,0.0006946